North Korea: Threat or Blackmailer?

[Chico23231]

The key to North Korea is China and its always been. Believe me, we are not doing a thing unless we get their permission...that goes for any Repubs or Dems in power. We been trying to ride out Kim's health, but the dude seems to have Castro-like staying power to avoid purgatory. I think no one will do a thing and this will just continue like it always has...N.Korea loves the attention, but they know they are in for an ass kicking from China and Us if they try to denonate any bomb...

[Schneed10]

Originally Posted by CRedskinsRule

Thought I would revive this. Even China is getting tired of North Korea's antics:

BreakingNews

Update: China complains formally over shooting of 3 citizens by NKorean guard, an unusual move for the close allies-BBC
about 3 hours ago via breakingnews.com

BBC News - North Korean border guard 'shoots three Chinese dead'

Is North Korea so close to the brink that they just don't care at this point, or is it still all political gamesmanship. At this point I don't think I would be shocked if they tried a land grab irrationally rationalizing:
a) they could get to Seoul with the element of surprise.
b) china would defend their airspace if push came to shove
c) as a last resort they have the threat of nuking Japan if we intervene.

Granted they have been nearly all bark for the last decade, but is it possible at some point their dear leader just puts all his cards in and goes for it?

I don't think so. Any invasion of South Korea would be met with significant resistance from the US, and with them as the aggressors and us as the defenders of little South Korea, we would retain all moral high ground.

China is interested in maintaining a good relationship with the US. They like us for trade purposes, they don't want to get into a gigantic war with us (who does), and they hold a ton of our bonds. If they get into a war with us, where they defend the North Korean aggressors, it gives us all the reason in the world to wipe that debt right off the books. Our nation's credit rating wouldn't even take a hit because of the circumstances and the moral high ground.

North Korea talks a big game but ultimately they will do what's in their own best interests. They don't feel real secure with Japan and its Navy just to the East, the American-defended South Koreans just to the South, and the growing American partnership with China. Kim Jong Il is paranoid, and puts on shows of force with his occasional missile launches. But in the end I think he's more rational than people give him credit for. He's an evil bastard for sure, but he still knows what's in his own best interests. If he invades S Korea he has to commit his forces to the invasion, the US and Japan will bomb him from across the water, and China will be forced to sit and watch.

The real threat is that he'd supply terrorists with nuclear weaponry in an attempt to attack our homeland covertly.

[over the mountain]

Some interesting side bars about Kim, sr.

- he is a huge hollywood fan. he has a private movie theater where he will watch hollywood movies.

- back in the 50's or 60s, when tension btw NK and the US was pretty high, the US president at the time invited him to visit america. he came and was more interested in partying with celebrities. he ened up here for over a month iirc, traveling around the country.

- hes a huge elvis fan

freak i forgot the rest. i read an article from the washingotn post about him a year ago where it talked aobut his tour of the US, etc. real interesting article.

like credskins said, it seems NK is reaching the end of their ability to survive as an isolated cmmunist republic. i read that now, even ranking officials in the military are going hungry.

will NK go the route of the former soviet union or will they go out in blaze of glory?

[joethiesmanfan]

South Korea nor North Korea want to destroy their country. I predict unification sooner than later. They are not stupid. Fighting over what?

[GusFrerotte]

It is bluster for the most part. Yeah, the N Korean Army is huge, etc, but the S Koreans have more missiles, more advanced fighters(and more of them), and more importantly more allies than the North does. The North has the bomb now? So what!! What happens if the beloved dictator drops a nuke on Seoul or even worse US troops there? We would nuke the entire nation and put them half starved N Korean troops out of their misery real quick. I mean face it, most of the N Korean conventional arsenal is Soviet handme downs, which in the face of fifth generation US technology is really uselsss, ala the supposedly vaunted Iraqi armed forces of 1990-91. A war with the North would be dumb, as although we would win, the casualties among the Koreans on both sides of the 38th parallel would be initially horrendous if the North did use the bomb or just executed a massive invasion of the South if it felt its back against the wall.

[CRedskinsRule]

Had to revive this again. First any time a Trample thread can be revived, that's a good thing, and second:

One day they are going to say/do something, and it's not going to end well for them:

Furious over sanctions, NKorea vows to nuke US - Yahoo! News

"Now our enemies are trying to make additional sanctions against us, but we can never accept this," said Ri Kum Il, a Pyongyang citizen at the rally. "We will make a preemptive nuclear attack against our enemies wherever they are and turn their strongholds into a sea of flames."

ok Ri, but if you start a fire, you probably will get burned.

[Alvin Walton]

Yes they certainly have been getting riled up lately.
Sanctions and our war games have really annoyed them.
Seems like they are more mad at us then actually South Korea.
I think they will have to actually invade or do a lot of shooting towards the south for us to really do anything.

[CRedskinsRule]

I guess the question is, could they manage to lob a nuke at Japan. I doubt they send one to SK, to close, and if they fired one off at us, they have to know it would be an act in futility, but if they lobbed it at Japan, they(being crazy) may think it strengthens their negotiation position.

[Alvin Walton]

Originally Posted by CRedskinsRule

I guess the question is, could they manage to lob a nuke at Japan. I doubt they send one to SK, to close, and if they fired one off at us, they have to know it would be an act in futility, but if they lobbed it at Japan, they(being crazy) may think it strengthens their negotiation position.

If they nuke Japan they will be come the next Iraq.
Except this time we'll get a lot more help.

If they nuked us it would go even worse for them as we would most likely occupy them for the next 80 years while reuniting with the south.

I dont think they are so dumb to think that an action like that will lift their sanctions.

[Chico23231]

nobody rattles the saber these days like DPRK. China would never let them fire a nuclear missle at us...all talk. My big problem with them is trading nuclear arms with terrorists groups.

[CRedskinsRule]

I think that if they feel isolated enough, and China apparently helped draft this newest sanction, they will reach out more to Iran, and Japan becomes a very effective "don't tread on me message". I'm not saying it will happen, but only that they could see a path where Iran feeds them nuclear material, and trade, and bolstered by that relationship they think they can get away with a nuke on Japan. It would not be the first time a closed regime misunderstood the way US policy gets made.

[HailGreen28]

Originally Posted by CRedskinsRule

"Now our enemies are trying to make additional sanctions against us, but we can never accept this," said Ri Kum Il, a Pyongyang citizen at the rally. "We will make a preemptive nuclear attack against our enemies wherever they are and turn their strongholds into a sea of flames."

Someone should have asked him: "What about decades of Juche? Was that all a lie to the people of NK?"

In the thread title I'd vote: Other. It's a tragedy.

[firstdown]

[QUOTE=Chico23231;996775]nobody rattles the saber these days like DPRK. China would never let them fire a nuclear missle at us...all talk. My big problem with them is trading nuclear arms with terrorists groups.[/QUOTE]

I'd say that's everyones biggest fear.

[JoeRedskin]

Young inexperienced leader. Established military bureaucracy. Closed political system in which dissent is punished and information closely controlled. Economic dependency. Nine million active and active reserve army (1M active; 8M, active reserve).

Bad things my friends. Bad things.

[Alvin Walton]

Lots of 'em no doubt.
How professional they are is the question.

■The Reserve Military Training Unit consist of approximately 1.7 million persons (men 17-45 and unmarried women 17-30) who are not either in active duty or important rear area personnel. They are mobilized under supervision of provincial military units, for a total of forty days' training out of the year.
■The Worker-Peasant Militia is a combination of older men aged 45-60, along with men ages 17-45 and unmarried women ages 17-30 who are not included in Reserve Military Training Unit. They train for a total of thirty days out of the year. Their current numbers stand at 4.1 million.
■The Young Red Guards consist of 1.2 million male and female Higher Middle (High) School students aged 14-16. They are subject to a mandatory four-hour drill session every Saturday and a total of 160 hours of on-campus drills annually. A total of 450 hours of off-campus training is also mandatory.


Reserve Military Training Unit form the core of the reserves and are under the command of the Ministry of Defense in peace AND in wartime. Party Civil Defense Departments keep track of the Worker-Peasant Militia and the Young Red Guards in peace time, but the Ministry of Defense in contingencies.

Korean People's Army