Redskins No. 1 pick in 2010 NFL Draft

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by irish

Thats the thing about JC, he puts up decent numbers in most categories except points so in the end he struggles to win. I think JC is the text book case of the percentages not telling the whole story, JC just isnt a winner.

In other words: Campbell is to winning as irish is to logic?

[redskin4n]

I hope we get the 32nd pick!!!

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by SC Skins Fan

I've actually come around to the "dark side" on Campbell after being a consistent supporter since he was drafted. I actually think you are correct about statistics not telling the story with Campbell and I actually think that one of the reasons that guys like GTripp are so hell-bent on insisting that he is a franchise quarterback is because they are "stat guys." That is great, and I read Tripp's stuff on here and on his blog, but I actually have come to believe that he is wrong on Campbell. I think the stats cloud his opinion (which is usually very judicious, but is biased in favor of Campbell) and it is also very difficult to properly evaluate quarterbacks without having access to the coaches tape. There is a subjective element with quarterbacks, more than any other position, that you cannot access through statistical analysis.

The thing I have realized about Campbell after watching him this year is that he lacks a refined sense of timing and anticipation. He has all of the tools, but he too often throws only to open receivers rather than anticipating routes. He also is not very good with the nuances of the position, like manipulating safeties. He is very much like David Garrard in that way. Both have physical tools, both can spin the rock, both actually put up good statistical numbers, but both have inconsistent mechanics, lack timing and anticipation, and are not elite players at the position. Garrard has a QB rating of 84.8 for his career, is a 60% career passer, and has 23 more TDs than INTs, but he is not a very good quarterback (there are actually many QBs that do not possess superior timing and anticipation, but Campbell's deficiencies really crystallized for me when I was watching Garrard last week against Arizona ... for instance you could throw Brady Quinn's name in there, but Quinn is not as good an analogue because his statistics are horrible). Garrard is "just a guy" and that is what Campbell is too. They both are capable of having great games (see Garrard in the 2007 Divisional playoffs or Campbell in the first Cowboys game last year) but neither will do so consistently. Hell, Campbell could light up the Lions defense as he did last year. The bottom line, though, is that while you can probably win some games with Campbell, he will not consistently make your team better.

Campbell's lack of timing/anticipation also leads him to hold the ball too long and I think it is really the heart of the Redskins struggles in the red zone. You can say that Sellers and Thomas dropped TD passes against St. Louis, which is absolutely true, but that does not answer why the Redskins have an endemic problem scoring inside the 20. If Campbell completes those passes it just means that he can defeat a very bad defense, which I expect, but it does not solve the larger issues in his game. Inside the 20 is where the importance of timing and anticipation (I know I am overusing that, but I take it from Greg Cosell and I think it is the best way to describe that quarterback attribute) is heightened due to the condensed field. Campbell has still not shown that ability and with this many snaps in the NFL he probably never will. Not being a great quarterback does not make him a bad person or anything, but it does mean that the Redskins most likely will have to find another solution after this season. On a positive note, it does suggest that the Redskins actually did properly evaluate Campbell in the off-season and were correct to pursue other opportunities, even if the opportunity costs were perhaps too high. Maybe they are not totally clueless after all. Although that does not absolve them of the Devin Thomas and Jason Taylor moves.

I know this post will be read, if it is read at all, as just another attack on Jason Campbell and we know he has taken plenty. I certainly would not want to pile on, and I really like the guy as a person (or at least as the persona that I am familiar with).

As for this thread. Well Snead clearly is not an answer either.

I think you're making the best well thought out Campbell argument to date, but I actually think the subjective elements of Campbell actually strengthen his case.

And I've always said: you can make an argument that Campbell holds the ball too long. But, I believe there are extenuating circumstances that have contributed to a rising sack rate. I also maintain that if I am correct about Campbell, his sack rate will drop significantly in the future (and currently, it's at a career low 4.7% in a SSS).

As for the statistical argument, I would suggest that Quarterback play more than any other position can be measured inclusively by the statistics. Your point that there are critical elements of quarterbacking (as opposed to other positions) that can not be measured statistically is on the surface, valid. But I think it's a somewhat misleading point. Not wrong, but I question the assertion that quarterback play, specifically, has intangible aspects that other positions do not have. That small part seems false. I would suggest that the argument of route anticipation exists in a more direct sense for both Corners and Receivers.

The question is: how do you explain the statistical studies that suggest that in the history of the statistical record, no quarterback has a skill known as "red zone ability". That, of course, is to say that: the best red zone passers in history were also the best passers in the rest of the field as well.

Again, I have nothing that suggests your points about Campbell's anticipatory ability are necessarily wrong. Not one shred of evidence. But if, over the season, Campbell's red zone numbers normalize to the rest of his numbers, and the offense scores more points as a product, I would at that point suggest that yes, he has answered all the questions.

Until then, I thank you for contributing yet another element to my game reviews that I can analyze, because, though completely subjective, finding a few instances per game where Campbell's incompletions are attributable to throwing the ball later than the play design suggests should be pretty easy.

And I'll bet a whole lot of money we will find evidence that points in both directions.

[GTripp0012]

I think you can also have a really, really good debate on whether Campbell can blossom into a GREAT quarterback, or if the end game for him is simply a little bit better than he already is. Maybe that's the one we are already having. I'd conditionally agree that if Campbell doesn't have great anticipatory ability, he probably can't be more than a one or two time pro bowler at best.

Aaron Brooks also never had any sort of anticipatory ability, but that's just the thing: once his personnel went through a minor overhaul and once the league got some film on him, he stopped producing. I think we can all agree that Campbell is not another Aaron Brooks, but I still have to question the assertion that either Garrard or Leftwich can't get it done in this league.

Leftwich has a very measurable deficiency: he's never going to play 16 games in a season. Garrard's in a pretty similar situation to Campbell in that, you can look at the people on the offense around him and wonder exactly how that 2007 season happened.

I think this season will tell us a lot about Campbell, and I'll just suggest that what you want to know about him probably could be measured statistically, and fairly easily I would suggest, although sample size will be an issue.

[GMScud]

Originally Posted by SC Skins Fan

I've actually come around to the "dark side" on Campbell after being a consistent supporter since he was drafted. I actually think you are correct about statistics not telling the story with Campbell and I actually think that one of the reasons that guys like GTripp are so hell-bent on insisting that he is a franchise quarterback is because they are "stat guys." That is great, and I read Tripp's stuff on here and on his blog, but I actually have come to believe that he is wrong on Campbell. I think the stats cloud his opinion (which is usually very judicious, but is biased in favor of Campbell) and it is also very difficult to properly evaluate quarterbacks without having access to the coaches tape. There is a subjective element with quarterbacks, more than any other position, that you cannot access through statistical analysis.

The thing I have realized about Campbell after watching him this year is that he lacks a refined sense of timing and anticipation. He has all of the tools, but he too often throws only to open receivers rather than anticipating routes. He also is not very good with the nuances of the position, like manipulating safeties. He is very much like David Garrard in that way. Both have physical tools, both can spin the rock, both actually put up good statistical numbers, but both have inconsistent mechanics, lack timing and anticipation, and are not elite players at the position. Garrard has a QB rating of 84.8 for his career, is a 60% career passer, and has 23 more TDs than INTs, but he is not a very good quarterback (there are actually many QBs that do not possess superior timing and anticipation, but Campbell's deficiencies really crystallized for me when I was watching Garrard last week against Arizona ... for instance you could throw Brady Quinn's name in there, but Quinn is not as good an analogue because his statistics are horrible). Garrard is "just a guy" and that is what Campbell is too. They both are capable of having great games (see Garrard in the 2007 Divisional playoffs or Campbell in the first Cowboys game last year) but neither will do so consistently. Hell, Campbell could light up the Lions defense as he did last year. The bottom line, though, is that while you can probably win some games with Campbell, he will not consistently make your team better.

Campbell's lack of timing/anticipation also leads him to hold the ball too long and I think it is really the heart of the Redskins struggles in the red zone. You can say that Sellers and Thomas dropped TD passes against St. Louis, which is absolutely true, but that does not answer why the Redskins have an endemic problem scoring inside the 20. If Campbell completes those passes it just means that he can defeat a very bad defense, which I expect, but it does not solve the larger issues in his game. Inside the 20 is where the importance of timing and anticipation (I know I am overusing that, but I take it from Greg Cosell and I think it is the best way to describe that quarterback attribute) is heightened due to the condensed field. Campbell has still not shown that ability and with this many snaps in the NFL he probably never will.

I know this post will be read, if it is read at all, as just another attack on Jason Campbell and we know he has taken plenty. I certainly would not want to pile on, and I really like the guy as a person (or at least as the persona that I am familiar with). Not being a great quarterback does not make him a bad person or anything, but it does mean that the Redskins most likely will have to find another solution after this season. On a positive note, it does suggest that the Redskins actually did properly evaluate Campbell in the off-season and were correct to pursue other opportunities, even if the opportunity costs were perhaps too high. Maybe they are not totally clueless after all. Although that does not absolve them of the Devin Thomas and Jason Taylor moves.

As for this thread. Well Snead clearly is not an answer either.

This is one of the best posts I've read on here in a while. I've also been a staunch supporter of JC, but like you, that support is starting to waver a bit. I get what you mean about anticipation, and I think the Garrad comparison may be a good one. I need to see more games on down the stretch this year with steady improvement, or I'm done with him. And the Redskins will be too.

[Eknox]

I like Ryan Mallett Arkansas , the guy has a serious arm and deadly accurate and around 6-foot-7, unfortunately just a sophomore though..

[irish]

Originally Posted by GTripp0012

In other words: Campbell is to winning as irish is to logic?

I am mostly logical. JC is mostly an ineffective QB no matter what the completion % and interception rates say.

[#56fanatic]

I know we will get one of the big 3 QB's coming out. Bradford probably more NFL ready by running an NFL style offense. Danny will not let that get away (ala Sanchez). he will give up what ever is needed to get him. Unless for some ungodly reason he loves Timmy T and gets him at our pick on 2nd round.

I sure hope that isn't the case...i just dont think Timmy T is going to translate into an NFL QB.

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by irish

I am mostly logical. JC is mostly an ineffective QB no matter what the completion % and interception rates say.

Well, yeah, but without SC's contributions in this thread, there's been no logic, just a lot of, "nyah, nyah, I can't hear you!" Nobody really cares who you find to be a winner and who you find not to be.

[Redskin Warrior]

Originally Posted by #56fanatic

I know we will get one of the big 3 QB's coming out. Bradford probably more NFL ready by running an NFL style offense. Danny will not let that get away (ala Sanchez). he will give up what ever is needed to get him. Unless for some ungodly reason he loves Timmy T and gets him at our pick on 2nd round.

I sure hope that isn't the case...i just dont think Timmy T is going to translate into an NFL QB.

Like I said before all that running Tebow is doing will not happen in the NFL. Ray Lewis, Pat Willis & others that play linebacker will welcome him to the NFL quickly. If Randle El could not make it as a QB in the NFL neither will Tebow. If you take away Percy Harvin, Louis Murphy, Will Demps & Brandon James during his college career he is not that effective he averages between 95-110 passing yards per game.

[Lotus]

Originally Posted by #56fanatic

I know we will get one of the big 3 QB's coming out. Bradford probably more NFL ready by running an NFL style offense. Danny will not let that get away (ala Sanchez). he will give up what ever is needed to get him. Unless for some ungodly reason he loves Timmy T and gets him at our pick on 2nd round.

I sure hope that isn't the case...i just dont think Timmy T is going to translate into an NFL QB.

I agree about Tebow.

I hope that we don't get one of the top 3 QB's. Instead, I'd rather get one of the top O-linemen or one of the top halfbacks.

[WaldSkins]

I'm just going to throw Jimmy Clausen into this "arms" race we are discussing.

[tootergray34]

if we get gruden...which I hear we are interested...you better believe gruden wants tebow.

gruden ... "Tim Tebow is 245 lbs of concrete cyanice"

book it

[number21isabadman]

GTRIPP needs to get a grip. Campbell sucks, analysis that

[Ruhskins]

Originally Posted by Lotus

I agree about Tebow.

I hope that we don't get one of the top 3 QB's. Instead, I'd rather get one of the top O-linemen or one of the top halfbacks.

Agreed about the top offensive lineman. People here bitch and whine about Snyder and Cerrato, and then they turn around and post that they'd take a QB with the first round pick just like Snyder and Cerrato would.

We need offensive linemen, linebackers, and a runningback, that's should be the other of priority when it comes to the draft.