Campbell's numbers dont lie

[44 70 chip]

Originally Posted by Buster

This nonstop hatred for him is what keeps me up for tracking this all year long. He could throw 4 TDs and people would still manufacture excuses as to why he's not to be given credit

By the same token he could have misleadingly high stats for reasons that are painfully obvious and people would still manufacture Pro-Campbell arguments based on those stats and ignoring what is clearly visible during the games.

Facing 6 of the worst teams in the league in the first 7 games, taking 3 or 4 sacks per game without throwing the ball away when he could have, and his suddenly elevated 2nd half "too little too late" performances when the game was out of hand.

If you watch JC's fundamentals all the stats in the world wont convince you that he's the franchise QB the skins need... Not even the fantasy of 4 TD's would.

The only thing being manufactured in this thread is a pro Campbell argument based on a very ludicrous interpretation of stats in a vacuum. That is to say stats with no context such as Wins and losses, situations, or for strength of the competition they were compiled against.

JC has had one good game this season, in which he looked like an above average NFL QB, and that was in a game where the run took all the preasure off him. It could be argued that Jason Cambell has faced 3 good defenses all season, and two of those defenses are currently highly suspect and have serious issues that have lead to them being badly gouged lately (Denver's run and the Giants Pass defenses).

[GMScud]

Originally Posted by T.O.Killa

Sidney Rice is leading the league in recieving yards. Who the hell is he. I have said for years that a quarterback is the most important factor in recieving yards. Where ever Bret Farve goes he makes superstar recievers. Just check out this year as opposed to last year.
Sidney Rice

Actually Sidney Rice is 4th in receiving yards, and he was a first round draft pick I believe, so it's not shocking that he's producing in his third year. But yeah, having Favre certainly helps.

[doughtydoubter]

in qbs there are the "win" factor. The ability to be just arrogant enough to believe that you can take your team down the field despite double coverage, being behind, bad weather or blocking, amd just win it. I just dont see that in JC

[SBXVII]

Originally Posted by doughtydoubter

in qbs there are the "win" factor. The ability to be just arrogant enough to believe that you can take your team down the field despite double coverage, being behind, bad weather or blocking, amd just win it. I just dont see that in JC

There's also the accuracy issue. You don't see those types of QB's throwing the ball behind their receiver's very often, you don't see them over throwing them very often like JC does. I like JC and think he might be better with a better O-line but facts are facts. Watch the games, he simply throws too high and the receivers have to try and go up and get it. He throws constantly behind receivers and it's blatently obvious with Cooley.

The Favre's, Brees's, River's, Mannings (both) don't throw behind their receivers very often they usually lead them with a pass.

[skinster]

Originally Posted by GMScud

Actually Sidney Rice is 4th in receiving yards, and he was a first round draft pick I believe, so it's not shocking that he's producing in his third year. But yeah, having Favre certainly helps.

he was a second

[rbanerjee23]

Say what you want about brett favre being a great quarterback...how many int's has he thrown, i actually don't think he should get into the hal of fame because as many touchdowns hes thrown and games hes won, the worst mistake of a quarterback is to throw an inerception and favre has made more worst mistakes than anyone else who has ever played in the NFL...

[skinster]

Originally Posted by rbanerjee23

Say what you want about brett favre being a great quarterback...how many int's has he thrown, i actually don't think he should get into the hal of fame because as many touchdowns hes thrown and games hes won, the worst mistake of a quarterback is to throw an inerception and favre has made more worst mistakes than anyone else who has ever played in the NFL...

He is a 3 time mvp...

plus the benefit of throwing a td far outweighs the loss of throwing an int. A td is a definate score, an int just makes it possible for the other team to score quicker

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by skinster

He is a 3 time mvp...

plus the benefit of throwing a td far outweighs the loss of throwing an int. A td is a definate score, an int just makes it possible for the other team to score quicker

This isn't at all true. It's actually quite the opposite. A lot of really smart people think the absolute value of an INT is somewhere between two and three times the absolute value of a TD pass.

I'm not agreeing with the poster that suggests that Brett Favre should not be in the hall of fame because he has a strong interception tendency. That's not right either. Brett Favre can make up for an interception tendency by being a high-efficiency passer. Lots of completions, lots of touchdowns, few sacks and fumbles. This efficiency seperates Favre from the Donovan McNabb's, Kerry Collins', Daunte Culpeppers of the world, lower-efficiency players who absolutely need to be throwing three times as many TDs as INTs to be worth a roster spot.

Favre's unquestionably a first-ballot hall of famer, but I think he's come to be overrated in recent seasons because people see a player exceeding his relative expectations and then jump to the level of, "he hasn't lost anything". Favre hasn't been a truly MVP-type player since 2001 or 2002 though. The fact that he's had pro-bowl type seasons in recent years has kind of skewed the public opinion of him.

[CRedskinsRule]

Originally Posted by GTripp0012

This isn't at all true. It's actually quite the opposite. A lot of really smart people think the absolute value of an INT is somewhere between two and three times the absolute value of a TD pass.

...

Can you explain this proposition to us less then smart people. I get that it ends a drive but, unless it is run back for a TD, it seems to me that an absolute value of a TD pass = 6, the most an INT can equal is 6 but often times it is 3 or even 0. So in my basic understanding, the absolute value of a TD pass= 6, and the absolute value of an INT <6.
Another way I could say it, is if you took the avg points awarded for all the TD passes ever thrown in the history of football, it would be 6 points to the scoring team. However, if you took the points awarded off of all the interceptions ever thrown in the history of football, it could not even be close to 6 points to the scoring team, I could even see it being close to 2, because of all the times 0 points are scored off of an INT.

Not being a smart alec, just don't see how an INT is worth 2 or 3 times a TD pass.

[BigHairedAristocrat]

Originally Posted by CRedskinsRule

Can you explain this proposition to us less then smart people. I get that it ends a drive but, unless it is run back for a TD, it seems to me that an absolute value of a TD pass = 6, the most an INT can equal is 6 but often times it is 3 or even 0. So in my basic understanding, the absolute value of a TD pass= 6, and the absolute value of an INT <6.
Another way I could say it, is if you took the avg points awarded for all the TD passes ever thrown in the history of football, it would be 6 points to the scoring team. However, if you took the points awarded off of all the interceptions ever thrown in the history of football, it could not even be close to 6 points to the scoring team, I could even see it being close to 2, because of all the times 0 points are scored off of an INT.

Not being a smart alec, just don't see how an INT is worth 2 or 3 times a TD pass.

Well said. I was about ot ask the same thing. Perhaps QBs who throw alot of INTs typically have significantly lower completion rates than other QBs, but thats a different point. Or maybe it has something to do with "momentum" shifting and changing the way the teams perform. However, I look at it the same way you do: A TD is a garaunteed 6 points. An Int isnt. I'd much rather have a QB that threw 3 INTs and 3 TDs per game than one who didn't throw either.

[Defensewins]

Originally Posted by SBXVII

There's also the accuracy issue. You don't see those types of QB's throwing the ball behind their receiver's very often, you don't see them over throwing them very often like JC does. I like JC and think he might be better with a better O-line but facts are facts. Watch the games, he simply throws too high and the receivers have to try and go up and get it. He throws constantly behind receivers and it's blatently obvious with Cooley.

The Favre's, Brees's, River's, Mannings (both) don't throw behind their receivers very often they usually lead them with a pass.

You are right JC's accuracy is not very good. I watched "Playbook" on NFL network the other night. They did a great job of piecing together the highlights of the QB's in last weeks games. What really jumped out at me is the confidence and accuracy of the other QBs'. The top qb's complete passes in to tight or double coverage, no problem. Campbell plays scared to make plays like that.
Say what you want about JC having to change offensive systems/offensive coordinators every year and that his O-line sucks, but he is still not accurate. Either you have it or you don't. I am beginning to think he does not have it.
One other observation: most really good Qb's get really tight with one or two of his receivers. You know the story, they spend all off season together and they know exactly where they are going to be on the field. They can do it with their eyes closed.
Manning and Wayne, Brady and Moss/Welker, even rookie Sanchez is tight with Cotchery. I do not see that with Campbell and any of our receivers.

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by CRedskinsRule

Can you explain this proposition to us less then smart people. I get that it ends a drive but, unless it is run back for a TD, it seems to me that an absolute value of a TD pass = 6, the most an INT can equal is 6 but often times it is 3 or even 0. So in my basic understanding, the absolute value of a TD pass= 6, and the absolute value of an INT <6.
Another way I could say it, is if you took the avg points awarded for all the TD passes ever thrown in the history of football, it would be 6 points to the scoring team. However, if you took the points awarded off of all the interceptions ever thrown in the history of football, it could not even be close to 6 points to the scoring team, I could even see it being close to 2, because of all the times 0 points are scored off of an INT.

Not being a smart alec, just don't see how an INT is worth 2 or 3 times a TD pass.

By really smart people, I was referring to people much smarter than myself.

Now, I've seen versions of this analysis in multiple places, but I'm going to link to research done by pro football reference, because, well, it's easy to find. I think the original groundwork for this was done by economists Palmer, Thorn, and Carroll (also way smarter than me) in the Hidden Game of Football way back in 1988 (so their research predates me...as in me the person, not just my research).

Pro-football-reference.com blog » Why a touchdown is worth ten yards

Pro-football-reference.com blog » Rearview Adjusted Yards per Attempt

Pro-football-reference.com blog » The Best QB of all time?

PFR has always done a 45 yd penalty for INTs and a 10 yd bonus for TDs. They've recently upped their stats to included a 20 yard bonus for TDs because there's a lot of debate about how valuable a TD pass is compared to a pass down to the one yard line, and it's probably really context heavy no matter what, so the estimate could be way off. But not so way off where an INT and a TD would be of equal value.

If they were of equal value, you'd want a quarterback who threw INTs and TDs at a 1:1 rate to pass on pretty much every down, despite the fact that a guy who throws 20 TDs and 20 INTs in the same year is probably not a great quarterback.

A lot of this is conjecture anyway, and your points are completely valid. That's why I'm linking and not disputing.

[skinsfan69]

Right now Farve is playing some of the best ball I've ever seen him play. Mistake free, take what the defense gives you....but he's still making plays w/ his arm at the age of 40. Simply amazing.

[CRedskinsRule]

GTripp,

I looked at those, and it seems less clear. If you say a TD pass is +10 yds, your basically saying that a TD is equal to one Firstdown. That's not a fair value. I think the -45 for an int is probably a good number, to say an INT costs 4 first downs, or half a possession on a sustained drive. But a TD really has to be considered as valuable as a full possession, because the other team would now be one possession behind your team.

Not sure how all the numbers mish mash, but in this case, I think they are doing it more for historical ranks than actual game time value. I might agree in that regards

[SolidSnake84]

And i think Brett is finally in an offense that is good enough that he doesnt have to throw the ball 40 times a game...and yeah, after the beginning of this season, no way anybody can question Favre's arm at this point....