Better Rookie Season Stats Griffin or Luck?

[30gut]

Originally Posted by REDSKINS4ever

Many NFL analysts are predicting that Andrew Luck will show flashes of greatness as a rookie NFL quarterback, but he's also going to struggle because of the lack of play makers that he has around him. The Colts cleaned house in the offseason in an attempt to start over and build around Luck. They didn't bring back a lot of offensive players who were vital to the team's offensive production in recent seasons.

Sure the Colts lost some pieces but they've also retained and added some pieces.
Lets not forget they retained their best WR in Reggie Wayne a true #1 WR.
They also have Austin Collie returning who had more catches then our #2 and 3 WRs.
They also return their leading rusher in Donald Brown.
Yes, the Colts lost Jacob Tamme and aging/injured Dallas Clark but one could argue that drafting the 2 best TE prospects is an upgrade at that position.
(especially considering the built in chemistry between Fleener and Luck)
The also added Samson Satele at Center, Winston Justice OG/OL and return 2nd round OG/OT Ben Ijalana from injury.
Imo when you really look at the Colts additions and subtractions the only area where they lost without a replacement is Piere Garcon.

[SirClintonPortis]

Originally Posted by 30gut

Sure the Colts lost some pieces but they've also retained and added some pieces.
Lets not forget they retained their best WR in Reggie Wayne a true #1 WR.
They also have Austin Collie returning who had more catches then our #2 and 3 WRs.
They also return their leading rusher in Donald Brown.
Yes, the Colts lost Jacob Tamme and aging/injured Dallas Clark but one could argue that drafting the 2 best TE prospects is an upgrade at that position.
(especially considering the built in chemistry between Fleener and Luck)
The also added Samson Satele at Center, Winston Justice OG/OL and return 2nd round OG/OT Ben Ijalana from injury.
Imo when you really look at the Colts additions and subtractions the only area where they lost without a replacement is Piere Garcon.

At the very least, I suspect small sample size might be overstating Donald Brown's "prowess" measure used here, which is YPC. One 80 yard run is the difference between him being a 4.2 YPC guy and a 4.8 YPC guy.

Wayne is definitely more established than any of our guys.
Collie is questionable, because he got targets, but he didn't get a lot of yards.
Justice is also questionable. Yes, he's better than what he was earlier in his career, but is he really even that good still?

[30gut]

Originally Posted by SirClintonPortis

At the very least, I suspect small sample size might be overstating Donald Brown's "prowess" measure used here, which is YPC. One 80 yard run is the difference between him being a 4.2 YPC guy and a 4.8 YPC guy.

To be clear where have I touted Brown's 'prowess' or used his YPC to suggest something about his ability?

My point was that the Colts running game is on par with our own and posted the stats of both lead backs.
The same sample size and YPC issues that you ding Brown on are equally true for our own backs (Helu and Royster).

I don't see how these statistical quibbles makes the Colts running game inferior to our own, which seems to be your suggestion?

Wayne is definitely more established than any of our guys.
Collie is questionable, because he got targets, but he didn't get a lot of yards.
Justice is also questionable. es, he's better than what he was earlier in his career, but is he really even that good still?

Sure Collie is questionable but by the same token so are Morgan and Hankerson.
They're all complimentary players.
But the Colts have a true #1 WR and a couple good TEs throw in some complimentary WRs (Collie, Hilton?) its a good enough unit to field a producitve passing offense.
Its not unlike the pieces/forumula of the Patriots and Panthers passing offenses.
The point is the Colts passing game isn't as talented depleted as people suggest.

Sure Justice is questionable but again if we're being objective Lichtensteiger and Jammal Brown would certainly be questionable as well.
And Justice was the least of their OL additions/improvements.

If we're going take a critical look at their talent then we should also be objective about our own talent.

[30gut]

Originally Posted by The Goat

Well reasoned and convincing; however, Shanny still has to be given the benefit of the doubt can put together a serious rushing attack, and probably gives us the edge on that one.

Oh, I agree:

Originally Posted by me

Running game: Push
I give us the slight edge because of scheme...

Originally Posted by Goat

The bigger question is whether we'll (finally) see his offense (what I want) instead of Kyle's past first, second and third offense (bit o sarcasm). Anybody who says we've had a balanced attack isn't paying attention...hopefully this is the year.

I also favor a more traditional Mike Shanahan Denver WCO or a run balanced version of the Texans offense.
And you're right about Kyle's pass focus, however; its a quibble over style.

My gripe about Kyle's pass first nature wasn't due to style but of function.
I didn't believe we had the pieces at QB/WR to execute a functional pass heavy offense and the results support this thought.
But, the additions at WR and our main man Griffin finally give Kyle the pieces to produce a functional pass 1st offense.
I don't expect Kyle to become more balanced now that he has weapons.
My guess is that Griffin attempts somewhere in the ballpark of 550 passes this year.

[Dirtbag59]

This should help RG3 in his quest to outduel Luck
NFL - Rookie adjustments over, expect leap from Jake Locker, others - ESPN

Leonard Hankerson, WR, Redskins
I thought Hankerson was just about to really get it going last year when a hip injury derailed his season. While the Redskins went out and made several moves at wide receiver, I think Hankerson could put up big numbers as a down-the-field threat in Mike Shanahan's offense. He's a bigger target, something this offense lacks otherwise, outside of tight end Fred Davis.

[skinster]

Griffin will be my favorite player of all time (sorry sean...rip)...how can I say Luck when this question is so open ended?

[30gut]

Originally Posted by skinster

...how can I say Luck when this question is so open ended?

Keep in mind that it hard to fit the theme of an entire thread into a thread title without simplifying.

I know its naive to rely on people actually reading the OP but there is little alternative a title is simple too brief to convey the thought/theme expressed in the OP for the thread.

But also how is question in the thread title so open ended?
Its asking specifically about statistical performance which is pretty much cut and dry its not asking for a vague undefined value judgement like 'which QB is better'


BTW-What does Griffin being your potential favorite player have to do with an objective opinion about projected statistical performance.

[30gut]

Originally Posted by Bucky Brooks

Andrew Luck-led Colts will be much better than you think in 2012

Andrew Luck-led Colts will be much better than you think in 2012 - NFL.com

[MTK]

I do like the rookie TE's they added, but they'll be facing a learning curve along with Luck. What are realistic expectations for the Colts? I'd say 5-6 wins.

[firstdown]

Originally Posted by 30gut

First and foremost I want the Redskins to win more games this year but I have to admit a strong secondary desire: I want Griffin to post better offensive numbers then Luck.

At first I was confident that Griffin's superior production was a certainity because of my perceptions of the Colts offense.

But, after looking the Colts draft, offseason moves and returning players I'm not as certain that Griff will put up better stats then Luck.

Follow on questions not included in the Title:

Which teams has better offensive weapons? Us or the Colts?

What rookie season stats do you think Griffin and Luck will post?

What type of rookie season production does Luck need to justify the 'best prospect since' hype? (60.0%--4,051yds--7.8ypa--21 TDs--17 Ints--84.5 Rating +706 rush yds--14 rush TDs)

A rookie season does not make or break a QB. If it did then some of the best to play the game would have never gone on to become great.

[30gut]

Originally Posted by firstdown

A rookie season does not make or break a QB.

Very true and patently obvious.
But you're creating a maybe unintentional strawman.
I certainly haven't said that a rookie season makes or breaks a QB and I don't think anyone else in this thread has...

Any thoughts on which QB (Luck or Griffin) has better stats in their non-career predicitve/non-make or break rookie season?

or

Which teams has better offensive weapons? Us or the Colts?

or

What type of rookie season production does Luck need to justify the 'best prospect since' hype?

[30gut]

Originally Posted by Mattyk

What are realistic expectations for the Colts? I'd say 5-6 wins.

I can't remember where but last week on the radio I heard that Vegas had the Colts 6-10, I feel pretty good about the Burgundy and Gold chances to have a better record then 6-10.

But, I guess I'm the only one that admits that I not only want a better W/L record I want statisitcal superiority over Luck this year.

Originally Posted by Mattyk

I do like the rookie TE's they added, but they'll be facing a learning curve along with Luck.

If there was ever a QB prepared to handle the learning curve its supposed to be Luck right?
Afterall 2 spread QBs without an offseason program were able to light it up right away in a new offense.

[firstdown]

Originally Posted by 30gut

I can't remember where but last week on the radio I heard that Vegas had the Colts 6-10, I feel pretty good about the Burgundy and Gold chances to have a better record then 6-10.

But, I guess I'm the only one that admits that I not only want a better W/L record I want statisitcal superiority over Luck this year.

If there was ever a QB prepared to handle the learning curve its supposed to be Luck right?
Afterall 2 spread QBs without an offseason program were able to light it up right away in a new offense.

The only stat I care for RG3 to have over Luck is in wins. Sounds like your only concerned with numbers so you have something to point to next year. The rookie season will not tell if Luck was worth all the hype. Hell some pointed to RG3 as the better prospect. Not sure what your really asking.

[MTK]

I think we'd all like to see RG3 put up some nice numbers, but in the end I don't care how he compares stats-wise to Luck or to anyone else.

[30gut]

Originally Posted by firstdown

...Sounds like your only concerned with numbers

Rrrrriiiggghhhttt..........

Originally Posted by 30gut

First and foremost I want the Redskins to win more games this year...

Originally Posted by you

so you have something to point to next year. The rookie season will not tell if Luck was worth all the hype. Hell some pointed to RG3 as the better prospect.

I'm not sure how long you've been watching football but that's what happens people fans/media compare stats.

Personally I hope the same people that tout Luck as the best prospect since Peyton Manning and a clearly superior prospect to Cam Newton hold Cam's level of production as the benchmark for Luck's rookie season success.

BTW, I'm one of those people that think RG3 is the better prospect.

Originally Posted by you

Not sure what your really asking.

C'mon, really?
My questions are obvious and very clearly stated in the title and the OP (which you quoted)
But for whatever reason you've chosen to ignore them and argue a point that I'm not making, which is fine, maybe you think this is a pointless topic which is also fine you certainly don't have to answer or agree.
But what I'm asking is quite clear and whether you accept it or not Griff and Luck are always going to compared to each other.

Anyways I'll repeat the questions here: (although I'm sure you've already seen them)

Which teams has better offensive weapons? Us or the Colts?

What rookie season stats do you think Griffin and Luck will post?
(its not that complicated its like asking what stats will Trent Richarson and David Wilson put up)

What type of rookie season production does Luck need to justify the 'best prospect since' hype?
**notice I'm asking a question here: but my inference from your statements is that Luck could post any rookie season stats and still justify the hype because rookie season stats don't matter? Would that be correct?