NFL Comparables for 2010 Draft Prospects at Quarterback

[GTripp0012]

I ran a regression on the college statistics of players who figure to be considered in the first two or three rounds of the NFL Draft at the quarterback position. Factors I looked at included: career completion percentage, college victories, college starts, career value progression (i.e. did he improve in every year, or was he best as a sophomore), expected draft position (as not to have Pike and Bradford on the exact same scale), and career passing attempts.

The order of the comparables are somewhat arbitrary. I ran a bunch of two variable regressions, and then had to eyeball the closest to the line on two or three different graphs. Anyway, this is what I found in the purely statistical sense, so keep in mind that if Jimmy Clausen doesn't remind you of Byron Leftwich, it's not because I think they look exactly the same out there. Just that there are similarities in the draft profiles.

Jimmy Clausen
1. Matt Leinart
2. Jason Campbell
3. Byron Leftwich
4. Drew Brees
5. Aaron Rodgers
6. Matt Stafford
7. Ben Roethlisberger

Sam Bradford
1. Ben Roethlisberger
2. Matt Leinart
3. Rex Grossman
4. Brian Brohm
5. Jason Campbell
6. Matt Ryan
7. Aaron Rodgers

*--Interestingly, Sam Bradford and Jimmy Clausen are more similar to each other than they are to any of the comparables I listed for either, with the exception of Leinart for Clausen.

Jake Locker
1. Marques Tuiasosopo
2. Joey Harrington
3. Quincy Carter
4. Rex Grossman
5. Mark Sanchez
6. JaMarcus Russell
7. Drew Henson

Tony Pike
1. Charlie Batch
2. Joe Flacco
3. Drew Brees
4. Kellen Clemens
5. Matt Ryan
6. Mark Sanchez
7. Tom Brady

Tim Tebow
(he's kind of fascinating...a lot of these QBs have something in common that Tebow does not)
1. Daunte Culpepper
2. Pat White
3. Alex Smith
4. Troy Smith
5. Tim Couch
6. Kevin Kolb
7. David Carr

Colt McCoy
1. Chad Pennington
2. Philip Rivers
3. Drew Brees
4. Tim Couch
5. Brian Brohm
6. Vince Young
7. Chad Henne

Dan LeFevour
1. Jay Cutler
2. Brady Quinn
3. Donovan McNabb
4. Chad Pennington
5. Philip Rivers
6. Kevin Kolb
7. John Beck

[diehardskin2982]

if I picked based on that assessment, I'd go with Colt McCoy

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by diehardskin2982

if I picked based on that assessment, I'd go with Colt McCoy

As would I. McCoy has legitimate questions about his arm strength, but so did Pennington (and I didn't put Matt Schaub in the system, but he had the same arm issues), and he (they) turned out alright.

If he's there in the second, he's a major steal.

[Big C]

not sold on mccoy becoming a good pro. clausen is the guy id want hands down if we had to go qb

[GTripp0012]

The other interesting thing is that you can see system players in the comparables: Alex Smith's numbers look a lot like Tebow's numbers, and Vince Young had a season (2005) just like Colt McCoy's 2009. IMO, it's good that this system reflects the similarities in the numbers between guys who played in the same system.

It also suggests that Jimmy Clausen and Brady Quinn are very, very different players. I still think Quinn is bound to be the better pro, if he ever can get free of Cleveland, but Clausen comes with a degree of accuracy that Quinn didn't have. I just don't think Clausen will ever have the patience to be a Manning/Brady/Rivers/Pennington type, who will take what the defense gives him, but that Brees comparable is the best case scenario.

[KLHJ2]

Dan LeFevour is most appealing to these eyes.

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by Angry

Dan LeFevour is most appealing to these eyes.

I should point out that with the LeFevour input, I used his completion percentage in the 12 games he started in his career against BCS conference opponents: 57.4%, as opposed to his career percentage of 66.7% in the MAC. Crediting him for the full array of experience, he's right up there with that group of solid first rounders who rarely get intercepted, but have minor accuracy issues.

Lower down his list are the guys who posted ridiculous numbers against inferior competition.

[BigHairedAristocrat]

Based on that assessment, i'd stick with Campbell and, if necessary, draft a QB in 2011.

I'd much rather have Suh than take a chance on any of those guys. I'm just not that impressed.

On a side-note, i was surprised Tebow was not compared to Vince Young. It seems that most OC's would try to use them similarly in the NFL.

[GTripp0012]

Sorted by College Victories:

1. McCoy 45
2. Tebow 34
3. LeFevour 33
4. Bradford 24
5. Clausen 16
6. Pike 16
7. Locker 7

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by BigHairedAristocrat

Based on that assessment, i'd stick with Campbell and, if necessary, draft a QB in 2011.

I'd much rather have Suh than take a chance on any of those guys. I'm just not that impressed.

On a side-note, i was surprised Tebow was not compared to Vince Young. It seems that most OC's would try to use them similarly in the NFL.

That's another similarity for Tebow, actually. The biggest difference was that Young was more efficient on a play-by-play basis in college than Tebow was, but Tebow's accuracy numbers were more steady. I could have easily used Young instead of Carr as the seventh comparable, and actually, probably should have.

[CRedskinsRule]

Originally Posted by GTripp0012

Sorted by College Victories:

1. McCoy 45
2. Tebow 34
3. LeFevour 33
4. Bradford 24
5. Clausen 16
6. Pike 16
7. Locker 7

not really a follower of college, so GTripp could you put games played next to that, or the winning percentage?

Thanks

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by CRedskinsRule

not really a follower of college, so GTripp could you put games played next to that, or the winning percentage?

Thanks

^^^College Victories/College Starts

[CRedskinsRule]

Thx, I figured Locker had a low number of starts that's really why I asked. That is an awful winning percentage though.

[FRPLG]

I'm a bigger fan of McCoy. Ulitmately though I think the quality of a QB is so tied into the system and players around him it doesn't much matter. Outside of Manning/Brady/Brees it's hard to see any QB currently in the league going to a bad offense and performing well. I still think with a rebuilt line JC can win us 10-12 games a year from and offensive stand point. But here are probably a dozen other QBs who could also.

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by CRedskinsRule

Thx, I figured Locker had a low number of starts that's really why I asked. That is an awful winning percentage though.

Yeah. What shocks me with Locker is that with all of the hub-bub about Tebow being asked to play a new position, it's kind of crazy that Locker is behind mentioned as a first rounder. If they both came out this year, there's less than a 1% chance that Locker would make a better professional quarterback than Tebow. But he's definately athletic enough to play safety, or tight end, or fullback at the next level, in fact, he actually played some safety at Washington while also playing at quarterback.

I can't imagine that quarterback would be his best position at the next level, but he might as well go back for another year if he's going to try it. Personally, I don't think Sarkisian is going to let him walk after a 5-7 junior season, he will convince him to stay.