Current projections by 538 for playoffs. Washington 73% after week 14.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...l-predictions/
You can alter the upcoming game sto see how probability changes. No need to restate the obvious but this week is huge. With a win Commanders probability of playoffs jumps to 90% a loss drops them down to 35%. Win 2 of next 3 and it is 98%.