2024 Early Bird Draft Thread

[mredskins]

Originally Posted by mooby

I wanna expand on this line Quake so bear with me. Let's look at all the Super Bowl winning qb's since the year 1999 (which can be argued is a turning point in modernizing passing offenses).

99 - Kurt Warner (HOFer, undrafted, original team)
00 - Trent Dilfer (backup, HOF defense, 1st round, 2nd team)
01 - Tom Brady (GOAT, 6th round, original team)
02 - Brad Johnson (solid, HOF defense, 9th round, 3rd team)
03- Tom Brady (GOAT, 6th round, original team)
04 - Tom Brady (GOAT, 6th round, original team)
05 - Ben Roethlisberger (above average, great defense, 1st round, original team)
06 - P. Manning (HOFer, 1st overall, original team)
07 - E. Manning (average qb, clutch, great defense, 1st round, original team)
08 - Ben Roethlisberger (above average, great defense, 1st round, original team)
09 - Drew Brees (HOFer, 2nd round, 2nd team)
10 - Aaron Rodgers (HOFer, 1st round, original team)
11 - E. Manning (average qb, clutch, great defense,1st round, original team)
12 - Joe Flacco (above average, clutch, good defense, 1st round, original team)
13 - Russell Wilson (elite qb, good defense, 3rd round, original team)
14 - Tom Brady (GOAT, 6th round, original team)
15 - P. Manning (HOFer, 1st overall, 2nd team)
16 - Tom Brady (GOAT, 6th round, original team)
17 - Nick Foles (backup qb, clutch, 3rd round, original team)
18 - Tom Brady (GOAT, 6th round, original team)
19 - P. Mahomes (HOFer, 11th overall, original team)
20 - Tom Brady (GOAT, 6th round, 2nd team)
21 - Matt Stafford (elite, good defense, 1st overall, 2nd team)
22 - P. Mahomes (HOFer, 11th overall, original team)
23 - P. Mahomes (HOFer, 11th overall, original team)

Let's remove Brady from the equation because he's the GOAT and an anomaly - the odds of another qb winning 7 titles is slim because Brady took care of himself/seeking every competitive edge well into his 40's). The odds of drafting the next Brady are incredibly slim (as of 2021 there were 721 qb's who played in the NFL and Brady is 1 of 721, meaning you have a roughly 0.13% odds of finding the next Brady).

Highlights - With Brady out Mahomes is 2nd in line to the throne with 3 titles. He was drafted 11th overall. Out of the 25 year sample size (remove 7 for Brady) the other 18 years 11 of those titles came from 1st round qb's still with their original team.

Let's expand on that a bit. How many teams won titles with a qb they drafted in the 1st round? Of those 18 non-Brady years, 11 titles were won by teams with original drafted qb's in the first round (Both Manning brothers - 3 titles, Mahomes - 3 titles, Roethlisberger - 2 titles, Flacco/Wilson/Rodgers - 1 title ea). So that's a roughly 60% chance of winning a title with the qb you drafted in the first round. Good odds, but not overwhelming. Obviously you need a solid to great defense and some playmakers who can perform in clutch moments.

Looking at this from another angle in the last 6 years Nick Foles was the only non-first round qb to win a title. Stafford was on his 2nd team but they paid a premium for him. Mahomes and Brady are the other winners.

Yet another angle: 19 out of 25 years a qb won the SB with their original team. Remove Brady from the equation and it drops to 12/18.

Just to summarize - qb is one of those positions you gotta keep swinging at. I wasn't a fan of this approach but if you don't have a good qb you are wasting seasons in this league. If you know your guy isn't the guy you gotta keep swinging until you find the guy. I believe Daniels or Maye will be the choice and we'll also take a developmental guy at the end of the draft. The odds of you winning a SB with some other guy's QB are slimmer than finding the guy, whether that be in the first round or otherwise. But if you are gonna win with a qb that wasn't drafted in the first round he better have an amazing complimentary defense.

first round definitely makes a difference but what is interesting how many of the 23 you listed were or were not the darlings of their draft class say in the top 3 or 5 picks; basically who the media drooled over before the draft like (JD CW and DM)

Mahomes and Josh Allen definitely were not debated before their drafts as the next great things

I also say SB wins probably isn't the absolute measuring stick of QB success; I be very happy with Josh Allen or i suppose Lamar right now and competing for a chance at a SB ring

[mooby]

Originally Posted by mredskins

I can draft 5 great QBs but if i have no OL then they are useless; its absolutely about drafting folks who can succeed in the NFL in the positions you need help in thus filling holes in your roster

by your methodology with the number two pick we should pick Harrison Jr; he probably has the highest percent of potential success in the nfl but it sure look silly picking him with our current WRs and QBs on the roster and you have 2 out of 3 high ranked QBs still on the board

i guess it have to come down to who is on the board in late rounds; if there is a OL guy who can help us this year i take him over a developmental QB project

how many teams draft multiply QBs in the same draft? very few off the top of my head

This is where your scouting comes in. If our scouting and Peters ranked them like this:

Williams - worthy of the first overall pick
Harrison Jr - top five pick
Maye/Daniels - 1st round grade but not top 5

Then yes their options would be draft the guy they like (Harrison Jr) or trade down and hope they can grab the guy they want later (assuming they don't have top five grades on Maye/Daniels). Because QB is head and shoulders the most important position it's more likely they would draft down if Williams wasn't available. But that all depends on their draft grades.

My draft grades (which mean absolute jack shit because I only watch college football highlights) - I like Maye/Daniels. But that doesn't mean they do. I just watch draft analysis from other people and according to people in the know Daniels is the better prospect but his weight is a red flag. Maye is better physically but his arm talent isn't as good as Daniels. So the question is do they draft the guy with the physical attributes or do they draft the good football player with red flags phsyically? Both have question marks.

Back end of the draft is less critical - you have no idea who's available until the clock is running so just draft the guy you like.

Just to add - Ron's fatal flaw was his staff and scouting. If they had done their jobs right they would've realized Haskins was a wasted pick and drafted Herbert instead of CY. That decision set the franchise back 4 years. If they drafted Herbert and developed him we could still be looking at Snyder ownership and Rivera HC'ing. Instead they fucked it up so bad everyone involved is gone and we have Harris/Peters running the show . Snyder pulling strings and drafting Haskins set this entire thing in motion.

[mredskins]

mooby i think we are on the same page and written text vs. us chatting about this in bar is muddying the waters

i get where you are coming from and agree

[KI Skins Fan]

Originally Posted by mooby

This is where your scouting comes in. If our scouting and Peters ranked them like this:

Williams - worthy of the first overall pick
Harrison Jr - top five pick
Maye/Daniels - 1st round grade but not top 5

Then yes their options would be draft the guy they like (Harrison Jr) or trade down and hope they can grab the guy they want later (assuming they don't have top five grades on Maye/Daniels). Because QB is head and shoulders the most important position it's more likely they would draft down if Williams wasn't available. But that all depends on their draft grades.

My draft grades (which mean absolute jack shit because I only watch college football highlights) - I like Maye/Daniels. But that doesn't mean they do. I just watch draft analysis from other people and according to people in the know Daniels is the better prospect but his weight is a red flag. Maye is better physically but his arm talent isn't as good as Daniels. So the question is do they draft the guy with the physical attributes or do they draft the good football player with red flags phsyically? Both have question marks.

Back end of the draft is less critical - you have no idea who's available until the clock is running so just draft the guy you like.

Just to add - Ron's fatal flaw was his staff and scouting. If they had done their jobs right they would've realized Haskins was a wasted pick and drafted Herbert instead of CY. That decision set the franchise back 4 years. If they drafted Herbert and developed him we could still be looking at Snyder ownership and Rivera HC'ing. Instead they fucked it up so bad everyone involved is gone and we have Harris/Peters running the show . Snyder pulling strings and drafting Haskins set this entire thing in motion.

Ron Rivera was incompetent. He made Joe Biden look sharp in comparison. For goodness sakes, he was even totally clueless about using time outs and when to throw the challenge flag. Half the time, when he finally realized he should throw the red flag he forgot where he had put it. So how was he supposed to manage a draft? Not that Snyder would have allowed Rivera or anyone other than himself to pick a QB.

[mooby]

Originally Posted by KI Skins Fan

Ron Rivera was incompetent. He made Joe Biden look sharp in comparison. For goodness sakes, he was even totally clueless about using time outs and when to throw the challenge flag. Half the time, when he finally realized he should throw the red flag he forgot where he had put it. So how was he supposed to manage a draft? Not that Snyder would have allowed Rivera or anyone other than himself to pick a QB.

To be fair he did have cancer his first year. Unless anyone here has dealt with it it's hard to say how it affected him personally.

I think Ron is a respectable person, just a bad coach. I'm hard pressed to believe anyone would have success here no matter how good they were - Snyder picked every type of coach you can pick and every single one failed. That's his lasting legacy.

[sdskinsfan2001]

2. Jayden Daniels QB LSU
36. Kamari Lassiter CB Georgia
40. Jordan Morgan OT Arizona
67. Ben Sinnott TE Kansas State
78. Cedric Gray LB North Carolina
100. Kiran Amegadjie OT Yale
139. Isaiah Adams OG Illinois
152. Kitan Oladapo S Oregon State
222. Joshua Cephus WR UTSA

I could definitely get down w/ this draft.

[CRedskinsRule]

They have started to announce top 30 Pro Day visits. What I've seen so far :

OT Jordan Morgan
QB JJ McCarthy
OT Kiran Amegadjie

Sent from my SM-G781U using Tapatalk

[jamf]

Originally Posted by mooby

99 - Kurt Warner (HOFer, undrafted, original team)
00 - Trent Dilfer (backup, HOF defense, 1st round, 2nd team)
01 - Tom Brady (GOAT, 6th round, original team)
02 - Brad Johnson (solid, HOF defense, 9th round, 3rd team)
03- Tom Brady (GOAT, 6th round, original team)
04 - Tom Brady (GOAT, 6th round, original team)
05 - Ben Roethlisberger (above average, great defense, 1st round, original team)
06 - P. Manning (HOFer, 1st overall, original team)
07 - E. Manning (average qb, clutch, great defense, 1st round, original team)
08 - Ben Roethlisberger (above average, great defense, 1st round, original team)
09 - Drew Brees (HOFer, 2nd round, 2nd team)
10 - Aaron Rodgers (HOFer, 1st round, original team)
11 - E. Manning (average qb, clutch, great defense,1st round, original team)
12 - Joe Flacco (above average, clutch, good defense, 1st round, original team)
13 - Russell Wilson (elite qb, good defense, 3rd round, original team)
14 - Tom Brady (GOAT, 6th round, original team)
15 - P. Manning (HOFer, 1st overall, 2nd team)
16 - Tom Brady (GOAT, 6th round, original team)
17 - Nick Foles (backup qb, clutch, 3rd round, original team)
18 - Tom Brady (GOAT, 6th round, original team)
19 - P. Mahomes (HOFer, 11th overall, original team)
20 - Tom Brady (GOAT, 6th round, 2nd team)
21 - Matt Stafford (elite, good defense, 1st overall, 2nd team)
22 - P. Mahomes (HOFer, 11th overall, original team)
23 - P. Mahomes (HOFer, 11th overall, original team)

Fuck Yeah Moobs!
Another thing I want to point out, Mahomes was the only first round pick on the Chiefs starting Offense in the SB.
Purdy had several 1st round picks and 2 or 3 HOF'ers.
I don't think the chiefs win the SB with another QB. Niners would've won with Stafford or 5 other QBs (Healthy)

One more thing to add, ProBowl QBs:
Tua, Lamar, Patrick, Brock, Stafford, and Dakota Rayne.
Stafford is the only classic drop back QB. The game has evolved away from two TE sets and a blocking fullback. Big lumbering Carson Wentz style QBs are a thing of the past unless they have Manning/Brady football IQ.

BTW, my QB rankings
CW
JD
McCarthy
Howell 2.0 (Maye)
Greg Oden 2.0 (Penix)

Penix would've been a top 5 pick if he wasn't as fragile as Greg Oden.

[punch it in]

Originally Posted by CRedskinsRule

They have started to announce top 30 Pro Day visits. What I've seen so far :

OT Jordan Morgan
QB JJ McCarthy
OT Kiran Amegadjie

Sent from my SM-G781U using Tapatalk

Serious consideration.
Due diligence. Nothing more.
Serious consideration.

[punch it in]

Originally Posted by KI Skins Fan

Ron Rivera was incompetent. He made Joe Biden look sharp in comparison. For goodness sakes, he was even totally clueless about using time outs and when to throw the challenge flag. Half the time, when he finally realized he should throw the red flag he forgot where he had put it. So how was he supposed to manage a draft? Not that Snyder would have allowed Rivera or anyone other than himself to pick a QB.

If you’re gonna talk about politicians with deranged and delusional minds can we keep it honest and talk about the other guy.

Also there is no mention of politicians in any football related thread.

[punch it in]

Ron Rivera was a loser for 80 percent of the seasons he was a HC. Enough about laying the blame elsewhere. He was an awful HC and a worse talent scout. He absolutely decimated this roster in the four years he was here.

[CRedskinsRule]

Originally Posted by punch it in

Serious consideration.
Due diligence. Nothing more.
Serious consideration.

more interested in the tackles.

Sent from my SM-G781U using Tapatalk

[skinsfan69]

Originally Posted by punch it in

If you’re gonna talk about politicians with deranged and delusional minds can we keep it honest and talk about the other guy.

Also there is no mention of politicians in any football related thread.

Beat me to it.

[skinsfan69]

Originally Posted by sdskinsfan2001

2. Jayden Daniels QB LSU
36. Kamari Lassiter CB Georgia
40. Jordan Morgan OT Arizona
67. Ben Sinnott TE Kansas State
78. Cedric Gray LB North Carolina
100. Kiran Amegadjie OT Yale
139. Isaiah Adams OG Illinois
152. Kitan Oladapo S Oregon State
222. Joshua Cephus WR UTSA

I could definitely get down w/ this draft.

Like it but don't love it. Put in Trotter Jr somewhere and I love it.

[Ruhskins]

Originally Posted by punch it in

Ron Rivera was a loser for 80 percent of the seasons he was a HC. Enough about laying the blame elsewhere. He was an awful HC and a worse talent scout. He absolutely decimated this roster in the four years he was here.

Why not? Snyder saddled the team with Haskins and Wentz and started to gut the team for money, which is likely the reason the team became so cheap in FA spending in the last couple of years in free agency.

Yes Ron was bad as a coach and TERRIBLE as a GM, but Snyder basically brought him to be a distraction, while he continued to burn this team into the ground.