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SmootSmack 07-13-2009 04:27 PM

Some Zorn Story...But It Hints at Campbell Getting Paid
 
[url=http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/news/story?id=4322356]Washington Redskins coach Jim Zorn doesn't play by conventional rules - ESPN[/url]

WaldSkins 07-13-2009 04:42 PM

Re: Some Zorn Story...But It Hints at Campbell Getting Paid
 
I think it points to what everyone here is saying, if he has a good season he will get paid if not then he's gone.

Schneed10 07-13-2009 04:53 PM

Re: Some Zorn Story...But It Hints at Campbell Getting Paid
 
Good read.

I like what I hear about Zorn's plan for the offense, and I really like the motto (now in my sig). I think he has a real good plan in place, and he's right, the best offenses take time.

The question to me comes down to personnel. I think Campbell has what it takes, but do we have the line, and do we have the WRs? That's the key.

... as we've discussed ad nauseum.

GTripp0012 07-13-2009 04:58 PM

Re: Some Zorn Story...But It Hints at Campbell Getting Paid
 
Football Outsiders came out with a new stat called "accurate pass rate" this year, which is defined as the percentage of passes not marked as "thrown ahead" "thrown behind" "overthrown" or "underthrown".

Campbell was 7th in the NFL last season with an 85.7% accuracy rate. He was also the quarterback most victimized by drops, 39 times. Moss, Randle El, and surprisingly, Portis were the biggest culprits. Moss was second in the NFL in drops behind Braylon Edwards, although, far behind Edwards and he wasn't in the top ten in terms of drop percentage (though Randle El was). Campbell was also (excluding only J. Garcia, who voluntarily runs into pressure) the most valuable passer in the league when he was pressured last year.

None of this says anything we didn't already know about Campbell, just further reinforces it.

GTripp0012 07-13-2009 05:00 PM

Re: Some Zorn Story...But It Hints at Campbell Getting Paid
 
And the quarterback who was found to be most similar to Campbell, using his accuracy score...well, you guys will like this:

Jay Cutler. Almost identical in accuracy last year.

tryfuhl 07-13-2009 05:06 PM

Re: Some Zorn Story...But It Hints at Campbell Getting Paid
 
It's interesting to see the numbers broken down that way, comforting as well, but the only thing that matters at the end of the season is how far you got and how many W's you pulled if not into the playoffs. That'll be sooner to seal Campbell's fate than some blog's ratings.

GTripp0012 07-13-2009 05:09 PM

Re: Some Zorn Story...But It Hints at Campbell Getting Paid
 
Although, Campbell has taken a beating over the last two years, he's been the most consistently hit QB in the league over that timeframe, so if there's a legitimate worry that he might regress, it's in the fact that very few quarterbacks have been able to deal with this much punishment over two years and continue to improve.

But then again, we'll know all this by the end of the season anyway, so there's no need for long term worry.

MTK 07-13-2009 05:12 PM

Re: Some Zorn Story...But It Hints at Campbell Getting Paid
 
I've got a good feeling about this year. Yeah I know it's easy to feel good about things in July, but just call it a hunch. I'm feeling something special, and no I haven't been drinking.

hooskins 07-13-2009 05:28 PM

Re: Some Zorn Story...But It Hints at Campbell Getting Paid
 
[quote=Mattyk72;567601]I've got a good feeling about this year. Yeah I know it's easy to feel good about things in July, but just call it a hunch. I'm feeling something special, and no I haven't been drinking.[/quote]

I feel similar in that expectations are low and we finally have some stability. Not much change over the offseason(minus AH) is a good thing IMO.

The Goat 07-13-2009 05:33 PM

Re: Some Zorn Story...But It Hints at Campbell Getting Paid
 
[quote=GTripp0012;567595]Football Outsiders came out with a new stat called "accurate pass rate" this year, which is defined as the percentage of passes not marked as "thrown ahead" "thrown behind" "overthrown" or "underthrown".

Campbell was 7th in the NFL last season with an 85.7% accuracy rate. He was also the quarterback most victimized by drops, 39 times. Moss, Randle El, and surprisingly, Portis were the biggest culprits. Moss was second in the NFL in drops behind Braylon Edwards, although, far behind Edwards and he wasn't in the top ten in terms of drop percentage (though Randle El was). Campbell was also (excluding only J. Garcia, who voluntarily runs into pressure) the most valuable passer in the league when he was pressured last year.

None of this says anything we didn't already know about Campbell, just further reinforces it.[/quote]

Luv the stats...no surprises like you said GT. Our WR corp has been just abysmal in the big picture...much like our oline. IMHO we lost the playoff game against Seattle because of two things: piss-poor WR play and an awful oline. The FO has done very little to improve either thing up to this point.

...the conspiracy theorist might think the FO just doesn't want to give JC the opportunity to succeed?

Hog1 07-13-2009 06:25 PM

Re: Some Zorn Story...But It Hints at Campbell Getting Paid
 
[quote=Mattyk72;567601]I've got a good feeling about this year. Yeah I know it's easy to feel good about things in July, but just call it a hunch. I'm feeling something special, and no I haven't been drinking.[/quote]

I have a good feeling as well........but the difference is I don't have to Sell myself on it as I did with Spurrier
Play like a franchise qb and I'll pay you like it! AWESOME

skinsfan69 07-13-2009 07:28 PM

Re: Some Zorn Story...But It Hints at Campbell Getting Paid
 
[quote=GTripp0012;567596]And the quarterback who was found to be most similar to Campbell, using his accuracy score...well, you guys will like this:

Jay Cutler. Almost identical in accuracy last year.[/quote]

What the stat doesn't tell you is that JC probably completed and attempted more passes under 10 yards than anyone in the NFL. And I bet JC attempted and competed fewer passes over 10 yards than anyone. Bottom line JC needs to stop being a game manager and take more chances so the offense has more production and scores more points. If he does that, and the guys around him play better then he'll be just fine.

Lotus 07-13-2009 08:00 PM

Re: Some Zorn Story...But It Hints at Campbell Getting Paid
 
[quote=Mattyk72;567601]I've got a good feeling about this year. Yeah I know it's easy to feel good about things in July, but just call it a hunch. I'm feeling something special, and no I haven't been drinking.[/quote]

I feel the same.

Gmanc711 07-13-2009 08:00 PM

Re: Some Zorn Story...But It Hints at Campbell Getting Paid
 
[quote=hooskins;567603]I feel similar in that expectations are low and we finally have some stability. Not much change over the offseason(minus AH) is a good thing IMO.[/quote]

I guess I have that kind of feeling. I would not be shocked if we went 7-9, I would not be shocked if we went 11-5. I think we have the potential to have one of the top 3 defenses in the league, I really do. Our offense is a huge question mark. I still worry greatly about our line, and dont think we did enough to address it. I love the Dockery signing for the longterm of the team (and I'm a huge Dock guy)... but I dont really know that he is that much of an upgrade over Kendall.

djnemo65 07-13-2009 08:08 PM

Re: Some Zorn Story...But It Hints at Campbell Getting Paid
 
Excellent read. Really encapsulates what makes Zorn such a diamond in the bromide spewing world of NFL coaches.

53Fan 07-13-2009 08:23 PM

Re: Some Zorn Story...But It Hints at Campbell Getting Paid
 
I like Zorn and I like the direction this team is going. I think a lot of people are going to be surprised....... and it's going to feel so good!

GTripp0012 07-13-2009 08:26 PM

Re: Some Zorn Story...But It Hints at Campbell Getting Paid
 
[quote=skinsfan69;567614]What the stat doesn't tell you is that JC probably completed and attempted more passes under 10 yards than anyone in the NFL. And I bet JC attempted and competed fewer passes over 10 yards than anyone. Bottom line JC needs to stop being a game manager and take more chances so the offense has more production and scores more points. If he does that, and the guys around him play better then he'll be just fine.[/quote]Well, empirically, Campbell's average pass traveled not as far as Cutler's. Specifically, in the second half of the year, Campbell's average pass distance declined, due to all the reasons we've been complaining about since November.

So, no, he didn't dink and dunk more than anyone in the NFL. Not even close. But there's evidence that the Redskins tried to limit the amount of downfield passes Campbell threw once rushers started getting to him before the passes got off.

As to whether or not that made his accuracy, well, consider why that happened. It wasn't because the throws were getting [I]less[/I] difficult.

an23dy 07-13-2009 08:52 PM

Re: Some Zorn Story...But It Hints at Campbell Getting Paid
 
[quote=GTripp0012;567595]Football Outsiders came out with a new stat called "accurate pass rate" this year, which is defined as the percentage of passes not marked as "thrown ahead" "thrown behind" "overthrown" or "underthrown".

Campbell was 7th in the NFL last season with an 85.7% accuracy rate. He was also the quarterback most victimized by drops, 39 times. Moss, Randle El, and surprisingly, Portis were the biggest culprits. Moss was second in the NFL in drops behind Braylon Edwards, although, far behind Edwards and he wasn't in the top ten in terms of drop percentage (though Randle El was). Campbell was also (excluding only J. Garcia, who voluntarily runs into pressure) the most valuable passer in the league when he was pressured last year.

None of this says anything we didn't already know about Campbell, just further reinforces it.[/quote]

That's interesting, I'd like to see those numbers. How they calculate them and especially where everybody is ranked. Did you buy the Football Outsiders Almanac or was the info some place else?

ethat001 07-13-2009 09:16 PM

Re: Some Zorn Story...But It Hints at Campbell Getting Paid
 
[quote=GTripp0012;567595]Campbell was 7th in the NFL last season with an 85.7% accuracy rate. He was also the quarterback most victimized by drops, 39 times. Moss, Randle El, and surprisingly, Portis were the biggest culprits. Moss was second in the NFL in drops behind Braylon Edwards, although, far behind Edwards and he wasn't in the top ten in terms of drop percentage (though Randle El was). Campbell was also (excluding only J. Garcia, who voluntarily runs into pressure) the most valuable passer in the league when he was pressured last year.
[/quote]

Great work GTripp -- great stats!! That's why I come to these mesg boards, you guys get info I haven't seen or heard anywhere else.

I also completely agree that he's inflated these stats by dumping balls off, BUT it still says that he can still throw an accurate ball. I'm also surprised we had so many drops -- S.Moss has got to work on it -- I hope the 2nd year trio (DT/MK/FD) can start catching balls to help him out.

As always, I'm hopeful for the season. I just wish there weren't always so many IF's. IF our OL stays healthy, IF our WR's actually play, IF our QB starts throwing deep, IF Rak can play OLB, IF Portis can stay healthy..

GTripp0012 07-13-2009 09:20 PM

Re: Some Zorn Story...But It Hints at Campbell Getting Paid
 
[quote=an23dy;567625]That's interesting, I'd like to see those numbers. How they calculate them and especially where everybody is ranked. Did you buy the Football Outsiders Almanac or was the info some place else?[/quote]Bought the Almanac.

I can't post their stuff online in anything but an abbreviated form, so with that in mind, I'll throw out the top ten in QB Accuracy:

[quote]1. Brees 90.2%
2. P. Manning 87.0%
3. Favre 86.7%
4. Warner 86.5%
5. Garcia 86.0%
6. Cutler 85.8%
7. Campbell 85.7%
8. Delhomme 84.7%
9. Cassel 84.6%
10. Pennington 84.5%[/quote]

League ave is listed at 82.6%

Other NFC East QBs:

[quote]19. Romo 81.9%
23. McNabb 81.2%
26. Manning 80.8%[/quote]

SBXVII 07-13-2009 09:56 PM

Re: Some Zorn Story...But It Hints at Campbell Getting Paid
 
I like Zorn, he reminds me of a young Gibbs. His only bad point I can see is he calls out players instead of simply diverting the attention as Gibbs did. I never see any point in pointing fingers when it's a team sport. Other then that I think he actually is good for the team and if given time hope he does well. I too feel this yr will be special ....but I have felt every yr would be "the yr." I guess if they have bolstered the O-line well enough then Campbell will do fine in my book but if the O-line struggles then expect the same as last yr.

As far as Campbell goes I like him. He doesn't get too excited or flustered but that is also is bad points. I still wonder about his ability to read defenses but if the O-line gives him time then perhaps he will do ok.

I'm not expecting a SB, and I'm not even expecting play offs as I have in the past. I simply want the team to be better then last yr. and not come in last place in the NFCEast. If they can do that I'll be satisfied. So long as they are showing improvement. If they digress then boot all the coach's and start over, allow the HC to pick his staff, give him time to build the team around what he's trying to do and that may mean cutting some players that don't fit the system. Although the defense is getting it done if the team decides to ax everything and start over then I would look into the 3-4 defense since we have AH.

I just hope Zorn does well so we are not "starting over" again. Any good offense takes what some believe ...3-5 yrs to master. We have not given any coach that time since Norv. Gibbs would have been given the time but went out and picked up Saunders and his system was tweeked too much. Basically learning a new offense all over again.

an23dy 07-14-2009 12:54 AM

Re: Some Zorn Story...But It Hints at Campbell Getting Paid
 
[quote=GTripp0012;567627]Bought the Almanac.

I can't post their stuff online in anything but an abbreviated form, so with that in mind, I'll throw out the top ten in QB Accuracy:



League ave is listed at 82.6%

Other NFC East QBs:[/quote]

Thanks. Sorry for bothering you again, but can you tell me where Flacco is ranked? My roommate's a Ravens fan and he always argues with me that Flacco is better than Campbell. I always used to tell him Flacco missed throws much more often than Campbell, so I was always curious how what I saw translates to numbers.

GTripp0012 07-14-2009 05:27 AM

Re: Some Zorn Story...But It Hints at Campbell Getting Paid
 
[quote=an23dy;567647]Thanks. Sorry for bothering you again, but can you tell me where Flacco is ranked? My roommate's a Ravens fan and he always argues with me that Flacco is better than Campbell. I always used to tell him Flacco missed throws much more often than Campbell, so I was always curious how what I saw translates to numbers.[/quote]21st at 81.5%. Between Romo and McNabb.

freddyg12 07-14-2009 08:14 AM

Re: Some Zorn Story...But It Hints at Campbell Getting Paid
 
Nice article & good stats GT.

What struck me about this is how a coach's approach can be seemingly well recieved by one player - Campbell - but not by another - Portis.

Also, that's really the first thing I recall reading that actually mentions that Snyder said he'll pay JC if he has a big year. I don't recall that ever making it to print before.

skins89moss 07-14-2009 08:18 AM

Re: Some Zorn Story...But It Hints at Campbell Getting Paid
 
[quote=The Goat;567604]Luv the stats...no surprises like you said GT. Our WR corp has been just abysmal in the big picture...much like our oline. IMHO we lost the playoff game against Seattle because of two things: piss-poor WR play and an awful oline. The FO has done very little to improve either thing up to this point.

...the conspiracy theorist might think the FO just doesn't want to give JC the opportunity to succeed?[/quote]

If Dan Synder would go out and give Haynesworth a 100 million contract their is no way that he doesnt want Jason to do well. We all know that Synder will reward you if you produce. We drafted 2 WR and a TE last yr draft so what makes you think their is a conspiracy to let Jason Campbell fail. Not a chance in Hell bro Synder loves to win.

skins89moss 07-14-2009 08:22 AM

Re: Some Zorn Story...But It Hints at Campbell Getting Paid
 
[quote=skinsfan69;567614]What the stat doesn't tell you is that JC probably completed and attempted more passes under 10 yards than anyone in the NFL. And I bet JC attempted and competed fewer passes over 10 yards than anyone. Bottom line JC needs to stop being a game manager and take more chances so the offense has more production and scores more points. If he does that, and the guys around him play better then he'll be just fine.[/quote]

So I guess your trying to say is that the O-line has to give him time to get the ball down field. The WR have to get some seperation and catch the ball.Zorn needs to call a good game plan to set up the big plays. It takes a entire offense to make a play work , if one player breaks that could be the difference between scoring a TD or a 10 yard play.

MTK 07-14-2009 08:28 AM

Re: Some Zorn Story...But It Hints at Campbell Getting Paid
 
[quote=The Goat;567604]Luv the stats...no surprises like you said GT. Our WR corp has been just abysmal in the big picture...much like our oline. IMHO we lost the playoff game against Seattle because of two things: piss-poor WR play and an awful oline. The FO has done very little to improve either thing up to this point.

...the conspiracy theorist might think the FO just doesn't want to give JC the opportunity to succeed?[/quote]

The conspiracy theorist would also ignore the fact the team drafted 2 WRs and a TE last year, and pounced on Dockery the second he was available this year.

redskins1974 07-14-2009 08:37 AM

Re: Some Zorn Story...But It Hints at Campbell Getting Paid
 
[quote=GTripp0012;567595]Football Outsiders came out with a new stat called "accurate pass rate" this year, which is defined as the percentage of passes not marked as "thrown ahead" "thrown behind" "overthrown" or "underthrown".

Campbell was 7th in the NFL last season with an 85.7% accuracy rate. He was also the quarterback most victimized by drops, 39 times. Moss, Randle El, and surprisingly, Portis were the biggest culprits. Moss was second in the NFL in drops behind Braylon Edwards, although, far behind Edwards and he wasn't in the top ten in terms of drop percentage (though Randle El was). Campbell was also (excluding only J. Garcia, who voluntarily runs into pressure) the most valuable passer in the league when he was pressured last year.

None of this says anything we didn't already know about Campbell, just further reinforces it.[/quote]


Well I think his accuracy rating is inflated because of all the many times he threw a 5 yard completion on 3rd and 12.

skinsfan69 07-14-2009 09:55 AM

Re: Some Zorn Story...But It Hints at Campbell Getting Paid
 
[quote=skins89moss;567665]So I guess your trying to say is that the O-line has to give him time to get the ball down field. The WR have to get some seperation and catch the ball.Zorn needs to call a good game plan to set up the big plays. It takes a entire offense to make a play work , if one player breaks that could be the difference between scoring a TD or a 10 yard play.[/quote]

that is true and i said everyone around him needs to play better. but that includes the qb too.

firstdown 07-14-2009 12:14 PM

Re: Some Zorn Story...But It Hints at Campbell Getting Paid
 
[quote=freddyg12;567663]Nice article & good stats GT.

What struck me about this is how a coach's approach can be seemingly well recieved by one player - Campbell - but not by another - Portis.

Also, that's really the first thing I recall reading that actually mentions that Snyder said he'll pay JC if he has a big year. I don't recall that ever making it to print before.[/quote]
I would think that would just be common sense to keep your QB when he starts hitting his stride. I just hope he hits that stride.

Ruhskins 07-14-2009 12:37 PM

Re: Some Zorn Story...But It Hints at Campbell Getting Paid
 
[quote=redskins1974;567668]Well I think his accuracy rating is inflated because of all the many times he threw a 5 yard completion on 3rd and 12.[/quote]

and b/c you don't like Campbell.

Lotus 07-14-2009 12:52 PM

Re: Some Zorn Story...But It Hints at Campbell Getting Paid
 
[quote=Mattyk72;567667]The conspiracy theorist would also ignore the fact the team drafted 2 WRs and a TE last year, and pounced on Dockery the second he was available this year.[/quote]

Also Rinehart. Whether he works out or not, at least the FO was trying. Let's hope he is much improved this year.

Schneed10 07-14-2009 01:03 PM

Re: Some Zorn Story...But It Hints at Campbell Getting Paid
 
[quote=GTripp0012;567595]Football Outsiders came out with a new stat called "accurate pass rate" this year, which is defined as the percentage of passes not marked as "thrown ahead" "thrown behind" "overthrown" or "underthrown".

Campbell was 7th in the NFL last season with an 85.7% accuracy rate. He was also the quarterback most victimized by drops, 39 times. Moss, Randle El, and surprisingly, Portis were the biggest culprits. Moss was second in the NFL in drops behind Braylon Edwards, although, far behind Edwards and he wasn't in the top ten in terms of drop percentage (though Randle El was). Campbell was also (excluding only J. Garcia, who voluntarily runs into pressure) the most valuable passer in the league when he was pressured last year.

None of this says anything we didn't already know about Campbell, just further reinforces it.[/quote]

These are valuable stats for evaluating Campbell, however to be fair yards per attempt needs to be evaluated in conjunction with the accuracy statistics.

A plot chart with YPA on the X axis and the accuracy % you discuss above on the Y would be helpful. Anyone with both accuracy % above the median and YPA above the median (they'd be plotted in the upper right quadrant of the graph) will likely represent the most prolific passers, there should be a high correlation between that list and the list of highest rated (in terms of QB rating).

The numbers tell the tale of how accurate Campbell is, but his YPA is atrocious. The YPA of course reflects the high drop rate, and the terrible performance of the line in the second half of the season resulting in Zorn reigning in the aggressiveness.

I think the stats indicate Campbell has exactly what it takes to be a very prolific passer, but his YPA won't reflect it until he gets the blocking and gets better WR play.

We just have to hope Vinny and company recognize that Campbell is not the problem.

KLHJ2 07-14-2009 01:16 PM

Re: Some Zorn Story...But It Hints at Campbell Getting Paid
 
[quote=GTripp0012;567596]And the quarterback who was found to be most similar to Campbell, using his accuracy score...well, you guys will like this:

Jay Cutler. Almost identical in accuracy last year.[/quote]

Out of curiosity where was Matt Cassell in this equation?

Paintrain 07-14-2009 02:30 PM

Re: Some Zorn Story...But It Hints at Campbell Getting Paid
 
[quote=redskins1974;567668]Well I think his accuracy rating is inflated because of all the many times he threw a 5 yard completion on 3rd and 12.[/quote]

You realize that our top 3 receivers last season (Cooley, Moss and ARE) all averaged more than 10 yards per reception, right? I'm so glad that camp and the season are right around the corner because it's so annoying to keep reading the same tired and inaccurate babble.

SmootSmack 07-14-2009 02:44 PM

Re: Some Zorn Story...But It Hints at Campbell Getting Paid
 
[quote=Paintrain;567729]You realize that our top 3 receivers last season (Cooley, Moss and ARE) all averaged more than 10 yards per reception, right? I'm so glad that camp and the season are right around the corner because it's so annoying to keep reading the same tired and inaccurate babble.[/quote]

What about yards after catch?

Cooley: 10.2 YPC, 5.7 YAC. So if I understand this right (and again my math sucks) most of his receptions were within 5 yards of Campbell, on average.

Moss: 13.2 YPC, 5.5 YAC

ARE: 11.2 YPC, 3.5 YAC

Wait a minute now, this makes no sense Yahoo! Sports (my source for the above) is saying CP averaged 7.8 ypc last year, but 8.7 yards after.

Never mind then.

But anyway, JC's accuracy should be high and only getting higher. That's the whole point of the WCO isn't it? Short, accurate passes within 5-7 yards. How often did Jerry Rice catch a deep bomb? More often than not it was a slant across the middle and then he took off

Lotus 07-14-2009 02:54 PM

Re: Some Zorn Story...But It Hints at Campbell Getting Paid
 
[quote=Angry;567715]Out of curiosity where was Matt Cassell in this equation?[/quote]

Cassel was 9th at 84.6

Schneed10 07-14-2009 02:58 PM

Re: Some Zorn Story...But It Hints at Campbell Getting Paid
 
[quote=SmootSmack;567731]What about yards after catch?

Cooley: 10.2 YPC, 5.7 YAC. So if I understand this right (and again my math sucks) most of his receptions were within 5 yards of Campbell, on average.

Moss: 13.2 YPC, 5.5 YAC

ARE: 11.2 YPC, 3.5 YAC

Wait a minute now, this makes no sense Yahoo! Sports (my source for the above) is saying CP averaged 7.8 ypc last year, but 8.7 yards after.

Never mind then.

But anyway, JC's accuracy should be high and only getting higher. That's the whole point of the WCO isn't it? Short, accurate passes within 5-7 yards. How often did Jerry Rice catch a deep bomb? More often than not it was a slant across the middle and then he took off[/quote]

This means CP, on average, caught his 28 receptions about one yard behind the line of scrimmage, ran 8.7 yards, and netted 7.8 on the play.

Makes sense. He was the target on dump offs and screens.

GTripp0012 07-14-2009 03:23 PM

Re: Some Zorn Story...But It Hints at Campbell Getting Paid
 
[quote=Schneed10;567710]These are valuable stats for evaluating Campbell, however to be fair yards per attempt needs to be evaluated in conjunction with the accuracy statistics.

A plot chart with YPA on the X axis and the accuracy % you discuss above on the Y would be helpful. Anyone with both accuracy % above the median and YPA above the median (they'd be plotted in the upper right quadrant of the graph) will likely represent the most prolific passers, there should be a high correlation between that list and the list of highest rated (in terms of QB rating).

The numbers tell the tale of how accurate Campbell is, but his YPA is atrocious. The YPA of course reflects the high drop rate, and the terrible performance of the line in the second half of the season resulting in Zorn reigning in the aggressiveness.

I think the stats indicate Campbell has exactly what it takes to be a very prolific passer, but his YPA won't reflect it until he gets the blocking and gets better WR play.

We just have to hope Vinny and company recognize that Campbell is not the problem.[/quote][IMG]http://farm3.static.flickr.com/2517/3720705163_149cd33c54_b.jpg[/IMG]

The correlation is weak-positive (0.13). This suggests that there's some, but little, reason to believe that the most efficient passers also happen to be the most accurate.

The line represents the expected regression for this sample.

Schneed10 07-14-2009 03:34 PM

Re: Some Zorn Story...But It Hints at Campbell Getting Paid
 
[quote=GTripp0012;567737][IMG]http://farm3.static.flickr.com/2517/3720705163_149cd33c54_b.jpg[/IMG]

The correlation is weak-positive (0.13). This suggests that there's some, but little, reason to believe that the most efficient passers also happen to be the most accurate.

The line represents the expected regression for this sample.[/quote]

Nice, you actually did it. Cool.

The assertion wasn't that a correlation (let alone causation) exists between accuracy and yards per attempt. The assertion was that those QBs listed in the upper right quadrant of the plot are the most prolific passers from a QB rating standpoint (where quadrants are determined by the intersection of the median values of YPA and Accuracy). This is kind of a no-brainer; if you're really accurate and your attempts go for more yards, you'll put up big numbers.

This chart bears that out. The top passers in terms of QB rating are indeed found in the upper right quadrant - Brees, Warner, Cutler, Manning.

There are clear shortcomings in this chart, as it does not factor interceptions or TDs, which are both significant factors in QB rating. But still, it provides a more complete picture of Campbell.

Campbell ranks 7th in accuracy, yeah that's nice. But the yards per attempt rank in the bottom half (below the median). This lends credence to the naysayers in this thread: Campbell was indeed accurate but he was not going downfield like other QBs.

Of course, this is reflective of the terrible O line, high drop rate by our WRs, and reflective of Zorn's mid-season adjustment to reign in the passing game getting more conservative to protect the football from a failing offensive line. It is not an indictment of Campbell.

It encapsulates more of the entire picture: Campbell is accurate, but we didn't get the yardage we needed. Question is, will we get the yardage if the line and WRs improve? I say we will, but we'll have to wait and see.


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