Re: Somebody please try to convince me that the FO has a plan.
 

[quote=Daniel Snyder;543757]Oh we have a plan. I have watched you Warpathers for ages now. I watched you spring for the earth like a budding tree. Different than your "ExtremeSkins" brethren, I enjoy you.

You tell me like it is. [B]You love and hate me[/B] all at the same time.

I feel it is time to give back.

Ask away gentlemen, ask away.[/quote]

Wait wait, we love you? Nah. I've been posting here for nearly three years, and never once have I heard "love" for you. Occasional happiness at a decision or two, but never "love."

Which warpather got drunk tonight and decided to create an alter ego?

Re: Somebody please try to convince me that the FO has a plan.
 

^^^OK OK....maybe I was being a little generous with "Love".

What I mean by "love" is a lesser degree of hate, thats all.

Re: Somebody please try to convince me that the FO has a plan.
 

[quote=GMScud;543765]Wait wait, we love you? Nah. I've been posting here for nearly three years, and never once have I heard "love" for you. Occasional happiness at a decision or two, but never "love."

[B]Which warpather got drunk tonight and decided to create an alter ego?[/B][/quote]

You guys do this?

I want in.

Re: Somebody please try to convince me that the FO has a plan.
 

[quote=Daniel Snyder;543767]You guys do this?

I want in.[/quote]


Me too obv lol

Re: Somebody please try to convince me that the FO has a plan.
 

[quote=GTripp0012;543742]If the criteria is "solid starter", as defined as a player who you don't need to replace three years into his career, then 50% isn't even close to accurate. 50% seems to be about the rate at which you seem to get the player the scouts think you are getting. But observe, the rarity of the prospect who gets taken in the first round, and teams just totally miss on:

[U]2004
[/U]20. Kenechi Udeze
22. JP Losman
23. Marcus Tubbs
25. Ahmad Carroll
27. Jason Babin
31. Rashaun Woods

[U]2005
[/U]1. Alex Smith
7. Troy Williamson
10. Mike Williams
17. David Pollack** (freak injury)
18. Erasmus James
19. Alex Barron
26. Chris Spencer

[U]2006
[/U]3. Vince Young
16. Jason Allen
18. Bobby Carpenter
22. Manny Lawson
26. John McCargo
31. Kelly Jennings

[U]2007[/U] (Small Sample Size -- not error proof)
1. JaMarcus Russell
8. Jamaal Anderson
16. Justin Harrell
17. Jarvis Moss
26. Anthony Spencer
27. Robert Meachem
30. Craig Davis

[U]2008[/U] (projected)
6. Vernon Gholston
8. Derrick Harvey
14. Chris Williams ** (chronic injury)
25. Mike Jenkins
29. Kentwan Balmer

This is not an exahaustive list of players who disappointed as first round picks, but it is a list of players who never gave their team positive value over replacement level. But the point is, this is [B]only 20%[/B] of the players drafted in the last five years. Historic numbers might be closer to 50%, but since the draft went mainstream, you have [B]an 80%[/B] chance of landing a player who can fit somewhere on your team, and not represent a weakness.

If you limit the sample to top ten picks, it gets all the way up to an 88% hit rate. Given of course, you don't want to end up with a minor contributing meathead like Reggie Williams (who counts in the 88% here) if you are picking in the top ten, but Reggie Williams did provide some value as a receiver in his five years in Jacksonville.

The 50% hit rate you mention is the rate of getting an NFL type player out of a [B]third round pick[/B]. Third rounders in recent history have about a half-shot of never amounting to anything. But ANY team that does it's homework can get a player in the first round. Sure, if you are looking for the next Larry Fitzgerald, you aren't very likely to find him in the draft. But my best estimates show that the difference between the value of the average first round pick and an unmittigated Rashaun Woods type bust with the same pick is roughly 4-5 wins over the life of the rookie contract.

It's not quite as bad if you just trade the pick away instead of use it on a bust, but still, the point is that a first round pick is significant.

For the Bears to get value on the Cutler trade, Cutler has to remain equally effective under Center for the Bears and healthy every week for the next five years (at his current production). Basically, the Bears vastly overpaid for his services, and need a hall of fame type career to win this deal. Nothing from Cutler's first three seasons suggests to me that he's capable of being a Manning/Brady type or winning multiple Super Bowls. If he ends up doing so, tip your cap to the Bears for a profitable gamble. He's certainly young enough to be that guy.[/quote]

You did alot of research but your definition of great player and mine are not the same. PFT did a writeup on it a while back and it was 50%. Your rankings seem to have very low expectations. Serviceable starter does not equal great player, or even "solid" in my opinion. Just looking at our team, Chris Samuels, Jon Jansen, and the late Sean Taylor are the only solid first round picks we've had in a long time. The book is still out on Rogers, Campbell and Landry. I know alot of people - myself included - like Rogers and Landry, but to date, they havent proved themselves worthy of the pick.

However, if we are to look at the whole point of this discussion - first round quarterbacks - you will find far more than 50% of first round qb picks fail to meet "franchise QB" qualification. If you want a franchise QB, two first round picks is not too much to give up. youre more likely to get a franchise QB trading two first round picks for a proven vet than you are taking your chances in the draft. Whether Cutler is a franchise QB or not is debatable...

Re: Somebody please try to convince me that the FO has a plan.
 

[quote=BigHairedAristocrat;543796]However, if we are to look at the whole point of this discussion - first round quarterbacks - you will find far more than 50% of first round qb picks fail to meet "franchise QB" qualification. If you want a franchise QB, two first round picks is not too much to give up. youre more likely to get a franchise QB trading two first round picks for a proven vet than you are taking your chances in the draft. Whether Cutler is a franchise QB or not is debatable...[/quote]Well, if we clearly define what we mean by franchise QB, it wouldn't be so debatable, we'd have an answer.

Sure, everyone's definition is going to be different, but yours does appear to be "what I think they can become", which isn't particularly helpful to me.

To me, any QB who has five accrued seasons and has started at least three full seasons (48 games) with either progressively improving results or steady-state results in completion percentage, yards per attempt, and TD/INT ratio is a franchise QB. Draft position matters in projections only. Once a guy has 5 full seasons and 48+ games as a starter, doesn't matter whether he was the first overall pick or undrafted.

For example: I don't refer to Ben Roethlisberger as a franchise QB because his production has been so unsteady. If he improves next year, he's definately a franchise QB. If he collapses and costs the Steelers a playoff birth, well then.

[U]Franchise QBs drafted 1st round in the past 10 years include[/U]:
Eli Manning
Philip Rivers
Carson Palmer
**David Carr
Chad Pennington
Donovan McNabb
Daunte Culpepper

**Carr techincally qualified by my definition in Houston, but he never played a game as a "franchise QB". He was outsed after his 5th year, which means he loses his title. Tim Couch was nearly the same deal, but his production was a lot more uneven than Carr's.

Essentially about one guy a year, in the first round only. Roethlisberger and Campbell are on the cusp. Cutler and Rogers are two years away, at current levels. Leinart, Quinn, Ryan, and Flacco all have plenty to prove, but should all get here one day.

[U]Franchise QBs drafted after the 1st round, last 10 years include[/U]:
Marc Bulger (6th)
Tom Brady (6th)
Drew Brees (2nd)


David Garrard is just two games away from qualifying, abscent another declining season. Matt Schaub is on pace, but needs to stay healthy for the next two years. Kyle Orton is one strong, full year as a starter away. Derek Anderson and Matt Cassel both are two strong years away. Tony Romo is a half season away.

Anyway, that's how I define franchise QB. Even though the 50% figure has historically held, even by my defintion, the franchise QB explosion is coming. Cutler is just one of the many.

Re: Somebody please try to convince me that the FO has a plan.
 

[quote=GTripp0012;543804]To me, any QB who has five accrued seasons and has started at least three full seasons (48 games) with either progressively improving results or steady-state results in completion percentage, yards per attempt, and TD/INT ratio is a franchise QB. Draft position matters in projections only. Once a guy has 5 full seasons and 48+ games as a starter, doesn't matter whether he was the first overall pick or undrafted.

For example: [B]I don't refer to Ben Roethlisberger as a franchise QB [/B]because his production has been so unsteady. If he improves next year, he's definately a franchise QB. If he collapses and costs the Steelers a playoff birth, well then..[/quote]

How many [B]World Championships [/B]would Ben Big need to win as the [B]leader[/B] of his team to overcome your statistical requirements for him to qualify as a Franchise QB?

I think you've gotten carried away by statistics. Big Ben is certainly a Franchise QB.

Re: Somebody please try to convince me that the FO has a plan.
 

[quote=Daniel Snyder;543757]Oh we have a plan. I have watched you Warpathers for ages now. I watched you spring for the earth like a budding tree. Different than your "ExtremeSkins" brethren, I enjoy you.

You tell me like it is. You love and hate me all at the same time.

I feel it is time to give back.

Ask away gentlemen, ask away.[/quote]

Why do you meddle so much?

When are you going to draft some damn linemen?

Will you invite me to watch the next Dallas game from the owner's box?

Could I have one of those cigars you smoke?

How about setting me up with a Redskins cheerleader?

May I call you by your first name?

Re: Somebody please try to convince me that the FO has a plan.
 

[quote=GTripp0012;543804]Well, if we clearly define what we mean by franchise QB, it wouldn't be so debatable, we'd have an answer.

Sure, everyone's definition is going to be different, but yours does appear to be "what I think they can become", which isn't particularly helpful to me.

To me, any QB who has five accrued seasons and has started at least three full seasons (48 games) with either progressively improving results or steady-state results in completion percentage, yards per attempt, and TD/INT ratio is a franchise QB. Draft position matters in projections only. Once a guy has 5 full seasons and 48+ games as a starter, doesn't matter whether he was the first overall pick or undrafted.

For example: I don't refer to Ben Roethlisberger as a franchise QB because his production has been so unsteady. If he improves next year, he's definately a franchise QB. If he collapses and costs the Steelers a playoff birth, well then.

[U]Franchise QBs drafted 1st round in the past 10 years include[/U]:
Eli Manning
Philip Rivers
Carson Palmer
**David Carr
Chad Pennington
Donovan McNabb
Daunte Culpepper

**Carr techincally qualified by my definition in Houston, but he never played a game as a "franchise QB". He was outsed after his 5th year, which means he loses his title. Tim Couch was nearly the same deal, but his production was a lot more uneven than Carr's.

Essentially about one guy a year, in the first round only. Roethlisberger and Campbell are on the cusp. Cutler and Rogers are two years away, at current levels. Leinart, Quinn, Ryan, and Flacco all have plenty to prove, but should all get here one day.

[U]Franchise QBs drafted after the 1st round, last 10 years include[/U]:
Marc Bulger (6th)
Tom Brady (6th)
Drew Brees (2nd)


David Garrard is just two games away from qualifying, abscent another declining season. Matt Schaub is on pace, but needs to stay healthy for the next two years. Kyle Orton is one strong, full year as a starter away. Derek Anderson and Matt Cassel both are two strong years away. Tony Romo is a half season away.

Anyway, that's how I define franchise QB. Even though the 50% figure has historically held, even by my defintion, the franchise QB explosion is coming. Cutler is just one of the many.[/quote]


I suppose the term franchise QB can be debateable, but i dont think just starting for three years and improving is enough. The guys you mentioned are about the only guys I can think of who qualify for the term. I suppose to be fair, we could add Mike Vick to the list, although he doesnt fit the typical mold of a QB. But just looking at your list of first rounders, you show that only SEVEN franchise QBs were drafted in the first round of the draft in the past 10 years. Assuming 32 first round picks in ten years, thats only 7 franchise QBs found in 320 picks. If we want to look at all the rounds, and we include the other guys you mentioned, its something like 15 franchise QBs found in 2560 picks (32 teams x 10years x 8 rounds - 7 rounds plus 32 comp picks).

As you would agree, finding a franchise QB is exceedingly hard. For that reason, two first rounders is not too much to give up for a franchise QB, in my opinion.

Re: Somebody please try to convince me that the FO has a plan.
 

[quote=GTripp0012;543804]Well, if we clearly define what we mean by franchise QB, it wouldn't be so debatable, we'd have an answer.

Sure, everyone's definition is going to be different, but yours does appear to be "what I think they can become", which isn't particularly helpful to me.

To me, any QB who has five accrued seasons and has started at least three full seasons (48 games) with either progressively improving results or steady-state results in completion percentage, yards per attempt, and TD/INT ratio is a franchise QB. Draft position matters in projections only. Once a guy has 5 full seasons and 48+ games as a starter, doesn't matter whether he was the first overall pick or undrafted.

[B]For example: I don't refer to Ben Roethlisberger as a franchise QB because his production has been so unsteady. If he improves next year, he's definately a franchise QB. [/B]If he collapses and costs the Steelers a playoff birth, well then.

[U]Franchise QBs drafted 1st round in the past 10 years include[/U]:
Eli Manning
Philip Rivers
Carson Palmer
**David Carr
Chad Pennington
Donovan McNabb
Daunte Culpepper

**Carr techincally qualified by my definition in Houston, but he never played a game as a "franchise QB". He was outsed after his 5th year, which means he loses his title. Tim Couch was nearly the same deal, but his production was a lot more uneven than Carr's.

Essentially about one guy a year, in the first round only. Roethlisberger and Campbell are on the cusp. Cutler and Rogers are two years away, at current levels. Leinart, Quinn, Ryan, and Flacco all have plenty to prove, but should all get here one day.

[U]Franchise QBs drafted after the 1st round, last 10 years include[/U]:
Marc Bulger (6th)
Tom Brady (6th)
Drew Brees (2nd)


David Garrard is just two games away from qualifying, abscent another declining season. Matt Schaub is on pace, but needs to stay healthy for the next two years. Kyle Orton is one strong, full year as a starter away. Derek Anderson and Matt Cassel both are two strong years away. Tony Romo is a half season away.

Anyway, that's how I define franchise QB. Even though the 50% figure has historically held, even by my defintion, the franchise QB explosion is coming. Cutler is just one of the many.[/quote]

LOL. Yeah right. For once chill out w/ all those stats. You simply can't judge Ben R. by QB rating, completion%, yards per attempt and TD Int rate. Ben R. is one of the best playmaking QB's in the NFL who has two rings and got his team to the AFC championship his rookie year. Pretty strong resume for a 5 year player. If I'm putting together a fantasy team Ben's not my first pick, but if I'm starting a real team he'd be pretty high on the list.

Re: Somebody please try to convince me that the FO has a plan.
 

[quote=skinsfan69;543875]LOL. Yeah right. For once chill out w/ all those stats. You simply can't judge Ben R. by QB rating, completion%, yards per attempt and TD Int rate. Ben R. is one of the best playmaking QB's in the NFL who has two rings and got his team to the AFC championship his rookie year. Pretty strong resume for a 5 year player. If I'm putting together a fantasy team Ben's not my first pick, but if I'm starting a real team he'd be pretty high on the list.[/quote]

Rothlisberger does not strike me as an ideal example (for various reasons - he actually did improve if you take out the motorcycle/appendix year; the "he's a winner" "analysis" ignores the tremendous run game and world class defense he has - i.e. he wouldn't be winning Super Bowls for the Redskins, etc - and actually that is exactly what Tripp says if you read his words) but the sort of subjective analysis represented above is the type of thinking that makes a team willing to trade Campbell, two 1sts, and a 3rd for Jay Cutler. While relying on statistics might lead you astray now and again, empirical data will more often than not lead you to better analysis. Hence GTripp brings stronger analysis on a consistent basis than most anyone else on this site.

Re: Somebody please try to convince me that the FO has a plan.
 

[quote=KI Skins Fan;543818]Why do you meddle so much?

When are you going to draft some damn linemen?

Will you invite me to watch the next Dallas game from the owner's box?

Could I have one of those cigars you smoke?

How about setting me up with a Redskins cheerleader?

May I call you by your first name?[/quote]

Lmao where was this when I was all blasted last night!?!

Re: Somebody please try to convince me that the FO has a plan.
 

[quote=skinsfan69;543875]LOL. Yeah right. For once chill out w/ all those stats. You simply can't judge Ben R. by QB rating, completion%, yards per attempt and TD Int rate. Ben R. is one of the best playmaking QB's in the NFL who has two rings and got his team to the AFC championship his rookie year. Pretty strong resume for a 5 year player. If I'm putting together a fantasy team Ben's not my first pick, but if I'm starting a real team he'd be pretty high on the list.[/quote]Okay, and my team kicks your team's ass. That's pretty simple. You load up with playmakers, and the team I'm building will be actually good. ;)

Re: Somebody please try to convince me that the FO has a plan.
 

[quote=SC Skins Fan;543878]Rothlisberger does not strike me as an ideal example (for various reasons - he actually did improve if you take out the motorcycle/appendix year; the "he's a winner" "analysis" ignores the tremendous run game and world class defense he has - i.e. he wouldn't be winning Super Bowls for the Redskins, etc - and actually that is exactly what Tripp says if you read his words) but the sort of subjective analysis represented above is the type of thinking that makes a team willing to trade Campbell, two 1sts, and a 3rd for Jay Cutler. While relying on statistics might lead you astray now and again, empirical data will more often than not lead you to better analysis. Hence GTripp brings stronger analysis on a consistent basis than most anyone else on this site.[/quote]

Well of course if you put Ben on our team he's not winning SB's. No kidding. But if you put Campbell on Pittsburgh are they winning 2 SB's? I don't think so. Even though Ben had a bad SB in 05 he played his ass off on the road in the playoff games that got them there. And of course what he did in this past SB is what gets you in the Hall of Fame. Bottom line is Ben gets in done when it matters most.

Both Campbell and Cutler had a similar QB rating. However who is the better QB? Cutler hands down.

Re: Somebody please try to convince me that the FO has a plan.
 

[quote=GTripp0012;543929]Okay, and my team kicks your team's ass. That's pretty simple. You load up with playmakers, and the team I'm building will be actually good. ;)[/quote]

You're missing my point. What I'm saying is you can't judge SOME players by a stat sheet, and Ben R. is one of those players. He's probably never going to put up stats like Manning, Brady or Brees but he can still be a very effective NFL QB. Do you agree with me? Yes or no?