Quote:
Originally Posted by CRedskinsRule
Did you see the stat posted earlier. Of the 22 qb's drafted in the 1st round from 2009 to 2016 ZERO are on their original team.
From 2017 on you have:
Tribulsky(2017, #2) - DUD
Watson (2017,#12)- Star with attitude
Mahones (2017#10) - possibly the next GOAT
Mayfield (2018,#1) - Mixed
Darnold (2018, #3) - DUD
Allen (2018, #7) - Mixed but rising
Rosen (2018, #10) - BUST
Jackson(2018, #32) - Star
Murray (2019, #1) - Rising with ?
Jones (2019,#6) - Mixed
Haskins(2019, #15) - BUST
So depending on how you rank them, out of 11 1st round qb's since 2017
you have
2 to 3 elite (Mahones, Jackson, Watson)
2 to 4 mixed but definitely need time to grow (Mayfield, Allen, Jones, Murray)
3 to 4 busts or duds (Darnold, Tribulsky, Haskins, Rosen)
Drafting a qb, even in the first round is no guarantee - even with good scouting, evaluation and sound FO choices.
Drafting is the solution to ALOT of team issues, but QB talent is best examined on the NFL field of play and if you can get a proven QB it is worth trading for.
That said, the level of proven talent available now dropped significantly with Stafford gone
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That is why you must commit to spending multiple picks over multiple years to find a true franchise QB. This means trading up is generally unwise, though that is how Chiefs got Mahomes, but even then they didn't trade a King's Ransom to move up to #1. They were at #27, they traded that pick, plus a 3rd, plus #1 next year which ended up being #22. Less than many people wanted to give up for Stafford. There is a difference between THE DAN deciding to trade up for a player (RGIII), and pro scouts or competent FOs.
Finally, your analysis is skewed. because it does not consider where all the successful NFL QBs came from. One might draw many conclusions from your analysis, but one is that you don't have to draft in the 1st round, top-15 especially, to find a franchise QB. What separates the booms and busts? How you support and develop a QB is also critical. Does it really matter who the Skins drafted at QB, or the Jags, or Browns, given what dysfunctional messes they have been? Virtually no QB had chance of success, how do you factor that into stats? Teams consistently reach on QBs out of desperation also.
It would be one thing if we were loaded with talent all over our roster and only a QB was missing to contend for SB, but that is NOT this team, not by a LONG shot. We should continue to draft and develop talent, including at QB, and continue targeting QBs in draft we think have franchise-QB potential. This is less glamorous, less immediate gratification than the trading the farm modality all the homers seem to love, but it is the sound approach. So the real question, now that the Rams saved us from ourselves, is what QBs outside the top-4 in the draft would make sense at #19 or in the 2nd round? What QB makes sense later in draft in 5th or 6th round? What 2 QBs should we draft this year early round and late round?