Re: Redskins: 2012 Off-Season-Free Agency/Trades
 

[quote=Bubba305-ST21-;891809]yea your right about kerrigan, i read that wrong. Your right, age is definitely something to think about but not this young imo. [B]I just dont think it is something you can predict when a guys ability starts to fall.[/B][/quote]You are right, it's definitely tougher to predict player decline than player development. I do not doubt that NFL teams have advanced systems that help frame their own film evaluations in context that lead to conclusions such as "if Donovan McNabb has anything left, he's not going to be able to show it in our QB-dependant system."

As some guy with the internet who doesn't have anything but stats, game tape, and scout opinion to lean on, I still go way more off gut feel with regards to "is player X done as an NFL starter?" than I would like. For example: is Chris Cooley done as a starting TE in the NFL? Probably. But how much money would I actually put on that opinion? Not much. He's only going to be 30 this year. It's just that he was last an elite TE at age 26.

But, by far, the most reliable figures when predicting decline are a guys age and how long he's been in the league. After that (and to back your point), it's a lot about looking for trends where they may not exist -- hunting statistical ghosts, as it were, and seeing if any vital skills are diminishing.

Hines Ward doesn't catch more than half of his balls more than five yards downfield anymore, so he's probably done as a starting NFL receiver. Sometimes I get it right: I thought Torry Holt was toast after the 2008 season, and he was. Other times, I say that Brett Favre is done after that same season, and get it completely wrong.

Re: Redskins: 2012 Off-Season-Free Agency/Trades
 

i'm more of a gutman as well. i was surprised at how long fred taylor lasted, especially considering his injury history

Re: Redskins: 2012 Off-Season-Free Agency/Trades
 

[url=http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2012/03/04/report-vincent-jackson-almost-certain-to-avoid-franchise-tag/]Report: Vincent Jackson “almost certain” to avoid franchise tag | ProFootballTalk[/url]

Re: Redskins: 2012 Off-Season-Free Agency/Trades
 

VJax will get a big deal somewhere.

Marshawn Lynch signs his deal believe 18M guaranteed

Re: Redskins: 2012 Off-Season-Free Agency/Trades
 

4 years 31 million for Lynch. Shouldn't be in the Redskins thread though.

Re: Redskins: 2012 Off-Season-Free Agency/Trades
 

[quote=EARTHQUAKE2689;891889]4 years 31 million for Lynch. Shouldn't be in the Redskins thread though.[/quote]

Well lets put it this way. The Skins paid what seemed to be double that for the same production from Portis.

Re: Redskins: 2012 Off-Season-Free Agency/Trades
 

I wouldn't be surprised if Vincent Jackson wants to re-sign with the Chargers, but yet wants to know for sure how many other NFL teams are willing to pay him more money than San Diego for his services. I'm sure Mike Shanahan and Bruce Allen have their sights on Jackson as well as Garcon, and Colston as well.

Re: Redskins: 2012 Off-Season-Free Agency/Trades
 

portis was a very good rb for many years

Re: Redskins: 2012 Off-Season-Free Agency/Trades
 

I had a dream we signed Jarvis Green. That was weird because everyone called it the greatest signing in history.

Re: Redskins: 2012 Off-Season-Free Agency/Trades
 

I'd be surprised if VJax is in SD next year.

Re: Redskins: 2012 Off-Season-Free Agency/Trades
 

[url=http://www.nfl.com/news/story/09000d5d8275ff73/article/browns-redskins-reportedly-have-limits-in-rg3-chase?module=HP11_headline_stack]NFL.com news: Browns, Redskins reportedly have limits in RG3 chase[/url]

Looks like Skins and Rams both want this settled before FA.

Re: Redskins: 2012 Off-Season-Free Agency/Trades
 

[quote=rypper11;892203][url=http://www.nfl.com/news/story/09000d5d8275ff73/article/browns-redskins-reportedly-have-limits-in-rg3-chase?module=HP11_headline_stack]NFL.com news: Browns, Redskins reportedly have limits in RG3 chase[/url]

Looks like Skins and Rams both want this settled before FA.[/quote]i didn't get that from the article. i don't understand why they would settle before the draft

Re: Redskins: 2012 Off-Season-Free Agency/Trades
 

To me it seems as though this deal will wait until draft day or at least until some moves are made in FA to settle the field a little more. The Skins and the Browns have made their pre FA offers and the Rams have yet to accept any of them. This will play out later on down the road.

Re: Redskins: 2012 Off-Season-Free Agency/Trades
 

[quote=artmonkforhallofamein07;892220]To me it seems as though this deal will wait until draft day or at least until some moves are made in FA to settle the field a little more. The Skins and the Browns have made their pre FA offers and the Rams have yet to accept any of them. This will play out later on down the road.[/quote]that's the angle i'm looking at. what are some other angles?