Re: Around the NFL Week 12
 

[quote=GTripp0012;1043298]Hard to imagine either of those teams making a ton of noise in the playoffs...but the AFC is so weak that you can't rule anybody out at this point.

If you have four or more victories in the AFC, you're a Super Bowl contender.[/quote]

So count both these guys out of the superbowl? I dont know bout that.

Team to watch is Chargers. Rivers playing like a top 3 QB again.

Re: Around the NFL Week 12
 

It's painfully obvious that Manning can't put any kind of zip on the ball when it's cold. And is there a better bad weather QB than Brady?

Re: Around the NFL Week 12
 

[quote=Chico23231;1043299]So count both these guys out of the superbowl? I dont know bout that.

Team to watch is Chargers. Rivers playing like a top 3 QB again.[/quote]Point was that you can't count anyone out, because no one on that side of the conference is good.

Denver is still the best team in that conference, but this is where they are after just two weeks of Jack Del Rio? And there's still like three-ish weeks of him left. It's reasonable to believe Denver may have already peaked.

New England played a great half yesterday, but they haven't been good all year, and though they're playing better right now, this is not a team that goes on the road to Denver, Cincinnati, or even Indy or Kansas City and wins.

The big point is that no one in the AFC is likely to put three wins in a row together in the playoffs. Someone is going to. But whoever comes out of the NFC is just going to be such an enormous super bowl favorite against anyone who isn't Denver.

Re: Around the NFL Week 12
 

I gave up on that game at 24-0, tuned back just in time for OT. I was like WTF did I miss lol.

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[quote=NC_Skins;1043297]I'll give you that. Brady did perform better, but much of that is dependent on his receivers. It was if the Broncos thought the game was over at half and decided to coast the rest of the game. That's the kind of epic collapse I'm used to seeing from the Skins, not the Broncos. McDaniels out-coached the hell out of Del Rio after the half.[/quote]

Much of what Manning has done his entire career has been because he has played with some of the best receiving corps in the NFL, especially this year. We cannot give Manning credit when his receivers are balling and then exclude him when he doesn't perform at his usual level even though his receivers didn't play well either. There were a couple of throws that were not Manning type throws. I think he got too caught up with Passing last night and they would have won the game if they kept the ball on the ground in key situations. In the end, like you said, Tom Brady simply was better than Manning last night.

The Patriots made a great comeback. The only reason the Broncos were up 24-0 was because of an epic collapse of the Patriots the first quarter, the only reason the Patriots came back was because of an epic collapse of the Broncos in the 3rd quarter.

Re: Around the NFL Week 12
 

[quote=skinsfan69;1043300]It's painfully obvious that Manning can't put any kind of zip on the ball when it's cold. And is there a better bad weather QB than Brady?[/quote]Brady seems to really struggle in bad weather, we just like to pretend that he's great.

Best bad weather QB? Flacco, maybe? It's probably someone totally obscure like Matt Flynn.

Re: Around the NFL Week 12
 

[quote=GTripp0012;1043301]Point was that you can't count anyone out, because no one on that side of the conference is good.

Denver is still the best team in that conference, but this is where they are after just two weeks of Jack Del Rio? And there's still like three-ish weeks of him left. It's reasonable to believe Denver may have already peaked.

New England played a great half yesterday, but they haven't been good all year, and though they're playing better right now, this is not a team that goes on the road to Denver, Cincinnati, or even Indy or Kansas City and wins.

The big point is that no one in the AFC is likely to put three wins in a row together in the playoffs. Someone is going to. But whoever comes out of the NFC is just going to be such an enormous super bowl favorite against anyone who isn't Denver.[/quote]

Gotcha. I dont know, but I wouldnt count out the Pats in the playoffs. I agree with the peaking of the Broncos, but you can make the same arguement about the Chiefs. We will know more after next week. New England steps it up in the playoffs, last night could be the jump off to that streak your reference.

Re: Around the NFL Week 12
 

[quote=GTripp0012;1043301]Point was that you can't count anyone out, because no one on that side of the conference is good.

Denver is still the best team in that conference, but this is where they are after just two weeks of Jack Del Rio? And there's still like three-ish weeks of him left. It's reasonable to believe Denver may have already peaked.

New England played a great half yesterday, but they haven't been good all year, and though they're playing better right now, this is not a team that goes on the road to Denver, Cincinnati, or even Indy or Kansas City and wins.

The big point is that no one in the AFC is likely to put three wins in a row together in the playoffs. Someone is going to. But whoever comes out of the NFC is just going to be such an enormous super bowl favorite against anyone who isn't Denver.[/quote]

All the AFC Teams are cold weather teams outside of Indy. I think they will have a pretty good chance against an NFC Team outdoors in New Jersey, especially if that team is New Orleans.

Re: Around the NFL Week 12
 

[quote=GTripp0012;1043304]Brady seems to really struggle in bad weather, we just like to pretend that he's great.

Best bad weather QB? Flacco, maybe? It's probably someone totally obscure like Matt Flynn.[/quote]


Rogers .

Re: Around the NFL Week 12
 

[quote=donofriose;1043303]Much of what Manning has done his entire career has been because he has played with some of the best receiving corps in the NFL, especially this year. We cannot give Manning credit when his receivers are balling and then exclude him when he doesn't perform at his usual level even though his receivers didn't play well either. There were a couple of throws that were not Manning type throws. I think he got too caught up with Passing last night and they would have won the game if they kept the ball on the ground in key situations. In the end, like you said, Tom Brady simply was better than Manning last night.

The Patriots made a great comeback. The only reason the Broncos were up 24-0 was because of an epic collapse of the Patriots the first quarter, the only reason the Patriots came back was because of an epic collapse of the Broncos in the 3rd quarter.[/quote]Manning's passes have lacked crispness all season though. I know he goes under the microscope in the cold weather, but I'm watching the condensed version of the game, and he's locating the ball better than Brady is. I just don't think he can do anything about the passes outside the numbers at this point. His arm is in decline.

Re: Around the NFL Week 12
 

[quote=Giantone;1043308]Rogers .[/quote]Rodgers, if not Flacco, has the best arm in the league, so that's a good pick.

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[quote=Giantone;1043308]Rogers .[/quote]

Eli? Im being serious.

And Tripp there is no pretending, Brady is great.

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[quote=donofriose;1043307]All the AFC Teams are cold weather teams outside of Indy. I think they will have a pretty good chance against an NFC Team outdoors in New Jersey, especially if that team is New Orleans.[/quote]I'll take a good warm weather team over a weaker cold weather one.

If the super bowl ends up being New England-New Orleans, I think the Saints are about a touchdown favorite.

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[quote=Chico23231;1043312]Eli? Im being serious.

And Tripp there is no pretending, Brady is great.[/quote]Brady is a much better QB in September than in December, which puts him in the company of everyone else who has walked this planet.

Re: Around the NFL Week 12
 

[quote=GTripp0012;1043309]Manning's passes have lacked crispness all season though. I know he goes under the microscope in the cold weather, but I'm watching the condensed version of the game, and he's locating the ball better than Brady is. I just don't think he can do anything about the passes outside the numbers at this point. His arm is in decline.[/quote]

I agree with this. Even though last night some of his ball placements were off. In general he has been the most accurate short yardage QB in the NFL. You saw the Patriots play a lot of press and try to take away the short passes and for the most part they were successful. When the Redskins were doing that they had success against Manning as well. The Pats just couldn't stop the run.

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[quote=GTripp0012;1043314]Brady is a much better QB in September than in December, which puts him in the company of everyone else who has walked this planet.[/quote]

His best month statistically is November. Followed by December. In 2010 he threw 11 TDs to 0 interceptions in December. In 2011 he threw 8 touchdowns to one interception in December. In 2012 he had a down year and threw 10 touchdowns but also 5 interceptions in December. 2009 was also a down year, where he threw 8 touchdowns to 4 interceptions.

Re: Around the NFL Week 12
 

[quote=GTripp0012;1043314]Brady is a much better QB in September than in December, which puts him in the company of everyone else who has walked this planet.[/quote]

So last night was the coldest game in New England in 20 years and 34/50 344 yards and 3 Tds outplaying his biggest rival...I dont know, thats kinda ballin in the cold.

Re: Around the NFL Week 12
 

[quote=donofriose;1043316]His best month statistically is November. Followed by December. In 2010 he threw 11 TDs to 0 interceptions in December. In 2011 he threw 8 touchdowns to one interception in December. In 2012 he had a down year and threw 10 touchdowns but also 5 interceptions in December. 2009 was also a down year, where he threw 8 touchdowns to 4 interceptions.[/quote]I'm passing this off as an effect on the way Belichick builds his teams, because we know offensive numbers leaguewide decline as the weather does. Brady isn't immune to this effect, as best evidenced by his postseason numbers. But any "cold weather" split is going to be somewhat arbitrary.

The Patriots have been a consistently better team late in the season than early in the season, and I'm assuming that Brady's numbers get a bounce from that. But in his two MVP seasons, Brady was lapping the field at Halloween, and was mostly undistinguished in the colder months.

The Patriots are also a consistently strong road team this time of year, for what it's worth.

Re: Around the NFL Week 12
 

[quote=Chico23231;1043317]So last night was the coldest game in New England in 20 years and 34/50 344 yards and 3 Tds outplaying his biggest rival...I dont know, thats kinda ballin in the cold.[/quote]Brady played well + it was cold is not the same as Brady always plays well in the cold, which isn't true.

If you look only at home games vs. Manning in cold weather months, you get a very different picture than if you look only at all games against the Jets and Ravens in cold months. The complete picture is what is important, and that lies somewhere in the middle.

Re: Around the NFL Week 12
 

[quote=GTripp0012;1043319]I'm passing this off as an effect on the way Belichick builds his teams, because we know offensive numbers leaguewide decline as the weather does. Brady isn't immune to this effect, as best evidenced by his postseason numbers. But any "cold weather" split is going to be somewhat arbitrary.

The Patriots have been a consistently better team late in the season than early in the season, and I'm assuming that Brady's numbers get a bounce from that. But in his two MVP seasons, Brady was lapping the field at Halloween, and was mostly undistinguished in the colder months.

The Patriots are also a consistently strong road team this time of year, for what it's worth.[/quote]

Every QB struggles in the Postseason, that is more due to the fact that you play quality defenses in the postseason, seeing as how only the best teams that year make the playoffs. Even in the postseason Brady has been pretty good throwing 40 plus touchdowns. Brady has both the wins and the stats to prove that he is a great cold weather QB

Re: Around the NFL Week 12
 

[quote=donofriose;1043321]Every QB struggles in the Postseason, that is more due to the fact that you play quality defenses in the postseason, seeing as how only the best teams that year make the playoffs. Even in the postseason Brady has been pretty good throwing 40 plus touchdowns. Brady has both the wins and the stats to prove that he is a great cold weather QB[/quote]I agree with both your premises, but disagree with your conclusion.

But I think you might be saying that Brady is great in cold weather relative to his competition, which is fine. So is Manning, Rodgers, and all the top QBs.

The conclusion I'm rejecting is that QB x (in this case Brady) is a great cold weather QB because he's immune to conditions. I would be more accepting of a conclusion that a player is still pretty good in spite of conditions (and improved defenses). But I feel like the "Brady is a great cold weather QB" narrative spills very quickly into "he isn't like everyone else in cold weather."

Relatively speaking, Brady plays pretty well in the conditions. And I think Manning does as well. Because they are really good at what they do.

Re: Around the NFL Week 12
 

[quote=GTripp0012;1043322]I agree with both your premises, but disagree with your conclusion.

But I think you might be saying that Brady is great in cold weather relative to his competition, which is fine. So is Manning, Rodgers, and all the top QBs.

The conclusion I'm rejecting is that QB x (in this case Brady) is a great cold weather QB because he's immune to conditions. I would be more accepting of a conclusion that a player is still pretty good in spite of conditions (and improved defenses). But I feel like the "Brady is a great cold weather QB" narrative spills very quickly into "he isn't like everyone else in cold weather."

Relatively speaking, Brady plays pretty well in the conditions. And I think Manning does as well. Because they are really good at what they do.[/quote]

I am saying he is better than others in cold weather. Stats and wins prove this to be true.

Re: Around the NFL Week 12
 

[quote=donofriose;1043323]I am saying he is better than others in cold weather. Stats and wins prove this to be true.[/quote]

You're getting sucked into a black hole you won't be able to get out of. Abort now!

Re: Around the NFL Week 12
 

[quote=donofriose;1043323]I am saying he is better than others in cold weather. Stats and wins prove this to be true.[/quote]It's a tough argument to prove one way or other other, because of sample sizes.

Because his contemporaries are Manning and Brees, it gets even harder to prove such a thing, because both play the vast majority of their games in warm weather. If Rodgers, Eli, Roethisberger or Cutler had more career overlap, this would be an easier thing to look at.

I happen to think it's a weaker argument, but I'm also attributing a lot of his statistics to his teammates and coaches, which is also a weak argument.

Re: Around the NFL Week 12
 

[quote=SmootSmack;1043325]You're getting sucked into a black hole you won't be able to get out of. Abort now![/quote]You seem to have a different view of the purpose of the workday than the rest of us.

But no, I'm out of fresh takes on this one.

Re: Around the NFL Week 12
 

[quote=donofriose;1043323]I am saying he is better than others in cold weather. Stats and wins prove this to be true.[/quote]


It's hard to go against guys who play in this type of weather a lot (Rodgers/Brady) and are used to brutal cold days on the football field. I can believe those stats, and I'd have no beef with the statement that Brady is better on cold day games than Manning. Think Manning is still used to that cushy dome back in Indy.

Re: Around the NFL Week 12
 

[quote=donofriose;1043303]Much of what Manning has done his entire career has been because he has played with some of the best receiving corps in the NFL, especially this year. We cannot give Manning credit when his receivers are balling and then exclude him when he doesn't perform at his usual level even though his receivers didn't play well either. There were a couple of throws that were not Manning type throws. I think he got too caught up with Passing last night and they would have won the game if they kept the ball on the ground in key situations. In the end, like you said, Tom Brady simply was better than Manning last night.

The Patriots made a great comeback. The only reason the Broncos were up 24-0 was because of an epic collapse of the Patriots the first quarter, the only reason the Patriots came back was because of an epic collapse of the Broncos in the 3rd quarter.[/quote]

I can't argue that, but is it because the WRs are that good or because the QBs make the WR? I'm not one to give all the glory to QBs so I'm not excluding him on that loss last night. He provided a critical INT that helped their demise on offense. To me, I think the officials were letting too much go in the secondary in terms of PI (on both sides). They probably should have been on top of that crap from the get go, or dont' bother throwing any flags at all. Too much inconsistency with the calls or non-calls last night.

Here is the problem with keeping the ball on the ground (which I agree with), is that you had two guys they have no confidence in whatsoever behind Moreno. Both Ball and Anderson fumbled last night, with Anderson's being in OT. Neither one of them played after that. Tell you what though, Moreno flat out balled last night and he's about the only one that can walk out with his head high. (Tamme and Miller as well)

Re: Around the NFL Week 12
 

The stats and wins do agree on one thing though: Joe Flacco is the best, ever.

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[quote=NC_Skins;1043330]Here is the problem with keeping the ball on the ground (which I agree with), is that you had two guys they have no confidence in whatsoever behind Moreno. Both Ball and Anderson fumbled last night, with Anderson's being in OT. Neither one of them played after that. Tell you what though, Moreno flat out balled last night and he's about the only one that can walk out with his head high. (Tamme and Miller as well)[/quote]Can you think of another player like Moreno in recent memory? Someone who spends four full seasons as a draft bust, and then comes back in year 5 and is one of the best in the league at the position? Moreno seems to defy comparison.

Re: Around the NFL Week 12
 

[quote=GTripp0012;1043332]Can you think of another player like Moreno in recent memory? Someone who spends four full seasons as a draft bust, and then comes back in year 5 and is one of the best in the league at the position? Moreno seems to defy comparison.[/quote]

Someone the other day just talked about Moreno being the 2nd most important player on the team. If he's going to miss any time, it's going to suck for Denver

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I remember countless times where Brady has had some of his best games in shitty weather. A few come to mind in the snow where he killed the Titans and Arizona. I don't care what anyone says...that guy does more with less than anyone I've ever seen. It was clear as day that he was spinning the ball better than Manning was last night. I know a lot of people don't like the guy but he is a truly great QB.

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I feel like Moreno is the reason that coaches almost never want to give up on a guy with obvious physical talent, long after it becomes obvious the production isn't there. Because the upside if they figure it out looks something like 2013 Moreno.

Keep at it, Trent Richardson.

Re: Around the NFL Week 12
 

[quote=skinsfan69;1043335]I remember countless times where Brady has had some of his best games in shitty weather. A few come to mind in the snow where he killed the Titans and Arizona. I don't care what anyone says...that guy does more with less than anyone I've ever seen. It was clear as day that he was spinning the ball better than Manning was last night. I know a lot of people don't like the guy but he is a truly great QB.[/quote]If I have a bias against Brady it's because he's super boring to watch, but there's a lot of greatness in his predictability. Brady wins before the snap as often as any quarterback ever has.

The flip side of that kind of greatness is that you can't win before the snap THAT often unless your coaches are consistently and decisively beating the other team's coaches. But Brady is also a great executer, and his success and Belichick's success are going to be historically inseparable. They make each other better.

Re: Around the NFL Week 12
 

[quote=GTripp0012;1043338][B]If I have a bias against Brady it's because he's super boring to watch, but there's a lot of greatness in his predictability. Brady wins before the snap as often as any quarterback ever has.[/B]

The flip side of that kind of greatness is that you can't win before the snap THAT often unless your coaches are consistently and decisively beating the other team's coaches. But Brady is also a great executer, and his success and Belichick's success are going to be historically inseparable. They make each other better.[/quote]

I personally think Manning is the best QB and knowing what you want to do before the snap.

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[quote=donofriose;1043344]I personally think Manning is the best QB and knowing what you want to do before the snap.[/quote]He might be. Personally, I think they're both pretty much perfect before the snap (and most starters in this league are pretty good before the snap). Manning does more before the snap. But they're both great at it.

Re: Around the NFL Week 12
 

For all the talk about how much the NFC East has sucked this year, it's a better division than the AFC South, and right now, it's better than the NFC North as well.

Re: Around the NFL Week 12
 

[quote=GTripp0012;1043332]Can you think of another player like Moreno in recent memory? Someone who spends four full seasons as a draft bust, and then comes back in year 5 and is one of the best in the league at the position? Moreno seems to defy comparison.[/quote]

While lots of differences exist, M. Lynch was heading in the same direction. After to 1,000+ seasons in Buffalo, he followed with a 450 yarder and a 740 yarder while playing for Buffalo and Seattle (traded mid-season). Lots of reasons existed to cause his poor production in years 3 & 4.

Even for those who saw the potential for a career revival in Seattle, however, I doubt anyone saw him becoming the Beast that drives Seattle. [Interestingly enough, both were the 12th pick in their respective drafts: Lynch - 2007; Moreno - 2009].

Re: Around the NFL Week 12
 

[quote=JoeRedskin;1043349]While lots of differences exist, M. Lynch was heading in the same direction. After to 1,000+ seasons in Buffalo, he followed with a 450 yarder and a 740 yarder while playing for Buffalo and Seattle (traded mid-season). Lots of reasons existed to cause his poor production in years 3 & 4.

Even for those who saw the potential for a career revival in Seattle, however, I doubt anyone saw him becoming the Beast that drives Seattle. [Interestingly enough, both were the 12th pick in their respective drafts: Lynch - 2007; Moreno - 2009].[/quote]That's a really good call. Lynch showed up in 2011 in training camp for his second team, and was good all of a sudden. And 2011 was, sure, his fifth season.

Re: Around the NFL Week 12
 

I'm excited for a week of Nick Foles = MVP talk.

Re: Around the NFL Week 12
 

[quote=GTripp0012;1043352]I'm excited for a week of Nick Foles = MVP talk.[/quote]

:laughing2