Coronavirus (non political)

[sdskinsfan2001]

Originally Posted by MTK

Social Security will be there. Source: I work there.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Won't change my planning. But I have no qualms with having extra money upon retiring.

[MTK]

https://www.cbpp.org/research/social...ty-trust-funds

[MTK]

Originally Posted by sdskinsfan2001

Won't change my planning. But I have no qualms with having extra money upon retiring.

Yeah that’s the thing, Social Security should only be a part of your long term planning, not the focus.

[Chico23231]

Like to get folks thoughts on if we will have a vaccine announcement by end of year? Or Vaccine being administered by end of year? Or longer ways off than most think?

I feel we will have an announcement around November and vaccinations probably within 60 days. I feel progress has yielded better than expected results from what I read.

[MTK]

By the end of the year seems optimistic. If I had to bet I’d say a vaccine may be available sometime in the 2nd quarter of 2021.

[SolidSnake84]

Originally Posted by Chico23231

Like to get folks thoughts on if we will have a vaccine announcement by end of year? Or Vaccine being administered by end of year? Or longer ways off than most think?

I feel we will have an announcement around November and vaccinations probably within 60 days. I feel progress has yielded better than expected results from what I read.

Everything i am hearing also says that we will have a vaccine before the end of the year, but it will only receive emergency authorization from the FDA, and the first round of doses will only be for the most at risk people, first responders, etc..... Everyone else & "normal" people will be able to begin getting vaccinated in the 1st quarter of 2021. With the help of the US Military setting up vaccination sites, i'm sure it will take the rest of 2021, but we should have close to everyone or as many people as possible vaccinated by this time next year...

[SunnySide]

Vaccines - im getting worried there will not be a magical vaccine.

Will the vaccine prevent all mutation strains of Covid?

Will the vaccine only protect for 2-3 months then the antibodies die off?

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A new mutation of Covid-19 is now the most dominant strand of the virus globally and forming clusters quicker in the UK than the original virus from Wuhan, an expert has warned. Professor Nick Loman of the University of Birmingham, who is part of the Covid-19 Genomics Consortium, said the mutation, known as D614G, has an observable impact on cases in humans. While it is not thought the new form of the virus causes a greater risk of death, or lengthier hospital stays, it is helping outbreaks spread more rapidly across the world. Prof Loman also said he suspected the new mutation would not impact the process of finding a vaccine for Covid-19, particularly given its prevalence globally. So how far away is a vaccine? Here is the latest on the UK and US trials.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/202...ion-spreading/

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A doctor at Sheba Medical Center in Tel Hashomer tested positive again for the novel coronavirus three months after initially recovering from the disease.
The doctor “tested positive again because she has remnants of her first virus still floating around in her body,” a hospital spokesperson told The Jerusalem Post on Sunday.
The doctor suffered from fever, cough and muscle pain when she tested positive for the virus in April, but she recovered and tested negative in May and June.
Earlier this month, she came in contact with a confirmed patient and subsequently tested positive for the virus.
The cases are the latest in a series of incidents of suspected reinfection that have raised questions concerning how long immunity against the virus lasts.
In May, a 45-year-old woman from Jisr e-Zarka tested positive for coronavirus after being readmitted to Hillel Yaffe Medical Center in Hadera, suffering from fever and chest pains. This came a month after she was discharged after recovering from the virus and testing negative twice.
Several studies are attempting to figure out how long protection provided by antibodies will last, Dr. Maria van Kerkhove, the World Health Organization’s COVID-19 technical lead, said last week, adding that some initial studies have found they “may wane after a couple of months.”
With coronaviruses such as SARS and MERS, people had some form of immunity for about a year or even longer, but with other human coronaviruses that circulate regularly, the immunity period is much shorter, Kerkhove said. This is “early data,” and more studies are needed, she said.
Preliminary studies in China, Germany, the UK and elsewhere have found patients infected with the novel coronavirus make protective antibodies as part of their immune system’s defenses, but these appear to last only a few months.
That raises big problems for developers of potential COVID-19 vaccines, experts say, and for public health authorities seeking to deploy them to protect populations from future waves of the pandemic.
To be truly effective, COVID-19 vaccines “will either need to generate stronger and longer-lasting protection... or they may need to be given regularly,” said Stephen Griffin, a Leeds University associate professor of medicine. “And those things are not trivial.”
https://www.jpost.com/health-science...overing-635550

[Chico23231]

https://www.acsh.org/news/2020/06/23...age-race-14863

Open this up and look at the data

[Giantone]

Originally Posted by Chico23231

https://www.acsh.org/news/2020/06/23...age-race-14863

Open this up and look at the data

the ones 85 and older what underlying issues did they have and would they have passed anyway?

[SunnySide]

73.6 million minors in the US as of 2016

0.0016 infection mortality rate for 5-9 year olds

117,760 minor deaths (assumes entire minor population gets infected, which it wont)

That only looks at deaths .. not hospitalizations, long term health consequences etc

--------------------------

I understand the importance of mortality rates to be included as part of the discussion but I dont understand the motivation to downplay the virus by tunnel visioning on just the mortality rate and ignoring all other considerations.

Thankfully the mortality rate is not higher .. but when you put those small percents to huge infection rates = huge death totals.

if 50k kids die because all schools open .. that is not a win.

[Chico23231]

Wow you are spinning this wildly. Stick to the facts

Jfc it’s pathetic at this point

[SunnySide]

chico - can you calmly or rationally explain how I am spinning this or ignoring facts? I 100% honestly want to know. Is my math wrong? Could very well be. Arent percentages only important when you apply that percent to a total number?

You want to champion a low percent mortality rate, okay that is an important part of the discussion .. but then end the discussion as "spinning" when a person takes the logical next step of appling that rate to the total infection number.

If I am spinning ... please spell it out for me in a logical way. I 100% want to know if perhaps I am bias blind here. I very well could be and genuinely want to know.

[Chico23231]

Originally Posted by Giantone

the ones 85 and older what underlying issues did they have and would they have passed anyway?

I don’t know g1 but that’s the official cdc stats

But the deaths are small enough under 55 year old where you should be able to parse the data to find out if each death had an underlying medical issue.

My guess is, I would say at a minimum a third had underlying issues or high risk. 1/3 would be extremely conservative estimate based on other data

[Chico23231]

Like to see the Flu deaths from 2019 in the same age ranges for the same months


Wonder what they would be?

[SunnySide]

Originally Posted by Chico23231

Like to see the Flu deaths from 2019 in the same age ranges for the same months


Wonder what they would be?

CDC estimates that influenza was associated with more than 35.5 million illnesses, more than 16.5 million medical visits, 490,600 hospitalizations, and 34,200 deaths during the 2018–2019 influenza season. This burden was similar to estimated burden during the 2012–2013 influenza season1.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2018-2019.html

Am I allowed to *gasp* do math here or will that be considered spinning?

34,200/35,500,000 = ________________ ?