Re: Around the NFL Week 15
 

[quote=Jontrem;868337]This could be like Cansenco only worse. If anyone on our team is on that list I can see them getting cut.[/quote]

To think that players aren't using recreational drugs is a bit naive to say the least. They most likely don't care unless they get caught. When you have money, and you enjoy the night life (clubs, hot women) than chances are high that drugs will be around you in some sort of form/fashion.

Re: Around the NFL Week 15
 

[quote=NC_Skins;868338]To think that players aren't using recreational drugs is a bit naive to say the least. They most likely don't care unless they get caught. When you have money, and you enjoy the night life (clubs, hot women) than chances are high that drugs will be around you in some sort of form/fashion.[/quote]

Yup... we were discussing this in the TW/FD thread last week. I made a point that many players would do harder drugs over marijuana... because the former leaves the body in a day or two (and is harder to catch on the league's drug tests). The Hurd list is just the tip of the ice berg.

Re: Around the NFL Week 15
 

[quote=NC_Skins;868335]And your excuse for the other 22 teams that bypassed him?


If you don't count on "falls", than don't count on top 5 talent panning out either. That works both ways.[/quote]
Methinks you need to brush up on what a game of chance is about.

Top 5 talent is about as reliable as a coin flip.

Bottom 15 of the first round talent is about as reliable as a die.

Betting on coin flip>betting on die.

Re: Around the NFL Week 15
 

Although neither of those probabilies is close to accurate.

Re: Around the NFL Week 15
 

If you define a bust as a player who starts (is his team's primary starter) for three or fewer seasons, then [URL="http://www.pro-football-reference.com/play-index/draft-finder.cgi?request=1&year_min=2002&year_max=2011&type=&round_min=1&round_max=30&slot_min=1&slot_max=10&league_id=&team_id=&pos=ALL&college_id=all&conference=any&show=all"]from 2002-2007 only thirteen players busted[/URL] in the top ten, about two per year. And teams are doing a far better job rating talent at the top of the draft now vs. ten years ago.

It's significantly lower in the rest of the round, but a lot better than a coin flip until about the third round, when it's pretty much a coin flip whether you get a roster piece or a bust. After that, good orgs typically do better on Day 3 than poor ones, but no one is consistently pulling 50% after that.

Re: Around the NFL Week 15
 

[quote=GTripp0012;868351]If you define a bust as a player who starts (is his team's primary starter) for three or fewer seasons, then [URL="http://www.pro-football-reference.com/play-index/draft-finder.cgi?request=1&year_min=2002&year_max=2011&type=&round_min=1&round_max=30&slot_min=1&slot_max=10&league_id=&team_id=&pos=ALL&college_id=all&conference=any&show=all"]from 2002-2007 only thirteen players busted[/URL] in the top ten, about two per year. And teams are doing a far better job rating talent at the top of the draft now vs. ten years ago.

[/quote]

The stats of "played longer" is a bit misleading and many factors involved here. A guy selected at #24 isn't going to get the same type of lead way a guy drafted #1 is. You think they'd cut Bradford after guaranteeing him 50 mil? I seriously doubt it. Hell, it took JaMarcus Dummy 3 years to finally get the boot. It's also the same reason 1st rounders last longer in the league than say a 3rd rounder. Alex Smith is still starting and why? Because he was a #1 pick and was paid a ton of money. Had he been a late first round or a 2nd rounder, he'd been cut/shipped out loooong ago.


edit: That may soon change with the salary of top rookies being limited. Even so, a #1 spot is still a heavy investment when it comes to resources and teams are doing to do everything in their power to make it work, even if it means keeping them longer than they want.

Re: Around the NFL Week 15
 

[quote=NC_Skins;868352]The stats of "played longer" is a bit misleading and many factors involved here. A guy selected at #24 isn't going to get the same type of lead way a guy drafted #1 is. You think they'd cut Bradford after guaranteeing him 50 mil? I seriously doubt it. Hell, it took JaMarcus Dummy 3 years to finally get the boot. It's also the same reason 1st rounders last longer in the league than say a 3rd rounder. Alex Smith is still starting and why? Because he was a #1 pick and was paid a ton of money. Had he been a late first round or a 2nd rounder, he'd been cut/shipped out loooong ago.


edit: That may soon change with the salary of top rookies being limited. Even so, a #1 spot is still a heavy investment when it comes to resources and teams are doing to do everything in their power to make it work, even if it means keeping them longer than they want.[/quote]I don't really agree with his definition of a bust, but w/e.

Even so, quarterbacks always get a longer leash, even if they're late first rounders like JP Losman or Chad Pennington.

Besides, D. McFadden and R. McClain are Raiders in part due to JaMarcus being just that bad.

[QUOTE=CrustyRedskin;868241]Jay Ratliff went off on reporter Calvin Watkin(who i love cause he shows the Cowboys no mercy) in the lockeroom yesterday they had to be physicaly seperated when Watkins asked Ratliff about his relationship with Sam Hurd. I think its safe to say there's a few puckered up at Valley Ranch.[/QUOTE]

Maybe there's some puck factor going on and I love making fun of the cowboys as much as the next guy,but the boys haven't had 2 players suspended for weed(not counting other years :) )
I'd imagine the puck factor is pretty high in DC also


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Re: Around the NFL Week 15
 

[url=http://www.thepostgame.com/blog/dish/201112/nfl-star-becomes-bookworm-after-prison-sentence]As The Bookworm Turns: Jets Receiver Plaxico Burress Picks Up Reading After Prison Sentence | ThePostGame[/url]

Re: Around the NFL Week 15
 

Boy this'll be the week the Bucs turn it around. :doh:

Re: Around the NFL Week 15
 

Raheem Morris -----door that away------>


NEXT.

Re: Around the NFL Week 15
 

Oh fantastic. Nothing warms my heart like a Tony Romo lovefest on national TV. :doh:

Re: Around the NFL Week 15
 

Bucs are pathetic, they've quit. I'm sure Haynesworth is the motivator :) couldn't happened to a better fat ****!!

Re: Around the NFL Week 15
 

Romo is a stud, his numbers career wise are legit

Re: Around the NFL Week 15
 

[quote=NC_Skins;868352]The stats of "played longer" is a bit misleading and many factors involved here. A guy selected at #24 isn't going to get the same type of lead way a guy drafted #1 is. You think they'd cut Bradford after guaranteeing him 50 mil? I seriously doubt it. Hell, it took JaMarcus Dummy 3 years to finally get the boot. It's also the same reason 1st rounders last longer in the league than say a 3rd rounder. Alex Smith is still starting and why? Because he was a #1 pick and was paid a ton of money. Had he been a late first round or a 2nd rounder, he'd been cut/shipped out loooong ago.


edit: That may soon change with the salary of top rookies being limited. Even so, a #1 spot is still a heavy investment when it comes to resources and teams are doing to do everything in their power to make it work, even if it means keeping them longer than they want.[/quote]I don't think Bradford is in danger of being released after this season, no. But will he make it to four years as a primary starter in the NFL? Not without improvement.

Alex Smith is not still starting because of his draft position. In the first four years of his career, Alex Smith started 30 games. In the last three years, he has started 33 games. His playing time is actually more consistent now than it was when he was the golden boy first overall pick.

The bias towards high picks is real, but I think I was able to set the bar high enough where most busts don't qualify. Sure, setting the bar at 4 years as primary starter means that a guy like Levi Brown is not considered a bust, but you can live with that for objective purposes.

Where using the "years as starter" metric probably ceases to be useful is deeper in the draft where guys don't have a shot to start early in their careers. But limited to first rounders only, I think the snapshot is accurate.