Originally Posted by mooby
As much as I love Joe Gibbs for being the best coach we've ever had, I don't believe the argument that a team can win today in the style that Gibbs won in the 80's is relevant. First of all, Gibbs is a unicorn, in that there is no other coach in history that won 3 SB's with 3 different qb's.
Second of all, the rules of today are more favorable towards teams with elite qb's who put up big numbers.
For reference, let's look at the Super Bowl winners dating back to 2000:
Mahomes, Brady, Foles/Wentz, Brady, P. Manning, Brady, R. Wilson, Flacco, E. Manning, Rodgers, Brees, Roethlisberger, E. Manning, P. Manning, Roethlisberger, Brady, Brady, Gannon, Brady, Dilfer.
Now, let's exclude the GOAT because if the model you're trying to build is duplicating the success of the greatest QB/HC the league has ever seen you're gonna have a bad time. What do we have left?
Mahomes x1 (elite)
Foles/Wentz x1 (obviously a one-off at this point)
P. Manning x2 (elite)
Russ Wilson x1 (another elite HOF-tracking qb, noticing a trend here?)
Flacco x1 (along with Eli, the modern day example of combining above-average with clutch performance and a great D to win a title)
Eli Manning x2 (the formula is above average statistical -aka not elite- + clutch + great d = Super Bowl contender/winner)
Rodgers x1 (elite)
Brees x1 (elite)
Roethlisberger x2 (borderline elite + great d)
Gannon x1 (above average + great d)
Dilfer x1 (game manager + HOF worthy D)
Let's break it down another way:
Elite - Mahomes, Peyton Manning, Russell Wilson, Rodgers, Brees, Roethlisberger = 8 titles (14 if you count Brady, which you should absolutely should because Brady has been elite every year until this year). So that's 14/20 titles.
Game manager to above average statistical combined with a clutch performance here and there and a great defense - 6 titles (Eli Manning x2, Foles/Wentz, Flacco, Gannon, Dilfer)
In conclusion, yeah you can win a title in today's NFL when you combine a great defense with an above-average qb capable of clutch performances, but the odds are lower than finding a stud qb and surrounding him with a quality team (that is still gonna need some clutch performances on top of that). It's incredibly hard to win a title in today's NFL, just ask above-average elite qb's like Deshaun Watson, Matt Ryan, Matthew Stafford, Philip Rivers, Kirk Cousins, Lamar Jackson, Cam Newton, Dak Prescott - all guys who were considered above average/had statistical success at some stage in their careers but have never hoisted a Lombardi).
But the odds are higher if you build a solid team in all 3 aspects and also have a great qb capable of pulling off clutch performances on the NFL's biggest stage. Me personally, our defense (while good) has not achieved elite status -yet- and even if it did I'm not sold that Alex Smith is the guy that you can combine with a great defense to win a title. Alex Smith's biggest strength is not making mistakes/turnovers. He's not a playmaker. He's not gonna razzle/dazzle you on occasion. If the defense has a good day and the running game is functioning, that's good enough to win more often than not. But is he going to bail you out when those other units are having bad days? No. Can he serve as a capable bridge qb until the next long term quy is ready to play? Yes. But that's his ceiling as far as I'm concerned.
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