Poll: Obama leads in Mich., Wis., Minn., Colo.

[Monkeydad]

Originally Posted by Mattyk72

Looks like Palin and the negative attacks on Obama have seriously backfired for McCain, especially among indepedents:

The Canadian Press: Not just economy: Palin, negative attacks on Obama decimating McCain

AH yes, the always relevant FOREIGN media sources.

[MTK]

Originally Posted by Buster

AH yes, the always relevant FOREIGN media sources.

Ready, Aim, Backfire: Nasty Political Ads Fall Flat - WSJ.com

Independent studies say a higher proportion of Sen. McCain's ads are negative than Sen. Obama's. And with voters largely blaming Republicans for the economy, polls suggest that Sen. McCain is paying the price for the increasingly negative tone of the campaign. In the past, voters usually divided the blame for negative advertising between both candidates, says Dr. West. Among recent elections, "there's none that come close" to today's one-sided leveling of blame, he adds.

[SmootSmack]

Obama sort of needs to win for the sake of his party. If the Democratic party can't win this year when can they win?

[SmootSmack]

This is interesting

Obama was wrong to state that "100 percent" of McCain TV ads have been negative. According to a survey by the Wisconsin Advertising Project at the University of Wisconsin, 73 percent of the ads McCain has aired since the start of the campaign have been negative while 61 percent of Obama's ads have been negative. According to a Nielsen survey, both candidates had roughly similar numbers of negative ads beteen June 3, when the primaries ended and September 7. During that period, the McCain campaign ran 76,192 negative ads against Obama while the Obama campaign ran 75,246 negative ads against McCain.

It's possible Obama was referring to recent ads aired by McCain. The Wisconsin Advertising project reported that "nearly 100 percent" of McCain ads between September 28-October 4 were negative.

Final Presidential Debate Fact Check - Fact Checker

[hooskins]

Originally Posted by Mattyk72

Ready, Aim, Backfire: Nasty Political Ads Fall Flat - WSJ.com

And I hear crickets LOL

[Schneed10]

Originally Posted by Mattyk72

Not looking good for Johnny

The Associated Press: Poll: Obama leads in Mich., Wis., Minn., Colo.

No spin, and I do agree that Obama is heavily favored at this point based on the numbers.

But do those Quinnipac polls account for Bob Barr and Ralph Nader? And do they account for the age bias in likely voters? Because when they say "likely" voters, I'm not certain they're appropriately adjusting for the young voters who tend not to mobilize and the older voters who tend to show up in droves.

From what I know about stats, I'd agree that Obama is favored at this point, simply because sampling errors (as I discussed above) are not enough to make up for a 10 point deficit. But I also think it will be closer than these polls indicate.

[Monkeydad]

Originally Posted by hooskins

And I hear crickets LOL

I've never heard a cricket laugh out loud. Cool...

Sorry I'm not online 24/7 like some of you to respond ASAP.



If you have not learned that polls are not trustworthy in the past few decades (especially the last 2 elections), you either haven't been paying much attention or just have your head in the sand and will believe only what makes you happy.

I'm not saying Obama can't win, but I do believe it is a lot closer than most polls indicate (if you examine the internals of the polls) and could go either way.

Also, a LOT can happen in 2 weeks to have a dramatic impact on the outcome, especially economically or even from a terrorist-related action performed solely to sway the election. Osama bin Laden TRIED this last time with a video pretty much endorsing John Kerry 4 days before the election. A video from a terrorist won't do much, but actions could.

BBC NEWS | Americas | Kerry blames defeat on Bin Laden

John Kerry blamed his loss on OBL, but he would've lost anyways due to his own incompetent campaigning.

[Monkeydad]

[MTK]

The Kerry football pics are an all-time classic, I crack up everytime I see them.

This is a pretty cool site that compiles all the polls and gives you an average:

RealClearPolitics - RealClearPolitics Poll Averages

[JWsleep]

Here's an even more interesting poll site: FiveThirtyEight.com: Electoral Projections Done Right

The guy made his name by developing baseball statistics. He's an Obama supporter, but it's a very interesting site. He does not simply aggregate the polls like realclear, but provides lots of other additional measures. Check it out.

[MTK]

Originally Posted by JWsleep

Here's an even more interesting poll site: FiveThirtyEight.com: Electoral Projections Done Right

The guy made his name by developing baseball statistics. He's an Obama supporter, but it's a very interesting site. He does not simply aggregate the polls like realclear, but provides lots of other additional measures. Check it out.

good stuff, thanks