I am a horrible, rotten excuse for a Redskins fan.

[over the mountain]

Originally Posted by SirClintonPortis

50% is for 1st round QBs. 4% is for QBs taken afterwards. These are estimates.
Russell is one of those 50% who fail. 4% failures are guys like Painter, Hoyer, John Beck.

Russell hurt them for three years, but his poor play is part of the reason why Darren McFadden and Rolondo McClain are on that team, both critical components on their respective side of the ball. For the GM making the pick, the only thing that might dissuade them from gambling like that on a QB is job security.

Wouldnt Russell a 1st overall draft pick have a 4% risk of not being successful vs a late 1st round pick who would have a higher 50% chance of not being successful?

other than that, i agree 100%.

[Bucket]

Try to win every game. If you end up going 7-9 or 6-10. Then you make the moves to get the pick when the time comes.. Never try to lose to get a better pick. Itll come back to bite you in the arse

[SBXVII]

Isn't there like a 100% chance that any QB picked will have a 50% chance of failure?

[Daseal]

I don't think that the coaches or players should try to lose. But I want an emphasis on the young players getting experience. Fight hard, stay competitive. As a fan, I want a higher pick -- as a player or coach I would never ask them to not try their hardest.

[over the mountain]

Originally Posted by SBXVII

Isn't there like a 100% chance that any QB picked will have a 50% chance of failure?

No. where are you getting those numbers from? link please or it does not exist.

[SBXVII]

Originally Posted by Bucket

Try to win every game. If you end up going 7-9 or 6-10. Then you make the moves to get the pick when the time comes.. Never try to lose to get a better pick. Itll come back to bite you in the arse

Nope. At this point just lose out. Most of the starters are out anyway so it won't hurt anything. Plus I'd rather they be able to draft where they land vs. having to give up 2 or 3 picks to move up to get a QB.

[SirClintonPortis]

Originally Posted by over the mountain

Wouldnt Russell a 1st overall draft pick have a 4% risk of not being successful vs a late 1st round pick who would have a higher 50% chance of not being successful?

other than that, i agree 100%.

Ack, I meant to say 4% chance of making it. My gaffes just keep on coming. Sorry about that.

[SirClintonPortis]

Originally Posted by SBXVII

Isn't there like a 100% chance that any QB picked will have a 50% chance of failure?

Seems a tad off, considering so many developmental QBs taken in the late rounds don't amount to anything. Maybe it applies to 1st round QBs taken recently though.

[BigHairedAristocrat]

if i were a QB who thought i had a good chance to be the #1 overall draft pick in any year but the year in which luck enters the draft, i'd stay in college an extra year too. even with the rookie scale we have now, the #1 overall pick still gets a nice premium.

[SirClintonPortis]

Originally Posted by Daseal

I don't think that the coaches or players should try to lose. But I want an emphasis on the young players getting experience. Fight hard, stay competitive. As a fan, I want a higher pick -- as a player or coach I would never ask them to not try their hardest.

Pretty much my feelings on the matter. Besides, most, if not all, players won't buy into tanking because of pride or losing their job.

[skinsfaninok]

Originally Posted by Mattyk

I'll never root or wish for the Skins to lose during a game, but I've gotta say after the Cowboys game this week I didn't feel bad at all. A couple of more wins only hurts us at this point.

This...

Anyone who Is acting like they are big diehard fans that hate to admit losing know it's good for our 2012 overall draft this team needs all the high picks it can get

[JoeRedskin]

Originally Posted by SirClintonPortis

Every pick can fail. Higher picks just do so less than others. ... The argument that having a higher pick is not better than a lower pick has no credence. Between a 50% chance of "failing" and a 4% chance of failing, I'll take the 50%.

The problem is that it is not a 50% success rate v. a 4% success rate. Here are all the QB’s chosen in the first rounds since 2005 (I originally had the first 3 rounds but since the allegation is higher in the first round = higher success and consider it a given that we will be picking a QB in the first round, I only included these QB’s):

2011:
Cam Newton 1(1)
Jake Locker 1(8)
Blaine Gabbert 1(10)
Christian Ponder 1(12)

2010:
Bradford 1(1)
Tebow 1(25)

2009:
Stafford 1(1)
Sanchez 1(5)
Freeman 1(17)

2008:
M. Ryan 1(3)
Flacco 1(18)

2007:
JaMarcus Russell 1(1)
B. Quinn 1(22)

2006:
Vince Young 1(3)
Matt Leinart 1(10)
Jay Cutler 1(11)

2005
Alex Smith 1(1)
Aaron Rodgers 1(24)
Jason Campbell 1(25)

I’ll concede that Newton is a Keeper if we can concede that we really can’t make a call on Locker or Ponder but that Gabbert has been underwhelming and will probably be an average at best kinda guy.

With that said, of the QB’s pick in the top 10 we are left with Newton, Bradford, Stafford, Ryan (all of whom appear to be keepers), Sanchez (Nope), JaMarcus (uhhh….) Young, Lienart (Nope) Smith (I think he goes in the failed category b/c he would not last that long with this franchise) and Gabbert (maybe). So its less than that’s a 50% pass rate. With the washouts (Russell, Lienart, Young) being pretty epic.

Outside the top 10 we have Tebow, Freeman, Flacco, Quinn, Cutler, Rodgers & Campbell. Of these, only Quinn was a complete bust. The rest are starters of varying quality (and Tebow – not sure what to call him).

Looking at the top 5 QB's of those chosen in the 1st rounder, I would rate them as follows:
Rodgers (not top 5)
Ryan (top 5)
Cutler (not top 5)
Stafford (top 5)
Cam Newton (top 5)

Of the worst:
Russell (top 5)
Young (top 5)
Lienart (not top 5)
Quinn (not top 5)
Campbell (not top 5)

So the best of the best (Rogers) was a Not Top 5’er and the worst of the worst (Russell) was a Top 5’er.

All this shows to me, as NC_Skins is saying, is that the draft is a crap shoot. Given the odds, you aren’t significantly improving your chances by tanking.

Do your best, build a culture of hard work and “never say die” attitudes and you give a rookie a chance. Create a culture of losing and you will be doomed to the culture you create.

[KI Skins Fan]

Originally Posted by Bucket

Try to win every game. If you end up going 7-9 or 6-10. Then you make the moves to get the pick when the time comes.. Never try to lose to get a better pick. Itll come back to bite you in the arse

It was not my intention to imply that the Skins coaches and players should try to lose. I don't think they should and I know that they won't.

What I posted was solely about how strongly I feel that we need, above all else, to get our Franchise QB in place in order to become contenders in the near future.

[JoeRedskin]

They are going to take a QB in the 1st round. Is there anyone who doubts that? Really? If they don't I would suggest a fan revolt will occur. Even if we accept that Luck is as close to a sure thing as there is, I doubt we can get him without (a) absolutely tanking or (b) crippling the process by trading away the ability to continue building with youth.

So, given that (1) we will draft a 1st round QB; (2) it will not be Luck and (3) regardless of draft position, picking a Round 1 franchise QB is a crap shoot, I say we play hard, win as many games as possible so that the team doesn't "forget" how to do so and then get the best Round 1 QB available to us whereever we land in the draft.

[skinster]

Originally Posted by JoeRedskin

The problem is that it is not a 50% success rate v. a 4% success rate. Here are all the QB’s chosen in the first rounds since 2005 (I originally had the first 3 rounds but since the allegation is higher in the first round = higher success and consider it a given that we will be picking a QB in the first round, I only included these QB’s):

2011:
Cam Newton 1(1)
Jake Locker 1(8)
Blaine Gabbert 1(10)
Christian Ponder 1(12)

2010:
Bradford 1(1)
Tebow 1(25)

2009:
Stafford 1(1)
Sanchez 1(5)
Freeman 1(17)

2008:
M. Ryan 1(3)
Flacco 1(18)

2007:
JaMarcus Russell 1(1)
B. Quinn 1(22)

2006:
Vince Young 1(3)
Matt Leinart 1(10)
Jay Cutler 1(11)

2005
Alex Smith 1(1)
Aaron Rodgers 1(24)
Jason Campbell 1(25)

I’ll concede that Newton is a Keeper if we can concede that we really can’t make a call on Locker or Ponder but that Gabbert has been underwhelming and will probably be an average at best kinda guy.

With that said, of the QB’s pick in the top 10 we are left with Newton, Bradford, Stafford, Ryan (all of whom appear to be keepers), Sanchez (Nope), JaMarcus (uhhh….) Young, Lienart (Nope) Smith (I think he goes in the failed category b/c he would not last that long with this franchise) and Gabbert (maybe). So its less than that’s a 50% pass rate. With the washouts (Russell, Lienart, Young) being pretty epic.

Outside the top 10 we have Tebow, Freeman, Flacco, Quinn, Cutler, Rodgers & Campbell. Of these, only Quinn was a complete bust. The rest are starters of varying quality (and Tebow – not sure what to call him).

Looking at the top 5 QB's of those chosen in the 1st rounder, I would rate them as follows:
Rodgers (not top 5)
Ryan (top 5)
Cutler (not top 5)
Stafford (top 5)
Cam Newton (top 5)

Of the worst:
Russell (top 5)
Young (top 5)
Lienart (not top 5)
Quinn (not top 5)
Campbell (not top 5)

So the best of the best (Rogers) was a Not Top 5’er and the worst of the worst (Russell) was a Top 5’er.

All this shows to me, as NC_Skins is saying, is that the draft is a crap shoot. Given the odds, you aren’t significantly improving your chances by tanking.

Do your best, build a culture of hard work and “never say die” attitudes and you give a rookie a chance. Create a culture of losing and you will be doomed to the culture you create.

I notice you cut off the year before 2004...include it and I'd say its 50%. Include top third of the draft hits vs misses and not top third hits vs misses. The higher up you go, the vast more chances you have of success.

I'd say even if it was a 30% hit ratio (which I believe it to be much higher), it is still roughly 8 times more likely to hit than any other qb taken in any other round. Don't split hairs, its clear that the far and away best chance of getting a quality qb is to pick as early as possible. We can pray for an undrafted tom brady, but I wouldn't bank on it, I'd lay my bed with a top pick.