Election predictions thread

hooskins · 10-30-2008, 02:46 PM

Monkeydad · 10-30-2008, 02:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hooskins

hahaaaa I love the last two predictions. Almost as hilarious as bill o'reilly's electoral map

Obama's arrogance of proclaiming himself the next President, already planning his transition, even doing a Hollywood-produced commercial with him in a room very similar to the Oval Office is also going to contribute to his loss.

He has his followers convinced he can't lose because he doesn't believe he can.

There will be riots.

MTK · 10-30-2008, 03:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Buster

Obama's arrogance of proclaiming himself the next President, already planning his transition, even doing a Hollywood-produced commercial with him in a room very similar to the Oval Office is also going to contribute to his loss.

He has his followers convinced he can't lose because he doesn't believe he can.

There will be riots.

I'm glad your happy about that.

dmek25 · 10-30-2008, 03:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Buster

McCain will win by at least 5-6% and by over 100 EC votes.

The fact that Obama is not up by at LEAST 10 points in the polls is bad, bad news to his campaign since polls are always weighted in Democrats' favors. Remember how Kerry was up last time and lost? Gore? Even McGovern had a lead over Reagan a month out.

The lead has been rapidly shrinking for Obama this week as the pollsters adjust to try to salvage credibility.

Choosing Prosperity and Strength: The Polls Move Towards McCain
Townhall.com::Blog

In my state, PA, a few days ago, Obama was up by 10-12 points.
now:

Also, early voting SHOCKINGLY has been in favor of McCain and independent "undecided" voters are almost all doing to McCain.

i just checked the latest gallup poll, and obama is up 11 points. thats was around lunch time. its all in what poll you look at

MTK · 10-30-2008, 04:33 PM

POLL-Obama takes 7-point lead on McCain | Reuters

firstdown · 10-30-2008, 04:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dmek25

i just checked the latest gallup poll, and obama is up 11 points. thats was around lunch time. its all in what poll you look at

Their traditional pole most use is around 3% which is through the 28th. Maybe you have a more updated pole.
2008 US (United States) Presidential Election and Candidate Coverage -- Gallup.com

MTK · 10-30-2008, 04:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by firstdown

Their traditional pole most use is around 3% which is through the 28th. Maybe you have a more updated pole.
2008 US (United States) Presidential Election and Candidate Coverage -- Gallup.com

It says 5 - 7% right now

dmek25 · 10-30-2008, 04:50 PM

sorry, i was talking about Penn. Buster and my home town

BleedBurgundy · 10-30-2008, 05:00 PM

If McCain wins it's because democrats just didn't get out to the polls. But in all reality, I expect Obama to win, though it won't be with my vote.

TheMalcolmConnection · 10-30-2008, 05:22 PM

Prediction: pain. Obama kicks a late field goal to win 20-17. McCain does his best Wade Phillips impression by being old.

Seriously, Obama wins.

DynamiteRave · 10-30-2008, 05:59 PM

Either Obama's going to win by a slim margin (less than 5%) or he's going to win by more than expected (I'd say by over 7-8%).

Everyone pretty much knows Black people are going to go out in droves, moreso than 2004. I'm hoping that will be enough to tip him over..

I mean my sig link won't make anymore sense if he loses...

DynamiteRave · 10-30-2008, 06:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mattyk72

I'm glad your happy about that.

I wouldn't mind it. Beating up a pretentious Republican might make me happy? Whoooo knows! It could be an effective therapy technique!

(Note: All Republicans are not pretentious)

firstdown · 10-30-2008, 06:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DynamiteRave

Either Obama's going to win by a slim margin (less than 5%) or he's going to win by more than expected (I'd say by over 7-8%).

Everyone pretty much knows Black people are going to go out in droves, moreso than 2004. I'm hoping that will be enough to tip him over..

I mean my sig link won't make anymore sense if he loses...

I think if he wins the increase in turn out in the black vote will show to be the margin of victory. Who really knows its all just one big halfway educated guess.

DynamiteRave · 10-30-2008, 06:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by firstdown

I think if he wins the increase in turn out in the black vote will show to be the margin of victory. Who really knows its all just one big halfway educated guess.

Yep. That's politics for ya.

Personally, I just want Tuesday to come and go. So these boards can go back to, like 70Chip said, models and monkey's throwing crap. Those were the good old days.

NM Redskin · 10-30-2008, 06:18 PM

I thopught this was interesting ... the guy is in baseball stats so I thought it was fitting, hes got 344 to 193

FiveThirtyEight.com: Electoral Projections Done Right

10-30-2008, 02:46 PM	#16
hooskins Most Interesting Man in the World Join Date: Dec 2005 Location: Chantilly, VA Age: 37 Posts: 8,606	Re: Election predictions thread __________________ Vacancy

10-30-2008, 04:33 PM	#20
MTK \m/ Join Date: Feb 2004 Location: NY Age: 52 Posts: 99,502	Re: Election predictions thread POLL-Obama takes 7-point lead on McCain \| Reuters __________________ Support The Warpath! \| Warpath Shop

10-30-2008, 04:50 PM	#23
dmek25 MVP Join Date: Oct 2005 Location: lancaster,pa Age: 63 Posts: 10,672	Re: Election predictions thread sorry, i was talking about Penn. Buster and my home town __________________ "It's better to be quiet and thought a fool than to open ones mouth and remove all doubt." courtesy of 53fan

10-30-2008, 05:00 PM	#24
BleedBurgundy Playmaker Join Date: Feb 2004 Posts: 4,471	Re: Election predictions thread If McCain wins it's because democrats just didn't get out to the polls. But in all reality, I expect Obama to win, though it won't be with my vote. __________________ "All natural institutions of churches, whether Jewish, Christian, or Turkish, appear to me no other than human inventions, set up to terrify and enslave mankind, and monopolize power and profit." Thomas Paine

10-30-2008, 05:22 PM	#25
TheMalcolmConnection I like big (_\|_)s. Join Date: Dec 2004 Location: Lexington, Virginia Age: 43 Posts: 19,225	Re: Election predictions thread Prediction: pain. Obama kicks a late field goal to win 20-17. McCain does his best Wade Phillips impression by being old. Seriously, Obama wins. __________________ Regret nothing. At one time it was exactly what you wanted.

10-30-2008, 05:59 PM	#26
DynamiteRave Living Legend Join Date: Dec 2005 Location: Washington DC Age: 38 Posts: 16,867	Re: Election predictions thread Either Obama's going to win by a slim margin (less than 5%) or he's going to win by more than expected (I'd say by over 7-8%). Everyone pretty much knows Black people are going to go out in droves, moreso than 2004. I'm hoping that will be enough to tip him over.. I mean my sig link won't make anymore sense if he loses... __________________ Establishment, establishment, you always know what's best. I've been a part of this message board for 17 years. Damn I'm old.

10-30-2008, 06:18 PM	#30
NM Redskin The Starter Join Date: Apr 2004 Location: New Mexico Posts: 1,014	Re: Election predictions thread I thopught this was interesting ... the guy is in baseball stats so I thought it was fitting, hes got 344 to 193 FiveThirtyEight.com: Electoral Projections Done Right __________________ Despite my solid 40 time and great intangibles I went undrafted AGAIN!

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