Re: Peyton Manning or RGIII your choice
 

[quote=diehard;884417][URL="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/761st_Tank_Battalion_(United_States)"]Why RG3 will succeed in the NFL and the real reason some think he won't...[/URL]

It's the Patton principle.[/quote]

Hahaha.... you got me.

Re: Peyton Manning or RGIII your choice
 

[quote=celts32;884407]I would love to be proved wrong and get RG3 at 6[/quote]

Don't get me wrong, I think that RGIII is dynamite and I would love to get him. But I think these factors may make him fall to #6:

1) Footwork/mechanics concerns
2) Durability concerns moving to the next level
3) There are real studs at other positions and teams may prefer to have the best player at position X rather than the second best QB
4) The trade-up price for QB hungry teams below us will be very steep, perhaps too steep to leapfrog us

Re: Peyton Manning or RGIII your choice
 

[quote=NC_Skins;884403]The other two were trades where they had 0 leverage so the pick was devalued. Now you have a situation where there are multiple teams wanting the pick, and without the huge contracts that rookies used to get. That pick has now become more valuable than it was prior.


2012 -1st
2012-3rd
2012- 4th

2013-1st
2013- 5th
----------------------------
2012-1st
2012-2nd

2013- 1st
2013- 4th
---------------

My scenario was a estimation, and it wasn't overblown that much even though you think it is. I can see several packages like the one above given for that pick.

The Panther's traded their 2010 1st rounder for a 2009 2nd round pick (43rd) worth 470 points.

You want to know why it cost the Chargers so much to move from #3 to #2? It was because of the person at stake. At the time, Leaf was perceived to have a higher ceiling than Peyton.

Fast forward to now. RGIII is also being touted as a top prospect along with Luck and is said to have a higher ceiling. He's obviously good enough for Irsay to mention both him and Luck.

Put that #2 up for bid, and the price could sky rocket if teams start a bidding war. If you want to argue about me adding an additional 4th or 5th to the chart, than by all means haggle away. It was a rough estimate, but it was enough to show that we dont' want to give up that much for one guy.[/quote]

To be clear on what this was- I said I thought you were guessing high on the trade price, you said it [I]wasn't[/I] a guess, it was the cost based on previous trades and the value chart. And now, several posts later, we get that you [I]are[/I] guessing that it will be more than recent trades and the value chart. Fine, it is your guess, nothing wrong with that. Just wish it didn't take so long to get back there.

John Clayton was just on the radio and his guess was that it might cost the Redskins two firsts and another pick for Griffin (after he talked about how much smarter a move he thought that was than signing Manning, and how he felt Griffin was a perfect fit for Shanahan's offense).

Re: Peyton Manning or RGIII your choice
 

[quote=biffle;884432]John Clayton was just on the radio and his guess was that it might cost the Redskins two firsts and another pick for Griffin (after he talked about how much smarter a move he thought that was than signing Manning, and how he felt Griffin was a perfect fit for Shanahan's offense).[/quote]

I guess that settles it. John Clayton knows what's best for the Redskins even though he hasn't a clue about our offense or any of the characteristics that Mike looks for in a QB.


As far as the other stuff, I'm not going any further with you. You want to argue just for the sake of arguing and you are saying things I said that aren't there (much like you did with 30gut) so I'll step out of this horse race right here and now.

Re: Peyton Manning or RGIII your choice
 

[quote=NC_Skins;884438]As far as the other stuff, I'm not going any further with you. You want to argue just for the sake of arguing and you are saying things I said that aren't there (much like you did with 30gut) so I'll step out of this horse race right here and now.[/quote]

LOL. Nice try. I am not trying to argue, in fact I just made an attempt to end the discussion fairly.

You said you weren't guessing at the cost, you referred me to the value chart and recent trades, which in the post right above this one you explain why you're guessing it will cost more than that. Go ahead and run away from your own words, but all you had to do was to admit that you were guessing like everyone else and leave the superiority complex out of your posts.

As for the 30gut thing earlier, I made an attempt to explain to him how he was completely misusing a statistic, which he failed to understand. Given the nature of this discussion, I don't know whether you personally lack the intelligence to understand it, or are willfully misrepresenting it. Neither would surprise me.

Re: Peyton Manning or RGIII your choice
 

Why the hate for John Clayton? What did he ever do?

Re: Peyton Manning or RGIII your choice
 

[quote=SmootSmack;884440]Why the hate for John Clayton? What did he ever do?[/quote]

Disagreed with him.

Re: Peyton Manning or RGIII your choice
 

we're all in this together. keep the jets cool

Re: Peyton Manning or RGIII your choice
 

[quote=SmootSmack;884440]Why the hate for John Clayton? What did he ever do?[/quote]

He wore glasses. That's unforgivable.

Re: Peyton Manning or RGIII your choice
 

You guys will love this ;)


[url=http://www.cleveland.com/browns/index.ssf/2012/02/patriots_te_rob_gronkowski_act.html]Griffin tells SI, NFL Network he wants to go to Colts: Super Bowl Insider | cleveland.com[/url]

Re: Peyton Manning or RGIII your choice
 

[quote=SmootSmack;884440]Why the hate for John Clayton? What did he ever do?[/quote]


No hating on JC. Kid was trying to use his word as if meant something in the grand scheme of things. How does Clayton know who would be a good fit or not? He study film? Coach techniques? Understand the type of QB this system needs?


This doesn't mean I don't like Clayton because I do. I like his reports. Him and Mortensen are my favorites.

Re: Peyton Manning or RGIII your choice
 

[quote=biffle;884439]LOL. Nice try. I am not trying to argue, in fact I just made an attempt to end the discussion fairly.

You said you weren't guessing at the cost, you referred me to the value chart and recent trades, which in the post right above this one you explain why you're guessing it will cost more than that. Go ahead and run away from your own words, but all you had to do was to admit that you were guessing like everyone else and leave the superiority complex out of your posts.

As for the 30gut thing earlier, I made an attempt to explain to him how he was completely misusing a statistic, which he failed to understand. Given the nature of this discussion, I don't know whether you personally lack the intelligence to understand it, or are willfully misrepresenting it. Neither would surprise me.[/quote]

[YT]ROPEICInVPY[/YT]

Re: Peyton Manning or RGIII your choice
 

Clayton's career is to know these things. He studies it, speaks endlessly with experts in the field. It's what pays his bills.

Re: Peyton Manning or RGIII your choice
 

[quote=SmootSmack;884452]Clayton's career is to know these things. He studies it, speaks endlessly with experts in the field. It's what pays his bills.[/quote]

Yeah, but it only got him into the HOF. Clearly his opinion pales in comparison to Random Internet Hotshot who thinks his guesses are facts.

Re: Peyton Manning or RGIII your choice
 

[quote=SmootSmack;884452]Clayton's career is to know these things. He studies it, speaks endlessly with experts in the field. It's what pays his bills.[/quote]

Why? He's not a analyst nor a draft expert so why does he need to know these things to report?

If he does these things, I'll cut him some slack then. That said, even Morocco Brown and Scott Campbell had to get instruction/guidance from Mike in regards to the characteristics they looked at regarding their system. If a professional scout team couldn't do it, not sure I buy that Clayton can either. Not unless they've broken it down to him.

Re: Peyton Manning or RGIII your choice
 

[quote=NC_Skins;884451][YT]ROPEICInVPY[/YT][/quote]

Thanks, but I prefer this:

[ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_PNGq7tDWMQ&feature=related]futurama Bite my shiny metal ass - YouTube[/ame]

Re: Peyton Manning or RGIII your choice
 

You can go back to ES any day now. Thanks in advance.

I actually like john Clayton

Re: Peyton Manning or RGIII your choice
 

[quote=NC_Skins;884454][B]Why? He's not a analyst nor a draft expert so why does he need to know these things to report?[/B]

If he does these things, I'll cut him some slack then. That said, even Morocco Brown and Scott Campbell had to get instruction/guidance from Mike in regards to the characteristics they looked at regarding their system. If a professional scout team couldn't do it, not sure I buy that Clayton can either. Not unless they've broken it down to him.[/quote]

Perhaps you should study what real reporters actually do with their days.

Of course he needs to try to know such things if he is to be a good reporter.

Re: Peyton Manning or RGIII your choice
 

[quote=Lotus;884461]Perhaps you should study what real reporters actually do with their days.

Of course he needs to try to know such things if he is to be a good reporter.[/quote]

I gathered he didn't just sit around in some office scanning forums/twitter/fax/email/phone for news alerts. If he's that knowledgeable, why don't they use him as a analyst?


SO why is I've heard that NFL scouts say that guys like Mel Kiper and Todd McShay don't know shit?


[quote]"Most people at my level feel he is a joke," a veteran NFL scout told us via e-mail. "People in the league respect Kiper. He is not a true scout but he does work at it. A lot of his info he gets from connections in the league, and over the years he has made quite a few. When he was younger he used to burn some bridges. He doesn't do that any more."

So what about McShay?

"McShay does not have any good connections," the source opined. "Higher-ups in the league think he is an arrogant asshole. A know-it-all. And he really knows nothing. Whatever he says about a quarterback, take it to the bank, it will be the opposite. Remember, last August he stated that Jevan Snead was better thanColt McCoy and would get drafted in the top five. He has yet to publicly retract that statement.[/quote]

Re: Peyton Manning or RGIII your choice
 

Clayton's opinion isn't random. But whatever, this isn't a thread about Clayton

Re: Peyton Manning or RGIII your choice
 

[quote=Lotus;884427]Don't get me wrong, I think that RGIII is dynamite and I would love to get him. But I think these factors may make him fall to #6:

1) Footwork/mechanics concerns
2) Durability concerns moving to the next level
3) There are real studs at other positions and teams may prefer to have the best player at position X rather than the second best QB
4) The trade-up price for QB hungry teams below us will be very steep, perhaps too steep to leapfrog us[/quote]

Really hard to argue with these. It seems highly improbable at this exact moment but RGIII could fall to six. Stranger things have happened on many drafts.

Re: Peyton Manning or RGIII your choice
 

[quote=SmootSmack;884466]Clayton's opinion isn't random. But whatever, this isn't a thread about Clayton[/quote]

I'd rather talk about Clayton at this point than quarterbacks. :laughing-

Re: Peyton Manning or RGIII your choice
 

[quote=NC_Skins;884456]You can go back to ES any day now. Thanks in advance.[/quote]

Ouch!?

Re: Peyton Manning or RGIII your choice
 

[quote=biffle;884249]My point was simply you can't assign some percentage chance of success on any player because of what other, completely different, players did. Both history and common sense should tell us that. I'm not sure how that is "irrelevant".[/quote]I wonder why actuaries use life tables. ;)

Re: Peyton Manning or RGIII your choice
 

[quote=NC_Skins;884464]I gathered he didn't just sit around in some office scanning forums/twitter/fax/email/phone for news alerts. [B]If he's that knowledgeable, why don't they use him as a analyst?[/B]


SO why is I've heard that NFL scouts say that guys like Mel Kiper and Todd McShay don't know shit?[/quote]

Nobody said that folks like Clayton know everything. If people like him did, they'd be GM's, not TV reporters.

But, on the other hand, they still put out a lot of effort, so just dismissing them is as disrespectful as it is foolish.

And economics dictate that there can only be so many analysts and so many reporters.

Re: Peyton Manning or RGIII your choice
 

[quote=SBXVII;884395]Not waisting more then 1 draft pick on said player would put the big smile on my face if we could land one of these, but it's doubtfull. So trading back, continueing with last years fabulous draft by trading back to aquire more picks in order to not only get valuable pieces but to help build up our back up pool.[/quote]

Stock piling draft picks while not a bad idea, still won't cure the Redskins most pressing need. Quarterback is the most pressing need. I disagree that it's doubtful that the Redskins can get Luck or RG3. I will admit, Luck may be out of reach. But Rg3 isn't. For one Mike Shanahan and Rams coach Jeff Fisher go back to their days with the 49ers. So, they know each other well. If Mike Shanahan is offering the Redskins 6th pick in the draft in addition to a Redskins 1st round selection in 2013, then they can agree to a trade in order for Washington to move up to 2nd in the draft. The Rams can more than likely still come away with Justin Blackmon or Matt Khali at the 6th pick. And in exchange, the Redskins can come away with RG3 with the second pick.

Back in 2004, the Giants offered San Diego a boat load of draft selections to land Eli Manning. After leading the Giants to two super Bowls, I'd say that decision to trade up was a good one for the G-men.

I think Bruce Allen and Mike Shanahan know that they have quite a problem at quarterback. Both of them are great football men. I'm sure they know what important moves they must make in order to better the Redskins.

Re: Peyton Manning or RGIII your choice
 

[quote=Lotus;884473]Nobody said that folks like Clayton know everything. If people like him did, they'd be GM's, not TV reporters.

But, on the other hand, they still put out a lot of effort, so just dismissing them is as disrespectful as it is foolish.[/quote]

I said it more or less being a smart ass since kid has been riding my balls this whole thread. Had I known the Clayton E-knight crew was going to rush in to save the day, I would have kept my mouth shut...lol

Re: Peyton Manning or RGIII your choice
 

RGIII, If I knew manning was 100% it'd be different, but I've never heard so much FUD in my life.

Re: Peyton Manning or RGIII your choice
 

[quote=biffle;884439]As for the 30gut thing earlier, I made an attempt to explain to him how he was completely misusing a statistic,[/quote]You made a horrible failed attempt to make a strawman argument.

Its not misuse to quote a well known stat.

However its kinda bad form to make false assumptions and claims then turn around and claim that your false assumptions represent my point.

I don't understand how you can get this:
[quote=biffle;884208]The real world doesn't work that way. Griffin has virtually nothing in common with Ryan Leaf or Jamarcus Russell, whether you're looking at backgrounds, education, skillset, production, character or temperments. Not to mention, Griffin will be stepping into a situation that will likely bear little resemblence to what the other 2 walked into.

So, to suggest the former's chances of success decline by some percentage because of the failures of the latter two is really wrongheaded, at absolute best.[/quote]

From this:

[quote=30gut;884201]With Griffin the gamble is the same as with any rookie QB where historically the success rate is right around 50/50 its even lower when using the 'franchise' QB or 'elite' QB label as the measure of success.[/quote]

Without thinking that people will view your posts as somewhat disingenuous.

Re: Peyton Manning or RGIII your choice
 

This would have been a better thread if I was giving the option to trade up for luck or manning. I'd give up the picks for luck but not for rg3

Re: Peyton Manning or RGIII your choice
 

'50% of 1st round QBs succeed' is a statistic.

Using that to say 'Griffin has a 50% chance of success' is a terrible use of that statistic. And using it as a basis for draft decisions even more so.

I tried to show you examples to illustrate that, but it seemed pretty clear you weren't going to listen regardless so I gave up.

Re: Peyton Manning or RGIII your choice
 

[IMG]http://www.necro-equine-sadism.com/beating-a-dead-horse.jpg[/IMG]

Re: Peyton Manning or RGIII your choice
 

[quote=SBXVII;884390] [url=http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/players/1620788/robert-griffin-iii]Robert Griffin III, Baylor, NFL Draft - CBSSports.com - NFLDraftScout.com[/url]

They say a lot of great things about him and his accuracy and strength but...

Will KS expect him to roll out more or expect him to stay in the pocket like he did a more mobile Beck? I'd expect stay in the pocket.[/quote]When Beck was in Kyle called more roll outs.
You admit that Griffin is mobile therefore why would you expect Kyle to keep Griffin in the pocket?
QB movement plays long been a staple of Mike Shanahan's offense.
Cutler, Plummer, Elway and Young all made tons of plays off Making boot-action and sprint-out movement passes.


[quote=SBXVII;884390] Now I'll admit I took only the negative comments and posted them........So I'm pointing out his flaws only because as some would make it sound ... he has none and he's a franchise QB because of it or will be.[/quote]Scouts are all gonna have their opinions about the QB prospects.
Even though you admit to only posting the negatives and rationalize your reason for doing so your post still comes off as a hatchet job.
And any scouting opinion you give about any prospect can appear negative if you cut+paste only the negative comments and use those comments to steer your opinion of the prospect.

[quote=SBXVII;884390]No my point is that some of these faults are the basis for our scheme which he supposedly fits into.[/quote]No QBs [I][B]faults[/B][/I] lend themselves towards being a fit into [I]any[/I] scheme and every QB has faults.
But forming an opinion or determining scheme fit based only a prospects faults is imo a poor way to make an evaluation.

[quote=Bill Walsh]"I instructed everyone scouting that I wanted to know what the redeeming quality is that this person has that will help us win," "Don't tell me what he can't do. Tell me what he can do."[/quote]

However Griffin skillset is a direct fit for our offense or any other.

I'm sure you read this:

[quote=good stuff about Griffin]Accuracy: A natural passer with very good accuracy and ball placement, especially on the run. Has very good downfield touch with beautiful deep ball accuracy. Impressive feel on bucket and long throws.

Setup/Release: Has a quick release and does a nice job with play fakes. Gutsy and fearless, standing tall in the pocket even when he knows the hit is coming.

Reading Defenses: Sees the entire field and works through his progressions, manipulating the pocket and keeping his eyes downfield.

On the Move: An elite athlete with quick feet and superior speed ? smooth, flexible and leggy. [I][B][COLOR="Sienna"]Has magic escapability and adds an extra dimension with his legs. Makes something out of nothing,[/COLOR][/B][/I] keeping defenders off balance and forcing poor angles because of his jets. Very good patience, vision and instincts as a runner with football toughness ? more than simply a track athlete.

Intangibles: Exudes the natural leadership and confidence on the field that teammates respond to and follow. Very tough-minded and not afraid to take chances. Never allows himself to get too high or too low and the situation never seems too much. A determined passer ? thrower first and runner second. Very smart in the classroom and his intelligence translates well to the field ? graduated from Baylor in Dec. 2010 with a degree in political science and is currently working on his master?s degree. He possesses ?wow? [I][B][COLOR="sienna"]playmaking ability[/COLOR][/B][/I] with a clutch gene. Plays poised and in control late in games and is comfortable in the ?big? moment. Griffin is a team-first guy and is highly competitive. Winner and leads by example. Has off-the-chart intangibles and coaches rave about his work ethic, practice habits and overall character. Has very good starting experience as a three-year starter (40 career starts) and was the youngest starting quarterback in college football in 2008. Highly productive at the college level and set or tied 54 school records at Baylor and several other NCAA marks ? one of only three players in college football history to throw for 10,000+ passing yds and rush for 2,000+ yds in his career (Dan LeFevour, Colin Kaepernick). In 2011, Griffin led the Bears to their first bowl win since 1992 and was the first Heisman Trophy winner from Baylor since 1963. He set several records in track ? in both high school and college. Is he fully committed to football? (Olympics, track, academics)[/quote]

[quote=Bill Walsh]The single trait that separates great quarterbacks from good quarterbacks is the ability to make the great, spontaneous decision, especially at a crucial time. The clock is running down and your team is five points behind. The play that was called has broken down and 22 players are moving in almost unpredictable directions all over the field.

This is where the great quarterback uses his experience, vision, mobility and what we will call spontaneous genius. He makes something good happen. This, of course, is what we saw in Joe Montana when he pulled out those dramatic victories for Notre Dame.[/quote]

Re: Peyton Manning or RGIII your choice
 

[quote=biffle;884492]'50% of 1st round QBs succeed' is a statistic.

Using that to say 'Griffin has a 50% chance of success' is a terrible use of that statistic. And using it as a basis for draft decisions even more so.

I tried to show you examples to illustrate that, but it seemed pretty clear you weren't going to listen regardless so I gave up.[/quote]

Point taken, but define "succeed"?

Did Jason Campbell succeed? Did Carson Palmer? Did Vince Young? Did Chad Pennington? Is Mark Sanchez succeeding?

Looking at 1st round QBs over history, you've got plenty of guys who flopped, call it 50%. And you have plenty of guys who stuck around as QBs and performed well, but were never able to win anything. What you have very, very few of is stars.

And Manning is a STAR. The biggest.

Do you want to sign up for a guy who gets us to a few division titles and the divisional round of the playoffs? Maybe Griffin is more of a lock than other QB prospects, but you have to acknowledge the likelihood.

And I ask you, what's more likely. That Manning will never be himself again, or that Griffin will not become a stud?

Re: Peyton Manning or RGIII your choice
 

[quote=biffle;884492]'50% of 1st round QBs succeed' is a statistic.

Using that to say 'Griffin has a 50% chance of success' is a terrible use of that statistic. And using it as a basis for draft decisions even more so.

I tried to show you examples to illustrate that, but it seemed pretty clear you weren't going to listen regardless so I gave up.[/quote]C'mon now you're gonna play semantics?
Dude just use the quote feature.
My statement is as I intend is right here:
[quote]With Griffin the gamble is the same as with any rookie QB where historically the success rate is right around 50/50 its even lower when using the 'franchise' QB or 'elite' QB label as the measure of success[/quote]
No need to add or spin it or make assumptions from it.

And again:
[quote=30gut;884243]And the larger point, which is lost on you, is that Peyton Manning has [I]already[/I] [I]proven[/I] himself to be what we hope Griffin will [I][B]become[/B][/I].[/quote]

Re: Peyton Manning or RGIII your choice
 

[quote=Schneed10;884497]Point taken, but define "succeed"?

Did Jason Campbell succeed? Did Carson Palmer? Did Vince Young? Did Chad Pennington? Is Mark Sanchez succeeding?

Looking at 1st round QBs over history, you've got plenty of guys who flopped, call it 50%. And you have plenty of guys who stuck around as QBs and performed well, but were never able to win anything. What you have very, very few of is stars.

And Manning is a STAR. The biggest.

Do you want to sign up for a guy who gets us to a few division titles and the divisional round of the playoffs? Maybe Griffin is more of a lock than other QB prospects, but you have to acknowledge the likelihood.

And I ask you, what's more likely. That Manning will never be himself again, or that Griffin will not become a stud?[/quote]

Some of those questions you'll have to ask of people who want to use that 50% success number. I don't, so I'm not going to spend any time breaking down the particulars of something I think is basically worthless.

Manning certainly was great. Will he be again? Who knows. And who knows if the odds of that are better than of Griffin being great in the pros. But are you even discussing the Manning of now? Because even in 2010 Manning was still very good, but that performance might not get him into the Pro Bowl in the NFC right now. And do we think he's going to be better now than he was then, after a year off and in a new environment?

All of which is irrelevant to my thinking, because I think Manning, even if totally healthy, provides such a small window to win, and one in which he is likely to decline as the team is able to build around him. It's not a recipe for success, imo.

And no, division titles aren't worth much to me. The goal should be Super Bowls, and the team should be building towards them. Which is not the likely path I see with Peyton Manning.

Re: Peyton Manning or RGIII your choice
 

It seems like some posters have beef with other posters.

Re: Peyton Manning or RGIII your choice
 

[quote=diehard;884503]It seems like some posters have beef with other posters.[/quote]

No one invited me over for beef.

Re: Peyton Manning or RGIII your choice
 

i'll be praying in the bathroom if anyone needs me