John Clayton on the Redskins' Playoff Chances

[redskins411]

Originally Posted by TheSmurfs22

It is fun to read these predictions but the truth is it long season and there are so many things out of the team's control that who knows what may happen. I doubt any of us thought this time last year that the Cards would be playing in the Superbowl.

It is indeed a long season. We averaged 20.6 points in the first eight games of the season last year and 12.5 in the last eight games of the season. Maybe this is where John Clayton got his 21 points from...

[GTripp0012]

If we add 5 PPG and Zorn doesn't change his philosophy to do so, that would mean we would have a top 5 offense, a top 10 defense, and we would win 13 games without breaking a sweat.

So 21 PPG is by no means some magic mark that we have to make. At 19 PPG, this is a playoff team. That's just over 300 points in a season. And the defense and special teams might actually contribute as well this year.

[Lotus]

Originally Posted by GTripp0012

If we add 5 PPG and Zorn doesn't change his philosophy to do so, that would mean we would have a top 5 offense, a top 10 defense, and we would win 13 games without breaking a sweat.

So 21 PPG is by no means some magic mark that we have to make. At 19 PPG, this is a playoff team. That's just over 300 points in a season. And the defense and special teams might actually contribute as well this year.

I agree. The 21 ppg mark is arbitrary and, as much as I'd like to score 21 ppg, we can win many games scoring less.

I also agree with the comments above about the red zone offense. That really needs fixing. If Cooley has the red zone TD's that he should have (but didn't last year), the Redskins are a much better team.

[Monksdown]

5 ppg totally rests with Jason's throwing arm and Clinton's health. We haven't done anything to help them.

So, i think we're a contender, but not a favorite to make the playoffs.

[53Fan]

Suisham had a down year last year and if we only get 1 more fieldgoal a game that puts our average at 19.6. Zorn has worked on the redzone offense extensively this year and Fred Davis will actually contribute. Our offense will be better this year and score more points and our defense could realistically become "elite". Cooley will get more TD's and Thomas and Kelly will contribute. Yes, we're going to the playoffs.

[Schneed10]

Originally Posted by 53Fan

Suisham had a down year last year and if we only get 1 more fieldgoal a game that puts our average at 19.6. Zorn has worked on the redzone offense extensively this year and Fred Davis will actually contribute. Our offense will be better this year and score more points and our defense could realistically become "elite". Cooley will get more TD's and Thomas and Kelly will contribute. Yes, we're going to the playoffs.

Suisham didn't miss 16 FGs beyond his normal miss rate. The best answer is to convert red zone opportunities into TDs, and leave Suisham on the sideline.

[53Fan]

Originally Posted by Schneed10

Suisham didn't miss 16 FGs beyond his normal miss rate. The best answer is to convert red zone opportunities into TDs, and leave Suisham on the sideline.

I agree and think we'll do a lot better in the redzone this year. I also expect Suisham to have a better year. I think we can expect at least 3 more points per game than last year.

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by Schneed10

Suisham didn't miss 16 FGs beyond his normal miss rate. The best answer is to convert red zone opportunities into TDs, and leave Suisham on the sideline.

But there were at least 10-12 reasonably makeable FG situations that were passed on because the game situation dictated that 3 points wouldn't have changed the outcome.

Ergo, projecting an increase of 30-45 points due to improvements in the results of FG games is realistic. However, then any increase in the Touchdown projections would be worth 4 points per, because we can't double count the game situations in which we came away with zero points. We can add 3 points in those situations with no theoretical improvement, or 7 points with a small theoretical improvement, but under no situation can those be 10 point situations.

The bottom line is that a progression to the mean based on last year's talent should yield about 19 PPG. To get up to 21, and get those 6-7 extra touchdowns out of those FG attempts, the offense has to improve situationally, both in the red zone, and in the 30+ yd play categories.

I think we can extrapolate that if the offense simply isn't worse than last year, we're dealing with a playoff team. If it progresses just by 2-3 PPG (on top of the 2.5 PPG progression to mean yardage totals), we're talking about a SB contender. 2-3 PPG won't be easy though, and if we start trading in additional turnovers for points, we're going to cost ourselves more wins than the points will gain us.

[GTripp0012]

To put the ^^^ in more sensable terms, there were situations in both our wins (think Dallas I) and losses (think Pittsburgh) where easy points were just left on the table by Zorn's coaching decisions in order to increase the chances that we win the game. In the second half against Pittburgh, we went for the end zone twice from the red zone trying to chase the points, passing up two field goal oppertunities that the offense had earned. Against Dallas, we gave up on a chance to punch in a TD up by 8 so that we could be certain to make it a two possession game. However, we cost ourselves 4 points by doing so, but we put Dallas in a situation where grabbing an onside kick was a necessity to have enough chances to win the game.

That's ten points in just 1/8 of the season that the game situation cost us, and certainly, not the only examples.

[53Fan]

Originally Posted by GTripp0012

To put the ^^^ in more sensable terms, there were situations in both our wins (think Dallas I) and losses (think Pittsburgh) where easy points were just left on the table by Zorn's coaching decisions in order to increase the chances that we win the game. In the second half against Pittburgh, we went for the end zone twice from the red zone trying to chase the points, passing up two field goal oppertunities that the offense had earned. Against Dallas, we gave up on a chance to punch in a TD up by 8 so that we could be certain to make it a two possession game. However, we cost ourselves 4 points by doing so, but we put Dallas in a situation where grabbing an onside kick was a necessity to have enough chances to win the game.

That's ten points in just 1/8 of the season that the game situation cost us, and certainly, not the only examples.

Good point GTripp. I would be very, very surprised if we don't score more points this year than last.

[Hamoskinz]

Second guessing whether we should have kicked a field or go for a TD is a bit too far but certainly the fact that we had great field positions last year from turnovers and good KRs but couldn't score in the red zone is an area we have been trying to improve without any noticeable change. The 21 ppg target rests largely on JC whether he takes more chances but also on our receivers running better routes than last year (routes that were well short of the 1st on 3rd downs).

[Stuck in TX]

I like Clayton's take on our chances. What I really love about it though, was that it was not over the top. Every year there is a team that is overhyped at nausea call me superstitious, but it usually means that team does not do as well. Last season it was the freakin Cowboys. Who in the world saw the Cardinals coming? The year before it was the Saints... no one was talking about he Giants. This year it is the Texans, and maybe the Falcons. Keep talking everyone... but we all know defense wins championships. We had a top ten defense last year and have abandoned the "ain't broke don't fix it" slogan and turned our Porsche into a Lamborghini... We need to continue to fly under the radar and catch them all by surprise!

[Paintrain]

I don't want to re-hash some of the same things that have been said but I will point out a few overlooked factors:

1. Defensive TD-We haven't scored on defense since October 2007, ironically on a Carlos Rogers INT return, and have been one of the worst teams in that regard over the past decade. While he will give up the occasional big play, D. Hall has more potential to turn the field over than anyone we've had since Champ. While we can't count on a TD per game, if we get one per quarter of the season that will win us a game or two.

2. The addition of Hunter Smith. His value in the field position game will have a positive impact on the defense which should again, improve the offense by proxy. His biggest impact however may be in the holding position. While I am not a big Suisham fan, he was undone a little last year with Brooks and Plackemier, who were both largely clueless as holders. I've never liked a punter as a holder but at least he's done it and done it with some accomplished kickers (Vanderjagt, Vinatieri) so hopefully Suisham's percentage will improve.

3. We left a ton of points on the field last year. We were one of the worst in the red zone and just by quick recollection we missed out on at least 6 TD (2 Rabach penalties on the same drive nullifying TD passes, Thomas TD called back vs. Arizona, Sellers stuffed, then fumbles next play vs. Cincy, Sellers dropped TD pass vs. Seattle) that could have increased our PPG. We have to execute better but I'd expect increased comfort and experience in the system will allow our guys to do more playing rather than thinking and playing.

[Zerohero]

Originally Posted by Paintrain

1. Defensive TD-We haven't scored on defense since October 2007, ironically on a Carlos Rogers INT return, and have been one of the worst teams in that regard over the past decade. While he will give up the occasional big play, D. Hall has more potential to turn the field over than anyone we've had since Champ. While we can't count on a TD per game, if we get one per quarter of the season that will win us a game or two.

This a million times, we have such a good defense but just a few def touchdowns would help so much.

[Lotus]

Originally Posted by Zerohero

This a million times, we have such a good defense but just a few def touchdowns would help so much.

Defensive TD's come some by skill (catch the ball, Carlos!) but some by luck.

The law of averages at some point will come into play and we'll be getting more defensive TD's.