Another Vinny Special: Deangelo Hall

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by Paintrain

But Rogers is far from a shutdown corner. He's good, no doubt, but until last season he got toasted pretty consistently for big plays. His swagger always far exceeded his production.

He's got more excuses than interceptions. His latest: Cornerback DeAngelo Hall(notes) confessed to having a subpar outing, and Rogers—who couldn’t get a grip on one that could have changed the game’s tone on the Giants’ first possession.

“I thought I had a shot at it, but I was facing that sun and that glare,” Rogers said. So the sun was in your eyes but you got two hands on it and dropped it. Again. Interesting.

I think we can agree that for most of their respective careers that Hall has been on #1 WR and Rogers has been on #2 WR so you'd think the 1's are more apt to have deeper routes so that would make sense to have a higher YPA against.

I don't how you call a CB with 23 INT in 6 years not a playmaker but make excuses for one with 6 INT in 5 years. Who cares if he's the opportunistic type if he takes advantage of the opportunities. Rogers clearly does not.

Well, like I said, there's really no debate between them. You asserted that Hall was just as good of a cover guy as Rogers, but obviously that's not the case. I just gave you one number to support that, but theres 5-7 more I could dig through my records to find. It's not necessary though, we both know who the Giants were avoiding yesterday.

Where there's a lot more gray area is: how valuable are Hall's interceptions, given the fact that he's the target of most gameplan's by opponents over the last three seasons. If teams are trying to live off passes at Hall's receiver, regardless of who he is covering, there should be a reasonable expectations for INTs regardless of how adept the player is at creating oppertunities. And you'd expect a player like Hall to intercept more passes than a player like Rogers, talent aside.

But ~4.5 INTs/season is a lot more than ~1.7 INTs/season. The question is, how much more valuable given the context? And I don't have a really great mathmatical answer for this, but I suspect, given all the extra throws at a player like Hall, probably not very much. I'm open to other interpretations though.

[CRedskinsRule]

I didn't see the Philly game, but my understanding is Jackson was behind him wide open, and just missed the ball.


as for the rest if I had one play, one game, and I had to choose between Carlos and DHall to defend a TD pass, I would choose Carlos every time.

[GTripp0012]

There's also a lot of evidence to suggests that defenses can't do anything to create interception opportunities, and that they always regress to the mean every year. In this case, this would suggest the difference in INTs between Rogers and Hall are entirely circumstantial.

Of course, Rogers still obviously drops a higher percentage of his INTs, that's not at all in dispute. But how many of Hall's INTs are of the variety from Sunday: only there for the taking because it was thrown at a receiver he was lined up against, and someone else made the play?

[Paintrain]

Originally Posted by GTripp0012

Well, like I said, there's really no debate between them. You asserted that Hall was just as good of a cover guy as Rogers, but obviously that's not the case. I just gave you one number to support that, but theres 5-7 more I could dig through my records to find. It's not necessary though, we both know who the Giants were avoiding yesterday.

Where there's a lot more gray area is: how valuable are Hall's interceptions, given the fact that he's the target of most gameplan's by opponents over the last three seasons. If teams are trying to live off passes at Hall's receiver, regardless of who he is covering, there should be a reasonable expectations for INTs regardless of how adept the player is at creating oppertunities. And you'd expect a player like Hall to intercept more passes than a player like Rogers, talent aside.

But ~4.5 INTs/season is a lot more than ~1.7 INTs/season. The question is, how much more valuable given the context? And I don't have a really great mathmatical answer for this, but I suspect, given all the extra throws at a player like Hall, probably not very much. I'm open to other interpretations though.

Maybe he's not "as good" (although I've never been a huge Rogers fan) I don't think the disparity is as wide as you portray in their coverage abilities. Opportunities are opportunities. Teams threw at Deion and Darrell Green until they gave them reasons not to in the way of interceptions. Ignoring the positive impact that interceptions can have is kinda silly. You're way smarter than that.

I don't have the statistical capabilities to show how many of Hall's INT led to points vs. the number of dropped Roger INT led to opponents points but obviously it would tilt towards Hall.

[The Goat]

Originally Posted by SmootSmack

Definitely agree with that. And we need Hall on our defense because he seems to be our only threat to make a play (talking about the D Backs specifically). For all his faults, I have faith that he'll get an interception every time I see him out on defense. Rogers, on the other hand, who I think is a very efficient DB is never a threat to get an INT. And we need turnovers. So if Rogers can lock down one side and Hall can get me the INTs on the other side, I'm fine with that.

Springs could do both, but it's not 2004 anymore.

Perfecto!!!

[Paintrain]

Originally Posted by GTripp0012

There's also a lot of evidence to suggests that defenses can't do anything to create interception opportunities, and that they always regress to the mean every year. In this case, this would suggest the difference in INTs between Rogers and Hall are entirely circumstantial.

Of course, Rogers still obviously drops a higher percentage of his INTs, that's not at all in dispute. But how many of Hall's INTs are of the variety from Sunday: only there for the taking because it was thrown at a receiver he was lined up against, and someone else made the play?

I don't think it really matters. Ball+hands=catch. Who cares if it was tipped at the line, a blown route or a great break by the corner? Make the play.

[CRedskinsRule]

Here's my thinking, if JCutler were throwing int's into the hands of Hall - you know he likes to throw them right into the DB's hands - Hall would catch 4 out of 4 last night, Rogers would have to catch one of those beauties wouldn't he?

:P its a new week, new opponent, who IS the Rams qb anyway?

[Paintrain]

Originally Posted by CRedskinsRule

I didn't see the Philly game, but my understanding is Jackson was behind him wide open, and just missed the ball.


as for the rest if I had one play, one game, and I had to choose between Carlos and DHall to defend a TD pass, I would choose Carlos every time.

So now we're dinging for 'almost' TD? How does that show in the paper? So in 7 games as a Redskin he almost got beat for one TD. He's GARBAGE!!

Would there be as much D. Hall hate if he grew up in Sedona, AZ and went to Central Michigan? I really doubt it.

[CRedskinsRule]

Originally Posted by Paintrain

So now we're dinging for 'almost' TD? How does that show i the paper? So in 7 games as a Redskin he almost got beat for one TD. He's GARBAGE!!

Would there be as much D. Hall hate if he grew up in Sedona, AZ and went to Central Michigan? I really doubt it.

Man you've got me wrong, I like the excitement DHall brings, I just think he can get beat a bit more often. Hands down he gives us a better shot at the interceptions from the pressure we hope to get.

As to where he grew up or went to, hell I could not tell you that for any of the skins, except maybe Orakpo, so what is that all about?

[Paintrain]

Originally Posted by CRedskinsRule

Man you've got me wrong, I like the excitement DHall brings, I just think he can get beat a bit more often. Hands down he gives us a better shot at the interceptions from the pressure we hope to get.

As to where he grew up or went to, hell I could not tell you that for any of the skins, except maybe Orakpo, so what is that all about?

Just seems that since he was a local kid (and for the record I don't, nor never have lived in or near the DC area) some people are universally for or against him no matter what he does. Call it the Marcus Mason syndrome, lol.

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by Paintrain

Maybe he's not "as good" (although I've never been a huge Rogers fan) I don't think the disparity is as wide as you portray in their coverage abilities. Opportunities are opportunities. Teams threw at Deion and Darrell Green until they gave them reasons not to in the way of interceptions. Ignoring the positive impact that interceptions can have is kinda silly. You're way smarter than that.

I don't have the statistical capabilities to show how many of Hall's INT led to points vs. the number of dropped Roger INT led to opponents points but obviously it would tilt towards Hall.

Well, I'm not ignoring the positive impact. I'm just suggesting that I have some reason to believe that it's a small impact.

I can make some quick assumptions based on expected points. But, while this is based on information from expected point studies, none of this is at all scientific.

It's generally believed that:

30 expected points = 1 win
average INT = 3 ex. points (more or less depending on field position)
20 yards of field position = 1 ex. point (this is not linear, every yard is worth more closer to either end zone)

Assuming the above, Hall's INTs are worth 8 points per year more than Rogers INTs. That's about 1/3 of a win. But we also have to determine what % of that difference is purely circumstantial. And I think that would be at least half, though, there's no way I could prove that since I'm guessing. If I'm right though, we're talking about 4 total points difference between Hall and a second Rogers.

In my opinion, when you compare that to the 30-35 expected points (90-100 plays compared to 3-5 interceptions) that Hall will allow on completions that Rogers won't in any given year, it just seems really, really insignificant. But I could be looking at this completely wrong, not to mention that my estimations are fuzzy.

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by CRedskinsRule

I think you are being a little loose with stats on this one Tripp, of course I don't have any better. Hall's best talent is his opportunistic INTS, I think he has played in 5 games for us, and has at least 3 INTs. Carlos had a ball hit in stride and in his hands and he dropped it. That said I would rather have 2 Carlos' then 2 Halls any game of the year. Carlos will not get beat (I haven't seen it in the last year). Hall will give up a lot of plays. I just wish Carlos had better hands, but I imagine having bad hands forced him to play his position better to stay ahead of those flashy guys that get INTs

Well, just last year, I charted Rogers with 3 dropped INTs in 6 attempts (he's the new 50-50!), and charted Hall with 2 dropped INTs in 4 attempts. And no, I don't have any numbers prior to last season, so I had to adjust subjectively.

But more importantly, what is it saying that Hall plays 7 games here, and had 4 INT attempts, while Rogers plays 16 games, with only 6 INTs. Consider: Rogers was 2nd in all of football with 24 passes defended. Certainly, he's getting to the ball. No, I think it says more about where the ball is going.

[GTripp0012]

I think you could also make an argument that Hall is simply better at returning INTs than Rogers is, and you could probably support it, but I don't even want to try to quantify that.

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by SmootSmack

Definitely agree with that. And we need Hall on our defense because he seems to be our only threat to make a play (talking about the D Backs specifically). For all his faults, I have faith that he'll get an interception every time I see him out on defense. Rogers, on the other hand, who I think is a very efficient DB is never a threat to get an INT. And we need turnovers. So if Rogers can lock down one side and Hall can get me the INTs on the other side, I'm fine with that.

Springs could do both, but it's not 2004 anymore.

Problem with this SS, is that Al Davis already gambled eight figures on this, and decided after 8 games that he couldn't take it anymore.

And Hall did pick off three passes as a Raider. He just cost them way, way more than that.

We do need the big plays from somewhere though. I prefer Orakpo and Haynesworth (and Carter).

[70Chip]

Originally Posted by Ruhskins

Very creative thread, just as creative and as effective as our offensive playcalling against the Giants.

It's already bad enough we have to suffer through a bad game (since you know they do happen), but then we have to come here to these wonderful threads.

You don't have to anything. Except, well nevermind.