John Clayton on the Redskins' Playoff Chances
 

[url=http://myespn.go.com/blogs/nfceast/0-11-94/The-Professor-weighs-in-on-Redskins.html]The Professor weighs in on Redskins - NFC East - ESPN[/url]

John Clayton, a McCann Award recipient, recently took a road trip to see the Panthers, Falcons, Titans and Bengals. But he took the time to answer an NFC East-related question in his weekly mailbag. John was asked whether he thought the Redskins were a playoff contender and how much their season hinged on Devin Thomas' development.

"To me, the Redskins remain a playoff contender," writes Clayton. "They were last year. They are this year. They do have the easiest schedule in the NFC East. With the additions of Albert Haynesworth and Brian Orakpo, the Redskins will have a top-10 defense. If they can avoid injuries, they could be a top-five defense. Thomas should come on as the No. 3 receiver. He's had a decent offseason. If they can get to 21 points a game, they could have a very interesting season."

There it is. That magic 21 points per game barrier. Last year, the Redskins averaged 16.6 points per game, which ranked 28th in the league. The defense gave up 18.5 points per game, which put them sixth in the league. So where do the extra five points come from? Well, you're hoping that Devin Thomas and Malcolm Kelly arrive this season. And you need for Stephon Heyer to play relatively well at right tackle. Oh, and Clinton Portis needs to stay healthy for an entire season.

Do you guys see this offense improving by five points per game? Haynesworth and Orakpo should definitely help the defense, but it's not like that side of the ball was a problem last season.

Re: John Clayton on the Redskins' Playoff Chances
 

Getting more defensive turnovers will immediately help our offense. More chances to strike.

Re: John Clayton on the Redskins' Playoff Chances
 

I expect to see the offense take a big step forward this year. That's all we need to be a very legitimate team.

If that hinges on the development of Devin Thomas we could be in big trouble, but really it's all about the quarterback. If Campbell has a strong year we could be really good.

Re: John Clayton on the Redskins' Playoff Chances
 

We have needed 5 PPG for the past 5 years. I do not see our chances improving just by the defensive offseason additions. Unless the defense averages a pick 6 a game, then nothing is going to change. There may be a slight improvement on offense this season and the D might improve as well, but I am not about to make predictions about the scoreboard when points have been at a premium for this team.

With that being said we are going to win some games, but by no means do I believe that we will average 21 PPG.

Re: John Clayton on the Redskins' Playoff Chances
 

I won't pencil in Orakpo for many sacks or turnovers. In all fairness to him, he's still a rook. He might have a very avg. season finding his way. Haynesworth of course is a beast, but unless Rak has a tremendous rookier year, you can't count on the d-line to generate that many sacks. I don't see our D as being in the top 15 in terms of sacks. Turnovers are such a hard thing to predict but Hall & Landry have some ball hawking skills. Again, I see improvement but not enough to warrant 5 pts. a game. Maybe 3 pts. a game, which I'd be happy with!

I think that elusive 21 points has got to come from ball control; JC's improvement w/the offense, the wr's stepping up just enough to free up Moss, and the RT spot not being such a weak link. Even if this team kicks 7 fg's a game, they've got to sustain some drives & keep the D off the field. Lost too many games late last year w/a worn down defense.

Re: John Clayton on the Redskins' Playoff Chances
 

If Jason Campbell can play more like he did in the first Philly game and less like he did the last 8 games of the season 21 points a game shouldn't be that difficult.

Re: John Clayton on the Redskins' Playoff Chances
 

[quote=SmootSmack;564192][url=http://myespn.go.com/blogs/nfceast/0-11-94/The-Professor-weighs-in-on-Redskins.html]The Professor weighs in on Redskins - NFC East - ESPN[/url]

John Clayton, a McCann Award recipient, recently took a road trip to see the Panthers, Falcons, Titans and Bengals. But he took the time to answer an NFC East-related question in his weekly mailbag. John was asked whether he thought the Redskins were a playoff contender and how much their season hinged on Devin Thomas' development.

"To me, the Redskins remain a playoff contender," writes Clayton. "They were last year. They are this year. They do have the easiest schedule in the NFC East. With the additions of Albert Haynesworth and Brian Orakpo, the Redskins will have a top-10 defense. If they can avoid injuries, they could be a top-five defense. Thomas should come on as the No. 3 receiver. He's had a decent offseason. If they can get to 21 points a game, they could have a very interesting season."

There it is. That magic 21 points per game barrier. Last year, the Redskins averaged 16.6 points per game, which ranked 28th in the league. The defense gave up 18.5 points per game, which put them sixth in the league. So where do the extra five points come from? Well, you're hoping that Devin Thomas and Malcolm Kelly arrive this season. And you need for Stephon Heyer to play relatively well at right tackle. Oh, and Clinton Portis needs to stay healthy for an entire season.

Do you guys see this offense improving by five points per game? Haynesworth and Orakpo should definitely help the defense, but it's not like that side of the ball was a problem last season.[/quote]
5 points a game can be a lot. BUT...the addition of Haynesworth and Orakpo should help us with field position. You'd have to think that is worth a point or two a game alone(as long as our kicker can make field goals). The advancement of the offense in general and health along the OLine should be worth another two or three points (although health could go up in smoke of course). That leaves just a shade of need that our WRs improve. So yeah I have some hope that it can come together to get us up into the 20's.

Re: John Clayton on the Redskins' Playoff Chances
 

[quote=stu_nna;564193]Getting more defensive turnovers will immediately help our offense. More chances to strike.[/quote]

This is the true key to scoring 5 more ppg. Last year we had 13 ints, and of the 16 teams with more picks, only 2 had fewer ppg -- all the others scored over 21 ppg.

If we get more picks, we should also score more points.

Re: John Clayton on the Redskins' Playoff Chances
 

Dockery's addition is getting overlooked a bit, I think with him we got significantly better in drive blocking in short-yardage situations. I like our chances of converting TDs in the red zone by pounding a few more of 'em in there.

But 21 points per game? Probably not. I can't see any of our young WRs stepping up just yet. Maybe in their 3rd year.

Remember, Kelly is essentially a rookie this year due to inexperience thanks to injuries.

Re: John Clayton on the Redskins' Playoff Chances
 

[quote]This is the true key to scoring 5 more ppg. Last year we had 13 ints, and of the 16 teams with more picks, only 2 had fewer ppg -- all the others scored over 21 ppg.

If we get more picks, we should also score more points.[/quote]

So you mean half the teams with a lower PPG than us had more turnovers and half didn't? That's not much of a stat. No doubt turnovers could greatly help, but lets not disguise the real issue. Our red zone offense. When you get 7 instead of 3, 21 becomes much easier. Between the 30s our offense looked great. Inside the 30s... not so much.

Re: John Clayton on the Redskins' Playoff Chances
 

If the defense plays to its potential, there will be more scoring opportunities. I would like to see offensive improvement by everyone. The offensive line needs to protect for Campbell better and be more consistent run blocking from game to game. They had some outstanding games, some let downs and some games where they couldn't convert in short yardage situations. I expect improvement. I want Clinton Portis to remain healthy and I'm looking for more contribution from Ledell Betts. The wide receivers need the most improvement on the entire team. Santana Moss and Chris Cooley carry too much of the load. Need Devin Thomas, Malcolm Kelly and Fred Davis to step up and contribute. Special teams need improvement, especially the punter and punt returns. Coaches need to step up as well. The offense and defense playcalling was conservative at times and I would like to see the team attack more.

Re: John Clayton on the Redskins' Playoff Chances
 

Reasonable take by Clayton. If the offense improves to even an average one I would fully expect us to be in the running for the playoffs.

Re: John Clayton on the Redskins' Playoff Chances
 

If my calculations are correct we're talking about scoring about 70 more points (or 7 TDs) more than we did last year to get to 21 points, which could be a tall order...but my math has never been good.

Still, 21 points a game seems like something most NFL teams should be able to achieve with some regularity.

Clayton is generally pretty positive about the Redskins. He usually thinks they have the talent to be at least a solid Wild Card team

Re: John Clayton on the Redskins' Playoff Chances
 

When I watched the redskins last year the biggest issue was in the redzone. They just would constantly breakdown within the 20's. Also it seemed that Zorn lost his aggressive nature in the second 8 games. It was like the league caught up with his playcalling and he didn't adjust.

The defense should get better and hopefully cause more turnovers. which would mean shorter fields for the offense. My hope is that not only does Thomas steps up this year but also Fred Davis steps up as well. That way we could use more 2 TE sets.

Re: John Clayton on the Redskins' Playoff Chances
 

The biggest problem the Redskins have is BIG PLAYS(20 YRDS PLUS) & SHORT YARDAGE
More down field passed and a RB(aka Anthony Aldridge) that can take it the distance.
I love Portis for 5-10yrds , but hes not goint to take it to the house. Take it to the house backs, like M.Turner,A. Peterson,W.Parker, they can change a close game.

Re: John Clayton on the Redskins' Playoff Chances
 

[quote=FRPLG;564208]5 points a game can be a lot. BUT...the addition of Haynesworth and Orakpo should help us with field position. You'd have to think that is worth a point or two a game alone(as long as our kicker can make field goals). The advancement of the offense in general and health along the OLine should be worth another two or three points (although health could go up in smoke of course). That leaves just a shade of need that our WRs improve. So yeah I have some hope that it can come together to get us up into the 20's.[/quote]

Well even with good field position we weren't able to capitalize enough. Coaches and players have both pointed out our red zone performance as being sub par; to me that means that we need WR and O-Line production. Even with good field position if we walk away with 0 or 3 most of the time, it was only that, good field position.

Re: John Clayton on the Redskins' Playoff Chances
 

[quote=Daseal;564219]So you mean half the teams with a lower PPG than us had more turnovers and half didn't? That's not much of a stat. No doubt turnovers could greatly help, but lets not disguise the real issue. Our red zone offense. When you get 7 instead of 3, 21 becomes much easier. Between the 30s our offense looked great. Inside the 30s... not so much.[/quote]

I'm not exactly sure what you mean, but I think you misunderstood me -- or perhaps I'm misunderstanding you...

We were 17th in *picks* -- not ppg. So, the 16 teams ranked above us -- in picks -- all scored over 21 ppg (with the exception of 2 teams).

Re: John Clayton on the Redskins' Playoff Chances
 

[quote=SmootSmack;564229]If my calculations are correct we're talking about scoring about 70 more points (or 7 TDs) more than we did last year to get to 21 points, which could be a tall order...but my math has never been good.

Still, 21 points a game seems like something most NFL teams should be able to achieve with some regularity.

Clayton is generally pretty positive about the Redskins. He usually thinks they have the talent to be at least a solid Wild Card team[/quote]

Yeah your math is terrible, LOL. 7 TDs translates into 49 more points, not 70. You need 10 TDs for 70 points.

But it's not quite as simple as just coming up with 10 more TDs throughout the year, because to do so you need a ton more opportunities. The other way to get more points is to come away with fewer field goals, and instead convert to TDs.

If we converted 10 FGs to TDs, we'd be one of the best red zone teams in the NFL, and it would still get us only 40 additional points (7-3) x 10 = 40.

Then we could get more opportunities by getting more turnovers on the defensive side. And the other way is to turn offensive series that never were real opportunities into TDs by way of the huge big play; for example when you're on your own 20 you don't really consider it a scoring opportunity, but if you hit on a long bomb for 80 yards, then you have a chance to make it happen.

To get 70 more points I think you need all 3, which is a tall order. You need to punch it in when in the red zone (hopefully Dockery helps, but he can only do so much). You need to capture more turnovers, which Haynesworth should help with. And you need to hit on the big play, which is where pass protection comes in for the 7 step drop.

You can't get to 70 without all of the above taking place.

Re: John Clayton on the Redskins' Playoff Chances
 

[quote=ChickenMonkey;564245]The biggest problem the Redskins have is BIG PLAYS(20 YRDS PLUS) & SHORT YARDAGE
More down field passed and a RB(aka Anthony Aldridge) that can take it the distance.
I love Portis for 5-10yrds , but hes not goint to take it to the house. Take it to the house backs, like M.Turner,A. Peterson,W.Parker, they can change a close game.[/quote]

I agree to an extent, but it's sort of what we've molded CP into. That and our downfield run blocking hasn't been so great in the past few years.

Re: John Clayton on the Redskins' Playoff Chances
 

[quote=Schneed10;564256]Yeah your math is terrible, LOL. 7 TDs translates into 49 more points, not 70. You need 10 TDs for 70 points.

But it's not quite as simple as just coming up with 10 more TDs throughout the year, because to do so you need a ton more opportunities. The other way to get more points is to come away with fewer field goals, and instead convert to TDs.

If we converted 10 FGs to TDs, we'd be one of the best red zone teams in the NFL, and it would still get us only 40 additional points (7-3) x 10 = 40.

Then we could get more opportunities by getting more turnovers on the defensive side. And the other way is to turn offensive series that never were real opportunities into TDs by way of the huge big play; for example when you're on your own 20 you don't really consider it a scoring opportunity, but if you hit on a long bomb for 80 yards, then you have a chance to make it happen.

To get 70 more points I think you need all 3, which is a tall order. You need to punch it in when in the red zone (hopefully Dockery helps, but he can only do so much). You need to capture more turnovers, which Haynesworth should help with. And you need to hit on the big play, which is where pass protection comes in for the 7 step drop.

You can't get to 70 without all of the above taking place.[/quote]

LOL. I'm the Firstdown of Math :)

Definitely agree about converting field goals to touchdowns, that is a huge factor

Re: John Clayton on the Redskins' Playoff Chances
 

It is fun to read these predictions but the truth is it long season and there are so many things out of the team's control that who knows what may happen. I doubt any of us thought this time last year that the Cards would be playing in the Superbowl.

Re: John Clayton on the Redskins' Playoff Chances
 

If we add 5 PPG and Zorn doesn't change his philosophy to do so, that would mean we would have a top 5 offense, a top 10 defense, and we would win 13 games without breaking a sweat.

So 21 PPG is by no means some magic mark that we have to make. At 19 PPG, this is a playoff team. That's just over 300 points in a season. And the defense and special teams might actually contribute as well this year.

Re: John Clayton on the Redskins' Playoff Chances
 

[quote=GTripp0012;564281]If we add 5 PPG and Zorn doesn't change his philosophy to do so, that would mean we would have a top 5 offense, a top 10 defense, and we would win 13 games without breaking a sweat.

[B]So 21 PPG is by no means some magic mark that we have to make. At 19 PPG, this is a playoff team.[/B] That's just over 300 points in a season. And the defense and special teams might actually contribute as well this year.[/quote]

I agree. The 21 ppg mark is arbitrary and, as much as I'd like to score 21 ppg, we can win many games scoring less.

I also agree with the comments above about the red zone offense. That really needs fixing. If Cooley has the red zone TD's that he should have (but didn't last year), the Redskins are a much better team.

Re: John Clayton on the Redskins' Playoff Chances
 

5 ppg totally rests with Jason's throwing arm and Clinton's health. We haven't done anything to help them.

So, i think we're a contender, but not a favorite to make the playoffs.

Re: John Clayton on the Redskins' Playoff Chances
 

[quote=diehardskin2982;564232][B]When I watched the redskins last year the biggest issue was in the redzone.[/B] They just would constantly breakdown within the 20's. Also it seemed that Zorn lost his aggressive nature in the second 8 games. It was like the league caught up with his playcalling and he didn't adjust.

The defense should get better and hopefully cause more turnovers. which would mean shorter fields for the offense. My hope is that not only does Thomas steps up this year but also Fred Davis steps up as well. That way we could use more 2 TE sets.[/quote]

Mike Sellers on the one-yard line last year!!! Who were we playing again?

Re: John Clayton on the Redskins' Playoff Chances
 

[quote=TheSmurfs22;564280]It is fun to read these predictions but the truth is it long season and there are so many things out of the team's control that who knows what may happen. I doubt any of us thought this time last year that the Cards would be playing in the Superbowl.[/quote]

It is indeed a long season. We averaged 20.6 points in the first eight games of the season last year and 12.5 in the last eight games of the season. Maybe this is where John Clayton got his 21 points from...

Re: John Clayton on the Redskins' Playoff Chances
 

Suisham had a down year last year and if we only get 1 more fieldgoal a game that puts our average at 19.6. Zorn has worked on the redzone offense extensively this year and Fred Davis will actually contribute. Our offense will be better this year and score more points and our defense could realistically become "elite". Cooley will get more TD's and Thomas and Kelly will contribute. Yes, we're going to the playoffs.

Re: John Clayton on the Redskins' Playoff Chances
 

[quote=53Fan;564305]Suisham had a down year last year and if we only get 1 more fieldgoal a game that puts our average at 19.6. Zorn has worked on the redzone offense extensively this year and Fred Davis will actually contribute. Our offense will be better this year and score more points and our defense could realistically become "elite". Cooley will get more TD's and Thomas and Kelly will contribute. Yes, we're going to the playoffs.[/quote]

Suisham didn't miss 16 FGs beyond his normal miss rate. The best answer is to convert red zone opportunities into TDs, and leave Suisham on the sideline.

Re: John Clayton on the Redskins' Playoff Chances
 

[quote=Schneed10;564309]Suisham didn't miss 16 FGs beyond his normal miss rate. The best answer is to convert red zone opportunities into TDs, and leave Suisham on the sideline.[/quote]

I agree and think we'll do a lot better in the redzone this year. I also expect Suisham to have a better year. I think we can expect at least 3 more points per game than last year.

Re: John Clayton on the Redskins' Playoff Chances
 

[quote=Schneed10;564309]Suisham didn't miss 16 FGs beyond his normal miss rate. The best answer is to convert red zone opportunities into TDs, and leave Suisham on the sideline.[/quote]But there were at least 10-12 reasonably makeable FG situations that were passed on because the game situation dictated that 3 points wouldn't have changed the outcome.

Ergo, projecting an increase of 30-45 points due to improvements in the results of FG games is realistic. However, then any increase in the Touchdown projections would be worth 4 points per, because we can't double count the game situations in which we came away with zero points. We can add 3 points in those situations with no theoretical improvement, or 7 points with a small theoretical improvement, but under no situation can those be 10 point situations.

The bottom line is that a progression to the mean based on last year's talent should yield about 19 PPG. To get up to 21, and get those 6-7 extra touchdowns out of those FG attempts, the offense has to improve situationally, both in the red zone, and in the 30+ yd play categories.

I think we can extrapolate that if the offense simply isn't worse than last year, we're dealing with a playoff team. If it progresses just by 2-3 PPG (on top of the 2.5 PPG progression to mean yardage totals), we're talking about a SB contender. 2-3 PPG won't be easy though, and if we start trading in additional turnovers for points, we're going to cost ourselves more wins than the points will gain us.

Re: John Clayton on the Redskins' Playoff Chances
 

To put the ^^^ in more sensable terms, there were situations in both our wins (think Dallas I) and losses (think Pittsburgh) where easy points were just left on the table by Zorn's coaching decisions in order to increase the chances that we win the game. In the second half against Pittburgh, we went for the end zone twice from the red zone trying to chase the points, passing up two field goal oppertunities that the offense had earned. Against Dallas, we gave up on a chance to punch in a TD up by 8 so that we could be certain to make it a two possession game. However, we cost ourselves 4 points by doing so, but we put Dallas in a situation where grabbing an onside kick was a necessity to have enough chances to win the game.

That's ten points in just 1/8 of the season that the game situation cost us, and certainly, not the only examples.

Re: John Clayton on the Redskins' Playoff Chances
 

Second guessing whether we should have kicked a field or go for a TD is a bit too far but certainly the fact that we had great field positions last year from turnovers and good KRs but couldn't score in the red zone is an area we have been trying to improve without any noticeable change. The 21 ppg target rests largely on JC whether he takes more chances but also on our receivers running better routes than last year (routes that were well short of the 1st on 3rd downs).

Re: John Clayton on the Redskins' Playoff Chances
 

[quote=stu_nna;564193]Getting more defensive turnovers will immediately help our offense. More chances to strike.[/quote]
+1
to piggy back from your post

More scoring doesn't have to come directly from the offense alone.
Lets assume that the offense/passing game doesn't improve *(i think it will) having better field position would lead to shorter field which would lead to more points
-more production from the Punting/Punt Return Units could help
-Swishy could make some more kicks

Re: John Clayton on the Redskins' Playoff Chances
 

[quote=GTripp0012;564315]To put the ^^^ in more sensable terms, there were situations in both our wins (think Dallas I) and losses (think Pittsburgh) where easy points were just left on the table by Zorn's coaching decisions in order to increase the chances that we win the game. In the second half against Pittburgh, we went for the end zone twice from the red zone trying to chase the points, passing up two field goal oppertunities that the offense had earned. Against Dallas, we gave up on a chance to punch in a TD up by 8 so that we could be certain to make it a two possession game. However, we cost ourselves 4 points by doing so, but we put Dallas in a situation where grabbing an onside kick was a necessity to have enough chances to win the game.

That's ten points in just 1/8 of the season that the game situation cost us, and certainly, not the only examples.[/quote]

Good point GTripp. I would be very, very surprised if we don't score more points this year than last.

Re: John Clayton on the Redskins' Playoff Chances
 

I like Clayton's take on our chances. What I really love about it though, was that it was not over the top. Every year there is a team that is overhyped at nausea call me superstitious, but it usually means that team does not do as well. Last season it was the freakin Cowboys. Who in the world saw the Cardinals coming? The year before it was the Saints... no one was talking about he Giants. This year it is the Texans, and maybe the Falcons. Keep talking everyone... but we all know defense wins championships. We had a top ten defense last year and have abandoned the "ain't broke don't fix it" slogan and turned our Porsche into a Lamborghini... We need to continue to fly under the radar and catch them all by surprise!

Re: John Clayton on the Redskins' Playoff Chances
 

I don't want to re-hash some of the same things that have been said but I will point out a few overlooked factors:

1. Defensive TD-We haven't scored on defense since October 2007, ironically on a Carlos Rogers INT return, and have been one of the worst teams in that regard over the past decade. While he will give up the occasional big play, D. Hall has more potential to turn the field over than anyone we've had since Champ. While we can't count on a TD per game, if we get one per quarter of the season that will win us a game or two.

2. The addition of Hunter Smith. His value in the field position game will have a positive impact on the defense which should again, improve the offense by proxy. His biggest impact however may be in the holding position. While I am not a big Suisham fan, he was undone a little last year with Brooks and Plackemier, who were both largely clueless as holders. I've never liked a punter as a holder but at least he's done it and done it with some accomplished kickers (Vanderjagt, Vinatieri) so hopefully Suisham's percentage will improve.

3. We left a ton of points on the field last year. We were one of the worst in the red zone and just by quick recollection we missed out on at least 6 TD (2 Rabach penalties on the same drive nullifying TD passes, Thomas TD called back vs. Arizona, Sellers stuffed, then fumbles next play vs. Cincy, Sellers dropped TD pass vs. Seattle) that could have increased our PPG. We have to execute better but I'd expect increased comfort and experience in the system will allow our guys to do more playing rather than thinking and playing.

Re: John Clayton on the Redskins' Playoff Chances
 

Our cadre of WR's need to be able to play far beyond the level they played at last year. Everything else on offense will follow.

The D will be fine and a few defensive TD's would work wonders.

Re: John Clayton on the Redskins' Playoff Chances
 

[quote=Paintrain;564342]1. Defensive TD-We haven't scored on defense since October 2007, ironically on a Carlos Rogers INT return, and have been one of the worst teams in that regard over the past decade. While he will give up the occasional big play, D. Hall has more potential to turn the field over than anyone we've had since Champ. While we can't count on a TD per game, if we get one per quarter of the season that will win us a game or two.

[/quote]

This a million times, we have such a good defense but just a few def touchdowns would help so much.

Re: John Clayton on the Redskins' Playoff Chances
 

[quote=Zerohero;564347]This a million times, we have such a good defense but just a few def touchdowns would help so much.[/quote]

Defensive TD's come some by skill (catch the ball, Carlos!) but some by luck.

The law of averages at some point will come into play and we'll be getting more defensive TD's.

Re: John Clayton on the Redskins' Playoff Chances
 

[quote=stu_nna;564193]Getting more defensive turnovers will immediately help our offense. More chances to strike.[/quote]

thats it right there.:goodjob: