Tebow or McCoy?

[tryfuhl]

While I think that Tebow could end up being the bigger surprise I'll go with the proven. Don't care how much Tebow "wants it"

Whoever we get he better be good!

[CRedskinsRule]

Gtripp can you give performances ranges that define elite/strong/above average in the various categories?

[Eknox]

I'd take McCoy, we can't afford to gamble on either but I'd take a traditional QB that doesn't have to change his throwing motion on our dime and a media circus to follow, to me Tebow would be a wasted pick for us, if we were a team like the Colts, Patriots, Chargers teams that can afford a 2nd round gamble like that, then I'd be all for it..GO McCOY

[NYCskinfan82]

Originally Posted by Eknox

I'd take McCoy, we can't afford to gamble on either but I'd take a traditional QB that doesn't have to change his throwing motion on our dime and a media circus to follow, to me Tebow would be a wasted pick for us, if we were a team like the Colts, Patriots, Chargers teams that can afford a 2nd round gamble like that, then I'd be all for it..GO McCOY

Couldn't have said it better myself.

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by CRedskinsRule

Gtripp can you give performances ranges that define elite/strong/above average in the various categories?

I can give you my baselines for averages and medians:

All data includes drafted players since 2005.

QB Starts - median 33, average 32
Completion percentage* - median 61%, average 61%

*(the average of players expected to be drafted in this class is actually pushing 64%. I split the difference and used 62.5% because of the possibility that the spread concepts behind this increase are here to stay, and the possibility that this is just a strong class).

TD Rate - 5.86%
INT rate - 2.64%
Sack Rate* - median 5.8%, average 6.0%

*(This class is median 5.2%, average 5.0%. I used these baselines instead of the historically higher ones)

Career deviation was literally the standard deviation of the spread of values over the four years of a players college eligibility, with passing attempts per year determining the value. 12 was the average, although, I don't really have anyway to make that number meaningful. I don't think variance is inherently bad: it's bad in highly rated prospects, but good in lower rated prospects.

Bradford's numbers are really completely off all the charts, but his career path was highly unorthodox and his incredible TD/INT rate is unlikely to translate anyway.

[GTripp0012]

Within about one point of the median value, a player was average. Within about two points, above or below average. Outside of four points/values from the median/mean, strong or weak, and elite players were among the best two or three ever in that statistical recording since 2005.

All statistics are college statistics. Pro success/failures had no relevance in my analysis.

[SBXVII]

I'll take one hell of a trade in order to get Bradford next year. If we try any and all possible trade scenarios and the option is too expensive then I think I still like McCoy over Clausen. Reports were he was the next best in accuracy. His arm strength was not as good as Bradfords or Clausen but we have arm strength in JC and the new Vet. We need accuracy.

[GTripp0012]

I think if you protect Campbell, you'll get really good accuracy. That's really all that was different in 2008.

Let him get hit all day long and, well, yeah, his mechanics go to hell. And then you get crappy accuracy like in 2009.

[tryfuhl]

Originally Posted by GTripp0012

I think if you protect Campbell, you'll get really good accuracy. That's really all that was different in 2008.

Let him get hit all day long and, well, yeah, his mechanics go to hell. And then you get crappy accuracy like in 2009.

I'll be interested to see how jumpy he is this year. Guy sure did stay on his toes knowing that he had to run for his life at any given moment.. was pretty obvious his knees (at least) were bothering him too.

[GTripp0012]

Theres' something to be said for making a 2 pt jump in completion percentage without drastically changing how deep the average pass is being thrown and all the while regressing in terms of accuracy. What, exactly, that says I'm really not sure.

It could be as simple as a propensity to take more sacks.

[wolfeskins]

Originally Posted by dmek25

Tebow. to me, McCoy is a Brennen clone. not sure if Tebow can make the transition. but the guy is a winner. there is something to be said for that

i completely agree with you. there's just something special about tebow. too me, he's got that "it factor" we always hear about.

[SBXVII]

Originally Posted by GTripp0012

I think if you protect Campbell, you'll get really good accuracy. That's really all that was different in 2008.

Let him get hit all day long and, well, yeah, his mechanics go to hell. And then you get crappy accuracy like in 2009.

I think there were more issues then his accuracy. I will agree with you on the fact that no QB will do well with out protection.

JC has had 5 yrs. He's shown little improvement. There is not another position on this team that would be getting 5 yrs of mediocre talent with out getting traded or cut. Hell some of you are already done with Thomas and Kelly.

Did JC's 08 season start out well looking to be a Pro Bowl season and possible MVP? Yes. Then our OL did break down and other teams figured out how to beat JC. Find a way to disquise the rush and confuse the hell out of him prior to the snap and he's done.

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by SBXVII

I think there were more issues then his accuracy. I will agree with you on the fact that no QB will do well with out protection.

JC has had 5 yrs. He's shown little improvement. There is not another position on this team that would be getting 5 yrs of mediocre talent with out getting traded or cut. Hell some of you are already done with Thomas and Kelly.

Did JC's 08 season start out well looking to be a Pro Bowl season and possible MVP? Yes. Then our OL did break down and other teams figured out how to beat JC. Find a way to disquise the rush and confuse the hell out of him prior to the snap and he's done.

Two back to back falsehoods there, although the latter is dependent on the former falsehood.

In general, I agree with your conclusion that we're screwed if the defense we're playing can be creative enough to attack from all different angles, and you're stuck doing the same vanilla blocking because the team isn't healthy enough to practice blocking schemes as a unit for the upcoming week. That pretty much kills any vertical attack that an offense featuring our receivers may have.

[GusFrerotte]

Still think folks are too enamored with these guys. All, but Clausen come from big time programs, stacked with talent, that take on average to below average opponents 90% of the time. When the hype machine is working on overtime for a player, I think the red flags need to automatically come out with recent draft history as our guide. THe only hyped up QBs during the draft in say the last what 10-15 years to produce a Lombardi both were named Manning. McNabb came close, but no cigar. Still, my point is the percentage of these overhyped college QBs making it isn't so hot. You mean to tell me all of a sudden at his pro day Tebow improved his mechanics? Bradford looked like a god at his? Sorry folks, I do watch college football. Tebow looks more like a game manager than a real QB when I watched him in the big games, and that is what he will be facing just about every week in the NFL in the age of parity. Bradford is the only one that has a real good shot at franchise status, but he too benefitted from playing on a stacked team in a conference that had a down year overall(TX ran away with it) and not known for solid defensive play. As for Clausen, he did play on a decent team, that underachieved, and ND kindly declined the bowl bid(the honorable thing to do). If anybody wants Clausen, might as well look at Lefevour, Stull, Kafka, Crompton, etc. I mean seriously. Shuler was the #1 stud and we got Frerotte in the seventh. Who ended up being the starter and making the pro bowl? Limiting ourselves to just the QBs that garner the headlines because they are on bigtime programs is absurd and can hurt us in the quest for a true franchise QB.

[GusFrerotte]

Originally Posted by wolfeskins

i completely agree with you. there's just something special about tebow. too me, he's got that "it factor" we always hear about.

Don't believe the hype. They thought Carr and Harrington were the shit. Don't get me going about Leinart!!!!!! Tebow is only great when playing the likes of Vandy, OLe Miss, or Florida Atlantic. Other than that he is an above average QB.