Wft quarterback of the future

[skinsfaninok]

"I know that the Washington Football Team, their Super Bowl window, it opens next season."

—
@Foxworth24
Eyes

[mooby]

Originally Posted by CRedskinsRule

Between 2000 and 2019 there were 56 qb's drafted in the first round. Here is a good article ranking them: https://www.sportingnews.com/us/nfl/...k1gnhl9iqrp2pg

Of the 7 you listed as elite: 4 were 1st rounders, 3 were outside of the first round, and adding in that Rodgers was selected at pick 24, where we almost certainly will be picking before, that means half the qb's you list elite available would theoretically be available when we pick, and also 53 selections that the teams got wrong.

My point is that what is important is that you pick the right qb, and that comes down to Front Office - GM, Scouting and Coach. Now, with the WFT you have the added question of whether the owner will nose around in the selection, and that is where success this year gives RR the extra credibility to keep Dan Snyder at bay.

As for Alex, he is one of those 53 1st rounders, and he certainly is above game manager level. He has that knack to lead winning teams.

I wholeheartedly agree, who you draft at qb is way more important than where you draft, and you can't just go picking a qb if you're gonna ignore all the red flags in hopes that you can be the team that straightens them out.

But Alex Smith this year (as much as I love him and his inspiring comeback story) is barely even game manager level. Maybe he's still knocking the rust off? I give him the benefit of the doubt. But let's look at the numbers of his compadres around the league.

I made this table (thanks AnonEmouse) to compare the stats of the league leaders at the position, here's your top 12:

A couple things: I didn't include fumbles because ESPN and NFL.com and Pro Football Reference all make tracking fumbles difficult thanks to how they sort it. Other than the exceptions noted most elite qb's only have 1-2 fumbles (not sure how many lost since ESPN doesn't specify except in cases of rushing fumbles). So their TD/TO ratio is mostly based off passing td's/int's, except in cases where rushing is a feature of their style.

For draft position I put a star on Tannehill because he had to escape the Dolphins to revitalize his career and ascend to the next level. Kirk could have a star too as he had to sit for 3 seasons and study/wait before he got PT, then it took half a season of playing terribly and going down 24-3 at the half to the Bucs before he finally said fuck it and decided to play like he had nothing to lose. But for most of these qb's they are still with the team that drafted them and playing well.

Now we scroll down to Alex. I love Alex's redemption story and would be happy rolling with him next year while we find someone to groom, but I also believe planning around a 37 year old qb coming off a gruesome leg injury that is apparently having some sort of issue would be a terrible career move for Ron.



My key takeaways from this: You don't have to draft a qb at the top of the 1st to find a stud. You do need a qb with a minimum of 2/1 TD/TO ratio just to compete. If you draft a guy in the later rounds, the odds are that he's going to need more time to sit and develop are higher. Turning someone else's trash into treasure (R. Tannehill) is not impossible, but it is improbable.

And finally, there are guys that aren't even mentioned here still having above-average seasons, but they aren't making any noise for whatever reason.

Kyler Murray 23/10 td/int (plus 10 rushing td's)
Matt Stafford 22/9
Phillip Rivers 20/9
Drew Brees 18/3 (small sample size obv)
Lamar Jackson 18/7 (plus 6 rushing td's)

I think we might be a bit jaded because last time we traded up for a qb in the draft, it set this franchise back about 4 years. But let's say we finish with a draft pick between 16-32, would you trade 2022's first to move up a few spots to draft a guy you like (assuming he's available on draft day?)

Right now we have a quality defense (could use some help at LB/maybe a corner/safety if they want better play from Everett). Assuming we get another quality target at WR/TE next year we might be looking at a 2-3 year window (while we still have key guys on rookie contracts) where we can try to contend. Do we really want to waste next season letting more young guys develop? No. Alex Smith might expect to roll into the offseason as the starter for next year, but that doesn't mean we should be complacent with who we have on the roster at qb. We gotta start looking for the next guy, if Ron & co. aren't already.

[AnonEmouse]

Originally Posted by skinsfaninok

WFT twitter verse is trying to hype up a Watson trade lmao there is no way that happens

If O'Brien l was still in the house maybe...

[MTK]

Originally Posted by skinsfaninok

"I know that the Washington Football Team, their Super Bowl window, it opens next season."

—
@Foxworth24
Eyes

No doubt, a couple more pieces on D and this is a championship caliber D. Just need a little more on offense but overall this team is ready to win in the next 2-3 years if they play their cards right.

[AnonEmouse]

Mooby, sorry to be a pedant, but that's a table not a chart. 😉

[Chief X_Phackter]

Originally Posted by mooby

I think we might be a bit jaded because last time we traded up for a qb in the draft, it set this franchise back about 4 years. But let's say we finish with a draft pick between 16-32, would you trade 2022's first to move up a few spots to draft a guy you like (assuming he's available on draft day?)

I would be for that, absolutely. They moved up about 20 slots to get Sweat at 26 - cost them two 2nd round picks. If they somehow find their QB of the future in the second half of the 1st round, and only give up two 2nd rounders or 2022's 1st round pick...I'd be all in on that, providing we keep our 2021 1st round pick.

[mooby]

Originally Posted by AnonEmouse

Mooby, sorry to be a pedant, but that's a table not a chart. 😉

To anyone else I'd say IDGAF, but I ain't got no beef with you.

Thanks for the heads up.

[mooby]

Originally Posted by Chief X_Phackter

I would be for that, absolutely. They moved up about 20 slots to get Sweat at 26 - cost them two 2nd round picks. If they somehow find their QB of the future in the second half of the 1st round, and only give up two 2nd rounders or 2022's 1st round pick...I'd be all in on that, providing we keep our 2021 1st round pick.

Exactly. In the scenario I'm implying, we either win the division and pick between 20-30 dep. how far we go. Or we lose the division and pick between 10-20.

In either scenario we'd trade 2022's first rounder to move up into the next 10 spots to draft a guy who's on the board. Ideally if we could give up 2 two's instead of a first, that'd be better.

[AnonEmouse]

I'd say it might depend on FA. If we fill some gaps with solid not too expensive guys, then we can probably spare 1 or 2 picks in a trade. But if they are cautious and we still have holes, I'd be wary of trading away valuable picks for an unknown.

[Number44]

Originally Posted by Chief X_Phackter

I would be for that, absolutely. They moved up about 20 slots to get Sweat at 26 - cost them two 2nd round picks. If they somehow find their QB of the future in the second half of the 1st round, and only give up two 2nd rounders or 2022's 1st round pick...I'd be all in on that, providing we keep our 2021 1st round pick.

Actually, in the trade to move up to draft Sweat in 2019, one of the 2 second round picks you mentioned was the one we were moving up from. The actual "cost" of moving up the 20 or so spots for that pick was one second round pick - the 2020 one. If you are talking about giving up two seconds in addition to the first round pick we are moving up from to move up 10 or so spots, we'd better be damn sure about the guy we would be getting, IMO.

[Chief X_Phackter]

Originally Posted by Number44

Actually, in the trade to move up to draft Sweat in 2019, one of the 2 second round picks you mentioned was the one we were moving up from. The actual "cost" of moving up the 20 or so spots for that pick was one second round pick - the 2020 one. If you are talking about giving up two seconds in addition to the first round pick we are moving up from to move up 10 or so spots, we'd better be damn sure about the guy we would be getting, IMO.

They gave up pick # 46 (2nd round) from 2019, and pick # 34 (2nd round) from 2020. The cost to pick at #26 in 2019 was two 2nd round picks.

[punch it in]

Originally Posted by Chief X_Phackter

I'm no cap expert, but that just seems crazy given what Alex is still due. It would have to be a cheap Vet, and if it's a cheap Vet, is he really an upgrade? If it's not a cheap Vet then you are jeopardizing the opportunity to upgrade the positions around him in free agency, and you just take your chances in the draft. There are some decisions to be made ($$ to be spent) on the Oline and elsewhere.



Scherff and Roullier are both UFA this offseason, as well as Sundberg, Hopkins, KPL, Darby, Cam Sims, Reaves, Moreau, all the TEs except for Thomas. I wouldn't mind an upgrade at tackle since we don't know what we have in Charles. WR needs to be upgraded, and TE. This defense is good, but the back seven could use some upgrades/extensions... I just don't see how you tie up a bunch of additional $ in the QB position, and still improve the rest of the team, or even maintain what you have.

Im certainly no cap expert but Snyder will find a way to pay say Stafford or Rivers if he thinks we can seriously contend for a title next year. We have a few key guys injured coming back. We have the draft. I dont know how much of a splash in free agency we would need to make. Also RR will have a full pre season and a lot of our young guys are only going to get better.
That being said Im all for what Mooby alluded to which is trading down and giving up 2022’s first for a guy like Zach Wilson and then you can spend in free agency.
Problem is FA starts March so if all the vets get signed and we cant trade down in April well.....

[Chief X_Phackter]

So what I meant by that is, if WFT can trade their 2020 2nd round pick and their 2021 2nd round pick to move back into the back end of the 1st round and find their QB of the future, I'd be just fine with that. I would not be fine with including the 2021 1st round pick.

[Number44]

Originally Posted by Chief X_Phackter

They gave up pick # 46 (2nd round) from 2019, and pick # 34 (2nd round) from 2020. The cost to pick at #26 in 2019 was two 2nd round picks.

Again, the #46 pick is the one they moved up from. It cost the 2020 2nd round pick to move up.

[jamf]

Originally Posted by mooby

I wholeheartedly agree, who you draft at qb is way more important than where you draft, and you can't just go picking a qb if you're gonna ignore all the red flags in hopes that you can be the team that straightens them out.

I disagree. I hate to oversimplify but I would rather have the first pick of QBs.

The first two QBs drafted are typically the best in that draft class.
Russell Wilson and Tom Brady are exceptions.

Jamarcus Russell and Brady Quinn were horrible first round picks but that draft had zero QB talent. Brady Quinn was best of that draft class.

If a talented QB is there, you gotta taken him or you end up drafting Carlos Rogers instead of Aaron Rodgers(2nd QB drafted behind Alex Smith).

There isn't a young successful QB playing right now that was drafted outside of the first round or second round.
Getting a guy like Herbert, Murray, or Josh Allen is the quickest way to turn around a franchise.

Drafting a QB is only a piece of the puzzle.
You have draft the guy who can play in your system and develop him.

Can't pass on a QB if you need one.