Re: Around the NFL week 10
 

[quote=Meks;859134]to.comment on SF ...I think they're phony .. just a feeling and curse Los he's playing well for them.[/quote]

SF will lose when the game will completely depend on their QB play. Until then, their running game (and not just Gore) and defense will make it won't have to put the game on his shoulders. Although I thought that he played well today.

Re: Around the NFL week 10
 

[quote=Meks;859134]to.comment on SF ...I think they're phony .. just a feeling and curse Los he's playing well for them.[/quote]

I guess you haven't watched many Niners games. Great Defense, probably the best 1,2 combo LB's Willis and Bowman, pretty good offense all around, with a punishing OL which creates a pretty good running game. WR/TE/RB/OL are pretty good. Oh forgot, the best young coach in the game, Harbaugh.

Re: Around the NFL week 10
 

Gronkowski is a physical freak, just like Antonio Gates.

Re: Around the NFL week 10
 

I've seen plenty niners games and was at fed ex last week and watched them. their division sux, the giants are inconsistent, Ronnie brown gave them a win, we stunk against them..... dumb luck combined with a good defense and a coaching staff who knows how to call games and plays it safe with a sub par qb.... they're not that special.

Re: Around the NFL week 10
 

[quote=Meks;859149]I've seen plenty niners games and was at fed ex last week and watched them. their division sux, the giants are inconsistent, Ronnie brown gave them a win, we stunk against them..... dumb luck combined with a good defense and a coaching staff who knows how to call games and plays it safe with a sub par qb.... they're not that special.[/quote]

Let's see:

They barely lost to the 5-4 Cowboys in OT, have beaten the 3-6 Eagles in Philly, undefeated 6-3 Detroit in Detroit, Washington, 6-3 Cincy on the road and the 6-3 Giants. I say that's pretty impressive, I'm not a Whiner fan by all means, I hate them worse than the cowboys, but they deserve credit.

Re: Around the NFL week 10
 

[quote=Meks;859149]I've seen plenty niners games and was at fed ex last week and watched them. their division sux, the giants are inconsistent, Ronnie brown gave them a win, we stunk against them..... dumb luck combined with a good defense and a coaching staff who knows how to call games and plays it safe with a sub par qb.... they're not that special.[/quote]They're the Jets, except that they will get a home playoff game and probably the bye.

Re: Around the NFL week 10
 

Jets blew it tonight. I thought this would be the game that sparked a run for them.

Meanwhile, the Bears are legit

Re: Around the NFL week 10
 

[quote=SmootSmack;859184]Jets blew it tonight. I thought this would be the game that sparked a run for them.

Meanwhile, the Bears are legit[/quote]

It's pretty amazing how the Bears can maintain such a level of play with such a bad Oline and aging defense.

Re: Around the NFL week 10
 

Props to Andre Carter. 4.5 sacks tonight, and without the aid of Albert Fatus Magnus Haynesworth.

Re: Around the NFL week 10
 

we did we switch to a 3-4? rak and carter are great 4-3 ends. carter just can't play in a 3-4... that's why he left SF and came here in the first place.

Re: Around the NFL week 10
 

[quote=GTripp0012;859159]They're the Jets, except that they will get a home playoff game and probably the bye.[/quote]

The Jets of last year or year before maybe...when their run defense was lights out.

Re: Around the NFL week 10
 

[quote=That Guy;859236]we did we switch to a 3-4? rak and carter are great 4-3 ends. carter just can't play in a 3-4... that's why he left SF and came here in the first place.[/quote]

Rak would have made a fantastic DE in the 4-3. Either side probably although it would have take a little adjustment to go LDE.

He's solid as a rusher in the 3-4 but it's really stupid to have him back in coverage. Rak also struggles with containment sometimes but I think in a better system under better coaching he would have improved in that area enough to be a truly elite DE.

Re: Around the NFL week 10
 

Can someone explain how in the hell Denver wins at KC with Tebow completing 2 PASSES????? Haley is so fired.

Re: Around the NFL week 10
 

[quote=skinsfan69;859265]Can someone explain how in the hell Denver wins at KC with Tebow completing 2 PASSES????? Haley is so fired.[/quote]
It's pretty hilarious.
Apparently, it was the run defense that failed KC for most of the game...and after they were blooded and weakened, Tebow tosses the killer dagger(perfect pass) to Eric Decker to finish them off. :lol:

Re: Around the NFL week 10
 

Biggest surprise of the weekend, other than Mike Smith going for it, is the Bears ripping the Lions. I liked the Lions in the match up but felt like the Bears could win. I had no clue they would destroy the Lions. That Defense has grown into a top 3 in the league.

Re: Around the NFL week 10
 

How about Atlanta going for it on 4th down in OT? Ballsy but stupid I say and I would still think it was dumb even if they had made it.

Re: Around the NFL week 10
 

[quote=Lotus;859278]How about Atlanta going for it on 4th down in OT? Ballsy but stupid I say and I would still think it was dumb even if they had made it.[/quote]

Gotta kick it, 29 yard line? Not smart

Re: Around the NFL week 10
 

[quote=Lotus;859278]How about Atlanta going for it on 4th down in OT? Ballsy but stupid I say and I would still think it was dumb even if they had made it.[/quote]

That was idiotic. It cost them the game.

Re: Around the NFL week 10
 

Couldn't believe Falcons went for it. What a shameful end to a great game

Meanwhile, talk of Kolb being benched in Arizona, injury or not. That'd be insane

Re: Around the NFL week 10
 

[quote=SmootSmack;859318]Couldn't believe Falcons went for it. What a shameful end to a great game

Meanwhile, talk of Kolb being benched in Arizona, injury or not. That'd be insane[/quote]

A brand new 5yr, $63M contract for John Skelton's backup? Yikes. And sadly, I envy Arizona's QB situation.

Re: Around the NFL week 10
 

These numbers are certain to regress in a larger sample, but I found it interesting anyway:

Net yards per passing attempt, 2011 season

Carson Palmer 9.2
Aaron Rodgers 8.8
Tom Brady 7.8

Re: Around the NFL week 10
 

I thought this number crunch of Mike Smith's 4th and 1 foot go for it call was pretty interesting. He certainly looks like a genius if they convert....

[url=http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2011/11/14/falcons-players-stats-back-up-mike-smiths-decision/]Falcons players, stats back up Mike Smith’s decision | ProFootballTalk[/url]

Re: Around the NFL week 10
 

If Atlanta just quarterback sneaks in that situation, its a great call.

The problem with the run there is that you have New Orleans on full sell-out, and the probability of converting drops significantly. If you aren't going to have the balls to try play action, then you're probably better off punting. But I think a QB sneak is the best call there. Better than a punt, handoff, play action, etc.

Still, I think if you don't enjoy that call, then football probably isn't your sport. I thought it was a great idea, but I'm not surprised that if you turn and hand the ball off, that you get stopped. And it saddens me, because the play and result sours a great call.

Re: Around the NFL week 10
 

I don't know. I don't think it's as stupid as one might initially think.
I think one has to consider that Drew Brees tends to go into god mode when he needs a game-winning drive. More likely than not, he marches the Saints down the field and they win anyway.

But I don't know why they did not call a quarterback sneak. They didn't need much to get the first down.

Beaten by Tripp by one minute.

Re: Around the NFL week 10
 

I only punt to New Orleans there if I have a great punter that can pin them inside the ten. If not, the only call is to go for it. If you get a punt blocked, give up a long return, or shank it, you're going to lose anyway.

Re: Around the NFL week 10
 

The Falcons went for it on their own 30.
Maybe you try this at the opponents 45 or deeper but they gave them the ball already in field goal range.
:pffff:

Re: Around the NFL week 10
 

[quote=Alvin Walton;859341]The Falcons went for it on their own 30.
Maybe you try this at the opponents 45 or deeper but they gave them the ball already in field goal range.
:pffff:[/quote]

It was only a few inches. A QB sneak is practically unstoppable with that kind of distance. The Falcons' mistake was opting for a slow-developing power run instead of the QB sneak.

Re: Around the NFL week 10
 

[quote=SirClintonPortis;859349]It was only a few inches. A QB sneak is [B]practically unstoppable[/B] with that kind of distance. The Falcons' mistake was opting for a slow-developing power run instead of the QB sneak.[/quote]

I agree that the play call was lousy and a sneak was a better call.

That said, I reject the argument that if you punt to Brees, he will beat you. the Falcons had already stopped Brees several times. It is not like the score was a 48-48 shootout. A good punt would have made Brees go a long way for the win.

If you miss on the "practically unstoppable," it is game over. The negative risk was not worth it.

Re: Around the NFL week 10
 

[quote=Lotus;859378]
That said, I reject the argument that if you punt to Brees, he will beat you. the Falcons had already stopped Brees several times. It is not like the score was a 48-48 shootout. A good punt would have made Brees go a long way for the win.[/quote]

I disagree. The Falcons stopped Brees once in overtime. However, the Saints were able to sustain three long drives on the Falcons on three of their scoring possessions in the 3rd and 4th quarters.

First Saints drive in the 2nd half:
Missed FG at the ATL 22
Drive started at the NO 18

Second Saints drive in the 2nd half:
Touchdown
Drive started at the NO 18

Third Saints drive
FG from turnover. Drive stated on the ATL 26

4th drive
FG on a drive that started from the NO 12

5th Saints drive
Onside kick gives Saints good field position at the ATL 44. They got to the ATL 27 and kicked a FG, but a holding call screwed them over.

Re: Around the NFL week 10
 

[quote=Lotus;859378]

If you miss on the "practically unstoppable," it is game over. The negative risk was not worth it.[/quote]

I would say it depends. If it is 50/50, aka 50%, you don't take the risk. But if the risk of failure is only 1 in 10, I think it's a risk worth taking. And with QB sneaks, they truly are really hard to stop.

[url=http://www.advancednflstats.com/2011/11/qb-sneak-vs-rb-dive.html]Advanced NFL Stats: QB Sneak vs. RB Dive[/url]
According to here, out of 31 attempt QB sneaks with 1 yard to go, 82% of them succeed. Or they work about 4 out of 5 times.

Re: Around the NFL week 10
 

I think if you go play action, then you're gambling, because you can slip a guy behind a defense and win the game right there. What the Falcons called wasn't a gamble at all, it was the percentage play.

Let me point out that the aggressor there wasn't Mike Smith, who made the percentage play. The aggressor was Gregg Williams who sent 10 guys in every gap to be in the backfield. Williams guessed right on the call. If he guesses wrong, the Falcons win the game on that play.

So good call by the Falcons, but you need to know your opponent. If you're going to give your opponent a shot to win the game on a 4th and inches stop, you should go down attacking, not just playing the percentages.

Re: Around the NFL week 10
 

[quote=Lotus;859378]I agree that the play call was lousy and a sneak was a better call.

That said, I reject the argument that if you punt to Brees, he will beat you. the Falcons had already stopped Brees several times. It is not like the score was a 48-48 shootout. A good punt would have made Brees go a long way for the win.

[B]If you miss on the "practically unstoppable," it is game over. The negative risk was not worth it.[/B][/quote]The AAS probability model suggests that the Falcons were still 18% to win after the turnover on downs.

That's everything that could go wrong for the Saints. A missed FG, a turnover, a tipped pass, holding, dropped snap. The game is not over right there. I think 18% is still a high estimate, just because of how efficient the Saints are at getting points. But that's only fuel for the argument that the clearest path is to go for it, and get it.

The other thing to point out is that in their last drive of regulation, the Saints had the ball at the same spot they got it in overtime in a high leverage situation, and they ended up punting. So like the Belichick decision in 2009, the team isn't dead in the water among failing to get a first down. It's just that winning is unlikely.

I think too often people look at punting as a free 40 yards. I think if we look back at the prior 6 Redskins seasons before this one, the amount of times the Redskins actually moved a team 40+ yards back on a punt was probably close to zero. I'm thinking 80% or more of all punts increase the likelihood that the team that punts loses the game, in one way or another. And I think that Mike Smith is smart for realizing that punting that ball is merely one of a lot of bad options.

It's better than the outcome the Falcons got, but Smith is right to say if they couldn't get a yard, they shouldn't have won the game.

Re: Around the NFL week 10
 

Rex Ryan cursing at the fans. LOL. About 25 seconds into the video. "Belichick is better than you!" "Shut the f*ck up!!"

I love seeing that guy lose football games.

[url=http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=eWS_PUBzv4Y]Jets Coach Rex Ryan Curses at Fan - YouTube[/url]

Re: Around the NFL week 10
 

Looks like Matt Cassel might be done for the year

Re: Around the NFL week 10
 

[quote=SmootSmack;859432]Looks like Matt Cassel might be done for the year[/quote]

And just like that your boy Stanzi is a heartbeat away from being a starter in this league.

Re: Around the NFL week 10
 

Wow, penalized for a Salute to the Troops during Veterans Day Weekend. How is this excessive celebration?

[url=http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2011/extramustard/hotclicks/11/14/catrinel-menghia-eric-decker-penalized-for-saluting-to-troops/index.html?xid=cnnbin]Catrinel Menghia; Eric Decker penalized for saluting to troops: Hot Clicks - SI.com - Extra Mustard[/url]

Re: Around the NFL week 10
 

Just saw a TWEET from John Clayton. Matt Schaub will be out several weeks with a "significant" foot injury.

[quote]ClaytonESPN John Clayton
Matt Schaub has significant foot injury and will be out several weeks.[/quote]

Re: Around the NFL week 10
 

[quote=sandtrapjack;859492]Just saw a TWEET from John Clayton. Matt Schaub will be out several weeks with a "significant" foot injury.[/quote]

Hot Tub's career revival begins now.

Re: Around the NFL week 10
 

Now they're saying Schaub done for the year. Man, just when it looks like Houston finally has it turned around...

Andre Johnson, Mario Williams, now Matt Schaub... that's 3 of their 4 best players.

We complain about the Skins injuries, but that's a huge dagger for the Texans right there. Ouch.

Re: Around the NFL week 10
 

ddddddamnnnn Schaub was my starter in 3 of my fantasy teams.