The virtue of patience

[CRedskinsRule]

Originally Posted by 53Fan

Whenever comparisons are made, they are usually made with someone who is the exception to the rule. Disappointment is inevitable in most cases. If comparisons were made with the norm, there wouldn't be so much reason for panic. You would understand that most receivers take 2-3 years to develop. That the WCO takes 2-3 years to become efficient. That QB's do better when playing in the same system instead of changing every year or two. This isn't bad, it's just normal. Impatience says we want it to happen now, not after the time it has been proven to normally take. But then again there's always the exception to the rule, and that's what we continue to make comparisons to. "Well Matt Ryan and Joe Flacco took their teams to the playoffs in their rookie years and they had a new system." Once again, an exception to the rule. Drew Brees did'nt. Peyton Manning didn't. Troy Aikman didn't. Realistic expectations based on history make for a sound outlook. Unrealistic expectations based on the exceptions of a few create anxiety and disappointment.

well that's all good and well. so we get to the SB this year right??

[53Fan]

Originally Posted by CRedskinsRule

well that's all good and well. so we get to the SB this year right??

Oh yeah. Of course.

[SC Skins Fan]

Originally Posted by 53Fan

Whenever comparisons are made, they are usually made with someone who is the exception to the rule. Disappointment is inevitable in most cases. If comparisons were made with the norm, there wouldn't be so much reason for panic. You would understand that most receivers take 2-3 years to develop. That the WCO takes 2-3 years to become efficient. That QB's do better when playing in the same system instead of changing every year or two. This isn't bad, it's just normal. Impatience says we want it to happen now, not after the time it has been proven to normally take. But then again there's always the exception to the rule, and that's what we continue to make comparisons to. "Well Matt Ryan and Joe Flacco took their teams to the playoffs in their rookie years and they had a new system." Once again, an exception to the rule. Drew Brees did'nt. Peyton Manning didn't. Troy Aikman didn't. Realistic expectations based on history make for a sound outlook. Unrealistic expectations based on the exceptions of a few create anxiety and disappointment.

Most receivers who had rookie statistics comparable to Devin Thomas' never become adequate NFL receivers. Steve Smith and Brandon Marshall are actually exceptions in that regard. Few receivers have tremendous rookie campaigns, but 25-40 catches for 400-600 yards is something you would like to see from the 34th pick. So it is actually bending statistics in the other direction when you simply say it takes 2-3 years for a WR to "develop." Yes and no. It typically does take time before you get big production, but you also don't typically see a guy go from completely lost to suddenly becoming a stud receiver.

But that is fine. We all hope they both become contributers. I mean I haven't see a single serious person suggest that either Thomas or Kelly should get jettisoned at this point. Expressions of concern about Kelly's knee are not calls for his release. I think the descriptions of fan "impatience" are overstated, at least judging by serious people on this site (who cares about other people). The most serious impatience this offseason has been the front office's very public desire to dump Campbell before giving him a second year in Zorn's offense.

[skinsfan69]

Originally Posted by Paintrain

I posted something similar to this on another board a couple months back but I thought it'd be relevant with all of the "IR/Bench" Kelly sentiment around here..

There's so much negativity about JC and our rookies from last year I wanted to give a little recent (this decade) historical perspective on patience with letting players develop..

QB- in his first 28 starts he compiles stats of 29 TD, 31 INT, averaging right around 200 yards per game, 6.7 yards per completion, 79.7 QB rating while posting a sub .500 record. He's roundly criticized by his team's fan base for his lack of production, lack of consistency, accuracy and leadership abilities. Their was excitement was boundless when his replacement was sought, even though it was publicly botched.

WR- in his rookie year as a first day pick he plays in 15 games, starting 1, gets 10 catches for 154 yards and no TD. He's got a ton of raw talent but fans and media wonder if he will ever amount to anything because he's a bit of a knucklehead.

WR- in his rookie year as a first day pick he misses 11 games with a knee injury, playing in only 5 games. He amasses 2 catches for 40 yards and no TD and is widely criticized as a player who will always be injured and will struggle to be a consistent performer for his team.

TE- in his rookie year he comes in as a first day pick. Starts 10 games in a pass friendly offense and racks up 29 catches and 1 TD. His tools are unquestionable but his production pales in comparison.

At a glance, what would you have felt about those players at the points of their careers that JC, Thomas, Kelly and Davis are at right now? Any guesses about who those players were/are?

The probelm with Kelly is he couldn't even get on the field at all. He couldn't even practice. Nothing. At least Thomas got in games and played on teams. Sorry but staying patient with Kelly really isn't an option at this point. If he can't get on the field by training camp then someone is going to take his job. His roster spot is too valuable and other guys are being signed that can play teams and be a 3rd or 4th wr. I'm much more willing to be patient with Thomas cause he can help out on teams and he's got game experience. I think with Fred Davis it's only a matter of time. To be honest he's got more ability than Cooley. It all boils down to if he can learn how to be a professional. If he does then there is no way he's not going to be on the field.

[GTripp0012]

Here's a few more "who are they?" players. All of these players were drafted within the last ten years.

1) This quarterback was sacked on a very high 7% of his attempts as a rookie, behind an offensive line that was, at the time, considered to be a young, talented one. He completed an acceptable 60% of his passes that year, while not even throwing for 3,000 yards. He had a respectable 14-12 TD/INT rate as a rookie. He also has multiple playoff victories and is considered a fiery leader and a winner. This quarterback has never been to a pro-bowl.

2) This first day NFL Draft selection is currently the unquestioned starter of an NFL team. As a rookie, he completed only 56.1% of his passes. His sack rate increased from his rookie year to his second year by 1.5%. He is a career 1:1 TD/INT guy, who has never had 2,700 yards passing in a single season, despite starting 23 career games. Despite a winning record as a starter, his teams have never really been competitive for a playoff spot. Part of that is due to an extensive injury history and a horrific quarterback situation behind him.

3) This tight end is a four time pro-bowler, all with the same team. As a rookie, he started 12 games, but only recorded 330 yards and 3 TDs. Despite the slow start, he scored 5+ TDs in four consecutive NFL seasons. No tight end in the history of his division has come anywhere close to his career production. Injuries eventually did him in: he started in 62 of 64 games during his four pro bowl seasons, but has missed games the last two seasons.

4) This running back is a former top ten draft pick, who flamed out so badly with his first team that he was universally considered a collassal bust after his third season. After being released by the team that drafted with him, he got signed by the team that had won the super bowl the prior season, and had a career-saving season. The following season, he signed a big-money deal, and since then, he has increased his productivity every season, playing in a super bowl, and enjoying a career year at age-30 where he was elected to the pro-bowl for the first time.

5) This former first round draft pick wide receiver did not even combine for 1,000 yards in his first two years in the NFL. Up until that point, he had been considered an effective deep threat with hands that would never allow him to be a quality starting receiver. In his second NFL season, he didn't even get in the end zone. Faced with the proposition of many bad investments on offense over the prior four years, his team changed coaches and quarterbacks, and he responded with a 1,200+ yard breakout season. The following year, this clear cut No. 1 receiver was elected to the pro bowl, and he helped take his team to the playoffs.

6) After two NFL seasons, it was hard to see where this former first round WR was going to fit in. He had marginal productivity for a 2 year veteran, and was blocked by one of the greatest receivers to ever play. Finally, in his third year, his team found a place in the starting lineup for him, and he flourished. This three time pro-bowler has a consecutive starts streak that spans six seasons, and has 1,000 yards receiving in five consecutive seasons, while having totaled 53 career touchdowns.

Who are these guys?

[GMScud]

Originally Posted by GTripp0012

Here's a few more "who are they?" players. All of these players were drafted within the last ten years.

1) This quarterback was sacked on a very high 7% of his attempts as a rookie, behind an offensive line that was, at the time, considered to be a young, talented one. He completed an acceptable 60% of his passes that year, while not even throwing for 3,000 yards. He had a respectable 14-12 TD/INT rate as a rookie. He also has multiple playoff victories and is considered a fiery leader and a winner. This quarterback has never been to a pro-bowl.

2) This first day NFL Draft selection is currently the unquestioned starter of an NFL team. As a rookie, he completed only 56.1% of his passes. His sack rate increased from his rookie year to his second year by 1.5%. He is a career 1:1 TD/INT guy, who has never had 2,700 yards passing in a single season, despite starting 23 career games. Despite a winning record as a starter, his teams have never really been competitive for a playoff spot. Part of that is due to an extensive injury history and a horrific quarterback situation behind him.

3) This tight end is a four time pro-bowler, all with the same team. As a rookie, he started 12 games, but only recorded 330 yards and 3 TDs. Despite the slow start, he scored 5+ TDs in four consecutive NFL seasons. No tight end in the history of his division has come anywhere close to his career production. Injuries eventually did him in: he started in 62 of 64 games during his four pro bowl seasons, but has missed games the last two seasons.

4) This running back is a former top ten draft pick, who flamed out so badly with his first team that he was universally considered a collassal bust after his third season. After being released by the team that drafted with him, he got signed by the team that had won the super bowl the prior season, and had a career-saving season. The following season, he signed a big-money deal, and since then, he has increased his productivity every season, playing in a super bowl, and enjoying a career year at age-30 where he was elected to the pro-bowl for the first time.

5) This former first round draft pick wide receiver did not even combine for 1,000 yards in his first two years in the NFL. Up until that point, he had been considered an effective deep threat with hands that would never allow him to be a quality starting receiver. In his second NFL season, he didn't even get in the end zone. Faced with the proposition of many bad investments on offense over the prior four years, his team changed coaches and quarterbacks, and he responded with a 1,200+ yard breakout season. The following year, this clear cut No. 1 receiver was elected to the pro bowl, and he helped take his team to the playoffs.

6) After two NFL seasons, it was hard to see where this former first round WR was going to fit in. He had marginal productivity for a 2 year veteran, and was blocked by one of the greatest receivers to ever play. Finally, in his third year, his team found a place in the starting lineup for him, and he flourished. This three time pro-bowler has a consecutive starts streak that spans six seasons, and has 1,000 yards receiving in five consecutive seasons, while having totaled 53 career touchdowns.

Who are these guys?

1)
2) Kyle Orton
3) Alge Crumpler
4) Thomas Jones
5)
6) Reggie Wayne

Still working on 1 and 5...

[53Fan]

#6 Is Reggie Wayne?

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by GMScud

1)
2) Kyle Orton
3) Alge Crumpler
4) Thomas Jones
5)
6) Reggie Wayne

Still working on 1 and 5...

Crumpler, Jones, and Wayne are all correct. I had someone else in mind at No. 2 besides Orton, although I'm sure all that criteria applies to him as well.

Here's a hint for those trying No. 1: Don't let my use of tense throw you off, it really is the first player you'd think of.

[SC Skins Fan]

Originally Posted by GTripp0012

Crumpler, Jones, and Wayne are all correct. I had someone else in mind at No. 2 besides Orton, although I'm sure all that criteria applies to him as well.

Here's a hint for those trying No. 1: Don't let my use of tense throw you off, it really is the first player you'd think of.

1) Joe Flacco

[GTripp0012]

1 is Flacco.

[SC Skins Fan]

2) Trent Edwards

[GTripp0012]

Correct.

[SC Skins Fan]

5) Roddy White

[GMScud]

Originally Posted by GTripp0012

Crumpler, Jones, and Wayne are all correct. I had someone else in mind at No. 2 besides Orton, although I'm sure all that criteria applies to him as well.

Here's a hint for those trying No. 1: Don't let my use of tense throw you off, it really is the first player you'd think of.

2) Trent Edwards.

I still can't figure out #1

EDIT: woops, didn't see you guys already figured it out.

Nice quiz GTripp.

[GTripp0012]

Roddy White is No. 5.

Good work guys.