The Sam Howell Thread

[punch it in]

Originally Posted by BaltimoreSkins

I think you should be come an agent. I love how you are trying to sell quiet fire as an attribute.

There is a lot to like so far in the SSS we have seen. It is definitely the best I have felt about a QB since 2012.

Well Kirk had a good year or two. But at least Snyder isn’t around to fuck it up this time.

[punch it in]

Originally Posted by AnonEmouse

https://www.nfl.com/news/nfl-qb-inde...len-hurts-slip

Even if the team isn't getting the respect 2-0 deserves, Sam is. But I can't see how you can rate some of these guys above him. For me he's performed better than Prescott, Burrow at least, if not Goff and Stafford too.

These rankings are all over the map. Is it based on career or current year?

[AnonEmouse]

Originally Posted by punch it in

These rankings are all over the map. Is it based on career or current year?

Given they only list 2023 stats, must be this year. Just appears to be pure opinion, no explained logic.

[punch it in]

Originally Posted by AnonEmouse

Given they only list 2023 stats, must be this year. Just appears to be pure opinion, no explained logic.

Originally Posted by AnonEmouse

Given they only list 2023 stats, must be this year. Just appears to be pure opinion, no explained logic.

What I thought so thus far Joe Burrow is 9? I wouldn’t want Joe Burrow starting for my kids pee wee team right now. If I had a kid that played pee wee.

[BaltimoreSkins]

Originally Posted by punch it in

Well Kirk had a good year or two. But at least Snyder isn’t around to fuck it up this time.

No you are right I guess I meant as a "rookie"

[BaltimoreSkins]

Originally Posted by AnonEmouse

Given they only list 2023 stats, must be this year. Just appears to be pure opinion, no explained logic.

It's the NFL no logic needed.

[That Guy]

burrow's got a 4.2 ypa right now. no idea why he's that high there.

[Ruhskins]

This is for SFREDSKINS:

[mredskins]

Good article in ESPN :
https://www.espn.com/nfl/insider/sto...son-sam-howell


We knew virtually nothing about Howell as he entered the season as Washington's starter. He fell to the fifth round in the 2022 draft, sat for the majority of his rookie season and started only in Week 18 after Taylor Heinicke urged the coaching staff to play Howell instead. He looked good in that 26-6 win over the Cowboys, but his 19 pass attempts in the game were his only throws of the season.

Well, we now have 99 more attempts of regular-season Howell action to add to our sample. There are things to like. The raw product he puts out there is compelling and sometimes extremely impressive. In terms of negative plays, though, he looks every bit the quarterback who has made four NFL starts. He won't make it through the season playing this way.

Let's start with the positives. Howell is fun to watch when things are working. Some of the throws he has made have been world-class. This throw to Terry McLaurin is both the right decision (deep post versus quarters coverage) and inch perfect. McLaurin has to make a great catch, but this pass is thrown into a spot where only he can come down with the football.

For a 6-foot-1 quarterback, Howell has more zip on his passes than you might think when he gets the time to set his feet and deliver. He's capable of hitting throws to either sideline from the pocket. The 23-year-old also has scrambled for 42 yards and three first downs on five tries, including the game-winning touchdown against the Cardinals. If you catch him on the right snap, he looks like he should have been a top-10 pick.

In whole, though, Howell is too destructive to keep the 2-1 Commanders afloat for long. He admittedly is coming off of a disaster game against a great Bills defense, but no quarterback can survive with this sort of penchant for ending drives. He has a 5.1% interception rate and a 16.1% sack rate through three games. The latter figure is the NFL's worst mark, while the only passer with a more significant interception rate is Jimmy Garoppolo.

Interceptions are more damning than sacks, but I'm more concerned about the sack rate of the two. A 16% sack rate is something out of the 20th century. Howell has been hit on more than 24% of his dropbacks this season; the only quarterback who has been hit more frequently is Russell Wilson.

The propensity to take sacks both runs the risk of injury and makes concepts that would be appealing in the playbook vectors for potential disaster. As an example, Howell's physical ability should make him a candidate to throw on the run. Changing a signal-caller's launch point slows down the pass rush, gets the quarterback outside the pocket, allows him to reduce the progression and creates scramble opportunities. All of that makes his life easier.

NFL Next Gen Stats defines a quarterback on the run as one traveling more than 8 mph. On those plays, Howell ranks last in the NFL in total expected points added (minus-23.0) and EPA per dropback (minus-1.3). The problem? On 18 dropbacks, he is 8-of-13 for 59 yards, but he has thrown an interception and taken five sacks. Some of those are plays in which he is running for his life, but if offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy can't trust him to run a naked bootleg without taking a sack, it's going to cut off what my friend Nate Tice likes to refer to an "easy button" for young quarterbacks.

The interceptions aren't exactly ideal, either. Howell was a little unlucky to have AJ Epenesa snatch a ball out of the air for a pick-six in Week 3, but Howell's four other interceptions on the season have come on off-platform throws in which he wasn't able to drive the ball. Quarterbacks can't get away with those throws in the NFL unless they have Justin Herbert-level arm strength, and Howell is never going to be that guy. Some quarterbacks make a habit of repeating the same mistake, with Zach Wilson's propensity for throwing late on the run to the middle of the field as an example. Howell has to recognize he can't make those throws and adjust accordingly. Ideally, he's going to be able to anticipate those receivers coming open over the middle of the field earlier, which will prevent defenses from laying waste to him in the pocket.

Even leaving aside the Bills game, Howell wasn't quite as impressive over the first two weeks as it might have seemed. His numbers against the Broncos were inflated by 88 yards on screen passes, which is nearly double the production of any other quarterback on screen passes in a single game this season. Only five other quarterbacks have had games with more yardage from screens over the past five years. Howell had three different screens gain at least 20 yards; the last time that happened in a game was when Nick Foles did it for the Eagles in 2013, which was coach Chip Kelly's first season as an NFL coach. Those are great calls from Bieniemy, but his quarterback wasn't exactly shouldering the load on those plays.

Unlike other quarterbacks on this list, the Commanders have an extremely viable backup. Jacoby Brissett started 11 games for the Browns last season and ranked 10th in Total QBR. His career sack rate is higher than the league average, but at 7.6%, that's about half of Howell's through three games. Crucially, Brissett doesn't turn the ball over, as his career interception rate is just 1.5%. The Commanders rank eighth in points per possession allowed since the start of 2022; their best way of winning games might be by playing defense and protecting the ball on offense.


For now, the Commanders are moving forward with Howell as the starter. Hopefully, what we saw against the Bills was one bad start and a lesson for him to learn as he continues on his path toward becoming a franchise quarterback. With the Eagles coming up Sunday, though, his ability to avoid sacks and protect the ball will be tested. If he can't hold onto it, coach Ron Rivera will have no choice but to give Brissett a try.

[GridIron26]

Thanks for sharing the details as I'm not subscriber to ESPN. The assessment seems appropriate and debbie-downer.

[Ruhskins]

Originally Posted by GridIron26

Thanks for sharing the details as I'm not subscriber to ESPN. The assessment seems appropriate and debbie-downer.

Not trying to defend Howell, but I think there's a big difference between players like Sam and Ridder who obviously need development, and the rest of the QBs on that list, who are either veterans that are obviously in decline (Russ, Tannehill) and first-round busts (Wilson and Baker).

Hell, even Ridder has played 3 more games (7 games) than Howell (4 games).

[mredskins]

Originally Posted by GridIron26

Thanks for sharing the details as I'm not subscriber to ESPN. The assessment seems appropriate and debbie-downer.

i figure most don't have the subscription

But i feel like it was a fair assessment with his current body of work

[mredskins]

Originally Posted by Ruhskins

Not trying to defend Howell, but I think there's a big difference between players like Sam and Ridder who obviously need development, and the rest of the QBs on that list, who are either veterans that are obviously in decline (Russ, Tannehill) and first-round busts (Wilson and Baker).

Hell, even Ridder has played 3 more games (7 games) than Howell (4 games).

Its titled six candidates that could get benched; Sam love him or not is definitely a benching candidate

Plus they are not pitting each QB against each other, I am not sure where you are trying to go with your argument. The list could have been 0 or 32 long.

Wilsons play has no bearing on Sam and vice a verses but both are strong candidates for benching.

[Ruhskins]

Originally Posted by mredskins

Its titled six candidates that could get benched; Sam love him or not is definitely a benching candidate

Plus they are not pitting each QB against each other, I am not sure where you are trying to go with your argument. The list could have been 0 or 32 long.

Wilsons play has no bearing on Sam and vice a verses but both are strong candidates for benching.

I guess by that logic, then they should have included Bryce Young, who was pretty terrible in his first start and is already hurt (durability was a big question given his size).

[mredskins]

Originally Posted by Ruhskins

I guess by that logic, then they should have included Bryce Young, who was pretty terrible in his first start and is already hurt (durability was a big question given his size).

Sure I guess, still doesn't mean Sam shouldn't be a potential candidate for benching

But it is also pretty obvious Bryce has a much longer rope then anyone of the six on that list, considering his draft stock and career starts

The only thing that will bench Bryce this season would be an injury