Re: Ukraine mega thread
 

[quote=Chico23231;1318105]Ukraine is slow and steady losing group on the eastern front and doesn’t have the ability to retake land…

While Russia performance hasn’t been great, they aren’t exactly losing.[/quote]


Ukraine killing Russian troops

Russia killing innocent women and children



chico tell me again who is winning.

Re: Ukraine mega thread
 

[quote=CRedskinsRule;1318107]Russia has lost ground at the north and south of the contested area in order to put massive amount of fire power in small areas. If Ukraine was allowed to attack the attackers supply in Russia, like they should be allowed, then Russia would not be able to sustain the logistical support in the Donbas region. Once Ukraine is actually using Western arms and able to do more than tread water and delay, they will have the ability to go on the offensive in more locations.

Right now Russia's main advantage is that their supply routes are basically on Russian territory.

Neither side is winning right now, both are suffering heavy casualties and Ukraine's land is being systematically destroyed by an ongoing Russian terror campaign.[/quote]

It’s gonna be a grind. I know Russia pulled out of a bunch of positions north.

my question too is…are we ok with being the main financier of an unwinnable war?

Politically, Biden negotiated truce to end the war would be huge for him. At this point, if Ukraine cannot reclaim land on an east advance…which they haven’t been able to do…Why destroy the country and kill the innocent?

I would tell the Ukraines, you have to meet some threshold goals and give them a reasonable timeline.

Re: Ukraine mega thread
 

[quote=Chico23231;1318109]It’s gonna be a grind. I know Russia pulled out of a bunch of positions north.

my question too is…are we ok with being the main financier of an unwinnable war?

Politically, Biden negotiated truce to end the war would be huge for him. At this point, if Ukraine cannot reclaim land on an east advance…which they haven’t been able to do…Why destroy the country and kill the innocent?

I would tell the Ukraines, you have to meet some threshold goals and give them a reasonable timeline.[/quote]

I think it is in US interests to make sure Russia doesn't win so yes I'd continue to arm the Ukrainians for as long as it takes - that might (and probably will be) years. China is almost certainly looking at this.

BTW technically Russia's invasion is a violation of the UN charter. It is illegal for countries to wage wars of conquest (ie to seize territory to add to their own state) - which is why everyone and their mother went to war with Iraq in 1990-91 and supposedly the international community has an obligation (but not a requirement) to intervene.

Re: Ukraine mega thread
 

[quote=Chico23231;1318109]It’s gonna be a grind. I know Russia pulled out of a bunch of positions north.

my question too is…are we ok with being the main financier of an unwinnable war?

Politically, Biden negotiated truce to end the war would be huge for him. At this point, if Ukraine cannot reclaim land on an east advance…which they haven’t been able to do…Why destroy the country and kill the innocent?

I would tell the Ukraines, you have to meet some threshold goals and give them a reasonable timeline.[/quote]

How can you tell another country to accept the mass murder of their innocents, destruction of their infrastructure, and unprovoked aggression on their sovereign territory???? Would you be ok with surrendering Texas if Mexico was launching 200 missiles a day, killing Americans every day, advancing on our territory through blood and destruction?

Ukraine won't accept that, and they have shown they will fight with everything they have. What we do is irrelevant to their will to reclaim their territory. We can only aid or delay their fight. Personally, as I have said, I would give them the weapons they ask for and more, without restriction and allow them to take their land back. For the record, Russia is the one destroying that country and killing innocents, and it is also doing that regardless of what the rest of the world does.

It is a fallacy to say it is an unwinnable war. It is only unwinnable if you put unreasonable constraints on the Ukrainians. Allow them to attack the supply routes, the command centers, and force the Russians to fall back into their own country.

Re: Ukraine mega thread
 

[quote=nonniey;1318110]I think it is in US interests to make sure Russia doesn't win so yes I'd continue to arm the Ukrainians for as long as it takes - that might (and probably will be) years. China is almost certainly looking at this.

BTW technically Russia's invasion is a violation of the UN charter. It is illegal for countries to wage wars of conquest (ie to seize territory to add to their own state) - [B]which is why everyone and their mother went to war with Iraq in 1990-91 and supposedly the international community has an obligation (but not a requirement) to intervene[/B].[/quote]

This! This is not a Russia / NATO issue, it is a UN and international rule of law issue. The UN should have a role in forcing Russia to accept the international norm, unfortunately it is looking more like the league of nations then a foundation for a world that abides by international law.

Re: Ukraine mega thread
 

Good points..it’s a terrible situation. I think the one thing that’s been extremely disappointing is the Ukraines has been planning for this for years and have defensive lines on the east that have blunted the offensive from the Russians after they re organized, but it hasn’t been enough to to stop them.

Obviously I want the Ukraines to overcome

Re: Ukraine mega thread
 

[quote=CRedskinsRule;1318114]This! This is not a Russia / NATO issue, it is a UN and international rule of law issue. The UN should have a role in forcing Russia to accept the international norm, unfortunately it is looking more like the league of nations then a foundation for a world that abides by international law.[/quote]

Why is anyone shocked by this?

My god strategically Europe, especially the Germans fucked themselves. The Germans were laughing several years ago when told to remove themselves from Russian energy, Trump was right again

Re: Ukraine mega thread
 

[quote=CRedskinsRule;1318114]This! This is not a Russia / NATO issue, it is a UN and international rule of law issue. The UN should have a role in forcing Russia to accept the international norm, unfortunately it is looking more like the league of nations then a foundation for a world that abides by international law.[/quote]

Unfortunately the UN is similar to the League of Nations in its effectiveness in enforcing international law. Only on the rare occurrence when all five of the permanent members of the Security council agree (or in the case of Korea the one that would have vetoed was absent) is it effective.

Re: Ukraine mega thread
 

[quote=Chico23231;1318115]Good points..it’s a terrible situation. I think the one thing that’s been extremely disappointing is the Ukraines has been planning for this for years and have defensive lines on the east that have blunted the offensive from the Russians after they re organized, but it hasn’t been enough to to stop them.

Obviously I want the Ukraines to overcome[/quote]

The Russians are literally using soldiers of all ranks as canon fodder. There is a cheap android (probably iPhone too) game called art of war where the computer keeps adding minion attackers until it overwhelms you, something like a 100 to 1 ratio. That is effectively what Russia is doing. As to Ukraine preparing for it, they weren't able to buy western weapons or train with western militaries (for good reasons) so they only have their Soviet style equipment, which the west cannot resupply (different calibers/training etc). The Ukrainian strategy has been to hold ground and buy time until it has access to and is trained on the equipment from the west. They have done that effectively. Once they have the artillery, and more importantly the quantity of artillery shells, the game will change. Russia knows this, that is why they are shelling indiscriminately, to force a quick capitulation. But Ukraine clearly isn't doing that.

Re: Ukraine mega thread
 

[quote=Chico23231;1318116]Why is anyone shocked by this?

My god strategically Europe, especially the Germans fucked themselves. The Germans were laughing several years ago when told to remove themselves from Russian energy, Trump was right again[/quote]

PLEASE, I BEG, don't make this another Trump thread. 10's of thousands of Ukrainians are butchered, 100's of thousands dislocated. This is all about Putin's desire to be the next Peter the Great. And his willingness to do anything to achieve it.

Re: Ukraine mega thread
 

[quote=nonniey;1318117]Unfortunately the UN is similar to the League of Nations in its effectiveness in enforcing international law. Only on the rare occurrence when all five of the permanent members of the Security council agree (or in the case of Korea the one that would have vetoed was absent) is it effective.[/quote]

I actually wondered why the UN hasn't found a backhand way to do a similar absentee vote to enable something to be done. The UN charter clearly shows the Russians to be in violation.

Re: Ukraine mega thread
 

[quote=Chico23231;1318116]Why is anyone shocked by this?

My god strategically Europe, especially the Germans fucked themselves. The Germans were laughing several years ago when told to remove themselves from Russian energy, Trump was right again[/quote]

You mean the man who held up aid to Ukraine that could have help them just to blackmail them into getting something on Biden's kid?

Re: Ukraine mega thread
 

[url]https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/07/03/lysychansk-luhansk-russia-ukraine-war/[/url]

Russia claimed Sunday that its forces and their separatist allies captured Lysychansk, the last major Ukrainian in the Luhansk region

Luhansk Oblast now fully lost.

Re: Ukraine mega thread
 

[quote=Chico23231;1318123][url]https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/07/03/lysychansk-luhansk-russia-ukraine-war/[/url]

Russia claimed Sunday that its forces and their separatist allies captured Lysychansk, the last major Ukrainian in the Luhansk region

Luhansk Oblast now fully lost.[/quote]

Not really, The media has made every city sound like the strategic drop dead point. The better source is the one our own Nonniey pointed us to. [url]https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-july-2[/url]

[IMG]https://understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Luhansk%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20July%202%2C2022.png[/IMG]

There is a major area of land that is part of the Luhansk region. The Ukrainians were smart to pull a strategic withdrawal now that they have longer range artillery.

Re: Ukraine mega thread
 

After 27 days the Eastern front line has barely changed, and there are signs that the Russian southern front may collapse. The US should absolutely remove the prohibitions and restrictions and let Ukraine fight the war to win. If they could take out the facilities in Belgorod and the missile launch sites up near Kharkiv, the Russians would be in far worse shape than they already are.

[IMG]https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Donetsk%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20July%2029%2C2022.png[/IMG]