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scowan · 08-04-2006, 02:02 PM

Scheed, I heard Gibbs break a schedule down in groups of 4 one time and that seems to be a good way to handle things from a planning point of view. If you think it will take something like 11-5 or 12-4 to win the division (which I think it will) then you have to basically go 3-1 every 4 games.

Looking at the Skins schedule from that point of view, here is how I see it. They will go 3-1 for the 1st four losing only to Dallas on the road. They may go 2-2 for the next 4 because they are at Indy and at the Giants, two tough games. For the next 4 they could have it all together and go 4-0 beating Philly away and Tampa away and taking care of business at home with the Panthers and Falcons. For the final four you have two divisional opponents at home, Philly and N.Y. and two non-playoff teams from last year on the road in the Rams and the Saints. 3-1 or maybe 4-0 with Gibbs great record in December. They would finish 12-4 or better or maybe slip to 11-5 if they lose that road game to Tampa or one at home to the Giants. Philly does not scare me anymore with their terrible WR situation, so 4-2 in the division with loses to Dallas and N.Y. would be a great NFC East record. I don't think last years 5-1 divisional record is going to happen again, but it would be great if it did.

08-04-2006, 02:02 PM	#4
scowan The Starter Join Date: Aug 2005 Location: KY Age: 56 Posts: 1,559	Re: The Fallacy of Strength of Schedule Scheed, I heard Gibbs break a schedule down in groups of 4 one time and that seems to be a good way to handle things from a planning point of view. If you think it will take something like 11-5 or 12-4 to win the division (which I think it will) then you have to basically go 3-1 every 4 games. Looking at the Skins schedule from that point of view, here is how I see it. They will go 3-1 for the 1st four losing only to Dallas on the road. They may go 2-2 for the next 4 because they are at Indy and at the Giants, two tough games. For the next 4 they could have it all together and go 4-0 beating Philly away and Tampa away and taking care of business at home with the Panthers and Falcons. For the final four you have two divisional opponents at home, Philly and N.Y. and two non-playoff teams from last year on the road in the Rams and the Saints. 3-1 or maybe 4-0 with Gibbs great record in December. They would finish 12-4 or better or maybe slip to 11-5 if they lose that road game to Tampa or one at home to the Giants. Philly does not scare me anymore with their terrible WR situation, so 4-2 in the division with loses to Dallas and N.Y. would be a great NFC East record. I don't think last years 5-1 divisional record is going to happen again, but it would be great if it did.