Re: The Sam Howell Thread
 

RG3 i don't think was a bad pick, it was running him into the ground his rookie year that was the mistake

they should have let his knee heal and given KC the ball for the remainder of that year

RG3 rookie season was the last year as a Skins fan that i felt something like we had a winner

Re: The Sam Howell Thread
 

[QUOTE=skinsfaninok;1353296]The bears won’t pass up on Caleb Williams and the pats won’t pass up on maye. So in my opinion don’t take a QB at 4 or 5. Take the best LT available or [B]trade back and add picks[/B]


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk[/QUOTE]

I'd be inclined to go this route if there is a willing trade partner. Moving down a few spots in the 1st, and picking up 2-3 more picks is the way to go for this particular squad. We currently have 5 picks in the top 100. We could turn that into 7.

Re: The Sam Howell Thread
 

[quote=SFREDSKIN;1353305]Same was said about RGIII, how that turn out?[/quote]

Hie rookie year was still the funnest season I've ever witnessed as a fan here. I'll never hate on RG3 lol

Re: The Sam Howell Thread
 

[quote=mredskins;1353309]RG3 i don't think was a bad pick, it was running him into the ground his rookie year that was the mistake

they should have let his knee heal and given KC the ball for the remainder of that year

[B]RG3 rookie season was the last year as a Skins fan that i felt something like we had a winner[/B][/quote]

100% Even with KC who I thought was damn good, he never had that Superstar factor.. RG3 did, being a fan of that 2012 season was electric man.

Re: The Sam Howell Thread
 

I think it's pretty clear Sam can play. No idea what his ceiling is, but I think he's a guy worth giving a longer look to and building things up around him, especially the OL and a OC that knows what a running game is would be nice too.

Whether a new GM and HC will agree, we'll see.

Re: The Sam Howell Thread
 

[quote=MTK;1353313]I think it's pretty clear Sam can play. No idea what his ceiling is, but I think he's a guy worth giving a longer look to and building things up around him, especially the OL and a OC that knows what a running game is would be nice too.

Whether a new GM and HC will agree, we'll see.[/quote]

Outside of

MAHOMES
ALLEN
HURTS
BURROW
LAMAR (HIS SYSTEM)
HERBERT
DAK
KIRK

I think you can say Sam Howell has been in the top 10 this season

Why in the world would you just dump him? It makes no sense. Not saying you guys I'm saying a new GM

Re: The Sam Howell Thread
 

[quote=skinsfaninok;1353312]100% Even with KC who I thought was damn good, he never had that Superstar factor.. RG3 did, being a fan of that 2012 season was electric man.[/quote]

i was so proud to be a redskins fan; it was the last jersey i bought good old number 10

Re: The Sam Howell Thread
 

[quote=skinsfaninok;1353315]Outside of

MAHOMES
ALLEN
HURTS
BURROW
LAMAR (HIS SYSTEM)
HERBERT
DAK
KIRK

I think you can say Sam Howell has been in the top 10 this season

Why in the world would you just dump him? It makes no sense. Not saying you guys I'm saying a new GM[/quote]

Sam on a dirt cheap 5th rd deal is certainly going to be very enticing for a new GM

Re: The Sam Howell Thread
 

[quote=mredskins;1353320]i was so proud to be a redskins fan; it was the last jersey i bought good old number 10[/quote]

I've got two Terry jerseys but agree it was a great time

back to Howell

[url]https://x.com/LetMualTellit/status/1729122830602969403?s=20[/url]

Re: The Sam Howell Thread
 

[quote=MTK;1353326]Sam on a dirt cheap 5th rd deal is certainly going to be very enticing for a new GM[/quote]

with 90M to spend and good draft picks

Re: The Sam Howell Thread
 

[quote=skinsfaninok;1353315]Outside of

MAHOMES
ALLEN
HURTS
BURROW
LAMAR (HIS SYSTEM)
HERBERT
DAK
KIRK

I think you can say Sam Howell has been in the top 10 this season

Why in the world would you just dump him? It makes no sense. Not saying you guys I'm saying a new GM[/quote]

A new regime wouldn't dump Howell, but having Howell in the roster will definitely not prevent the new GM from drafting a QB.

Also, the assumption that I'm going with is that the new regime will do a better job at evaluating talent. This means that:

- They will do a better job at filling roster needs through free agency and mid/low draft picks.

- They would do a better job at evaluating a prospective first/high round QB pick.

Some of you talk like we are going to have the same flawed decision makers with the team next year, and that makes no sense.

Re: The Sam Howell Thread
 

[QUOTE=Ruhskins;1353331]A new regime wouldn't dump Howell, but having Howell in the roster will definitely not prevent the new GM from drafting a QB.

Also, the assumption that I'm going with is that the new regime will do a better job at evaluating talent. This means that:

- They will do a better job at filling roster needs through free agency and mid/low draft picks.

- They would do a better job at evaluating a prospective first/high round QB pick.

Some of you talk like we are going to have the same flawed decision makers with the team next year, and that makes no sense.[/QUOTE]


Yup. Snyder is gone. It is an attractive organization again. It is crazy how people are acting like the world is ending because of this season. We knew going into this season that nothing was changing except for the name plate on the owners desk. If you are not giddy about next year than you are completely underestimating the shit stain that was Dan Snyder.

Re: The Sam Howell Thread
 

[quote=punch it in;1353357]Yup. Snyder is gone. It is an attractive organization again. It is crazy how people are acting like the world is ending because of this season. We knew going into this season that nothing was changing except for the name plate on the owners desk. [B]If you are not giddy about next year than you are completely underestimating the shit stain that was Dan Snyder.[/B][/quote]

C'mon, man! Punch, you know that nobody here is underestimating how poor an NFL owner Dan Snyder was. In fact, he was so bad that he's left a residual, if irrational, fear of "What in the world comes next?" in the minds of Washington fans everywhere. We need time to heal.

Re: The Sam Howell Thread
 

[quote=KI Skins Fan;1353360]C'mon, man! Punch, you know that nobody here is underestimating how poor an NFL owner Dan Snyder was. In fact, he was so bad that he's left a residual, if irrational, fear of "What in the world comes next?" in the minds of Washington fans everywhere. We need time to heal.[/quote]

Snyder to all Redskins fans:

[IMG]https://media.tenor.com/LLLl805ToH8AAAAC/rocky-drago-if-he-dies.gif[/IMG]

Re: The Sam Howell Thread
 

Really the culprit the last few years has been Ron more so than Dan. I guess Dan gave him the job as long as Ron played along and gave Haskins a chance. That to me is really what set us back more than anything the last several years.

Re: The Sam Howell Thread
 

[quote=punch it in;1353357]Yup. Snyder is gone. It is an attractive organization again. It is crazy how people are acting like the world is ending because of this season. We knew going into this season that nothing was changing except for the name plate on the owners desk. If you are not giddy about next year than you are completely underestimating the shit stain that was Dan Snyder.[/quote]

The organization is trending up with DS gone, but literally every position group outside of DT needs an upgrade. We'll have a lot of cap space and a few more draft picks than normal, but I'm tempering my expectations that there will be some glorious turnaround in one year.

A playoff birth is probably the ceiling for 2024 with (likely) a last place schedule on the horizon - IF Sam continues to progress, the O-line is fixed, the defense is fixed, and we hit on some draft picks.

The fact is, it will be new front office, new scouts, new coaches, new schemes, a bunch of new players... that's a lot to put together and expect much. Can it be done? Sure. I'm just not holding my breath for next year's team to be [U]markedly[/U] better than this year's team.

IF they are able to hit on GM, HC, DC/OC, free agency, and the draft - then I think 2025 is where the leap will occur.

Re: The Sam Howell Thread
 

We really fucked ourselves going defense in the first round of 5 out of the last 6 drafts. 2 players already gone, Forbes having an rough rookie year, Allen/Payne going quiet this year and Jamin Davis looking more unremarkable by the week. Who knows how many years we set ourselves back with that stretch. Next coach has a tough task rebuilding this roster.

Re: The Sam Howell Thread
 

[quote=Chief X_Phackter;1353365]The organization is trending up with DS gone, but literally every position group outside of DT needs an upgrade. We'll have a lot of cap space and a few more draft picks than normal, but I'm tempering my expectations that there will be some glorious turnaround in one year.

[B]A playoff birth is probably the ceiling for 2024[/B] with (likely) a last place schedule on the horizon - IF Sam continues to progress, the O-line is fixed, the defense is fixed, and we hit on some draft picks.

The fact is, it will be new front office, new scouts, new coaches, new schemes, a bunch of new players... that's a lot to put together and expect much. Can it be done? Sure. I'm just not holding my breath for next year's team to be [U]markedly[/U] better than this year's team.

IF they are able to hit on GM, HC, DC/OC, free agency, and the draft - then I think 2025 is where the leap will occur.[/quote]

I'll gladly take a playoff appearance if it's an over .500 record appearance. Not the kind Rivera backed into a few years ago.

Give us playoffs and a punchers chance. HUGE upgrade over our normal dog-ass seasons.

If we win 10 games in 2024, that's a big success, because like you said, we have a lot of holes. But with money, extra picks, and some general competence, it's not out of the realm of possibilities.

Re: The Sam Howell Thread
 

Definitely not out of the realm of possibilities, just have to hit on several things and get a little lucky along the way.

Re: The Sam Howell Thread
 

[quote=Chief X_Phackter;1353383]Definitely not out of the realm of possibilities, just have to hit on several things and get a little lucky along the way.[/quote]

Outside of the top 5ish teams, I think this is true for pretty much everyone. They're all professionals, winning 10 games ain't easy.

Re: The Sam Howell Thread
 

[url]https://x.com/alexansimon85/status/1729237180072014174?s=46[/url]


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Re: The Sam Howell Thread
 

[quote=skinsfaninok;1353389][url]https://x.com/alexansimon85/status/1729237180072014174?s=46[/url]

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk[/quote]

Jamf:

[IMG]https://cliply.co/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/392001500_EYES_EMOJI_400.png[/IMG]

Re: The Sam Howell Thread
 

[QUOTE=skinsfaninok;1353389][url]https://x.com/alexansimon85/status/1729237180072014174?s=46[/url]


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk[/QUOTE]


Sam is also playing on a cheap contract. All the talk about new regime wanting their guy is ridiculous.

Re: The Sam Howell Thread
 

Regardless of what you think about SH / EB , After 12 weeks Sam Howell is still the leagues leading passer.

When is the last time a Washington QB led the league in passing for a whole season? Sam may do that this yr

Re: The Sam Howell Thread
 

[quote=skinsfaninok;1353427]Regardless of what you think about SH / EB , After 12 weeks Sam Howell is still the leagues leading passer.

When is the last time a Washington QB led the league in passing for a whole season? Sam may do that this yr[/quote]

But that doesn't mean sh*t when you finish with a record that will garner you a top 5 draft pick.

Re: The Sam Howell Thread
 

[quote=skinsfaninok;1353427]Regardless of what you think about SH / EB , After 12 weeks Sam Howell is still the leagues leading passer.

When is the last time a Washington QB led the league in passing for a whole season? Sam may do that this yr[/quote]

He would have his work cut out for him. Through 12 weeks he has played one more game than most QBs because of the byes. Stroud is less than 100 yards behind him with one less game for example.

If he does that would be awesome he has some incredibly challenging defenses coming up that I am looking forward to seeing how he plays. Dallas was the best defense he has faced and a really good one and he looked pretty good till the 4th quarter. It was still a 20-10 game until then.

Re: The Sam Howell Thread
 

[quote=Ruhskins;1353428]But that doesn't mean sh*t when you finish with a record that will garner you a top 5 draft pick.[/quote]

Bengals got a pick in the top 5 after a year with Burrow. Bengals used the pick to draft Chase... We all already saw the result of this.

Re: The Sam Howell Thread
 

[quote=skinsfaninok;1353427]Regardless of what you think about SH / EB , After 12 weeks Sam Howell is still the leagues leading passer.

[B]When is the last time a Washington QB led the league in passing for a whole season? Sam may do that this yr[/B][/quote]

In yardage, its a bit of a fools gold stat to hang your pride on.

I prefer to use QBR rating which accounts for a number of variables to determine a QB's "worth"

SH's current QBR is twenty first in the league.

We may have something in Sam but I am also saying don't go into next year saying QB1 is a lock. If something better presents its self I definitely bring it in and have it fight it out with SH.

Re: The Sam Howell Thread
 

If you lead the league in pass attempts, you should probably be the league's leading passer - or close to it. That stat means nothing to me really, other than he has an OC that doesn't like to run the ball much, despite the fact that our running backs are # 6 in the league in yards per attempt. It's quite puzzling actually, and why I'm not sold on EB as OC or HC.

Re: The Sam Howell Thread
 

Just peering into the stats a bit trying to figure out why Terry Mac is in a funk - he's dropping more passes than typical this year and he looks out of sync with Sam.

First thing I see is Terry Mac has 60 catches on 97 targets. He's by far Sam's most targeted receiver (next highest is Dotson with 69 targets) and yet for whatever reason that catch rate is abysmal compared to our other receivers.

Terry - 60/97 (catches/targets)
C. Samuel - 47/63
Dotson - 42/69
Logan T - 45/62
B.Rob - 29/36
A. Gibson - 33/39
Dyami Brown - 11/21

Now obviously Sam loves to spread the ball around - we have 11 different players who have received at least 14 targets. But Terry has 97! targets (still lower than league leading receivers like Tyreek Hill/Ceedee Lamb) and only 60 catches for 694 yards, which is half what Hill has.

Just for comparison - top 5 receivers by stats this year:

Tyreek Hill: 88 rec, 120 targets, 1324 yards, 10 td's
Ceedee Lamb: 90 catches, 121 targets, 1182 yards, 7 td's
Keenan Allen: 97 catches, 129 targets, 1117 yards, 7 td's
A.J. Brown: 73 catches, 105 targets, 1050 yards, 7 td's
DJ Moore: 70 catches, 93 targets, 1003 yards, 6 td's
....
Terry Mac: 60 catches, 97 targets, 694 yards, 2 td's

He's having a down year and I can't tell if it's because he's out of sync with Sam Howell or if he's playing hurt, or if it's Bieniemy's scheme. But something's off. I don't want to say it's because Howell throws inaccurate passes (he does on occasion, but Howell also has a 66% completion rate which is pretty good). But there's definitely room for improvement. Terry's long for the season is 36 yards too which isn't great.

Going into a bit of a deeper dive [URL="https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/M/McLaTe00.htm"](thanks to PFR)[/URL] historically Terry's YPC looks like this: 15.8, 12.9, 13.7, 15.5 - this year it's 11.6 which would be a new low for him. His catch rate for 2023 is 61.9% which apparently is not far off his career average of 62.5%. Compared to the greats though it's not in the same level - Tyreek Hill's career average is 68.7%, Stefon Diggs' career average is 69% (nice), Travis Kelce's career average is 71.6%.

Terry's yards after catch per reception is down as well - historically it was 3.7yac/r, 5.5, 4.1, 5.1, but this year it's 3.4. He also has tied his career high for drops in a season with 5 this year and we still have 5 games left. His percentage of drops this year is also higher than ever - 5.2 this year compared to 4.3, 2.2, 3.8, and 2.5 in 2022.

TL;DR: Statistically he's having a down year as well. Not a huge deal seeing as how this is a wasted year anyways but if we are to be better next year he needs to regain his playmaking form. His yards after catch was always a big part of his game but this year it's almost nonexistant. He's always had good hands but this year he's on rate to drop more passes than ever. And obviously the glaring stats - he hasn't had a dominant game in over a year - every elite WR has at least one every year. We need more from him.

Re: The Sam Howell Thread
 

I won’t be shocked if we learn after the season that Terry has been playing hurt all year with that toe injury

Re: The Sam Howell Thread
 

Out of curiosity do you have the number/rate of drops for those receivers? Targets are one thing, but if we're seeing consistently tight coverage, how many of those targets are uncatchable? Maybe that speaks to the effectiveness of the scheme, that the QB and receivers are getting the numbers they are despite the scheme (not getting open) not because of it?

I also think everyone is having a down year playing under lame duck coaches (potentially including EB). The numbers may not be regression as much as depression...

Re: The Sam Howell Thread
 

Been less impressed with our receivers this year than Howell performance

Dotson has been a ghost in some games this year and Terry, based on Keim and others film review, is not getting separation like he has in the past

Re: The Sam Howell Thread
 

How do guys just forget how to get separation? Very weird to have basically a team wide dip in that statistic.

Re: The Sam Howell Thread
 

I think Terry is hurt , he has to be. Dude has been a ghost

Re: The Sam Howell Thread
 

[quote=mooby;1353533]Just peering into the stats a bit trying to figure out why Terry Mac is in a funk - he's dropping more passes than typical this year and he looks out of sync with Sam.

First thing I see is Terry Mac has 60 catches on 97 targets. He's by far Sam's most targeted receiver (next highest is Dotson with 69 targets) and yet for whatever reason that catch rate is abysmal compared to our other receivers.

Terry - 60/97 (catches/targets)
C. Samuel - 47/63
Dotson - 42/69
Logan T - 45/62
B.Rob - 29/36
A. Gibson - 33/39
Dyami Brown - 11/21

Now obviously Sam loves to spread the ball around - we have 11 different players who have received at least 14 targets. But Terry has 97! targets (still lower than league leading receivers like Tyreek Hill/Ceedee Lamb) and only 60 catches for 694 yards, which is half what Hill has.

Just for comparison - top 5 receivers by stats this year:

Tyreek Hill: 88 rec, 120 targets, 1324 yards, 10 td's
Ceedee Lamb: 90 catches, 121 targets, 1182 yards, 7 td's
Keenan Allen: 97 catches, 129 targets, 1117 yards, 7 td's
A.J. Brown: 73 catches, 105 targets, 1050 yards, 7 td's
DJ Moore: 70 catches, 93 targets, 1003 yards, 6 td's
....
Terry Mac: 60 catches, 97 targets, 694 yards, 2 td's

He's having a down year and I can't tell if it's because he's out of sync with Sam Howell or if he's playing hurt, or if it's Bieniemy's scheme. But something's off. I don't want to say it's because Howell throws inaccurate passes (he does on occasion, but Howell also has a 66% completion rate which is pretty good). But there's definitely room for improvement. Terry's long for the season is 36 yards too which isn't great.

Going into a bit of a deeper dive [URL="https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/M/McLaTe00.htm"](thanks to PFR)[/URL] historically Terry's YPC looks like this: 15.8, 12.9, 13.7, 15.5 - this year it's 11.6 which would be a new low for him. His catch rate for 2023 is 61.9% which apparently is not far off his career average of 62.5%. Compared to the greats though it's not in the same level - Tyreek Hill's career average is 68.7%, Stefon Diggs' career average is 69% (nice), Travis Kelce's career average is 71.6%.

Terry's yards after catch per reception is down as well - historically it was 3.7yac/r, 5.5, 4.1, 5.1, but this year it's 3.4. He also has tied his career high for drops in a season with 5 this year and we still have 5 games left. His percentage of drops this year is also higher than ever - 5.2 this year compared to 4.3, 2.2, 3.8, and 2.5 in 2022.

TL;DR: Statistically he's having a down year as well. Not a huge deal seeing as how this is a wasted year anyways but if we are to be better next year he needs to regain his playmaking form. His yards after catch was always a big part of his game but this year it's almost nonexistant. He's always had good hands but this year he's on rate to drop more passes than ever. And obviously the glaring stats - he hasn't had a dominant game in over a year - every elite WR has at least one every year. We need more from him.[/quote]

Those are good data, nice job!

Re: The Sam Howell Thread
 

I think it's EB. The only thing that has looked pretty good since he took over as OC is how many yards Howell throws for. Literally everything else is 'off'. He can exit stage right right along with RR in January. I've seen enough.

Re: The Sam Howell Thread
 

[quote=AnonEmouse;1353536]Out of curiosity do you have the number/rate of drops for those receivers? Targets are one thing, but if we're seeing consistently tight coverage, how many of those targets are uncatchable? Maybe that speaks to the effectiveness of the scheme, that the QB and receivers are getting the numbers they are despite the scheme (not getting open) not because of it?

I also think everyone is having a down year playing under lame duck coaches (potentially including EB). The numbers may not be regression as much as depression...[/quote]

If you use this [url]https://espnanalytics.com/rtm/[/url] and sort by catch you can see how all receivers are performing based on expected catch rate. Terry is doing pretty well. But if you sort by open he is just not getting open as much. That leads me to believe toe injury? But his history suggests he hasn't been great at getting open through his career minus his rookie year.

Interesting from Mooby's stats is that Tyreek is the outlier. He isn't top ten in any metric although he is close on getting open.

Re: The Sam Howell Thread
 

[quote=Chief X_Phackter;1353548]I think it's EB. The only thing that has [B]looked pretty good since he took over as OC is how many yards Howell throws for.[/B] Literally everything else is 'off'. He can exit stage right right along with RR in January. I've seen enough.[/quote]

At this point its a black eye on EB because it just shows how unbalanced his scheme is; SH is reaping the benefits of it but in reality its not a winning formula.

If we had a more balanced attack, sacks would be down SH yards would be down but we probably have more wins.

Leading in total yards is really not a great measuring stick of success; its QBR and last time i checked SH was 20 something in the league rating.

I still think we have something in SH we have nothing in EB. If EB is out of the league next year would not be shocked. He MIGHT be a RB coach or QB coach somewhere. He is straight up fools gold.

Re: The Sam Howell Thread
 

[quote=mredskins;1353559]At this point its a black eye on EB because it just shows how unbalanced his scheme is; SH is reaping the benefits of it but in reality its not a winning formula.

If we had a more balanced attack, sacks would be down SH yards would be down but we probably have more wins.

Leading in total yards is really not a great measuring stick of success; its QBR and last time i checked SH was 20 something in the league rating.

I still think we have something in SH we have nothing in EB. If EB is out of the league next year would not be shocked. He MIGHT be a RB coach or QB coach somewhere. He is straight up fools gold.[/quote]

Don't you think being down in QBR is a detriment on Howell as well?

I have no stake or care about EB, but I don't get this idea that he has contributed nothing to Howell's success or that somehow Howell is creating his own success in a vacuum.

I do agree with your point that everyone seems to get too enamored with total yards and it should not be a measuring stick for success in a QB.