The Mid Round QB fallacy

[53Fan]

Also, counting Pennington, Jamarcus Russell and Brady Quinn, if you want to count them as starters, 15 of the 26 first round QB picks start. 11 first round picks don't, and if you take away Russell and Quinn who haven't proven much, 50% of the QB's taken in the first round in the last 10 years did not start last year. Take away Pennington, which I guess you could since Henne is starting for Miami, it becomes even more who are not starting.

This is just my opinion and in the grand scheme of things it doesn't really count for much, but there are 2 things I feel strongly about.

1- Considering the personell we have, the Redskins needs at o-line are far greater than our need at QB to become a winning team.

2- Russell Okung is much less of a risk than Bradford or Clausen at #4.

[Schneed10]

I'm of the opinion that if you have a chance to get a QB you think will be great, you absolutely can't pass up the opportunity. No other position impacts the game nearly as much, and the point was already made that nobody is going deep in the playoffs these days without an elite QB.

If you have a great QB prospect available when you pick, it's a mistake to fulfill any other need, including LT.

Could you miss on the QB? Sure. Schuler anyone? But imagine if you hit, and you end up with the next Drew Brees or Peyton Manning. If you hit on an LT, you end up with a Chris Samuels, which is great for 10 years. But without the QB you see where that got us.

Football's a team sport and you need it all, but first and foremost you need the QB. The question isn't whether we should go LT over QB, the question is whether Bradford or Clausen are tremendous prospects. If we think one of them is, we've got to pull the trigger. We'll find our LT later, despite what people think, there are Sam Baker's out there who can make an impact outside of the top 10.

[Son Of Man]

Originally Posted by Schneed10

I'm of the opinion that if you have a chance to get a QB you think will be great, you absolutely can't pass up the opportunity. No other position impacts the game nearly as much, and the point was already made that nobody is going deep in the playoffs these days without an elite QB.

If you have a great QB prospect available when you pick, it's a mistake to fulfill any other need, including LT.

Could you miss on the QB? Sure. Schuler anyone? But imagine if you hit, and you end up with the next Drew Brees or Peyton Manning. If you hit on an LT, you end up with a Chris Samuels, which is great for 10 years. But without the QB you see where that got us.

Football's a team sport and you need it all, but first and foremost you need the QB. The question isn't whether we should go LT over QB, the question is whether Bradford or Clausen are tremendous prospects. If we think one of them is, we've got to pull the trigger. We'll find our LT later, despite what people think, there are Sam Baker's out there who can make an impact outside of the top 10.

Great post. I still want McCoy in the 2nd though.

[dmek25]

would this change things?
EXTREMESKINS.com

[53Fan]

Just for the sake of argument, we've won 3 Super Bowls and gone to 5. In the SB era, besides Sonny Jurgenson who didn't win any, what Franchise QB's have we had?

[dmek25]

thats going to be a quick discussion. Joe T.

[MTK]

Taking a QB in the 1st round is no guarantee for success either. It just boils down to doing your homework and taking the right guy, regardless of round.

[53Fan]

Originally Posted by dmek25

thats going to be a quick discussion. Joe T.

He was picked in the 4th round by the Miami Dolphins and played in the CFL before we got him. Mark Rypien was picked in the 6th. Doug Williams was given up on by Tampa Bay when we got him. But we had a strong o-line.

[dmek25]

you guys old enough to remember Theismann returning punts when he first got here? can you imagine someone trying that now

[53Fan]

Originally Posted by dmek25

you guys old enough to remember Theismann returning punts when he first got here? can you imagine someone trying that now

The coach would get fired.

[CultBrennan59]

Just remember people, we don't need to get a QB later in the draft just to say we got one. I really don't want McCoy just because he is the best name available, he can only throw the ball 40 yards. Pike played in a QB friendly system and threw lots of close/should have been picks. Robinson would show flashes of great QB and also flashes of don't draft me; threw lots of picks without his best WR. LeFevour played in a QB friendly system/shotgun offense. Didn't play against elite competition and makes his receivers adjust to the ball. Tebow doesn't know how to read defenses and delivers the ball very slow and wobbily. Kafka is a definite fighter, but would have games where he would throw 4 TD and 5Ints, doesn't really cut it in the NFL. Kafka's the only one of this bunch of later QB's that I would take a shot on....Lets just go ahead and get Bradford, whether people here like it or not, he'll be our QB in 2010 unless St. Louis takes him. So many people have us taking him in their mocks, I know you shouldn't trust mocks but when its almost unanimous as to who we're getting and the fact that last off season we were looking at QBs, as well as the fact that shanahan can get good OLineman for his system throughout the draft, but QB's really have come to him in the first round, that just supports more why I think he'll go the more safe route (ironically with a guy with a question mark shoulder; then did Brees too...) and get Sam Bradford.

[GusFrerotte]

Originally Posted by Paintrain

Without picking sides in the Bradford/Clausen vs. Okung at #4 pick, it bugs me when I see people say to 'just pick up a QB in the mid rounds' like that's a recipe for success in the league.. Doing a little research (very little) it's pretty clear that it's not.. Of the playoff teams the past 5 years, the QB breakdown is (non first round QB in parenthesis):

2009, 7-12 playoff QB were first round picks (Brees, Warner, Brady, Romo, Favre)
2008, 9-12 playoff QB were first round picks (Warner, T. Jackson, Delhomme)
2007, 5-12 playoff QB were first round picks (Favre, T. Collins, Brady, Garrard, Romo, Garcia, Hasselbeck)
2006, 7-12 playoff QB were first round picks (Brady, Brees, Romo, Hasselbeck, T. Green)
2005, 6-12 playoff QB were first round picks (Brady, Plummer, Brunell, Hasselbeck, Garcia, Delhomme)

So nearly 60% of the playoff QB over the past 5 years have been 1st round picks. The exceptions have been the greatest 6th round pick in league history (Brady) 4 undrafted FA (Romo, Delhomme, Garcia, Warner)-including perhaps one of the most unlikely stories of all time in Warner. Three second round picks (Brees, Favre & Jackson) and 5 late round picks who eventually became something after playing behind established QB for years (Garrard, T. Green, Collins, Brunell, Hasselbeck).

So unless we're hoping for another miracle (Brady, Warner, Romo, Delhomme) or a slightly undervalued gem (Favre, Brees) or are hoping to find an undiscovered star (Hasselbeck, etc) then 'picking up a QB in the mid rounds' is likely not going to yield us anything beyond mediocre football in the future.

My thing is there is a lot of QB talent in this year's draft. The QB's that are being hailed as future superstars all come from big time college programs stacked with talent facing marked inferior opponents most Staurday afternoons(Clausen is the exception IMHO). These guys had huge ass lines, and had top of the line talent to work with. What happens when they hit NFL parity central? The guys going in the mid rounds might just prove more resilent in making this transition to the NFL since most of them come from second tier Div 1-A schools that face competition that was either on par or even superior. Also, your own stats you just gave us have shown that you can indeed get some gems in the mid rounds. Might be a long shot bud, but I would take a shot at a healthy Dan Lefevour than an Okie with a bum shoulder that played on a totally stacked team in Norman. Besides your line of thinking also can apply to offensive linemen. Think Bradford is going to last long with the bums we have now? You give JC or Lefevour a stellar line and either one will make the pro bowl!!!!!!!!!

[GusFrerotte]

Originally Posted by Mattyk

Taking a QB in the 1st round is no guarantee for success either. It just boils down to doing your homework and taking the right guy, regardless of round.

Exactly, comes down to great scouting and coordination between the FO and the HC, plus a bit of luck wouldn't hurt.

[Ruhskins]

Originally Posted by Dirtbag359

The type of accuracy Bradford has is rare so of course I want us to draft him, especially after Shanahan says the number 1 quality he wants in a QB is accuracy. By the way I don't want moderate success, I want a freaking championship. I want Obama leaning into the mic with a football asking "whereeee's Chris Cooley?" I'm tired of hoping we limp into the playoffs. Of course over the next year or two that will be our goal but I want something to look forward to after that.

To me, making the QB position a priority over the offensive line is very similar to what Snyder and Cerrato have been trying to do over the past 10 years, get skill position players (in their case it was through the draft...sometimes, free agency, and trades) without building in the trenches. And drafting Okung is not necessarily by itself going to rebuild the line, but you have a player that can start at tackle right away. Meanwhile, drafting Bradford means putting him behind JC for at least year, and any chance for him to start would be for JC to fail (which would make a lot of ppl happy I'm sure).

As I said, if we do draft Bradford, we better hope that Shanahan can build our depleted offensive line with what he has left. And we better hope that all the money we pay Bradford is worth it at the end and that shoulder that has been twice injured is not as serious as everyone makes it out to be.

You mentioned that people say that this year's QB class is weak, and they'll probably say the same about next year's class. Well, this is the second year when some people are calling out for the Redskins to take a first-round tackle, and well something gets in the way and a tackle is not drafted (and may not be drafted). I know we drafted an pro bowler in Orakpo, and I was fine with that selection, but once again it seems that our drafting of a first-round tackle will be pushed to the next year. Well I wonder what will be the excuse in 2011 as to why we shouldn't take a first-round tackle.

[Dirtbag59]

Originally Posted by Ruhskins

To me, making the QB position a priority over the offensive line is very similar to what Snyder and Cerrato have been trying to do over the past 10 years, get skill position players (in their case it was through the draft...sometimes, free agency, and trades) without building in the trenches. And drafting Okung is not necessarily by itself going to rebuild the line, but you have a player that can start at tackle right away. Meanwhile, drafting Bradford means putting him behind JC for at least year, and any chance for him to start would be for JC to fail (which would make a lot of ppl happy I'm sure).

As I said, if we do draft Bradford, we better hope that Shanahan can build our depleted offensive line with what he has left. And we better hope that all the money we pay Bradford is worth it at the end and that shoulder that has been twice injured is not as serious as everyone makes it out to be.

You mentioned that people say that this year's QB class is weak, and they'll probably say the same about next year's class. Well, this is the second year when some people are calling out for the Redskins to take a first-round tackle, and well something gets in the way and a tackle is not drafted (and may not be drafted). I know we drafted an pro bowler in Orakpo, and I was fine with that selection, but once again it seems that our drafting of a first-round tackle will be pushed to the next year. Well I wonder what will be the excuse in 2011 as to why we shouldn't take a first-round tackle.

Are you saying I'm like Cerrato. That is unforgivable RuhSkins

I will say this though Vinny's problem wasn't refusing to take lineman in the first round but rather taking every other position besides O-Lineman throughout the draft, which was unwise, especially given the track record of lineman in all rounds of the draft. As the jokes go Vinny would constantly scout TE, DB, LB, QB, WR, and maybe DL if he was feeling crazy. I'm calling for the team to draft 2 or 3 lineman a year for the next two years where as Vinny would have maybe considered drafting 2 guys this year.

Drafting Okung might be smart but it could also be the whole "one player away" mentality that we've doing all along and as you've seen it's taken Soup 5 years just to get to the point where he might be the guy, waiting a year to draft a QB that we might not be in position to draft isn't on par with long term planning. We'd be better served to think 2 or 3 years down the line rather then focusing soley on 2010 and filling the biggest need with the 4th pick despite the high probability of quality options in the second round isn't the best way to go about it in my opinion.

Besides Shanahans track record says he will find mid round lineman that will produce. Ryan Clady was the only successful first round tackle under Shanhan, the rest of the time he was using third, fourth, and fifth rounders. Keep in mind these lines were frequently considered among the best in the league.

In the end I believe drafting Bradford/Clausen in the first and a tackle in the 2nd will provide more value for us in the long run rather then Okung/McCoy/Pike.

-Dirtbag (because signing my name shows how damn important I am)