Vince Young overrated?

[jsarno]

Originally Posted by GTripp0012

I think that's a very reasonable guess.

There's a lot of conflicting evidence on Young to whether he will be great or not, but I'll admit it's hard to not be impressed with his intangibles thus far. Of course, intangibles don't get you anywhere if you can't throw the football, but they do tend to be telling of a guy's future success.

For now, let's just say I'm far more confident Campbell will be great than I am that Young will ever be great.

You have been making compelling arguements and are on the money with a lot of the comments.
I would like to know this, has there ever been a QB that flat out sucked his first 3 quarters and played well in the 4th before? If so who? Young's career rating is in the toilet, which means his ratings for the first 3 quarters is beyond terrible since his 4th quarter is so high. To me, it's a sign he will fall in the 4th in the future, not all of sudden do well through the rest of the game. His stats are too overwhelmingly bad to suggest otherwise. So I ask, are there any QB's that have mirrored this? Or are we in uncharted territories with Young?

About Campbell...you are DEAD on! I have a lot of confidence in Campbell. He has a strong arm, good mechanics, good release, shows spurts of great accuracy and nice touch, and he has the ability to run if need be, and he has the head for the game. He has it all if you ask me, he just needs more time under center. I already feel Campbell is better than Young.

[The Zimmermans]

john elway was a 4th quarter man, his game in the superbowl win #2 sucked ass until that last amazing drive.........also....i recall vince young beating our asses in the second half last year. Can't remember JC or leinart doing that to anyone yet

[MTK]

Actually Young doesn't suck quarters 1-3. He starts off well, slumps, then gets hot.

His QB ratings per quarter in 2007 breaks down like this:

1: 86.0
2: 50.9
3: 43.0
4: 90.9

His completion % per quarter:

1: 73.5%
2: 61.1%
3: 47.6%
4: 69.6%

[MTK]

Just for kicks here's Campbell's numbers in comparison:

QB rating per quarter:

1: 64.9
2: 111.4
3: 74.6
4: 68.3

Completion % per quarter:

1: 53.8
2: 70.7
3: 54.5
4: 51.4

[jsarno]

Originally Posted by Mattyk72

Actually Young doesn't suck quarters 1-3. He starts off well, slumps, then gets hot.

His QB ratings per quarter in 2007 breaks down like this:

1: 86.0
2: 50.9
3: 43.0
4: 90.9

His completion % per quarter:

1: 73.5%
2: 61.1%
3: 47.6%
4: 69.6%

Good post. I think we were all going off the comments about Young having a 100+ rating in the 4th quarter, which he doesn't. However, this is just 07 stats, not career. Keep in mind his career comp % is 54.6%.

Also, while he does have a 64% comp% this year, he has one of the lowest y/a in the league, meaning he's pulling a Brunell and doing mainly short passes.

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by The Zimmermans

john elway was a 4th quarter man, his game in the superbowl win #2 sucked ass until that last amazing drive.........also....i recall vince young beating our asses in the second half last year. Can't remember JC or leinart doing that to anyone yet

But isn't Elway someone who was always great? If not, give evidence that suggests he was not a great player in quarters 1-3.

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by jsarno

Good post. I think we were all going off the comments about Young having a 100+ rating in the 4th quarter, which he doesn't. However, this is just 07 stats, not career. Keep in mind his career comp % is 54.6%.

Also, while he does have a 64% comp% this year, he has one of the lowest y/a in the league, meaning he's pulling a Brunell and doing mainly short passes.

Except that Brunell's 2006 Y/A is more than a half yard better than Young's 2007.

He's actually been worse than 2006 Brunell.

[MTK]

By the way I should cite where I'm getting these numbers from

Vince Young: Situational Stats

Jason Campbell: Situational Stats

[jsarno]

Originally Posted by GTripp0012

But isn't Elway someone who was always great? If not, give evidence that suggests he was not a great player in quarters 1-3.

Good point...also, he was known as a 4th quarter comeback player. If he was down in the 4th, you knew he was going to come back to beat you. Young doesn't have that rep and I doubt he has a whole lot of those to his name. (of course he's young so time will tell)

[GMScud]

Originally Posted by Mattyk72

By the way I should cite where I'm getting these numbers from

Vince Young: Situational Stats

Jason Campbell: Situational Stats

A couple of things that bother me when looking at Campbell's stats:

-His second half rating is only 71.3, compared to 88.8 in the first half
-Also, in close games (margin of 0-7pts), his rating is only 68.6.
-In the 4th quarter he's only got a 68.3 rating
-In the 4th quarter with a lead of 7 or less it's only 59.9

Now granted we've only played 5 games and this isn't really an accurate measuring stick yet, but I don't like those numbers.

As far as VY is concerned, I think his rookie of the year award was deserving, and he led the Titans to a great second half last year. He's a winner and a leader, and I'm definitely not read to call him overrated.

[jsarno]

Originally Posted by GTripp0012

Except that Brunell's 2006 Y/A is more than a half yard better than Young's 2007.

He's actually been worse than 2006 Brunell.

That's actually funny. I didn't look those stats up to make that connection, and we all we PISSED at Brunell for doing so poorly last year too.

Good post.

[jsarno]

Originally Posted by GMScud

A couple of things that bother me when looking at Campbell's stats:

-His second half rating is only 71.3, compared to 88.8 in the first half
-Also, in close games (margin of 0-7pts), his rating is only 68.6.
-In the 4th quarter he's only got a 68.3 rating
-In the 4th quarter with a lead of 7 or less it's only 59.9

Now granted we've only played 5 games and this isn't really an accurate measuring stick yet, but I don't like those numbers.

Those are valid concerns, but you need to remember that Gibbs has taken the control out of Campbell's hands in those situations (for the most part). He's getting more and more confidence with the coaching staff, and as that happens, he will no longer HAVE to throw 3rd and longs most of the time in the 4th, he'll be getting chances to throw on 1st and 2nd downs too. I think those numbers are just too incomplete for him at this point because up until VERY recently he has not been the man Gibbs has wanted with the ball come the end of the game.

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by jsarno

That's actually funny. I didn't look those stats up to make that connection, and we all we PISSED at Brunell for doing so poorly last year too.

Good post.

Course if Brunell had the ability to run like Young can, I'm not sure we'd be having these types of memories, lol.

[GMScud]

Originally Posted by jsarno

Those are valid concerns, but you need to remember that Gibbs has taken the control out of Campbell's hands in those situations (for the most part). He's getting more and more confidence with the coaching staff, and as that happens, he will no longer HAVE to throw 3rd and longs most of the time in the 4th, he'll be getting chances to throw on 1st and 2nd downs too. I think those numbers are just too incomplete for him at this point because up until VERY recently he has not been the man Gibbs has wanted with the ball come the end of the game.

I agree completely. Notice my disclaimer about only playing 5 games. Also, in a post I just made in the Jason "Red Zone" Cambpell thread, I also pointed out how he's gaining confidence in the eyes of the coaches. I was just saying that as of now, those #'s don't look too great.

Sometimes statistics are overrated, sometimes they aren't.

[RobH4413]

Originally Posted by GMScud

I agree completely. Notice my disclaimer about only playing 5 games. Also, in a post I just made in the Jason "Red Zone" Cambpell thread, I also pointed out how he's gaining confidence in the eyes of the coaches. I was just saying that as of now, those #'s don't look too great.

Sometimes statistics are overrated, sometimes they aren't.

The shorter the data, the more useless the statistics are.

As far as JC's stats. This is a small window... I'd be curious to see a nice graph showing his progress. Maybe I'll get bored and make one...