2012 Presidential Election (free for all edition)

[Dirtbag59]

Originally Posted by 12thMan

Romney's not winning VA, tell you that right now. He'll squeak NC maybe. And Florida is razor close.

Obama's baseline EV is more in the 240 range.

I can tell you with certainty that Romney will not squeak out North Carolina. rather it will be as close to dark red as a swing state can get.

Virginia, you're closer to that area then me obviously so maybe you know better but everything I've read and heard from family and friends say it's going to be a Romney win.

Florida for better or worse has a large senior population that believes Obamacare is going to raid Medicare and full implementation will cause quality doctors to retire. Obviously Obamacare can't simply be overturned but with Obama reelected theres not even a chance of budget reconciliation.

Keep in mind I have great respect for the AHCA. It's the reason I'm insured today and the reason why I didn't have to wait to get covered when I got hired for my current job. And the most important thing is even if overturned it will force any bill passed in the future to have some sort of protection for people like me with preexisting conditions. With that said the bill is overkill and needs to be reigned in but I don't agree that it's the end of the world like the GOP will have you believe.

Back to poll skewing though. The reason I'm intrigued is apparently back in 2010 the models used mirrored the turnout of the 2008 election with a democratic advantage in states like Ohio around +8. During the midterms the turnout favored Republicans +1 despite polls sampling more Democrats.

Thats part of the reason I'm hedging my bets between Obama barely winning (in line with a decent amount of polls inside the margin of error) and a Romney landslide (that in retrospect would show polls oversampling Dems).

In the end it will be interesting to see if the concept of poll skewing is legit or just a GOP conspiracy theory.

[Slingin Sammy 33]

Originally Posted by NC_Skins

Not looking good brah.


Obama vs. Romney Electoral Map

Huff Post

Lets look at real numbers:

RealClearPolitics - 2012 Election Maps - Electoral Map

[dmek25]

Originally Posted by Slingin Sammy 33

Huff Post

Lets look at real numbers:

RealClearPolitics - 2012 Election Maps - Electoral Map

dont know how they figure, but Penn is solidly for lord O....game , set, match

[Slingin Sammy 33]

Originally Posted by dmek25

dont know how they figure, but Penn is solidly for lord O....game , set, match

PA is really a non-factor, it's fool's gold for the GOP, but with the polls tightening it forces Dem $$$ to be allocated in PA just to be safe.

Romney does not in any way, shape, or form need PA to win. If (when) VA, NC, FL fall into the GOP column, the only remaining hope Obama has is OH...and even if by a miracle Obama steals Ohio, then if CO/WI/NH/NV or some combination of those fall GOP Romney can still win. It appears all eyes will be around the Great Lakes late on Nov. 6th.

Watch Rasmussen's polls, he's historically been one of, if not the most, accurate over the last 8 years.

[dmek25]

first, you are actually comparing Obamas response to sandy, and W's response to Katrina? you really have your had in your ass if you think thats even close.
Obama and Christie: A Sandy love story | NJ.com
Capital Tonight « NY's only statewide political program

[firstdown]

Originally Posted by dmek25

first, you are actually comparing Obamas response to sandy, and W's response to Katrina? you really have your had in your ass if you think thats even close.
Obama and Christie: A Sandy love story | NJ.com
Capital Tonight « NY's only statewide political program

This was all a said (see below) and at the time was the truth. I was pretty much joking about how Obama is really good at spending money. As for FEMA they might have people on the ground but it will take a long time before people start to see any checks from them. It does not matter who is in office FEMA sucks.

"Obama is doing what he knows how to do best. Hand out money. Other then that what has he done? What we will not see is the people waiting for their checks from FEMA 4 to 6 MONTHS from now if they are luck to get them then. FEMA is a nightmare."

[NC_Skins]

Isn't there a bet on the line with Sammy and Saden?? (or was it somebody else) Going to be interesting if any of them pay up.

[Slingin Sammy 33]

Originally Posted by NC_Skins

Isn't there a bet on the line with Sammy and Saden?? (or was it somebody else) Going to be interesting if any of them pay up.

You are correct, and I know saden is an upstanding guy and will pay promptly upon the Obama concession & Romney victory.

[Daseal]

Originally Posted by Slingin Sammy 33

You are correct, and I know saden is an upstanding guy and will pay promptly upon the Obama concession & Romney victory.

What is the bet?!

[Slingin Sammy 33]

Originally Posted by Daseal

What is the bet?!

2 hundo.

[firstdown]

I actually have to correct myself. The National Flood Insurance Program is now under HomeLand Security not FEMA.

[MTK]

I say Obama wins and its probably not all that close.

[12thMan]

Originally Posted by Mattyk

I say Obama wins and its probably not all that close.

I tend to agree with this.

[12thMan]

Also, just wanted to say SlinginSammy and Firstdown are good stand up guys. Disagree though we may, they're solid family dudes and I believe they want what's best for the country.

GMScud on the other hand, shady mofo

[Slingin Sammy 33]

Originally Posted by 12thMan

Also, just wanted to say SlinginSammy and Firstdown are good stand up guys. Disagree though we may, they're solid family dudes and I believe they want what's best for the country.

GMScud on the other hand, shady mofo

Thx 12th, right back at you. and agree on GMScud, lol.