What is Andrew Luck Worth?

[EARTHQUAKE2689]

Originally Posted by CultBrennan59

Ok if I came up to you and said lets go back to the future and I'll give you the opportunity to get Peyton Manning with the first pick, but you have to give me 3 first rounders, would you do it?

Thats how people are viewing/treating this Luck kid (and pick)

How do you go BACK to the future??

[CultBrennan59]

Originally Posted by EARTHQUAKE2689

How do you go BACK to the future??

Thinking of the movie series...**Time**

[irish]

Originally Posted by Landry44

I don't think people are considering the risk with investing so much in one player. I know he's been hyped up to be a once in a generation type of player. He's going to have a lot of pressure on him to produce right away which I think he can under the right circumstances. I don't think we have the players on this team right now for him to be successful right away. The way I look at it, this team needs at least two more good drafts to be a consistent winner; not just one player. Giving up three first rounders will set us back for years even if Luck turns out to be who many believe he will be. We all know we need franchise guy to be a consistent winner. You also need quality guys around him and depth. Mortgaging away the next three drafts is not smart move when you can draft a guy and develop him. Now there are some trades that we should consider, but three first rounders is not one of them.

I totally agree. I just dont think the Skins can afford to give up so much for 1 unproven player. The biggest problem with the Skins is depth and thats built through the draft.

[irish]

Originally Posted by Lotus

I get what you are saying. If you leave out the fact that Jones is a WR, the point remains that you get what you pay for. And if you want a once-in-a-generation QB, you have to pay big.

Of course, the flip side of the Jones scenario is that the Browns have 2 first rounders this year, making it tough to outbid them if they are fervent after Luck.

How do you know he's a once in a generation QB? He does look good but that in college which may or may not translate to the pros.

[Schneed10]

Originally Posted by EARTHQUAKE2689

How do you go BACK to the future??

With this. Duh.

[REDSKINS4ever]

I admire Andrew Luck, but there is another option other than him. The Redskins can do one of two things to land the quarterback that they want. Bruce Allen and Mike Shanahan can either send the Rams their 1st and 2nd round selections in both 2012 and 2013, and a conditional pick in 2014 and take Luck. Or Allen and Shanahan can send only their 1st and 2nd rounders to the Vikings or the Colts to trade to the #2 or #3 spots and select RG3. With RG3, they still would still have to pay for the selection, but at least they won't have to sacrifice the future. With Luck, it would be totally the opposite.

[redsk1]

MS knows this team and knows we need a couple more drafts to "rebuild" our roster. Throwing away picks is a major gamble. Of course if you knew that Luck was going to be another top 5 QB in the league you would take it. The fact is you don't. Do we want to take that gamble, i'm not sure. It's a tough call.

[Lotus]

Originally Posted by irish

How do you know he's a once in a generation QB? He does look good but that in college which may or may not translate to the pros.

Of course no one KNOWS that and therein lies the rub. There's risk but also reward here. He is well worth the risk if he is a rare QB. If we trade multiple picks and he sucks, then we're screwed for a long time. Personally I'd like to take the risk.

But this is a hypothetical thread about events which likely won't happen. Most likely Tannehill becomes our QB and I'm ok with that.

[irish]

Originally Posted by Lotus

Of course no one KNOWS that and therein lies the rub. There's risk but also reward here. He is well worth the risk if he is a rare QB. If we trade multiple picks and he sucks, then we're screwed for a long time. Personally I'd like to take the risk.

But this is a hypothetical thread about events which likely won't happen. Most likely Tannehill becomes our QB and I'm ok with that.

There is risk and reward but the problem is that the loss of the draft picks is certain (100%) while the probability of the reward equalling or exceeding that loss is very small (maybe 10%). I just dont think that kind of risk to reward ratio is one any rational thinker would accept.

[Lotus]

Originally Posted by irish

There is risk and reward but the problem is that the loss of the draft picks is certain (100%) while the probability of the reward equalling or exceeding that loss is very small (maybe 10%). I just dont think that kind of risk to reward ratio is one any rational thinker would accept.

Well, if you are going to set the reward at only 10%, then you are correct that it is not worth it. Many folks see the reward at much higher than a 10% likelihood, however.

[irish]

Originally Posted by Lotus

Well, if you are going to set the reward at only 10%, then you are correct that it is not worth it. Many folks see the reward at much higher than a 10% likelihood, however.

I mean the odds of the reward paying off with respect to was is given up. So what I am saying is that the odds of him producing at a level equal to or greater than the 3 draft picks given up is 10%. Heck even if nothing is given up for him the chance he will be even a decent pro QB is maybe 40% tops.

[Hog1]

You bring up a great point Irish. How much difference would 3 first round draft picks make to any team?
.....substantial

[Landry44]

Originally Posted by irish

I totally agree. I just dont think the Skins can afford to give up so much for 1 unproven player. The biggest problem with the Skins is depth and thats built through the draft.

For years this team has tried to skip pass the building process and make huge offseason slashes weather it was in free agency or in the draft. What this team must do now the same thing we did in 2010 draft. We need to aquire as many picks as we can and get better on both sides of the ball. We don't need just one player. I also don't buy this idea that it's one qb in this draft that we must have. I love Luck and RG3, however, there are other guys in this draft if put in the right situation can get the job done.

[redsk1]

Originally Posted by Landry44

For years this team has tried to skip pass the building process and make huge offseason slashes weather it was in free agency or in the draft. What this team must do now the same thing we did in 2010 draft. We need to aquire as many picks as we can and get better on both sides of the ball. We don't need just one player. I also don't buy this idea that it's one qb in this draft that we must have. I love Luck and RG3, however, there are other guys in this draft if put in the right situation can get the job done.

You make too much sense.

It's funny how you hear the media/some fans who ranted about the previous regime but yet still want a quick fix right now.

If Tannehill or Foles impress in the combine we might be better served w/ that approach. If RG111, declares it could be interesting though. We'll know alot more after the combine though. I don't know much about Foles, but I've heard some good comments about him too.

We'll see but you are right, another draft like last year will do us well.

[Dogtag]

What is Andrew Luck worth?
I suppose the answer to that is relative: are you one super player away from greatness or 10 players away...