2024 Early Bird Draft Thread

[rocnrik]

Originally Posted by sdskinsfan2001

This post is depressing as fuck.

this team for 23 years has been depressing .. i refuse to buy into that a roster of 50 plus pro athletes all rides on one Rookie QB .. that's depressing! If you have the right system and a very good roster you don't need Mahomes .. what's depressing is thinking ONE guy alone will make or break it .. it takes the Entire team and staff/system ... I'll prove my point . IF Caleb Williams or Maye or Daniels are the answer then why didn't any of them win the National Championship?? WHO WON THAT??? ..

[sdskinsfan2001]

Originally Posted by rocnrik

this team for 23 years has been depressing .. i refuse to buy into that a roster of 50 plus pro athletes all rides on one Rookie QB .. that's depressing! If you have the right system and a very good roster you don't need Mahomes .. what's depressing is thinking ONE guy alone will make or break it .. it takes the Entire team and staff/system ... I'll prove my point . IF Caleb Williams or Maye or Daniels are the answer then why didn't any of them win the National Championship?? WHO WON THAT??? ..

Out of the last 10 super bowl winning teams, 9 of them had hall of fame or future guaranteed HOF QBs. The one outlier was Foles.

You need a really good fucking QB to win a Super Bowl, unless you want to hedge your chances on a unicorn like hot streak Foles went on. Who then immediately faded back into obscurity.

Your super bowl chances are absolutely attached to your QB, regardless of experience.

[CRedskinsRule]

Originally Posted by sdskinsfan2001

Out of the last 10 super bowl winning teams, 9 of them had hall of fame or future guaranteed HOF QBs. The one outlier was Foles.



You need a really good fucking QB to win a Super Bowl, unless you want to hedge your chances on a unicorn like hot streak Foles went on. Who then immediately faded back into obscurity.



Your super bowl chances are absolutely attached to your QB, regardless of experience.

Not only that, but the front office is doing a hell of a job laying a foundation for whichever QB they bring in.

You don't build a team by bringing in All-Star after All-Star. You build by bringing in players that know your system or you trust can learn your system and you build from the bottom up. This front office had a huge luxury with cap space lots of draft picks and a top tier of draft number two pick In a quarterback strong draft. I am happy to be optimistic and accepting whatever this front office does.

It's a breath of fresh air from the past 20 years.

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[rocnrik]

Originally Posted by CRedskinsRule

Not only that, but the front office is doing a hell of a job laying a foundation for whichever QB they bring in.

You don't build a team by bringing in All-Star after All-Star. You build by bringing in players that know your system or you trust can learn your system and you build from the bottom up. This front office had a huge luxury with cap space lots of draft picks and a top tier of draft number two pick In a quarterback strong draft. I am happy to be optimistic and accepting whatever this front office does.

It's a breath of fresh air from the past 20 years.

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Bingo .. you need players that FIT the system ..strong Leadership is a must!! some of you can look at it through rose colored glasses all you want and not want to deal with the depressing reality that nearly 50% of Top QB fail !! that is all i pointed out . FACTS ! So if following Facts and history bothers you then by all means believe what you will ..I have watched This team when Sonny was under center .You know how many QB's we have had since then ? We won super bowls with Doug Williams,JoeTheisman,Mark Rypien .. we had a Dominant D and Oline with world class coaching ! that's what i'm waiting for !!! It's won in the trenches and the coach and system !!

[skinsfan69]

Originally Posted by EARTHQUAKE2689

I did, and Rattler just isn't that good. Could he shock everyone and turn into something? Sure anyone could but Im not betting any money on him that he does

He has talent and has shown he can play. Is he an NFL starter? I would not draft him to be one. All I said was I would draft and develop him as a mid rounder.

I have always said that you need 3 QB's. I hope Peters drafts a guy late, you never know how things are going to turn out once these guys get to the next level. Plus Mariota is hot garbage.

[EARTHQUAKE2689]

Originally Posted by sdskinsfan2001

I'm definitely more negative here than I am in real life. But yeah, I don't get the need to be negative about what we've all been waiting for, for a long time. We haven't picked anyone yet and he hasn't played a down. I mean, it's time to be positive, even just for sanity's sake.

https://youtube.com/watch?v=Qv3l4q1g3Z8

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i88BHk2C_y4


Arm strength looks good to me

[That Guy]

Originally Posted by rocnrik

Bingo .. you need players that FIT the system ..strong Leadership is a must!! some of you can look at it through rose colored glasses all you want and not want to deal with the depressing reality that nearly 50% of Top QB fail !! that is all i pointed out . FACTS ! So if following Facts and history bothers you then by all means believe what you will ..I have watched This team when Sonny was under center .You know how many QB's we have had since then ? We won super bowls with Doug Williams,JoeTheisman,Mark Rypien .. we had a Dominant D and Oline with world class coaching ! that's what i'm waiting for !!! It's won in the trenches and the coach and system !!

that was before free agency, before the money exploded, and back when defenses were allowed to hit people. It's a completely different league now.

[CRedskinsRule]

Originally Posted by That Guy

that was before free agency, before the money exploded, and back when defenses were allowed to hit people. It's a completely different league now.

exactly.

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[Darrell Green Fan]

Originally Posted by rocnrik

this team for 23 years has been depressing .. i refuse to buy into that a roster of 50 plus pro athletes all rides on one Rookie QB .. that's depressing! If you have the right system and a very good roster you don't need Mahomes .. what's depressing is thinking ONE guy alone will make or break it .. it takes the Entire team and staff/system ... I'll prove my point . IF Caleb Williams or Maye or Daniels are the answer then why didn't any of them win the National Championship?? WHO WON THAT??? ..

Cincy went from the top pick to the Super Bowl in 2 years, it only took Houston one to go from the 2nd pick to the playoffs. Sure there were other players involved but if you can't see how having a franchise QB totally changes your fortunes, or how Patrick Mahomes is the reason the Chiefs are the Chiefs, I have no idea what game you are watching.

[Darrell Green Fan]

Originally Posted by EARTHQUAKE2689

I am confused by some of the people here, all we heard before this college season is that this is one of the strongest QB classes in years especially at the top, were in position to draft one without having to give anything up and people are backpedaling better than Revis in 2009.

Since 2000 theres only been 5 SBs that didnt involve a first round pick at QB at all, and 4 of those 5 involved Tom Brady, the one that didn't 2002.

We have six picks in the top 100 (Then 2 more in the next 55) and have made very smart FA moves and we have players Allen, Payne, McLaurin, and Cosmi that weve seen play at a high to very high level.


Let's all take a breath and get ready to welcome either Daniels or Maye to the team.

Also, Mariota is a backup thats why he was brought here, dont know why we are panicing about him.

Part in bold is a great stat, thanks for supplying it.

As I had posted earlier after watching a bunch of their complete games, not clips the full game, I have done a complete 180 and am firmly on Jayden Daniels. Maye does everything well, I tried to convince myself that he is the guy, but he does nothing special. One look at Jayden Daniels and you can see special. If you are going to take a swing take a big swing on someone who could be special, not a guy who could top out at David Carr. As I'm pretty convinced Peters was in on Lance I have to believe that won't make him gun shy and they will go with the guy who could be special.

[mooby]

We have a strong tradition of winning Super Bowls with non-HOF qb's - I had no idea there were people here who want to keep that tradition going.

I think it's become readily apparent in the last 5 years that you need two qb's - you should always be developing a late round guy because you can't take it for granted your qb won't get injured. There's maybe only 5 qb's (don't quote me on that lol) that manage to stay healthy every year and 2 of them recently retired in the last few years (Brady, Eli Manning).

Worse case scenario you draft a qb with a late rounder and he never sees the field because the starter is good and never gets hurt. And if the starter does get hurt or plays poorly you give the developmental guy some PT.

Even if a guy is a backup he's worth draft capital. Howell played like ass in the second half last year and we still managed to trade him for the equivalent of a late 3rd rounder (which is a net gain from the 5th round where he was drafted). It speaks to how overvalued qb's are.

If we draft a late round qb and he sucks, great. Easily cuttable with no huge cap hit and you can always draft another one while signing a veteran backup. My entire point is - you need a minimum of 2 solid or potentially solid qb options on a roster nowadays.

[mredskins]

Originally Posted by mooby

We have a strong tradition of winning Super Bowls with non-HOF qb's - I had no idea there were people here who want to keep that tradition going.

I think it's become readily apparent in the last 5 years that you need two qb's - you should always be developing a late round guy because you can't take it for granted your qb won't get injured. There's maybe only 5 qb's (don't quote me on that lol) that manage to stay healthy every year and 2 of them recently retired in the last few years (Brady, Eli Manning).

Worse case scenario you draft a qb with a late rounder and he never sees the field because the starter is good and never gets hurt. And if the starter does get hurt or plays poorly you give the developmental guy some PT.

Even if a guy is a backup he's worth draft capital. Howell played like ass in the second half last year and we still managed to trade him for the equivalent of a late 3rd rounder (which is a net gain from the 5th round where he was drafted). It speaks to how overvalued qb's are.

If we draft a late round qb and he sucks, great. Easily cuttable with no huge cap hit and you can always draft another one while signing a veteran backup. My entire point is - you need a minimum of 2 solid or potentially solid qb options on a roster nowadays.

agree with you i am just not sure with the amount of holes on this roster we can afford to burn two picks on that position; at least this year

[mooby]

Originally Posted by EARTHQUAKE2689

I am confused by some of the people here, all we heard before this college season is that this is one of the strongest QB classes in years especially at the top, were in position to draft one without having to give anything up and people are backpedaling better than Revis in 2009.

Since 2000 theres only been 5 SBs that didnt involve a first round pick at QB at all, and 4 of those 5 involved Tom Brady, the one that didn't 2002.

We have six picks in the top 100 (Then 2 more in the next 55) and have made very smart FA moves and we have players Allen, Payne, McLaurin, and Cosmi that weve seen play at a high to very high level.


Let's all take a breath and get ready to welcome either Daniels or Maye to the team.

Also, Mariota is a backup thats why he was brought here, dont know why we are panicing about him.

I wanna expand on this line Quake so bear with me. Let's look at all the Super Bowl winning qb's since the year 1999 (which can be argued is a turning point in modernizing passing offenses).

99 - Kurt Warner (HOFer, undrafted, original team)
00 - Trent Dilfer (backup, HOF defense, 1st round, 2nd team)
01 - Tom Brady (GOAT, 6th round, original team)
02 - Brad Johnson (solid, HOF defense, 9th round, 3rd team)
03- Tom Brady (GOAT, 6th round, original team)
04 - Tom Brady (GOAT, 6th round, original team)
05 - Ben Roethlisberger (above average, great defense, 1st round, original team)
06 - P. Manning (HOFer, 1st overall, original team)
07 - E. Manning (average qb, clutch, great defense, 1st round, original team)
08 - Ben Roethlisberger (above average, great defense, 1st round, original team)
09 - Drew Brees (HOFer, 2nd round, 2nd team)
10 - Aaron Rodgers (HOFer, 1st round, original team)
11 - E. Manning (average qb, clutch, great defense,1st round, original team)
12 - Joe Flacco (above average, clutch, good defense, 1st round, original team)
13 - Russell Wilson (elite qb, good defense, 3rd round, original team)
14 - Tom Brady (GOAT, 6th round, original team)
15 - P. Manning (HOFer, 1st overall, 2nd team)
16 - Tom Brady (GOAT, 6th round, original team)
17 - Nick Foles (backup qb, clutch, 3rd round, original team)
18 - Tom Brady (GOAT, 6th round, original team)
19 - P. Mahomes (HOFer, 11th overall, original team)
20 - Tom Brady (GOAT, 6th round, 2nd team)
21 - Matt Stafford (elite, good defense, 1st overall, 2nd team)
22 - P. Mahomes (HOFer, 11th overall, original team)
23 - P. Mahomes (HOFer, 11th overall, original team)

Let's remove Brady from the equation because he's the GOAT and an anomaly - the odds of another qb winning 7 titles is slim because Brady took care of himself/seeking every competitive edge well into his 40's). The odds of drafting the next Brady are incredibly slim (as of 2021 there were 721 qb's who played in the NFL and Brady is 1 of 721, meaning you have a roughly 0.13% odds of finding the next Brady).

Highlights - With Brady out Mahomes is 2nd in line to the throne with 3 titles. He was drafted 11th overall. Out of the 25 year sample size (remove 7 for Brady) the other 18 years 11 of those titles came from 1st round qb's still with their original team.

Let's expand on that a bit. How many teams won titles with a qb they drafted in the 1st round? Of those 18 non-Brady years, 11 titles were won by teams with original drafted qb's in the first round (Both Manning brothers - 3 titles, Mahomes - 3 titles, Roethlisberger - 2 titles, Flacco/Wilson/Rodgers - 1 title ea). So that's a roughly 60% chance of winning a title with the qb you drafted in the first round. Good odds, but not overwhelming. Obviously you need a solid to great defense and some playmakers who can perform in clutch moments.

Looking at this from another angle in the last 6 years Nick Foles was the only non-first round qb to win a title. Stafford was on his 2nd team but they paid a premium for him. Mahomes and Brady are the other winners.

Yet another angle: 19 out of 25 years a qb won the SB with their original team. Remove Brady from the equation and it drops to 12/18.

Just to summarize - qb is one of those positions you gotta keep swinging at. I wasn't a fan of this approach but if you don't have a good qb you are wasting seasons in this league. If you know your guy isn't the guy you gotta keep swinging until you find the guy. I believe Daniels or Maye will be the choice and we'll also take a developmental guy at the end of the draft. The odds of you winning a SB with some other guy's QB are slimmer than finding the guy, whether that be in the first round or otherwise. But if you are gonna win with a qb that wasn't drafted in the first round he better have an amazing complimentary defense.

[mooby]

Originally Posted by mredskins

agree with you i am just not sure with the amount of holes on this roster we can afford to burn two picks on that position; at least this year

It's not about filling holes my guy - it's about drafting players you think will succeed in the NFL. Just because we have a hole at any certain position doesn't mean there will be that guy in the draft who can successfully plug that hole. Some years are just bad for certain players. Other years are strong in certain players. You gotta pick the guys you think will make it.

[mredskins]

Originally Posted by mooby

It's not about filling holes my guy - it's about drafting players you think will succeed in the NFL. Just because we have a hole at any certain position doesn't mean there will be that guy in the draft who can successfully plug that hole. Some years are just bad for certain players. Other years are strong in certain players. You gotta pick the guys you think will make it.

I can draft 5 great QBs but if i have no OL then they are useless; its absolutely about drafting folks who can succeed in the NFL in the positions you need help in thus filling holes in your roster

by your methodology with the number two pick we should pick Harrison Jr; he probably has the highest percent of potential success in the nfl but it sure look silly picking him with our current WRs and QBs on the roster and you have 2 out of 3 high ranked QBs still on the board

i guess it have to come down to who is on the board in late rounds; if there is a OL guy who can help us this year i take him over a developmental QB project

how many teams draft multiply QBs in the same draft? very few off the top of my head