A New Look Offense or the Same but Better?

[GTripp0012]

The baseline on these DVOA stats is against both runs and passes. So first round run calls are being compared to all first and ten plays leaguewide. Etc. These are the Redskins rates and ranks from the 2011 season.

The Redskins are still pretty dreadful on third downs, but the third down conversion percentage improved from 2010 because they were a lot better on first down this year, so they weren't in quite as many third and longs (and in third down less often altogether).

1st down pass
36.5% (7th)

1st down run
-2.2% (20th)

All first downs
13.6% (10th)

2nd down pass
-8.6% (25th)

2nd down run
-10.0% (30th)

All 2nd down
-11.6% (28th)

3rd/4th passes
-23.6% (27th)

3rd/4th runs
53.2% (4th)

All 3rd/4th down
-18.9% (26th)

All downs (passing)
3.5% (22nd)

All downs (rushing)
-0.5% (17th)

All Downs
-2.1% (19th)

[HailGreen28]

Originally Posted by 30gut

I guess it depends on what you mean by change.
The difference between the playcalling with Rex to bootlegs w/ Beck during the Panthers game I don't consider a change in the offense as much as a shift in the playcalling.
To my eye the Panthers gameplan was still within the framework of the offense; in fact I think that run heavy/boot-action passing is more true to the Texans/Denver WCO playcalling/gameplan/scheme.

But, depending on what you mean by more wide-open that would be a true change.
I'm assuming you mean more shotgun-spread passing?

I think we'll see a mix of what we say last year+some Texans 5-7 step drop deep passing+5-7 step drop/roll-out heavy Jake Plummer Denver WCO.

I agree with you, that with Beck it wasn't a different playbook than Grossman, just different play calling.

I should have been more clear on "wide-open". I have no clue if we're running more shotgun/spread this season.

I'm just thinking this season will seem like night and day between Grossman scrambling, and Griffin running the same play. With more bootlegs/rollouts from under center called.

Yeah, would love to see the deep passing you're talking about on the rollouts. I thought McNabb did once in awhile while he was here, and Grossman tried to do the same.

[30gut]

Originally Posted by GTripp0012

The baseline on these DVOA stats is against both runs and passes. So first round run calls are being compared to all first and ten plays leaguewide. Etc. These are the Redskins rates and ranks from the 2011 season.

Thanks G, very interesting.

What is the percentage in the figures?
Is it the percentage chance of converting for a 1st down?

Can you post or link the complete data set?

[30gut]

Originally Posted by HailGreen28

I'm just thinking this season will seem like night and day between Grossman scrambling, and Griffin running the same play. With more bootlegs/rollouts from under center called.

Yep, some of the yards that Grossman left out there because of mobility and lack of arm strength/velocity, deep ball accuracy Griff will capitalize on.

Originally Posted by Hail

Yeah, would love to see the deep passing you're talking about on the rollouts.

I def think we'll see more 5-7 step drop intermediate passing:

Matt Schaub Houston Texans Highlights - YouTube

[HailGreen28]

Originally Posted by 30gut

I def think we'll see more 5-7 step drop intermediate passing:

(snip pretty cool video)

Hated the first play lol, but nice video. Hope we do see more of that this season.

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by 30gut

Thanks G, very interesting.

What is the percentage in the figures?
Is it the percentage chance of converting for a 1st down?

Can you post or link the complete data set?

The percentage is simply this:

Outcome value of the play/baseline

A 30% play was 30 percent more valuable than the expectation for the down and distance.

[30gut]

Originally Posted by GTripp0012

The percentage is simply this:

Outcome value of the play/baseline

A 30% play was 30 percent more valuable than the expectation for the down and distance.

Thanks,
Do you have the 1st down stats for the Texans?
I wonder how we compare to a good running team.

Personally I don't think Kyle is gonna make significant or meaningful changes.
I think the offense we saw last year is gonna be the offense we see this year.
But, I'm filled with hope and eagerness to be proved utterly wrong.
Because if they harnessed the talent of Griffin and really altered the offense around his skillset he could have a huge impact.
But, at the end of the day I think Robert Griffin is a 'coach proof' talent.

[InsaneBoost]

Better:

In all honesty, I feel our offense was good enough last year. Not saying it was elite or anything along that line, but good enough to compete with "the best" (which they still did, damn Giants). The problem naturally, was QB, and that's what it's going to boil down to this year.

Defenses stacked the box to force the ball into Rex Grossmans hands for the simple fact he didn't scare anyone. Granted he did get some wins, but 9/10 times it's going to work for you.

If Robert Griffin III can come out and shine and cause defenses to respect us, then were finally going to see this offense come together, we'll be able to mix things up a lot better and hurt defenses both in the air and on the ground.

So I guess in a sense, it all boils down to RGIII. Not saying we can't use better players at certain positions and add better depth, but the main reason we failed last year was because nobody feared Grossman.

[Monkeydad]

Originally Posted by HailGreen28

To my untrained eye, Kyle's offense changed to more rollouts/bootlegs when Beck briefly replaced Grossman last season. Looking forward to seeing a much more wide-open offense with RG3.

That's because Beck could actually run well. Rex was the master of the "step into a defender for a sack fumble".

I expect the offense to adapt to RGIII's mobility. They'd be stupid not to tailor the playbook to his talents.

[MTK]

I think we'll see RG3 rolling out a ton. Play-action off the stretch zone will be deadly.

[REDSKINS4ever]

Originally Posted by Mattyk

I think we'll see RG3 rolling out a ton. Play-action off the stretch zone will be deadly.

Those types of plays will work effectively in the short passing game. Expect a lot of high percentage completions to the fullback in the flat, the tight end in the middle of the field, or the half back in the flat.

[los panda]

show me some shades of the 1998 vikings offense

[Monkeydad]

Originally Posted by los panda

show me some shades of the 1998 vikings offense

Why not the 1991 Redskins?

[Monkeydad]

Originally Posted by REDSKINS4ever

Those types of plays will work effectively in the short passing game. Expect a lot of high percentage completions to the fullback in the flat, the tight end in the middle of the field, or the half back in the flat.

Bubble screen!

(Anyone who heard the commentary during the OK State game will understand...)

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by 30gut

Thanks,
Do you have the 1st down stats for the Texans?
I wonder how we compare to a good running team.

Personally I don't think Kyle is gonna make significant or meaningful changes.
I think the offense we saw last year is gonna be the offense we see this year.
But, I'm filled with hope and eagerness to be proved utterly wrong.
Because if they harnessed the talent of Griffin and really altered the offense around his skillset he could have a huge impact.
But, at the end of the day I think Robert Griffin is a 'coach proof' talent.

For the 2011 Texans:

1st down passing
59.2% (3rd)

1st down rushing
-0.6% (16th)

All 1st downs
20.3% (5th)

2nd down passing
8.2% (17th)

2nd down rushing
9.3% (10th)

All 2nd downs
4.9% (16th)

3rd/4th down passing
7.5% (15th)

3rd/4th down rushing
30.3% (8th)

All 3rd/4th downs
13.2% (12th)

All passing
27.3% (9th)

All rushing
7.9% (10th)

All offense
13.3% (9th)

If you look at the trends, the Texans are really similar to us (I suppose thats not the most surprising thing). They're a lot better on offense, sure, but the down/distance splits break down almost exactly identical.