Quote:
Originally Posted by BigHairedAristocrat
However, if we are to look at the whole point of this discussion - first round quarterbacks - you will find far more than 50% of first round qb picks fail to meet "franchise QB" qualification. If you want a franchise QB, two first round picks is not too much to give up. youre more likely to get a franchise QB trading two first round picks for a proven vet than you are taking your chances in the draft. Whether Cutler is a franchise QB or not is debatable...
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Well, if we clearly define what we mean by franchise QB, it wouldn't be so debatable, we'd have an answer.
Sure, everyone's definition is going to be different, but yours does appear to be "what I think they can become", which isn't particularly helpful to me.
To me, any QB who has five accrued seasons and has started at least three full seasons (48 games) with either progressively improving results or steady-state results in completion percentage, yards per attempt, and TD/INT ratio is a franchise QB. Draft position matters in projections only. Once a guy has 5 full seasons and 48+ games as a starter, doesn't matter whether he was the first overall pick or undrafted.
For example: I don't refer to Ben Roethlisberger as a franchise QB because his production has been so unsteady. If he improves next year, he's definately a franchise QB. If he collapses and costs the Steelers a playoff birth, well then.
Franchise QBs drafted 1st round in the past 10 years include:
Eli Manning
Philip Rivers
Carson Palmer
**David Carr
Chad Pennington
Donovan McNabb
Daunte Culpepper
**Carr techincally qualified by my definition in Houston, but he never played a game as a "franchise QB". He was outsed after his 5th year, which means he loses his title. Tim Couch was nearly the same deal, but his production was a lot more uneven than Carr's.
Essentially about one guy a year, in the first round only. Roethlisberger and Campbell are on the cusp. Cutler and Rogers are two years away, at current levels. Leinart, Quinn, Ryan, and Flacco all have plenty to prove, but should all get here one day.
Franchise QBs drafted after the 1st round, last 10 years include:
Marc Bulger (6th)
Tom Brady (6th)
Drew Brees (2nd)
David Garrard is just two games away from qualifying, abscent another declining season. Matt Schaub is on pace, but needs to stay healthy for the next two years. Kyle Orton is one strong, full year as a starter away. Derek Anderson and Matt Cassel both are two strong years away. Tony Romo is a half season away.
Anyway, that's how I define franchise QB. Even though the 50% figure has historically held, even by my defintion, the franchise QB explosion is coming. Cutler is just one of the many.