Philly pre-game
 

[URL="https://www.bleedinggreennation.com/2023/9/27/23892147/eagles-commanders-nfl-week-4-odds-spread-line-betting-gambling-draftkings-sportsbook-game-favored"]Eagles heavily favored to beat the Commanders in Week 4[/URL]

[URL="https://www.espn.com/blog/washington-commanders/post/_/id/43161/commanders-confident-qb-sam-howells-growing-pains-will-lead-to-improvement"]Commanders confident QB Sam Howell's 'growing pains' will lead to improvement[/URL]

Re: Philly pre-game
 

my keys to the game:

Offense

Pass blocking. The offensive line must do better as Howell is getting hit way too much. however i read an article showing that on the 9 sacks that Howell took against Buffalo, 7 times he held the ball for 3 seconds or longer and 2 of them were when he held the ball for over 4 seconds. That, combined with the play of the offensive line is a recipe for disaster! Both have to do MUCH better or Philly is going to punish Howell!! We also need better blocking/chipping from the RB's and the TE's and better overall communication on the offense!!

Play Calling. The play calling in the Buffalo game as abysmal! We averaged 7 yards per carry and still wouldn't run the ball even though we were only down 16 - 0 after 3 quarters. We need to get the running game going and balance out the offense. This will help in pass protection as the defense can't just pin their ears back and rush the passer. We also need to adjust to what the defense was doing better. Buffalo overloaded one side over and over again during that game and we did nothing to stop it. No roll outs in the other direction, no QB runs (which IMO we need to call a few to keep the defense guessing), nothing different to negate the overload. You know its coning again. NFL analysts were talking about it during the preseason as something Washington needed to fix and they have not yet addressed it from what i can see.

Defense

Contained pressure. Not sure what happened against Buffalo, but the defensive line was not getting much pressure at all. Had their heads gotten too big from all the accolades they have been receiving? Not sure, but they need to do a better job of pressuring. And IMO Chase Young was a big part of this while he looked to be getting pressure more than the others it was due to he over perusing and losing containment. That cannot happen against mobile quarterbacks and Hurts is one of the most mobile QB's we will face. The Eagles have both a good offensive line and a very good mobile quarterback, so we have to get pressure with the front 4 and keep containment or we are in for another long day.

Communication in the secondary. This issue seems to rear its head at the beginning of every year. But the communication in the secondary leaves a lot to be desired. Blown coverages seem to be the norm and if we don't fix the communication issues on the back end they will not go away.

Linebacker play. Not sure what can be done about this group. Davis is playing serviceable. Barton has been a big step down and while his stats look ok, he has simply been bad. I would like to see more of Hudson and its time to start seeing what if anything Jabril Cox can add. Call him up!!

Thoughts?!?!

IMO its too much to right on the pass protection side and the Eagles are too good in that area. The Eagles will win 27 - 17.

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Wake me up when we play the Bears.

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[quote=punch it in;1346634]Wake me up when we play the Bears.[/quote]

C'mon.. We beat these guys in Philly last year! I at least expect a much better effort.

Re: Philly pre-game
 

[quote=skinsfan69;1346635]C'mon.. We beat these guys in Philly last year! I at least expect a much better effort.[/quote]

The funny thing is that last year I thought we'd get blown out on MNF when we played Philly. We'll see how they react.

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Bad news …. Eagles are getting better by the week. They know it. Their fans know it. They know what happened last year. It is in Philly. They are going to be hitting on all cylinders this week. It is just the way they are trending. They will not look past us because of last year. It has blood bath written all over it.

Good news…. We play the Bears next!

If we lose to the Eagles and somehow lose to the Bears Ron is getting fired. As well he should. Just a hypothetical. I fully expect us to beat Chicago and hope to hell we beat Philly.

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[url]https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2023/09/24/commanders-bills-loss-reality-check/[/url]

9. Rivera’s teams can respond to blowouts. This was the fifth time in 193 career games that Rivera has lost by 30 or more points. The weeks after the four previous losses, Rivera’s teams went 2-2, and the two losses were both close — a 20-19 defeat to Detroit in 2018 and a 20-16 defeat to Philadelphia in 2021. All this means for Washington in 2023 is that Rivera is capable of getting his team to bounce back for a difficult game next week in Philadelphia.

Re: Philly pre-game
 

I expect EB will be better, and he has to be for us to have a chance this week. If he's better, Howell will be better - put in better positions to succeed based on what we do (and he does) well.

You can run the ball on this team - you just have to stick with it and not get into a position where you HAVE to throw (i.e. down 2+ scores late in the game). I wouldn't suggest AG up the middle too often, but a heavy dose of BRob, some well designed screens, and the occasional over the top to our playmakers will work.

On D - gotta contain Jalen. Can't let him get loose like they did Josh Allen.

It's a winnable game, but they have to come out with a purpose.

Philly pre-game
 

Exactly ^

As far as the plan. It is winnable because any game is winnable. Upsets happen. We have to be pretty much perfect. Especially in the dreaded first quarter.

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I need EB to be better. Bills knew what was coming and defended his scheme well.

Philly pre-game
 

At some point personnel and talent matter and it doesn’t matter if Lombardi is coaching the team. Yes EB and JDR and Ron (whatever the hell he does) all need to be better, but so does our rookie quarterback and roster. I fully expect Sam to learn from last week.

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Our offensive line is flaming hot bags of dogshit. There is no game plan that is going to work for 17 weeks with those bums up there.

Draft an OL with all 7 picks this coming off-season. That's kind of tongue in cheek, but it actually wouldn't be a bad idea. Keep Cosmi and Stromberg, replace everyone else. Burn that room down and rebuild it.

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Philly allowed us to run all over them last yr.. Won't happeb again this week

EAGLES 27
US 20

Re: Philly pre-game
 

[quote=Chico23231;1346649]I need EB to be better. Bills knew what was coming and defended his scheme well.[/quote]

EB may want to re-think his pass happy approach. BR is averaging 4.6 yards a carry, might want to lean on the ground game a bit more. Help protect your young QB.

Re: Philly pre-game
 

[QUOTE=sdskinsfan2001;1346653]Our offensive line is flaming hot bags of dogshit. There is no game plan that is going to work for 17 weeks with those bums up there.

Draft an OL with all 7 picks this coming off-season. That's kind of tongue in cheek, but it actually wouldn't be a bad idea. Keep Cosmi and Stromberg, replace everyone else. Burn that room down and rebuild it.[/QUOTE]


I am simulating mock drafts for 2024since the last draft. It’s just too fun. Usually i go with 3 in the first four picks. Best available T and or G. It is absolutely such a necessity. If Sam doesn’t look like the guy by years end im good with taking maye or Williams if they fall!

Re: Philly pre-game
 

I wonder what Jabril Cox's status is. I was hopeful that we would have received word that he was being elevated from the practice squad by now. Surely he brings more to the table than Mayo...

Re: Philly pre-game
 

Philly is not going to take this lightly and they're going to try to throw everything imaginable at Sam. Unless we get the ball out very fast and have a healthy dose of the run game early, I have a bad feeling about this game. Anything can happen in a division game, but I do not like the trajectories these teams are on. Our D has surrendered 70 points the last two weeks (felt like more), so we all need to stop talking about it being a top 5 or top 10 defense. They have that capability, but it isn't coming together (JDR, some of this is definitely on you). It's a long season, but they wilted against the Bills.

I do think we will see a better effort and game than last week (low bar). But I don't think it will be enough. I think Philly wins this comfortably at home 28-13, and sending us into full blown code-red, trap game, panic mode against Chicago.

Hope I am wrong about all of this.

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I get what you are saying about the defense. Pretty much every aspect of this team can get better, but I don't put a lot on the defense so far. Yes, the Bills scored 37 points, but the 5 turnovers had a lot to do with that. The offense did not help them out - at all.

We just need to run the ball. Josh Jacobs ran 9 times for -2 yards against the Bills. BRob ran 10 times for 70 yards against the Bills. We CAN run the ball, and if we want any chance of winning this game, we will have to.

Re: Philly pre-game
 

[quote=MTK;1346656]EB may want to re-think his pass happy approach. BR is averaging 4.6 yards a carry, might want to lean on the ground game a bit more. Help protect your young QB.[/quote]

couldn't agree more!! Robinson had a 7 ypc average in that game against buffalo . . . why wouldn't you use what was working? or was it working because they weren't using it very much?

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[QUOTE=Chief X_Phackter;1346661]I get what you are saying about the defense. Pretty much every aspect of this team can get better, but I don't put a lot on the defense so far. Yes, the Bills scored 37 points, but the 5 turnovers had a lot to do with that. The offense did not help them out - at all.

We just need to run the ball. Josh Jacobs ran 9 times for -2 yards against the Bills. BRob ran 10 times for 70 yards against the Bills. We CAN run the ball, and if we want any chance of winning this game, we will have to.[/QUOTE]


Yep.

Re: Philly pre-game
 

[QUOTE=Chief X_Phackter;1346658]I wonder what Jabril Cox's status is. I was hopeful that we would have received word that he was being elevated from the practice squad by now. Surely he brings more to the table than Mayo...[/QUOTE]


Brings more to the table than mayo. [emoji23] True in so many ways. And i like Mayo(nnaise). It has no place at the table though really.

Re: Philly pre-game
 

[QUOTE=SkinsGuru;1346662]couldn't agree more!! Robinson had a 7 ypc average in that game against buffalo . . . why wouldn't you use what was working? or was it working because they weren't using it very much?[/QUOTE]


I think there is some definite truth to this. If we kept running Buffalo would have adjusted. Our o line is such a fucking problem. That being said anything is better than 9 sacks. We have lost amazing amounts of yards due to sacks. So run it, quick screen it or if your gonna go deep shotgun and be ready to roll out and throw it away real quick. We cannot try and out offense people. We gotta take what we can get without going backwards- and play defense and win ugly. At least against the good teams.

Re: Philly pre-game
 

Through three games, we're 3rd in the league in yards per rushing attempt. We can run the ball, and the offensive line is a major reason why. You don't average 5 yards per rush with a dogshit line.

I personally think the offensive line has been way over criticized due to the amount of sacks Sam has taken. Of course the sacks that stick out, and the sacks everyone remembers, are the ones that resulted in a TD or safety when Wylie was beaten 1 on 1. However, most analysts I've heard - who actually look at the plays and not the box score - have indicated that the majority of the sacks aren't on the O-line.

Either way it's gotta get cleaned up, and that starts with EB.

Re: Philly pre-game
 

[quote=Chief X_Phackter;1346681]Through three games, we're 3rd in the league in yards per rushing attempt. We can run the ball, and the offensive line is a major reason why. You don't average 5 yards per rush with a dogshit line.

I personally think the offensive line has been way over criticized due to the amount of sacks Sam has taken. Of course the sacks that stick out, and the sacks everyone remembers, are the ones that resulted in a TD or safety when Wylie was beaten 1 on 1. However, most analysts I've heard - who actually look at the plays and not the box score - have indicated that the majority of the sacks aren't on the O-line.

Either way it's gotta get cleaned up, and that starts with EB.[/quote]

Agree with your entire post. Several of those sacks are attributed to Howell holding onto the ball too long, whether he's trying to look for the big play or seeing ghosts.

Finally, just because a line is having issues blocking against the pass doesn't mean they aren't capable of run blocking (this wasn't directed at you, Chief, but to others).

Re: Philly pre-game
 

[quote=Chief X_Phackter;1346681]Through three games, we're 3rd in the league in yards per rushing attempt. We can run the ball, and the offensive line is a major reason why. You don't average 5 yards per rush with a dogshit line.

I personally think the offensive line has been way over criticized due to the amount of sacks Sam has taken. Of course the sacks that stick out, and the sacks everyone remembers, are the ones that resulted in a TD or safety when Wylie was beaten 1 on 1. However, most analysts I've heard - who actually look at the plays and not the box score - have indicated that the majority of the sacks aren't on the O-line.

Either way it's gotta get cleaned up, and that starts with EB.[/quote]

I agree the Oline has been run blocking wayyy better than they are getting credit for !
Pass blocking has been an issue though, yes Howell is responsible for a lot for the sacks, but some of them are just our guys, ie Wylie, getting flat out burnt.

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[quote=MTK;1346656]EB may want to re-think his pass happy approach. BR is averaging 4.6 yards a carry, might want to lean on the ground game a bit more. Help protect your young QB.[/quote]Totally agree. It will set up everything for the offense and rest the defense more. Robinson is the real deal. Howell must get rid of the ball quicker. Would be a massive victory but will be very tough. Hoping Philly overlooks and underestimates Washington in this game.

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The good news is we got Chicago next TNF.. We will need to bounce back after a most likely loss. The Eagles are prob the 3rd best team in the league right now and their OL is insane. I don't see us being able to stop that run game, and Hurts hasn't had a real good game yet, he's due. We are just not there yet to compete with the top tier teams

Re: Philly pre-game
 

Howell needs to throw the ball. But the shitty O-line play is about more than just the sacks. The pocket fucking collapses so fast and across the line, even on pass attempts where he doesn't get sacked. Howell is having normal growing pains, but he has to do them behind a line that can't pass-block for shit. They get fucking worked repeatedly. This is a passing league. We cannot and will not win consistently unless they can magically improve or get replaced next season.

Re: Philly pre-game
 

[QUOTE=sdskinsfan2001;1346692]Howell needs to throw the ball. But the shitty O-line play is about more than just the sacks. The pocket fucking collapses so fast and across the line, even on pass attempts where he doesn't get sacked. Howell is having normal growing pains, but he has to do them behind a line that can't pass-block for shit. They get fucking worked repeatedly. This is a passing league. We cannot and will not win consistently unless they can magically improve or get replaced next season.[/QUOTE]


Yeah and when he’s pressured he just throws the ball all over the place , he has to just eat a sack sometimes.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Re: Philly pre-game
 

[quote=sdskinsfan2001;1346692]Howell needs to throw the ball. But the shitty O-line play is about more than just the sacks. The pocket fucking collapses so fast and across the line, even on pass attempts where he doesn't get sacked. Howell is having normal growing pains, but he has to do them behind a line that can't pass-block for shit. They get fucking worked repeatedly. This is a passing league. We cannot and will not win consistently unless they can magically improve or get replaced next season.[/quote]

I honestly think our pass blocking isn't horrible, our line more fails on run blocking.

Sam really holds the ball much too long, it was a knock on him coming out of NC as well. He needs to get through his progressions faster and dump it when its not there.

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[quote=Chief X_Phackter;1346681]Through three games, we're 3rd in the league in yards per rushing attempt. We can run the ball, and the offensive line is a major reason why. You don't average 5 yards per rush with a dogshit line.

[B]I personally think the offensive line has been way over criticized due to the amount of sacks Sam has taken. Of course the sacks that stick out, and the sacks everyone remembers, are the ones that resulted in a TD or safety when Wylie was beaten 1 on 1. However, most analysts I've heard - who actually look at the plays and not the box score - have indicated that the majority of the sacks aren't on the O-line.[/B]

Either way it's gotta get cleaned up, and that starts with EB.[/quote]

This 100, its Sam

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I don’t have a good feeling about the game … I can see a epic blowout like Phi 52 us 17

If we come out flat and start like the first 3 games then it’s over early .. I would like just to see us keep it close and competitive .. This game will show IF Sam can adjust his play .. if the D can somehow keep us in it .. IF Ron can keep this team from collapsing.. If we lose bad and then get beat by the Bears it will be OVER ..I personally don’t see any way we beat the hated eagles .. hope I’m wrong

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Through three games the O-line is basically middle of the pack:

#16 in Pass Block Win Rate - 55% / Chiefs are #1 in PBWR - 76%

#19 in Run Block Win Rate - 71% / Eagles are #1 in RBWR - 78%

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[quote=Chief X_Phackter;1346699]Through three games the O-line is basically middle of the pack:

#16 in Pass Block Win Rate - 55% / Chiefs are #1 in PBWR - 76%

#19 in Run Block Win Rate - 71% / Eagles are #1 in RBWR - 78%[/quote]

Yeah we are "better" at pass blocking.

The line is middle of the road, its definitely serviceable.

Sam needs to get rid of the ball quicker

Re: Philly pre-game
 

It really just boils down to new OC, rookie QB, and mostly new O-line personnel. It will take time before they are all on the same page, and understand what they do well (and what they don't). The biggest part though, is Sam. He just needs to get the reps and grow every week. The team's success hinges on his progress and development.

Re: Philly pre-game
 

If we are the middle of the road, there are a lot of really shitty offensive lines out there then.

Although it does appear that I'm giving Sam too much of a pass in this whole matter. When I watch, it looks like the pocket is just not that great most times, but maybe it's just because Sam isn't firing that fucking pigskin at the top of his drop.

Still think we need to upgrade the whole unit outside of maybe Cosmi.

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[quote=skinsfaninok;1346693]Yeah and when he’s pressured he just throws the ball all over the place , he has to just eat a sack sometimes.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk[/quote]

Or just throw it away! Doesn't seem to be in his repertoire so far ...

Re: Philly pre-game
 

[quote=Chief X_Phackter;1346681]Through three games, we're 3rd in the league in yards per rushing attempt. We can run the ball, and the offensive line is a major reason why. You don't average 5 yards per rush with a dogshit line.

I personally think the offensive line has been way over criticized due to the amount of sacks Sam has taken. Of course the sacks that stick out, and the sacks everyone remembers, are the ones that resulted in a TD or safety when Wylie was beaten 1 on 1. However, most analysts I've heard - who actually look at the plays and not the box score - have indicated that the majority of the sacks aren't on the O-line.

Either way it's gotta get cleaned up, and that starts with EB.[/quote]

[url]https://www.hogshaven.com/2023/9/27/23892440/sam-howells-sack-issues-are-nothing-new[/url]


There is data here that supports this view.
EB's play calling with Mahomes: 62%pass:38%run
EB's play calling with Howell: 65% pass:35% run

That has to change.

Howell brings his own issues. As far back as a freshman in college he has been known to hold onto the ball and not know when to cut bait. This is what gives me pause when people say growing pains because this has been a 6 year problem that he still has. He is last in league allowing nearly 40% of pressures turn into sacks.

In defense of the o-line Sam has 2.5+ on 78 of his 124 drop backs that is second most to our favorite lightening rod Kirk Cousins.

Either way you slice it EB has to do a better job of working with his QB getting quick reads and running game as he hopefully grows into a quality QB.

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We should have been running the ball more since game 1. Oline looks to be a better run blocking than pass pro.

Sam certainly is responsible for sacks and would say it’s fifty-fifty.

I thought EB wasn’t very good last Sunday and the game plan wasn’t good at all.

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I know it is a SSS but the fact the pass run ratio is basically the same as Mahomes is absurd