Jason Campbell Future Pro Bowl QB

[SouperMeister]

Originally Posted by warriorzpath

The biggest problem with Jason Campbell right now is that he tightens up at the end of games. Don't get me wrong, I think he is THE qb for the team - but great qbs take the games at the end. Until he gets pass this, he cannot lead the team to championship games. The team will follow his lead; if the team doesn't trust him at the end of games - the team will also not play well at the end of the games.

I am a big fan of Jason Campbell, but I just want to see him get better and improve. Part of it is trying to prepare for these game-ending situations in practice and the other part is Campbell's will to win at the end.

I don't know that he hasn't done quite well in some games during crunch time. Campbell made some outstanding throws to give us a chance at the goal line against the Giants. He also made a great throw that McCardell bobbled that might have jumpstarted a winning drive against Philly. His TD throw to Cooley at the end of the half of the first Philly game was suberb. He converted a HUGE third down to Cooley while facing a blitz in OT vs. Miami. There are definite examples where Campbell has produced at crunch time. I wouldn't call myself part of the Kool-aid crowd, but I'm drinking whatever is being served when it comes to Campbell.

[LaRon + Sean = Hell 4 U]

After Marcus Spears comments on the team & Campbell I hope he shows everyone he is the real deal and throws for 300 yards on the Cowgirls.

[Redskin334]

Jason has a unbelieveable arm very good accuracy I see him being in the league for a while.

[GTripp0012]

Which QBs would better the Skins offense right now?

Using FO's DVOA ratings as my guide, I decided to take a list of all QBs who have better stats than Campbell, and list them, then subjectively adjusting it for his lack of oppertunities, and comparing him to where we'd all thought he'd be at this point.

Players ordered by DVOA (QB rating in parenthesis):

Brady (131.8)
Garrard (102.9)
Anderson (90.7)
Manning (90.8)
Romo (103.3)
Garcia (95.5)
Favre (96.2)
Palmer (91.1)
Roethlisberger (110.2)
Cutler (84.8)
Rosenfels* (N/A)
Brees (84.8)
Delhomme* (N/A)
Warner (86.2)
Schaub (85.0)
Hasselbeck (89.3)
McNabb (91.7)
Harrington (81.0)
Jason Campbell (79.9)
Kitna (92.9)

Why does DVOA differ from QB rating so much?Touchdowns, basically. This is most applicable in the case of Roethlisberger and Manning this year. QB rating rewards QBs with 100% of the credit for all passing TDs, where as DVOA gives a fraction of the credit depending on the length of the pass. A first and goal TD pass off play action from the one is worth the same as a 4th down TD pass from midfield for QB rating, but have very different values for DVOA (and...in reality).

I'm removing two guys from this list--one is irrelivant due to season ending injury, and the other is the 2nd Texans QB with a higher rank than Campbell. With them, Campbell ranks 19th, coincidently exactly where QB rating has him.

I'm also projecting Campbell to move ahead of McNabb and Harrington, while staying ahead of Kitna. My reasoning for this is that McNabb has never been particularly statstically impressive, and Harrington is a historically bad QB having an aberration year. So eliminating 2 guys from this list and sliding JC up two spots leads me to rank him as the 15th best QB in the league, behind:

Brady (131.8)
Garrard (102.9)
Anderson (90.7)
Manning (90.8)
Romo (103.3)
Garcia (95.5)
Favre (96.2)
Palmer (91.1)
Roethlisberger (110.2)
Cutler (84.8)
Brees (84.8)
Warner (86.2)
Schaub (85.0)
Hasselbeck (89.3)
Jason Campbell (79.9)

So in essence, my argument is that Jason Campbell is ALREADY a top 15 NFL passer this year and will only get better with time, especially over the next two seasons.

Just a little statstical optimism to throw on top of the rest of this thread.

[GTripp0012]

Just an aside, the notion that Jon Kitna is actually good is evidence of one of the biggest flaws of QB rating. Jon Kitna is average, at best, and makes critical and inexcusable mistakes at times (see: Rogers' pick six).

[Redskin Warrior]

Campbell is great QB I wouldn't want to have anybody else at QB. He can run when it wants to and has a hell of a arm.