Re: QB or BPA for our #1 Draft Pick - 2020
 

LT is our best bang for the buck. If Thomas is as good as they say he needs to be our first pick. Our D's main issue isnt player quality it is coaching. You saw it repeatedly yesterday where there was confusion. At the least the coach has to have the players ready for goal line stands.

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Re: QB or BPA for our #1 Draft Pick - 2020
 

[QUOTE=CRedskinsRule;1239693]LT is our best bang for the buck. If Thomas is as good as they say he needs to be our first pick. Our D's main issue isnt player quality it is coaching. You saw it repeatedly yesterday where there was confusion. At the least the coach has to have the players ready for goal line stands.

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Yeah, the DC coaching is just terrible. In the Red Zone they leave UNCOVERED their best pass catcher: Ertnz. What was that about? That’s football 101 stuff. He should have been doubled teamed!


Earlier in the game the Eagles roasted us with a screen pass to the right. Excellent yardage. What do they do next? Same play and great gain! They ran the screen play to both sides at least 4-5 times and gained at least 6 yards or more every time. Manusky has a minimal ability to make adjustments. I consider Greg Manusky one of the WORST DC’s in the NFL. This defense would raise into the top 50% of the NFL just with a good DC.


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Re: QB or BPA for our #1 Draft Pick - 2020
 

We seem to have this fascination with having the highest draft pick possible, and yet there isn't a correlation between being drafted high and having major success in the NFL. I don't care where we pick as long as we use the draft pick wisely.

Re: QB or BPA for our #1 Draft Pick - 2020
 

[quote=mooby;1239701]We seem to have this fascination with having the highest draft pick possible, and yet there isn't a correlation between being drafted high and having major success in the NFL. I don't care where we pick as long as we use the draft pick wisely.[/quote]

The higher the pick the more options you have to use it wisely.

Re: QB or BPA for our #1 Draft Pick - 2020
 

[quote=mooby;1239701]We seem to have this fascination with having the highest draft pick possible, and yet [B]there isn't a correlation between being drafted high and having major success in the NFL[/B]. I don't care where we pick as long as we use the draft pick wisely.[/quote]

This is patently and statistically wrong and just against common sense.

The higher the pick, the higher chance that player is a starter and/or pro bowler. Perhaps your argument is 1 1st rounder = 2 2nd rounders = 3 3r? Still, give me the 1st rounder all day, especially if its the skins picking.

The variance? Some teams draft better, some teams develop better, some teams keep the same coaching staff/system so a player drafted 4 years ago still fits the scheme.

Thats why Im not a fan of trading back .. the skins have a better chance of not screwing up.


------------------------------
“Picking at the end of the second round only gives your team a 50 percent chance of finding a starter,” According to a study via datascopeanalytics.com, that analyzes 50 years worth of drafting. This is a big dropoff from the first 15 picks which generates starters between 80-90 percent of the time. On the other hand, “going towards the end of the third round, your chance of finding a starter falls to (about) 30 percent.”

The further down you go in rounds, the lower the percentage gets. “The data shows that finding a starter in Round 6 or 7 is only 10–20 percent.”
[url]https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2431195-the-hidden-advantage-of-being-a-high-nfl-draft-pick[/url]
----------------------------------------

86 players in total were named Pro Bowlers. Excluding special teams players that’s 78 Pro Bowl players. How many of them were high draft picks? How many were high profile free agent signees?

2019 Pro Bowl Roster Evaluation

45 Pro Bowlers were first round picks (25 in AFC, 20 in NFC)

4 number one overall picks (Jadaveon Clowney, Eric Fisher, Myles Garrett, Jared Goff)

3 undrafted free agents (Philip Lindsay, Alejandro Villanueva, Adam Thielen) – Lindsay also became the first undrafted rookie

4 of the 6 quarterbacks were first round picks (Aaron Rodgers, Jared Goff, Patrick Mahomes, Philip Rivers). The other 2 QBs were Tom Brady (6th) and Drew Brees (2nd)

4 of the 6 running backs were first round picks. All three NFC running backs were first round, top 10 draft picks (Ezekiell Elliot, Saquon Barkley, Todd Gurley). Two of the three AFC running backs began training camp as a presumed back ups (James Connor and Philip Lindsay). Melvin Gordon was the other first round pick.

There were 8 Wide Receivers selected in total only two (one from each conference) were previous first round picks – DeAndre Hopkins and Julio Jones. Davante Adams and Michael Thomas were both taken in the second round. Keenan Allen (3), Tyreek Hill (5), Antonio Brown (6), and Adam Thielen (undrafted) round out the receivers.

6 of the 8 Cornerbacks selected, were first round picks, and the other 2 were second round picks. First rounders – Patrick Peterson, Byron Jones, Kyle Fuller, Jalen Ramsey, Stephen Gilmore, Denzel Ward. Xavien Howard and Darius Slay were both second rounders.

All 3 AFC Defense Ends (Myles Garrett, Melvin Ingram, JJ Watt) were first round draft picks.

Out of the 8 AFC Offensive Lineman, 6 were first round picks. Out of the 8 NFC Offensive Lineman, 4 were first round picks, 1 second rounder, and three third round picks. Only 1 of the 4 Centers has not left the team that drafted them (Maurkice Pouncey in Pittsburgh)

Only 12 out of the 78 non-special teams players in the Pro Bowl are representing a team that did not draft them (they signed via free agency or were traded)

All 6 Outside Linebackers were first round picks (Von Miller, Jadaveon Clowney, Dee Ford, Khalil Mack, Ryan Kerrigan, Anthony barr)
[url]https://mikedropsports.com/evaluating-nfl-pro-bowlers-and-the-correlation-between-draft/[/url]
-------------------------------------------------

From 2000-2007:
1st R - 12.5 make pro bowl
2nd - 5.5
3rd- 2
4th - 2.3
5 - 1.6
6 - 1.5
7 - 0.75
UDFA - 4.1
[url]https://www.battleredblog.com/2011/4/27/2137559/odds-of-getting-a-pro-bowler-by-round-years-2000-2007[/url]

Re: QB or BPA for our #1 Draft Pick - 2020
 

Pro Bowl = watered down popularity contest.

Re: QB or BPA for our #1 Draft Pick - 2020
 

[quote=SunnySide;1239703]This is patently and statistically wrong and just against common sense.

<Lots of stats and math about the entire draft>

[/quote]

Kudos for doing all that hard work, perhaps I should clarify. Top 5 compared to the rest of the first rounders, what's the ratio? I don't care if we pick in the top 5 or top 10, you can still find all-pros anywhere you draft in the first round. This year's MVP and last year's MVP, where were both drafted? (I'll give you a hint, not in the top 5).

Re: QB or BPA for our #1 Draft Pick - 2020
 

If we were one player away from being a consistent playoff team then I would take that player. I think if they get a great offer to move down a few picks then I say trade down. I like more picks to help fill some of these holes. We need a LT, CB, TE or two, WR, S, RB (without knee problems), QB (backup) just to name a few. As much as I would like to have Young, we have a lot of needs we can fill with a great offer/trade down.

Re: QB or BPA for our #1 Draft Pick - 2020
 

[quote=skinsfan69;1239704]Pro Bowl = watered down popularity contest.[/quote]

I agree for the most part. Making the All-Pro team matters more.

Re: QB or BPA for our #1 Draft Pick - 2020
 

I would trade our top 3 pick and make a team pay dearly.. we get there number one this year.. there 2cnd rnd this year and there number 1 next year !!! I would do that hell yes!!

Re: QB or BPA for our #1 Draft Pick - 2020
 

[quote=rocnrik;1239731]I would trade our top 3 pick and make a team pay dearly.. we get there number one this year.. there 2cnd rnd this year and there number 1 next year !!! I would do that hell yes!![/quote]

not going to happen... I would be happy with a 2020 1st and 2nd to move 5 spots or so

Re: QB or BPA for our #1 Draft Pick - 2020
 

You may be right .. but there are very good teams out there who need a young QB for future (pats,packers,Steelers,etc who never pick early in a draft ( they usually pick 20-32). the temptation to grab a top QB may be to hard to resist..who knows ?.. I can tell you that after watching steelers they have nothing now at QB .. We need a TE bad! OL, did I say TE 😀, some help in secondary.. With redskins luck we take Young at number 3 and he gets hurt and that’s that ... I would rather have multiple picks with this team!

QB or BPA for our #1 Draft Pick - 2020
 

We’ll get a TE in FA. I think that the next HC will clean house on our FA. Out of our top 8 FA, only two are still playing. The solution is easy, trade and cut. We’ll open up tens of millions in cap room. Opening up cap room to hire new FA, will be a good entrancement to a prospective HC candidate.


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Re: QB or BPA for our #1 Draft Pick - 2020
 

As I said before, this team needs stars, not trading down for low picks. We need a star at OT, we have journeymen now.


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Re: QB or BPA for our #1 Draft Pick - 2020
 

[quote=Warthog;1239761]As I said before, this team needs stars, not trading down for low picks. We need a star at OT, we have journeymen now.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk[/quote]

Stars like RG3, Dotson, Guice, Anderson? They should be able to get good players in the mid-first round, 2nd, 3rd, and 4th rounds too. One star will not turn around this team.

FWIW... there are 3 or 4 very good tackles in this draft.

Re: QB or BPA for our #1 Draft Pick - 2020
 

[quote=Irrefutable;1239765]Stars like RG3, Dotson, Guice, Anderson? They should be able to get good players in the mid-first round, 2nd, 3rd, and 4th rounds too. One star will not turn around this team.

FWIW... there are 3 or 4 very good tackles in this draft.[/quote]

Only 1 of those was a top 5 pick ... and it was made by the owner against the football wishes of the people hired at that time to make football decisions. And he won the only rookie of the year ever for the skins.

Kinda proved the point .. the chances of drafting a star or even starter decrease the farther down the draft the pick is made. You could have nick bosa or Brian Burns+Jahlani Tavai. Give me Nick all day.

Brian Burns might be a nice 10 year starter w a few pro bowls .. Nick Bosa may be a d MVP and HOF. I can find a Brian Burns .. hell I could pay Preston Smith or Z Smith in FA and get the same if not better production. I cannot sign a potential MVP in FA. Those are hard to come by.

Not all 22 starters can be All Pro and every position is important but you do need super stars at impact positions. QB, LT, DE, WR, CB. If you have a chance to add a potential A+ HOF player at one of these positions, you do it and dont worry about adding trading down to add a nice B mlb and a B- cb.

This draft's top 5 have potential impact players at QB, LT, CB, DE and possibly WR.

We are picking in the top 5 (3-4 overall).

Take the potential stud LT or CB who should be there.

Re: QB or BPA for our #1 Draft Pick - 2020
 

[quote=Warthog;1239761]As I said before, this team needs stars, not trading down for low picks. We need a star at OT, we have journeymen now.


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Eh, we had a SUPERSTAR LT for years and we didn't really win shit.

Re: QB or BPA for our #1 Draft Pick - 2020
 

[quote=skinsfaninok;1239785]Eh, we had a SUPERSTAR LT for years and we didn't really win shit.[/quote]

Not a great point. Trent was definitely not the problem. We didn't win shit because we couldn't put enough good pieces on the field, we couldn't hang onto the one decent QB we had, our coaches were average at scheming (below average on defense), we had shitty culture, the players we paid ended up hurt super often (Reed) etc etc.

Get the star OT and then be better elsewhere, starting with culture. You can win that way. Saying the Superstar OT didn't help us is tossing the baby out with the bathwater.

Re: QB or BPA for our #1 Draft Pick - 2020
 

[quote=Schneed10;1239786]Not a great point. Trent was definitely not the problem. We didn't win shit because we couldn't put enough good pieces on the field, we couldn't hang onto the one decent QB we had, our coaches were average at scheming (below average on defense), we had shitty culture, the players we paid ended up hurt super often (Reed) etc etc.

Get the star OT and then be better elsewhere, starting with culture. You can win that way. Saying the Superstar OT didn't help us is tossing the baby out with the bathwater.[/quote]

No doubt I was just saying that a star LT doesn't necessarily mean you can be a consistent winner. The culture has been the problem from day 1, until that changes we could draft Jesus and nothing would come of it

Re: QB or BPA for our #1 Draft Pick - 2020
 

I wanted to add, my thought of keeping the top 5 pick is not anymore right or wrong than wanting to trade back and get more picks. If you draft a cant miss blue chip like Robert Gallery, obviously you wish you traded back. It depends on who is doing the picking, avoiding freak injuries etc

But as a rule, if I have a top 5 or 10, I want to stay in the top 5 or 10 (as a skins fan). I do think each draft has a shelf and drop off in talent. Maybe this year its 5 players, maybe last year it was 12, maybe a top 10 talent like Derwin James or Jonathan Allen drops to you at no. 16 for some reason.

Maybe if im a more competent organization, Id lean more towards trading down.

Re: QB or BPA for our #1 Draft Pick - 2020
 

top 5 pick has a lot of value this draft. The chance to draft Tua might drive a team to trade 2 1s and multiple 2 or 3.

The closer we get, Tau will become the prospect teams will splurge for...if we have new GM and Staff...if we don’t take tua, we should hold the pick for ransom

Re: QB or BPA for our #1 Draft Pick - 2020
 

[QUOTE=skinsfaninok;1239785]Eh, we had a SUPERSTAR LT for years and we didn't really win shit

I agree!! Question to you guys .. if we have (not likely) but let’s say we land number one pick WHO you gonna take??

Re: QB or BPA for our #1 Draft Pick - 2020
 

[quote=Chico23231;1239834]top 5 pick has a lot of value this draft. The chance to draft Tua might drive a team to trade 2 1s and multiple 2 or 3.

The closer we get, Tau will become the prospect teams will splurge for...if we have new GM and Staff...if we don’t take tua, we should hold the pick for ransom[/quote]

I said that and was told ain’t gonna happen ... my gut says we will make a blockbuster draft day trade and load up .. two 1’s a 2cnd and 3rd maybe more ..

Re: QB or BPA for our #1 Draft Pick - 2020
 

Burrow or Young, otherwise trade down.

Re: QB or BPA for our #1 Draft Pick - 2020
 

I don't know about Tua, how many 21 year olds get severe hip injuries? I thought that was something 80 year olds get. I think it is a major red flag.

Re: QB or BPA for our #1 Draft Pick - 2020
 

What happened to Justin Herbert being the next Peyton Manning? Could we go after him?


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Re: QB or BPA for our #1 Draft Pick - 2020
 

I won't be mad if we trade down.

But if Thomas or Young is available when we pick, and we pass on them, I'd be pretty disappointed. If you're gonna pass on getting a stud at 2 of the most important positions in the game, you better nail your other picks.

Re: QB or BPA for our #1 Draft Pick - 2020
 

[QUOTE=5superbowls3wins;1239853]What happened to Justin Herbert being the next Peyton Manning? Could we go after him?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk[/QUOTE]He's another Josh Allen, big arm but no accuracy

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Re: QB or BPA for our #1 Draft Pick - 2020
 

[quote=skinsfaninok;1239866]He's another Josh Allen, big arm but no accuracy

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I always thought Herbert was overrated as a pro prospect. I think Tua is too. I could obviously be wrong, but I'd rather have Haskins then either one of them if they were all in the draft last year or this year.

Re: QB or BPA for our #1 Draft Pick - 2020
 

Tua is deadly accurate but hes injury prone already.. Not a good look for a QB.

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Re: QB or BPA for our #1 Draft Pick - 2020
 

Thomas fills a huge need and is almost bpa. Plus our d being on the field so much because of our piss poor O is a problem so in a way he would help both sides of the ball. That being said if Chase Young is available you have to take him and than use the rest of the draft and every dollar in free agency to help the offense. TE, o line with every pick and dollar.

Re: QB or BPA for our #1 Draft Pick - 2020
 

McShay has us taking Jeudy in his first mock draft

Re: QB or BPA for our #1 Draft Pick - 2020
 

[quote=MTK;1239918]McShay has us taking Jeudy in his first mock draft[/quote]

Wouldn't love that or hate it I suppose, great route runner and deep speed. I'd rather have LT there

Re: QB or BPA for our #1 Draft Pick - 2020
 

Jeudy and McLaurin would be a heck of a combo

Re: QB or BPA for our #1 Draft Pick - 2020
 

personally i wouldn't be on board with a WR for our first pick. Im in the camp of Young or trade

Re: QB or BPA for our #1 Draft Pick - 2020
 

[quote=MTK;1239921]Jeudy and McLaurin would be a heck of a combo[/quote]

For sure, now if Trent comes back I'm all for it

Re: QB or BPA for our #1 Draft Pick - 2020
 

I don't care what they do, take BPA or trade down. How often does the entire top 5 selections in the draft turn out to be worthy of their draft spot?

Re: QB or BPA for our #1 Draft Pick - 2020
 

You HAVE to take a LT if a high graded LT is there in the board when we pick. Silverback is not coming back. If we don’t win in the trenches, we won’t win anywhere. Look at what Dallas did a few years ago. Invested a TON into the o-line and their offense was firing on all cylinders. A good o-line makes your QB and position players better. Must be a priority.

Re: QB or BPA for our #1 Draft Pick - 2020
 

[QUOTE=MTK;1239921]Jeudy and McLaurin would be a heck of a combo[/QUOTE]Well if BA is still in the building he will fined a way to poison that duo.

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Re: QB or BPA for our #1 Draft Pick - 2020
 

[quote=CRedskinsRule;1239935]Well if BA is still in the building he will fined a way to poison that duo.

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I dont even think we would need BA to do that.

Player A makes 3.8M over 4 years with 1M guaranteed, Player B makes 33M over 4 yrs with 21M guaranteed.

Player A outperforms or is equal to Player B.

Player A may hold out after 2 years. Team tells player A we will not talk money while youre on a rookie contract.

Drama ensues.