Re: Peyton Manning or RGIII your choice
 

[quote=44Deezel;884144]Can we all agree to a rule that no one is allowed to say, "Manning will get killed behind our O line"?

He was sacked 16 times in 2010. The Same O line gave up 35 last year.[/quote]

There is a difference between getting sacked and getting rushed or hit after the ball is delivered. But I'll say this..... PM will not hold on to the ball in the back field like a statue waiting to get hit. He'll make smarter decisions as to where to go with the ball. Plus he should be able to read the defense better then what we got now.

Re: Peyton Manning or RGIII your choice
 

[quote=EARTHQUAKE2689;884181]Pretty good. I'm a manager at a Gamestop now, doesn't pay as much as Genreal Manager does but I still get the bills paid.[/quote]

I imagine you are 100x better at your job than that fool was. That counts for something.

Re: Peyton Manning or RGIII your choice
 

[quote=NC_Skins;884146]I"m sorry. I missed the 49ers being in the top 10 in the draft this year.


[B]Insanity is doing the same things over and over expecting different results.[/B] I figured you guys would have "gotten it" over this past decade but apparently you long for the Cerrato era back again. *sighs*[/quote]

Holey crap. I had no idea you put this up, I was on page 3 when I wrote the same thing in a responce. Scarey.

Re: Peyton Manning or RGIII your choice
 

[quote=SirClintonPortis;884184]All you have done is highlighted yet another example of the equivocation fallacy.[/quote]Call it intentional.

Re: Peyton Manning or RGIII your choice
 

[QUOTE=NC_Skins;884187]I imagine you are 100x better at your job than that fool was. That counts for something.[/QUOTE]

Lol true, and for the record I see why people don't wanna trade up for RGIII. Am I gonna turn in my fan card if we sign Manning, draft Blackmon and Foles? No. Just from my stance RGIII will be the best player in this draft down the road in my opinion. But I never said we should go Ditka for him. I still think he could be there at 6. All it takes is an average combine from him and someone like Riley Reiff or Dre Kirkpatrick wowing the scouts.

Re: Peyton Manning or RGIII your choice
 

I'm in with a healthy Peyton Manning. More building through the draft.

Re: Peyton Manning or RGIII your choice
 

[quote=GTripp0012;884176]Franchise quarterbacks are fun. Until 2012 happens, Alex Smith both is and is not a franchise quarterback, depending on the argument you are trying to make. And even better, you don't have to believe one or the other. You can just use the term or reject the term as it suits you.[/quote]

For these reasons you'll see that I avoid the term "franchise QB" whenever possible and instead use adjectives describing QB quality or longevity.

Re: Peyton Manning or RGIII your choice
 

[quote=biffle;884177]5. I couldn't care less if the Redskins become "playoff contenders". I want them to become "Super Bowl contenders". There's a difference. And teams that don't set their sights on titles never win them.[/quote]

You (and the others) remind me of this scene.

[YT]Tq0Agic51O0[/YT]


You'll swing away blowing your chance to be a consistent winner, just so you can hit the big shot.

What happens if RGIII busts? You trade the farm again in 3 years for the next big thing? And that guy busts? You trade the farm again in 3 more years? The cycle continues until you finally hit the big one eh?...lol

There are times to take chances, and times you don't. We are in no situation to be taking many chances, much like Roy wasn't.

Re: Peyton Manning or RGIII your choice
 

[quote=44Deezel;884148]Good case, but the money spent on Manning will hamper their ability to sign other free agents that could end up being as valuable, if not more, than some of their draft picks. His health is a legitimate concern at this point.[/quote]

Come on folks PM is not going to command our whole available CAP money. On top of that we really don't need to go out and pick up 10 FA's. We need a Vet QB and WR. Then possibly a FS or CB. The rest I'd take in the draft and by trading back we'd get more picks.

Re: Peyton Manning or RGIII your choice
 

[quote=NC_Skins;884146]I"m sorry. I missed the 49ers being in the top 10 in the draft this year.


Insanity is doing the same things over and over expecting different results. I figured you guys would have "gotten it" over this past decade but apparently you long for the Cerrato era back again. *sighs*[/quote]

They have had a top-11 pick every year from 2005 until this past season. One was used in a trade down.

But deliberately getting a top-11 pick every year would grate you due to your ethics about sport, now would it? ;)

Re: Peyton Manning or RGIII your choice
 

[quote=Lotus;884192]For these reasons you'll see that I avoid the term "franchise QB" whenever possible and instead use adjectives describing QB quality or longevity.[/quote]I'm typically a bit more careless with my words (there is a lot of them after all) but I agree that to expect people to use loaded terms less often, it helps to set a strong example.

Re: Peyton Manning or RGIII your choice
 

[quote=NC_Skins;884193]You (and the others) remind me of this scene.

[YT]Tq0Agic51O0[/YT]


You'll swing away blowing your chance to be a consistent winner, just so you can hit the big shot.

What happens if RGIII busts? You trade the farm again in 3 years for the next big thing? And that guy busts? You trade the farm again in 3 more years? The cycle continues until you finally hit the big one eh?...lol

There are times to take chances, and times you don't. We are in no situation to be taking many chances, much like Roy wasn't.[/quote]

-Ignore every point that doesn't help your argument
-Couch your nonsense and hyperbole in condescension
-Rinse
-Repeat

Re: Peyton Manning or RGIII your choice
 

You wanna blame anyone for these arguments and threads: Matt Barkley.

If not for him it would be a guarantee that we would have either him or RGIII and wouldn't have to worry about trades. Now there's a guy I hope busts.

Re: Peyton Manning or RGIII your choice
 

[quote=EARTHQUAKE2689;884166]I'd still make the trade if they wanted 2012 and 2013 1st, 2012 2nd or 3rd and 2013 3rd[/quote]

Wow. Just wow.

Re: Peyton Manning or RGIII your choice
 

[quote=diehardskin2982;884072]Let's have a direct discussion. If you're the Redskins who do you pick?[QUOTE=Tandler].....of what likely will be two first-round picks, a second, and possibly other assorted selections.[/quote]

[url=http://www.realredskins.com/rich-tandlers-real-redsk/2012/02/redskins-much-choose-between-manning-griffin.html]Redskins must choose between Manning, Griffin - Rich Tandler's Real Redskins[/url][/QUOTE]

Peyton Manning.

I love Robert Griffin as a prospect but for me the difference between drafting him @6 as opposed to giving up the amount of resources Tandler suggests (2 firsts, a second and possibly more) is a deal breaker for me.

With Griffin the gamble is the same as with any rookie QB where historically the success rate is right around 50/50 its even lower when using the 'franchise' QB or 'elite' QB label as the measure of success.

The gamble with Peyton Manning is much lower.
Its not a question of whether or not he'll 'become' a franchise or elite QB, he already has proven that he is elite.
The only question about Peyton is a health question.
I guess for me it boils down to the probablity of Peyton Manning being healthy vs probability of a rookie QB reaching 'franchise' or 'elite' status.

Further the risk of Peyton Manning can be mitigated by signing a journeyman QB and drafting a later round developmental QB.
And Manning reduces the urgency to have a QB of the future ready to play this year.
Peyton Manning buys time to either develop a mid/late round QB over time or to wait a year or a few before drafting the next Luck or Griffin in 2014 or 2015.

Re: Peyton Manning or RGIII your choice
 

So this ended up being a pretty good question. Not an obvious answer, despite the run on Griffin responses at the start of the thread.

Re: Peyton Manning or RGIII your choice
 

[QUOTE=SBXVII;884200]Wow. Just wow.[/QUOTE]

Yep. I shock people.

Re: Peyton Manning or RGIII your choice
 

[quote=biffle;884198]-Ignore every point that doesn't help your argument
-Couch your nonsense and hyperbole in condescension
-Rinse
-Repeat[/quote]

You're quite clear about your stance. You are willing to blow the future of a good football team for a mere chance of having a QB, even if the odds are 40% of hitting the mark. I on the other hand am not. Not at this time. Get back to me when we shore up a few holes and add some more depth.

Also, I wasn't trying to be condescending either.

Re: Peyton Manning or RGIII your choice
 

The day that every football fan realizes that draft picks are just another currency like the dollar or euro will be a decent day for me, barring tragic events. And of course, using them wisely also matters.

Re: Peyton Manning or RGIII your choice
 

[quote=30gut;884201]With Griffin the gamble is the same as with any rookie QB where historically the success rate is right around 50/50 its even lower when using the 'franchise' QB or 'elite' QB label as the measure of success.
[/quote]

The real world doesn't work that way. Griffin has virtually nothing in common with Ryan Leaf or Jamarcus Russell, whether you're looking at backgrounds, education, skillset, production, character or temperments. Not to mention, Griffin will be stepping into a situation that will likely bear little resemblence to what the other 2 walked into.

So, to suggest the former's chances of success decline by some percentage because of the failures of the latter two is really wrongheaded, at absolute best.

Re: Peyton Manning or RGIII your choice
 

why would manning even want to come here? i don't see him coming here. i could see him ending up on some team that no one woul even imagine like the raiders.

and as for rg3 if he falls to 6 i'd love to see us take him, otherwise fall back and stock up. i think the worst thing shanny can do is make a move that gives up draft picks. if this franchise has changed for real there needs to be patience. i dont think that shanny is sold on rg3, and if he isn't 100% he can't afford to set this team back anymore. i say take a qb in the 2nd and another one later on. i know i'm in the minority but i am totally fine with having another building year. this team has been run into the ground the past decade with draft picks treated like garbage. this past year was a great draft and i would love to see another just llike it. let's be realistic and build this team the right way, you never know what can on the feild during game time. as much as i hate it when people brag about it we did beat the giants this year and the packers last year. it doesn;t mean we were a very good team but it does mean we can wina few tough games while we build the team for the future. httr!

Re: Peyton Manning or RGIII your choice
 

[quote=SirClintonPortis;884207]The day that every football fan realizes that draft picks are just another currency like the dollar or euro will be a decent day for me, barring tragic events. And of course, using them wisely also matters.[/quote]

Vinny (and Joe Gibbs) treated it like it was monopoly money. :frusty:


[IMG]http://www.unwelcomeguests.net/images/8/8a/572.jpg[/IMG]

Re: Peyton Manning or RGIII your choice
 

[quote=NC_Skins;884204]You're quite clear about your stance. You are willing to blow the future of a good football team for a mere chance of having a QB, even if the odds are 40% of hitting the mark. I on the other hand am not. Not at this time. Get back to me when we shore up a few holes and add some more depth.[/quote]

I refer to my previous statement.

Re: Peyton Manning or RGIII your choice
 

[quote=biffle;884208]The real world doesn't work that way. Griffin has virtually nothing in common with Ryan Leaf or Jamarcus Russell, whether you're looking at backgrounds, education, skillset, production, character or temperments. Not to mention, Griffin will be stepping into a situation that will likely bear little resemblence to what the other 2 walked into.

So, to suggest the former's chances of success decline by some percentage because of the failures of the latter two is really wrongheaded, at absolute best.[/quote]

Ah, conditional probability. How I did not expect to see you here. (nerd moment)

Re: Peyton Manning or RGIII your choice
 

[quote][QUOTE=30gut;884201]With Griffin the gamble [B][I][U]is the same as with any rookie QB[/U][/I][/B] where historically the success rate is right around 50/50 its even lower when using the 'franchise' QB or 'elite' QB label as the measure of success.[/quote][quote=biffle;884208]The real world doesn't work that way. Griffin has virtually nothing in common with Ryan Leaf or Jamarcus Russell, whether you're looking at backgrounds, education, skillset, production, character or temperments. Not to mention, Griffin will be stepping into a situation that will likely bear little resemblence to what the other 2 walked into.

So, to suggest the former's chances of success decline by some percentage because of the failures of the latter two is really wrongheaded, at absolute best.[/quote][/QUOTE]Where did I suggest Griffin chances of success decline?

I also missed the part of my post where I made any comparison of Griffin to Leaf or Jamarcus?

I'll chalk it up to an honest mistake.

Cheers-

Re: Peyton Manning or RGIII your choice
 

[quote=biffle;884208]The real world doesn't work that way. Griffin has virtually nothing in common with Ryan Leaf or Jamarcus Russell, whether you're looking at backgrounds, education, skillset, production, character or temperments. Not to mention, Griffin will be stepping into a situation that will likely bear little resemblence to what the other 2 walked into.

So, to suggest the former's chances of success decline by some percentage because of the failures of the latter two is really wrongheaded, at absolute best.[/quote]

Numbers are what they are. Since 1998 (till 2009), there is a 41% success chance of landing a very good QB in the top 5 of the NFL draft.

Griffin or Luck chances at becoming a successful draft pick are still the same. They still have a 41% chance. It is what it is. I would imagine that there is a high probability that one of the two is going to bust.

Re: Peyton Manning or RGIII your choice
 

Let me clarify... I was asking to choose between Manning as a free agent with the health questions but only paying cash.

or

RGIII but paying a 1st 2nd a 1st next year and a 3rd plus some other late round picks

Not manning 100% healthy (no matter what that won't happen) or some dream scenario where RGIII falls to us at 6 and we don't lose picks. I want to know who would want the ransom to get the young arm or take a risk on a legend.

Re: Peyton Manning or RGIII your choice
 

[quote=diehardskin2982;884220]Let me clarify... I was asking to choose between Manning as a free agent with the health questions but only paying cash.

or

RGIII but paying a 1st 2nd a 1st next year and a 3rd plus some other late round picks

Not manning 100% healthy (no matter what that won't happen) or some dream scenario where RGIII falls to us at 6 and we don't lose picks. I want to know who would want the ransom to get the young arm or take a risk on a legend.[/quote]

When you calculate all those other players (that would be used to get RGIII) along with Peyton, it's a no brainer for me. Now if our team were a bit more solid, I would have no issues with giving up the picks if I thought he was that guy.

Re: Peyton Manning or RGIII your choice
 

[quote=diehardskin2982;884220]Let me clarify... I was asking to choose between Manning as a free agent with the health questions but only paying cash.

or

RGIII but paying a 1st 2nd a 1st next year and a 3rd plus some other late round picks

Not manning 100% healthy (no matter what that won't happen) or some dream scenario where RGIII falls to us at 6 and we don't lose picks. I want to know who would want the ransom to get the young arm or take a risk on a legend.[/quote]It's a good question, but it's probably early to ask it because the draft is a considerable distance away, and Manning's availability for the Redskins is nothing more than a rumor at this point.

If Manning is released by the Colts on March 7 and signs with the Colts for two years/$25 million (backloaded - $18 mil in year two) the next day, then he was never planning on leaving Indy to begin with. Then we're targeting someone else who (probably) doesn't adequately solve the need to draft a quarterback.

Re: Peyton Manning or RGIII your choice
 

[quote=30gut;884217]Where did I suggest Griffin chances of success decline?

I also missed the part of my post where I made any comparison of Griffin to Leaf or Jamarcus?

I'll chalk it up to an honest mistake.

Cheers-[/quote]

If you're using a percentage of what previous QBs did as the chances of a current QB succeeding, then that is exactly what you're doing. The chances of Griffin or anyone else working out don't have anything to do with what players they had nothing in common with did or did not do.

There's a reason some organizations draft better than others. It's because you're not throwing names into a hat and you have an [I]x[/I] percent chance that it wil turn out to be a good player.

Leaf and Russell are good examples because they are QBs who were drafted extremely high and didn't work out, therefore-by what ever standard you're using - the 'chance' Griffin works out is supposedly much lower because of them. And those are two players we now know were doomed by horrible attitudes and work ethics, whcih makes them about as similar to Robert Griffin as Danny Devito is.

Re: Peyton Manning or RGIII your choice
 

I would submit that the risky play here isn't RG3, it's Manning. Once you get past the fact that the reported asking price for the no. 2 pick is obscene and fictitious, and that only time elapsing towards the draft plus the ability of the Vikings to join the trade talks is going to make the Rams join reality, the draft becomes a well-established efficient market.

You're not losing value in a trade up for RG3. You're not gaining value in a trade up for RG3 (unless of course you are stealing it from the Rams). You're franchise is worth the same it was before and after an RG3 trade, if it's a fair deal. So trading up for Griffin isn't more or less optimal than staying put and keeping the picks.

Manning though, is inherently a gamble. There's a cap cost, a financial burden, and an opportunity cost to signing Peyton Manning on your team. The only way you can win that gamble and avoid 2012 as a lost year is to have Peyton healthy for a majority of the season, and playing at a high level. Otherwise, signing Manning burns you in the end.

Still, if you can get him, and you have the testicular fortitude to bet your job on it, Mike Shanahan has to get Manning, right? I mean, how could he pass up that chance to win big, even with his job on the line if it doesn't work? If Manning is willing to come here, that's a once a decade acquisition staring you in the face.

Re: Peyton Manning or RGIII your choice
 

[quote=NC_Skins;884218]Numbers are what they are. Since 1998 (till 2009), there is a 41% success chance of landing a very good QB in the top 5 of the NFL draft.

Griffin or Luck chances at becoming a successful draft pick are still the same. They still have a 41% chance. It is what it is. I would imagine that there is a high probability that one of the two is going to bust.[/quote]Missing on Griffin isn't any different than missing on Reilly Reiff, et al. Your chance of salvaging your 2012 draft in the face of an misevaluation at the top of the first round is much greater if you don't make the trade, but it's kind of silly IMO to think of the draft as a proposition where you try to do the least harm.

You get to draft the most valuable assets in the NFL and sign them for 20%-30% of their market value. With that advantage, I wouldn't think of the trade up possibility for Griffin as a huge risk. Think of it as cost-benefit instead. You're not really risking anything of note.

Re: Peyton Manning or RGIII your choice
 

[quote=biffle;884225] If you're using a percentage of what previous QBs did as the chances of a current QB succeeding, then that is exactly what you're doing. The chances of Griffin or anyone else working out don't have anything to do with what players they had nothing in common with did or did not do.[/quote]biffle, the percentage is the percentage.
You don't get to pick and choose (cherry pick).

[quote=biffle;884225]Leaf and Russell are good examples because they are QBs who were drafted extremely high and didn't work out, therefore-by what ever standard you're using - the 'chance' Griffin works out is supposedly much lower because of them. And those are two players we now know were doomed by horrible attitudes and work ethics, whcih makes them about as similar to Robert Griffin as Danny Devito is.[/quote]Dude, c'mon.
You're inventing a point and making a comparison of [I][B]your[/B][/I] own choosing, then arguing against it.

And I'll repeat it here in case you forgot:
[quote][QUOTE=30gut;884201]With Griffin the gamble [B][I][U]is the same as with any rookie QB[/U][/I][/B] where historically the success rate is right around 50/50 its even lower when using the 'franchise' QB or 'elite' QB label as the measure of success.[/quote][quote=biffle;884208]The real world doesn't work that way. Griffin has virtually nothing in common with Ryan Leaf or Jamarcus Russell, whether you're looking at backgrounds, education, skillset, production, character or temperments. Not to mention, Griffin will be stepping into a situation that will likely bear little resemblence to what the other 2 walked into.

So, to suggest the former's chances of success decline by some percentage because of the failures of the latter two is really wrongheaded, at absolute best.[/quote][/QUOTE]Notice again that my quote doesn't contain the comparisons you claim then argue against.

Re: Peyton Manning or RGIII your choice
 

[quote=Schneed10;884143]To me it's a no brainer. You take Peyton Manning and anyone who says otherwise is an idiot.

You get one of the very best quarterbacks in NFL history. You don't have to give up anything but money, so you still get to make all your picks and continue building the team through the draft in a sane fashion. And signing Manning buys you three years to find the QB of the long term future.

With Griffin, yes you get a very talented player who can make plays on the ground and in the air. But you sacrifice a ton of (high) picks to do so. This team still needs talent, we're not one player away, even if that single player is a potential franchise QB.

And in the end, Griffin is an unknown commodity. Sure he seems like he'll translate to the NFL, but so did Akili Smith and Jamarcus Russell and Tim Couch and Cade McNown and Ryan Leaf and on and on and on. To me, Manning's recovery is less of a question mark than whether Griffin will pan out. The stats don't lie, half of the QBs drafted in Round 1 become flops. So don't be so quick to dismiss that possibility with Griffin, I guarantee you the Bengals thought they had a good thing with Akili Smith, as did the Raiders with Russell.

If you want a precedent for this, look at Montana in Kansas City, they went to an AFC title game. Sometimes football is not that complicated. If the best player in NFL history (in my humble opinion) becomes available, you get him.

And think of it this way: if we miss on Griffin we're set back SIGNIFICANTLY in our efforts to return the team to the playoffs. If we miss on Manning and his neck doesn't pan out, at least we still will have filled our squad out with high picks. In the end, the downside with Manning is much less.[/quote]

This.

Griffin is a (totally) unproven prospect. Hell, just a few months ago he was purportedly unsure whether he wanted to play in the NFL this year or go to law school...really?!

C'mon folks. You want your QB to eat, sleep and breath pro football. That's Peyton Manning. The only way he'll sign anywhere is if he believes in his own health/ability to lead his new team to a championship. If he's willing to play in Washington you sign him immediately and do everything you can to surround him with talent.

Re: Peyton Manning or RGIII your choice
 

[quote=30gut;884232]biffle, the percentage is the percentage.
You don't get to pick and choose (cherry pick).

Dude, c'mon.
You're inventing a point and making a comparison of [I][B]your[/B][/I] own choosing, then arguing against it.

And I'll repeat it here in case you forgot:
Notice again that my quote doesn't contain the comparisons you claim then argue against.[/quote]

Statistics will only do you any good if you know how to use them.

Making decisions on what players to acquire based on 'odds' that are calculated by comparing them to completely dissimilar players is a textbook way to misuse them.

People who do things like that are the same people who come back years later and swear that stats are worthless and they can't believe anyone would be dumb enough to listen to them.

Re: Peyton Manning or RGIII your choice
 

Right now I am leaning towards Manning because even if he is a lesser athelete than he was in the past he still has the smarts and knows how to play the NFL game. I think he will be able to compensate for his arm strength like Chad Pennington did as a QB. We can use our picks to build the team and draft a quality QB with 2013's number 1.

Re: Peyton Manning or RGIII your choice
 

[quote=biffle;884234]Making decisions on what players to acquire based on 'odds' that are calculated by comparing them to completely dissimilar players is a textbook way to misuse them.[/quote]You know what would be great? If you could actually post/quote where I've compared Griffin to players that are dissimilar to him?
But, I'm sure you won't because I didn't make that comparison [I][B]you[/B][/I] did.

It would be nice to actually discuss the entire content of my post rather than your repeated false claims, especially since you completely gloss over the fact that I actually like Griffin as prospect.[quote=30gut;884201]I love Robert Griffin as a prospect.[/quote]

The question for me is simple:
Do you think Peyton Manning will be back to 100% (or close) by training camp/Sept?

If yes then I don't see why/how anyone would be against singing PM.
You can always draft the next great QB prospect in a later draft, there will be other great QB prospects there always are.

Re: Peyton Manning or RGIII your choice
 

[quote=30gut;884236]You know what would be great? If you could actually post/quote where I've compared Griffin to players that are dissimilar to him?
But, I'm sure you won't because I didn't make that comparison [I][B]you[/B][/I] did.

It would be nice to actually discuss the entire content of my post rather than your repeated false claims, especially since you completely gloss over the fact that I actually like Griffin as prospect.
[/quote]

When you use the percentage of first round QBs who have worked out, you are using all of them, including Russell and Leaf, whom I used as examples of prospects who drag down that percentage.

Is that really so far beyond your ability to comprehend?

Re: Peyton Manning or RGIII your choice
 

[quote=30gut;884236]You know what would be great? If you could actually post/quote where I've compared Griffin to players that are dissimilar to him?
But, I'm sure you won't because I didn't make that comparison [I][B]you[/B][/I] did.

It would be nice to actually discuss the entire content of my post rather than your repeated false claims, especially since you completely gloss over the fact that I actually like Griffin as prospect.
[/quote]

When you use the percentage of first round QBs who have worked out, you are using all of them, including Russell and Leaf, whom I used as examples of prospects who drag down that percentage.

Is that really so far beyond your ability to comprehend?

Re: Peyton Manning or RGIII your choice
 

[url=http://www.whatifsports.com/beyondtheboxscore/default.asp?article=2012NFL_PeytonManningWhatIf]What-if Peyton Manning played for the Cardinals, Redskins, Jets and Dolphins from WhatIfSports.com From WhatIfSports.com[/url]