Re: Peyton Manning or RGIII your choice
 

[quote=biffle;884238]When you use the percentage of first round QBs who have worked out, you are using all of them, including Russell and Leaf, whom I used as examples of prospects who drag down that percentage.

Is that really so far beyond your ability to comprehend?[/quote]Irrelevant point because the fact that they are high first round picks supersedes any perceived differences between Griffin and some more notable busts from that group.

NFL types, despite concerns about character makeup, valued Russell and Leaf as top picks. If Griffin gets valued as a top pick, it is because NFL types feel similarly about him.

Re: Peyton Manning or RGIII your choice
 

between the two i chose rg3

Re: Peyton Manning or RGIII your choice
 

[quote=biffle;884238]When you use the percentage of first round QBs who have worked out, you are using all of them, including Russell and Leaf, whom I used as examples of prospects who drag down that percentage.

Is that really so far beyond your ability to comprehend?[/quote]C'mon that's where you're gonna go with this?

For someone who suggests that others don't understand stats why is it hard for you to comprehend that when you look at a stat for an entire group you don't get to discard or exclude any subjects based on your whim?

By your logic the hit rate for all prospects at any position should be sorted to include only the prospects that 'biffle' thinks are similar.
Unfortunately that's not how it works and historically the success rate is right around 50/50 its even lower when using the 'franchise' QB or 'elite' QB label as the measure of success. or [quote=NC_Skins;884218]Numbers are what they are. Since 1998 (till 2009), there is a 41% success chance of landing a very good QB in the top 5 of the NFL draft.

Griffin or Luck chances at becoming a successful draft pick are still the same. They still have a 41% chance.[/quote]

And the larger point, which is lost on you, is that Peyton Manning has [I]already[/I] [I]proven[/I] himself to be what we hope Griffin will [I][B]become[/B][/I].

Re: Peyton Manning or RGIII your choice
 

[quote=GTripp0012;884240]Irrelevant point because the fact that they are high first round picks supersedes any perceived differences between Griffin and some more notable busts from that group.

NFL types, despite concerns about character makeup, valued Russell and Leaf as top picks. If Griffin gets valued as a top pick, it is because NFL types feel similarly about him.[/quote]

Actually, Griffin will be drafted so high precisely because NFL teams don't listen to anything as silly as these percentages. Because they don't think Griffin has anything in common with the likes of Russell and Leaf.

This is how statistical analysis changed baseball. Teams figured out how to compare players by production and body type, among other things. They used that to project how players would produce in the future. Teams won titles by understanding how to use stats in context like that. What they didn't do was use something as laughably simplistic as "[I]x[/I] percentage of players at [I]y[/I] position don't work out."

Re: Peyton Manning or RGIII your choice
 

[quote=biffle;884244]What they didn't do was use something as laughably simplistic as "[I]x[/I] percentage of players at [I]y[/I] position don't work out."[/quote]Citing the hit rate is much different then saying prospect X will fail [I][B]because[/B][/I] of the hit rate.

You understand that right?

Re: Peyton Manning or RGIII your choice
 

[quote=biffle;884244]Actually, Griffin will be drafted so high precisely because NFL teams don't listen to anything as silly as these percentages. Because they don't think Griffin has anything in common with the likes of Russell and Leaf.

This is how statistical analysis changed baseball. Teams figured out how to compare players by production and body type, among other things. They used that to project how players would produce in the future. Teams won titles by understanding how to use stats in context like that. What they didn't do was use something as laughably simplistic as "[I]x[/I] percentage of players at [I]y[/I] position don't work out."[/quote]Well, sure, there are a hundred ways to project Robert Griffin to the NFL better than historical bust rates, but that doesn't make your prior point any less irrelevant.

Re: Peyton Manning or RGIII your choice
 

Robert Griffin iii for the win!

Re: Peyton Manning or RGIII your choice
 

[quote=30gut;884245]Citing the hit rate is much different then saying prospect X will fail [I][B]because[/B][/I] of the hit rate.

You understand that right?[/quote]

LOL. Really not worth my time to continue with you. Have a good night.

Re: Peyton Manning or RGIII your choice
 

[quote=GTripp0012;884246]Well, sure, there are a hundred ways to project Robert Griffin to the NFL better than historical bust rates, but that doesn't make your prior point any less irrelevant.[/quote]

My point was simply you can't assign some percentage chance of success on any player because of what other, completely different, players did. Both history and common sense should tell us that. I'm not sure how that is "irrelevant".

Re: Peyton Manning or RGIII your choice
 

[quote=biffle;884248]LOL. Really not worth my time to continue with you. Have a good night.[/quote]That's too bad.
I thought that once you realized or stopped to trying to argue a point I wasn't making that we would actually talk about Manning vs Griffin.

anyhow, cheers
HTTR

Re: Peyton Manning or RGIII your choice
 

next time i have to come in here i'm crackin' skulls

is it too late to add a poll? a poll would be a nice visual aid

Re: Peyton Manning or RGIII your choice
 

Here's a question: We all agree that QB/WR/OL are the three biggest holes on the team right? So let's say we re-sign our main FAs Fletch/Davis. Now we have cap space. What if we go out and sign Dwayne Bowe, Eddie Royal, and Ben Grubbs. I think it's safe to say that makes our team better and fills two holes (RT is another story) NC Skins, would you still be against the 3 picks for 1 deal for RGIII? I think FA will have a big say in whether or not we trade up.

Re: Peyton Manning or RGIII your choice
 

[quote=biffle;884249]My point was simply you can't assign some percentage chance of success on any player because of what other, completely different, players did. Both history and common sense should tell us that. I'm not sure how that is "irrelevant".[/quote]

You could make a case for redskins free agent qb's too!!! Manning could be the next, Mcnabb, Jeff George, brunell, it's the nfl no one is a guarantee, if it were everyone would win the sb every year, it's a lot to do with "luck"

[QUOTE=EARTHQUAKE2689;884257]Here's a question: We all agree that QB/WR/OL are the three biggest holes on the team right? So let's say we re-sign our main FAs Fletch/Davis. Now we have cap space. What if we go out and sign Dwayne Bowe, Eddie Royal, and Ben Grubbs. I think it's safe to say that makes our team better and fills two holes (RT is another story) NC Skins, would you still be against the 3 picks for 1 deal for RGIII? I think FA will have a big say in whether or not we trade up.[/QUOTE]

I think we will do some big things in FA, guys like bowe, Wayne and garcon could be guys to go get.. Vincent jax also. Add Manning or RG and we are in great shape

Re: Peyton Manning or RGIII your choice
 

[quote=skinsfaninok;884260]I think we will do some big things in FA, guys like bowe, Wayne and garcon could be guys to go get.. Vincent jax also. Add Manning or RG and we are in great shape[/quote]

Don't like Garçon. Average WR who Manning made look better than he actually was. He's a dime a dozen guy.

Re: Peyton Manning or RGIII your choice
 

Hmmmm....
An old man that cant throw to his left or the next Randall Cunningham?
I'll go with Buddys boy.

Re: Peyton Manning or RGIII your choice
 

[quote=44Deezel;884265]Don't like Garçon. Average WR who [B]Manning[/B] made look better than he actually was. He's a dime a dozen guy.[/quote]

[U]Who[/U] made him look better?

Re: Peyton Manning or RGIII your choice
 

[quote=GMScud;884112]Man, another QB thread? How many variations of scenarios do we need specific threads for?[/quote]

And yet all the regulars are in here like free Makers Mark was being handed out with each reply.

Re: Peyton Manning or RGIII your choice
 

[quote=EARTHQUAKE2689;884119]If RGIII is that franchise QB, I don't care about Riley Reiff, Manti Te'o, Alfonzo Denard, or Andersen "The Spider" Silva. A franchise QB makes all those holes disappear so I send my 1st rounder in 2012 and 2013, as well as a 3rd this year and a 4th next year for my QB and we are still left with:

2nd, 4th, 4th, 5th, 7th plus FA. You mean to tell me we can't fill holes with that? I don't want Manning.[/quote]

This guy gets it. We can plug all the holes we want but until we have a franchise QB we are not even in the game.

We have the 6th pick now and and the good fortune of the #2 overall pick being held by a team that doesn't need a QB. We will never have a better chance to get our hands on a franchise QB. I would love to have a year or 2 of Peyton while RG3 learns but if I have to pick I am going with 10+ years of RG3 over 2 years of Peyton.

Re: Peyton Manning or RGIII your choice
 

[quote=EARTHQUAKE2689;884257]Here's a question: We all agree that QB/WR/OL are the three biggest holes on the team right? So let's say we re-sign our main FAs Fletch/Davis. Now we have cap space. What if we go out and sign Dwayne Bowe, Eddie Royal, and Ben Grubbs. I think it's safe to say that makes our team better and fills two holes (RT is another story) NC Skins, would you still be against the 3 picks for 1 deal for RGIII? I think FA will have a big say in whether or not we trade up.[/quote]

Exactly. It baffles me that a fan base that has not had a franchise QB in almost 30 years is worried about 3 draft picks. We are still building the right way. Giving up 3 extra draft picks to solve a generation long QB problem does not mean that Vinny is coming back...

Re: Peyton Manning or RGIII your choice
 

Just a couple of things first. Number one, to all that say Peyton Manning will be too fragile to play, that is not the issue at all. There have already been a few doctors to say that this surgery is commonplace and Peyton is no more at risk with his health/life resuming his football career than anybody else. So, stop worrying about the neck. Number two, the only thing to be concerned with is how progressive the nerve regeneration in Peyton's arm is. Will that process continue to improve, or will Peyton hit a plateau? That is the only concern with Peyton Manning at this point.

OK, so to fast forward to choosing between Manning or Griffin. We're assuming Manning is 100% healthy enough to play and he's gotten his throwing strength and velocity and all that jazz back. The choice should be obvious - you sign Peyton Manning to the right incentive based contract that benefits both him and the team's cap situation. You keep all of your draft picks, either draft your QB of the future in this draft, or you can wait until next draft, and heck, maybe even the 2014 draft if need be. You continue to build through the draft, while being smart in getting a few key pieces in free agency - but the draft is #1 priority. Only draft RGIII if he falls to #6.

I realize a lot of you guys have been enamored by RGIII since the middle of the college season, and feel he's a no brainer pick. Heck, after seeing a couple of games, I'm hooked as well. But, truth be told, we have all waited, bitched, and moaned for the last decade about how the Redskins don't build through the draft. Yet, I'm seeing those same people suggesting that we do the exact opposite to land RGIII. Giving away multiple draft picks to sign one draft pick is not building through the draft. It's taking a HUGE gamble on an unproven commodity. I was on board earlier about doing whatever it took to get our franchise QB, and I'm not necessarily off of that bandwagon. But, looking at this from a business standpoint as well, it doesn't make a lot of good business sense to give away a bunch of draft picks for one guy. One guy that could be a huge bust. At least if Manning turned out to be a failed experiment, it doesn't set the team back nearly as much as it would if RGIII failed. HOWEVER, I say that only because the Redskins Would have an alternative from having to give up picks to land a projected franchise QB. IF the 'skins had no other options, then I'd be on board with doing whatever it takes to land RGIII. BUT, if Manning's arm continues to improve, and his arm is good enough by the time training camp rolls around, that's the option that needs to happen...even if Manning only plays for a couple more seasons.

Re: Peyton Manning or RGIII your choice
 

[quote=celts32;884283]Exactly. It baffles me that a fan base that has not had a franchise QB in almost 30 years is worried about 3 draft picks. We are still building the right way. Giving up 3 extra draft picks to solve a generation long QB problem does not mean that Vinny is coming back...[/quote]


It's not necessarily 3 extra picks. One or two of those picks could turn into a couple of more picks with trading down in future drafts and so forth. So, what appears to be only 3 extra high round picks could turn into 5 or 6 possible draft picks.

Re: Peyton Manning or RGIII your choice
 

[quote=skinsguy;884285]It's not necessarily 3 extra picks. One or two of those picks could turn into a couple of more picks with trading down in future drafts and so forth. So, what appears to be only 3 extra high round picks could turn into 5 or 6 possible draft picks.[/quote]

Thats highly speculative. A trade down is not always available when you want it. Regardless that's not really the point. I don't care how many picks it is...I want the QB problem solved LONG TERM. The teams that win consistently in this league are the ones with the franchise QB's. We need to get one if we want to be something more then a surprise playoff team every now and then.

Say we get Manning and become a playoff team drafting in the 20's for 2 years. When the 2 or 3 years are up we are right back where we started from with no QB and we have drafted so low that prospects as good as RG3 are out of our reach. At that same time with RG3 we could be off and running with our franchise QB who is just hitting his prime. In my opinion the Manning move only pays off if they win the Super Bowl with him and i am not willing to bank the future on it.

Re: Peyton Manning or RGIII your choice
 

Everyone is acting like a QB like RGIII comes along only once in a life time. Guess what they don't. Newton was one of those guys.

Another issue that has to be accounted for is are the Skins one player away from making the play offs? Cause by taking RGIII we could lose up to 3 picks this year and 2 or 3 more picks next year. So by taking RGIII your pretty much in the mind set that this team has everything else it needs on offense and RGIII is the missing piece. He will take this team to the play offs. I don't think that happens.

Another issue is will our coaching staff design and call plays to RGIII's abilities and skill set or will they force the round peg into the square hole and make him play the way they want him to play?

Then there is the issue of will he even work out in the NFL? He comes from a spread offense. How many of you here have argued every year about how spread offense QB's hardly make it in the NFL? A lot of you. He's going to have to work on taking snaps from under center and his footwork along with reading defenses and changing the play calls at the LOS. Personally I'd rather take the Wilson kid who is just as mobile for less the cost. Especially if the coaching staff is going to have to work on changing the QB's technique anyway.

The original question is stupid. The team is going to pick up a Vet QB especially if they let Beck go but definitely if they let both Beck and Grossman go. P.Manning has nothing to do with the draft and would not effect what we could, would, or can do there. If I were the Colts I'd ignore any complaints and keep Manning and draft Luck. Which is why I'm saying I'd take Manning here. I don't think he will be ready. That lets whoever we draft start. Personally Manning or not I want the team to trade back for more picks, he'll draft 2 QB's if they want to and let them battle it out in camp. I'll take 2 young healthy Rookie QB's over one RGIII who ties the clubs hands for a couple of yrs.

Trade back for a late first and a late second. Draft Weeden in round 1. Draft a WR in early round 2. Draft Wilson in late round 2.

Then start picking up the rest of the draft.

Re: Peyton Manning or RGIII your choice
 

I'd keep the picks and sign Manning.

Re: Peyton Manning or RGIII your choice
 

Based on the information we have right now, Peyton may not be able to throw to his left and across his body. Assuming this is true, get RGIII. Also I highly doubt Manning, if healthy, would want to play here.

Re: Peyton Manning or RGIII your choice
 

[quote=hooskins;884294]Based on the information we have right now, Peyton may not be able to throw to his left and across his body. Assuming this is true, get RGIII. [B]Also I highly doubt Manning, if healthy, would want to play here.[/B][/quote]

Interesting that some continue to think that. Why I'm really not sure.

Re: Peyton Manning or RGIII your choice
 

[quote=Mattyk;884295]Interesting that some continue to think that. Why I'm really not sure.[/quote]

So I haven't been on the Path in a bit and please present a counter to my points.

[B][U]Why Peyton would come here:[/U][/B]
-Shanny
-Prestige?

[B][U]Why Peyton wouldn't come here:[/U][/B]
-He would be fighting for a playoff spot against his brother twice a year
-Cold weather
-We have missing parts on the offense

Just my two cents.

Re: Peyton Manning or RGIII your choice
 

[quote=hooskins;884296]So I haven't been on the Path in a bit and please present a counter to my points.

[B][U]Why Peyton would come here:[/U][/B]
-Shanny
-Prestige?

[B][U]Why Peyton wouldn't come here:[/U][/B]
-He would be fighting for a playoff spot against his brother twice a year
-Cold weather
-We have missing parts on the offense

Just my two cents.[/quote]

I'm borrowing from Smootsmack:

Reasons for Peyton Manning to want to come here

-He respects Shanahan and knows Shanahan is an established, Super Bowl winning head coach

-Redskins have the cap flexibility to be active in free agency and the draft picks to be active in the draft

-He (supposedly) prefer the East Coast

-He enjoys the spotlight

-He's very tight with an executive in the organization

Re: Peyton Manning or RGIII your choice
 

What if:

Manning is healthy.
The Saints cant negotiate Brees.
Brees to DC.
Manning goes to NOLA.
Archie is delighted.
Redskins and Saints in the NFC championship.


Hey, a guy can dream a little....

Re: Peyton Manning or RGIII your choice
 

[quote=Mattyk;884297]I'm borrowing from Smootsmack:

Reasons for Peyton Manning to want to come here

-He respects Shanahan and knows Shanahan is an established, Super Bowl winning head coach

-Redskins have the cap flexibility to be active in free agency and the draft picks to be active in the draft

-He (supposedly) prefer the East Coast

-He enjoys the spotlight

[B]-He's very tight with an executive in the organizatio[/B]n[/quote]

That last point is an interesting one which I did not know. Thanks.

To the draft point, do you think Peyton would be alright with us drafting a QB in the first or second round? I have no doubt he is a professional but drafting a QB that high would say we don't expect you to start in a year or two. IMO Peyton wants the starting nod for another three to four years.

[QUOTE=Mattyk;884291]I'd keep the picks and sign Manning.[/QUOTE]

I think this is what's going to happen

Re: Peyton Manning or RGIII your choice
 

[quote=hooskins;884300]That last point is an interesting one which I did not know. Thanks.

To the draft point, do you think Peyton would be alright with us drafting a QB in the first or second round? I have no doubt he is a professional but drafting a QB that high would say we don't expect you to start in a year or two. IMO Peyton wants the starting nod for another three to four years.[/quote]

If it's someone like Tannehill who is a bit of a project and would benefit from sitting for a few years, I don't think he would have a problem with it.

Re: Peyton Manning or RGIII your choice
 

[quote=biffle;884177]1. There is no recent trade nor example from the value chart that makes your trade likely.[/quote]

Eli Manning's cost to the Giants - 2004 1st, 2004 3rd, 2005 1st, 2005 5th...to move up from #4 to #1 with a difference of 1200 points. (forced trade)

Michael Vick's cost to the Falcons - 2001 1st round, 2001 3rd rounder, 2002 3rd rounder and Tim Dwight. (Chargers failed to reach contract with Vick so traded)....to move from #5 to #1 with a difference of 1,000 points.


Ryan Leaf's cost to the Chargers- 1998 1st rounder, 1998 2nd rounder, 1999 1st rounder, Eric Metcalf, Patrick Sapp....to move up from #3 to #2 with a difference of 400 points.

Jon Gruden traded to the Tampa Bay Bucs for 2 first rounders.


Two of those trades came from unusual circumstances and both by the same team. In fact, the only team that seems to trade top 5 picks is the Chargers. One was a forced trade, the other came about because they couldn't reach a deal with Vick prior to the draft. Both of those circumstances lowered the value of the pick. That and the fact that huge contracts came with rookies back then. Now that rookie contracts are affordable, those high picks mean even more now.


So with a 1,000 point difference between the #2 and #6, you have to come up with the points to make up for that.

1st- 1600 points
2nd - 520 points
3rd - 240 points
4th- 93 points
5th- 39 points
6th- 25 points
7th- 12.2 points



Even if you added all these picks you would only come up with 929.2 points. Now granted, you wouldn't want to go all Ditka and give up your total draft so you would have to bargain to keep some of this years draft while sacrificing some of next years picks.

1st, 2nd, 4th = 2,213 points You would have to include next years #1 to make up that extra 400 points and possible a later rounder. Remember now, next years picks doesn't have the value that they do in the present.

1st, 3rd,4th= 1,933 points. Would cost you next years #1 and another mid round pick to make up.


I didn't just pull that scenario from fantasy land.

Re: Peyton Manning or RGIII your choice
 

[quote=Mattyk;884302]If it's someone like Tannehill who is a bit of a project and would benefit from sitting for a few years, I don't think he would have a problem with it.[/quote]


I think this is a more feasible outcome...

If it takes to much to move up then get FA QB (Maybe Manning but does not have to) and get a young thrower to develop in 2-3 year...

So we go from the mess at QB to a outlook in the future of good QB play

Also it keeps the focus on the draft while getting young and most importantly Better

My Take... Slow and steady

There are at least options...

Re: Peyton Manning or RGIII your choice
 

I'm sure it has been said somewhere in the thousands of quarterback posts, but what would it take to add Manning? Are we talking picks or straight cash?

Assuming he would even want to be here...

Re: Peyton Manning or RGIII your choice
 

[quote=Chief X_Phackter;884306]I'm sure it has been said somewhere in the thousands of quarterback posts, but what would it take to add Manning? Are we talking picks or straight cash?

Assuming he would even want to be here...[/quote]

Manning wouldn't cost any draft picks.

Re: Peyton Manning or RGIII your choice
 

[quote=Mattyk;884302]If it's someone like Tannehill who is a bit of a project and would benefit from sitting for a few years, I don't think he would have a problem with it.[/quote]

I can definitely get behind Manning/Tannehill. Tannehill is projected by many as a potential franchise QB if given time and Shanny is rumored to like him. Problem with this scenario is getting him will not be easy. He's a reach at #6 and he will be gone by the time our 2nd pick comes up. And i am not okay with picking whatever other QB happens to be available in the 2nd round.

Re: Peyton Manning or RGIII your choice
 

[quote=celts32;884308]I can definitely get behind Manning/Tannehill. Tannehill is projected by many as a potential franchise QB if given time and Shanny is rumored to like him. Problem with this scenario is getting him will not be easy. He's a reach at #6 and he will be gone by the time our 2nd pick comes up. And i am not okay with picking whatever other QB happens to be available in the 2nd round.[/quote]

On the bright side the cost to move up in the 2nd round or the end of the first is nothing compared to the cost of moving from the 6th pick to the first or second overall.

Re: Peyton Manning or RGIII your choice
 

[quote=celts32;884308]I can definitely get behind Manning/Tannehill. Tannehill is projected by many as a potential franchise QB if given time and Shanny is rumored to like him. Problem with this scenario is getting him will not be easy. He's a reach at #6 and he will be gone by the time our 2nd pick comes up. And i am not okay with picking whatever other QB happens to be available in the 2nd round.[/quote]

If we traded down from #6 to the 12-15 range, we likely could still get Tannehill and have extra picks to boot.

Manning + Tannehill + extra picks = WIN