NFL Comparables for 2010 Draft Prospects at Quarterback

[mlmdub130]

i've been saying it all year, and i'll say it again, i want pike, he has the size, the arm, the accuracy, and vision, and i think we could pick him up late second round which would allow us to go o line first round

[SmootSmack]

Add in Zac Robinson and Jevan Snead...and John Skelton

[mlmdub130]

^and by saying that i want to point out i want jc back next year i don't want a rookie qb next year behind a rebuilding line and new system

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by SmootSmack

Add in Zac Robinson and Jevan Snead...and John Skelton

I can do Robinson and Snead. If I put Skelton/Randolph in this system without translating their numbers for competition, it would just spit out ridiculously great comparables for two guys who might end up being 4th or 5th round picks. Sure, they might be the next Peyton Manning/Philip Rivers/Ben Roethlisberger, but then, I really hope they don't slip to the 4th round and never get a chance.

Zac Robinson
1. Kellen Clemens
2. Matt Ryan
3. Josh Freeman
4. Byron Leftwich
5. Drew Stanton
6. John Beck
7. John David Booty

Jevan Snead
1. J.P. Losman
2. Joey Harrington
3. Quincy Carter
4. Jim Druckenmiller
5. Marques Tuiasosopo
6. Kyle Boller
7. Kyle Orton

[SmootSmack]

Don't worry about Randolph. He's Chase Daniel 2010-meaning he won't be drafted (I don't think)

So are you going to share how you got to these results?

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by SmootSmack

Don't worry about Randolph. He's Chase Daniel 2010-meaning he won't be drafted (I don't think)

So are you going to share how you got to these results?

The actual formula outputs, not yet at least. I am serious when I say I did not use any variables that were not accounted for in the original post. I used one regression for completion percentage vs. college starts, another for completion percentage vs. college wins, and a third for performance in QBs best year vs. performance in the worst year, expressed as a ratio (the value metric was completion percentage times the percentage of career attempts thrown in that year...McCoy for example scored 12.92, 16.47, 19.79, and 21.15 in his four years...appreciating value).

The next step is to try to develop a way to deviate the comparables from the lines of best fit. Like I said, the comparables listed here was just me eyeballing the outputs, no math involved. That makes it more arbitrary than I would like, but again, it's December, and accuracy in the general sense is a good start in my book.

I'll probably have to steal a similarity scores formula from somewhere, and that will alter the results just a bit.

[SmootSmack]

Did you use these same variables for your projections on Rattay, Quinn, and Gradkowski

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by SmootSmack

Did you use these same variables for your projections on Rattay, Quinn, and Gradkowski

No. Quinn's college statistics are one of the 45 reference points I'm using to make the regression however. Gradkowski stats aren't, currently, but I could add him fairly easily.

I don't think I've ever looked up Rattay's college stats, but thought that his NFL performance warranted a longer NFL shelf life.

My pre-2007 Quinn projection was based on the old football outsiders formula that used only completion percentage and college starts, plus a great deal of game tape reference. It's the growing inaccuracy of the old system that is driving me to design a better one.

As you would expect, most of this work is preliminary, and unrefined. I felt comfortable posting the comparables though, under the admission that I expect the accuracy to improve as we get closer to draft day (when projected draft position can be used as more than a binary "first-round, not-first-round")

[CRedskinsRule]

Originally Posted by GTripp0012

The actual formula outputs, not yet at least. I am serious when I say I did not use any variables that were not accounted for in the original post. I used one regression for completion percentage vs. college starts, another for completion percentage vs. college wins, and a third for performance in QBs best year vs. performance in the worst year, expressed as a ratio (the value metric was completion percentage times the percentage of career attempts thrown in that year...McCoy for example scored 12.92, 16.47, 19.79, and 21.15 in his four years...appreciating value).

The next step is to try to develop a way to deviate the comparables from the lines of best fit. Like I said, the comparables listed here was just me eyeballing the outputs, no math involved. That makes it more arbitrary than I would like, but again, it's December, and accuracy in the general sense is a good start in my book.

I'll probably have to steal a similarity scores formula from somewhere, and that will alter the results just a bit.

Did anyone else flashback to Star Trek IV when Spock had to guess at the variables to time warp back to the future earth?

[skinsfan69]

I'm not really sold on any of these QB's. I just don't see a can't miss guy in this year's draft class. Some of them have nice stats but that really doesn't mean anything when it comes to the pro game. The only guy that really looks the part is Clausen.

[skinsfan69]

Originally Posted by mlmdub130

i've been saying it all year, and i'll say it again, i want pike, he has the size, the arm, the accuracy, and vision, and i think we could pick him up late second round which would allow us to go o line first round

Pike has come on this year but isn't this only good year? Plus he's too frail.

[mlmdub130]

Originally Posted by skinsfan69

Pike has come on this year but isn't this only good year? Plus he's too frail.

he had a good year last year, and he is frail thats why we need to draft oline and keep jc rebuild the line and have pike start in two years

[SmootSmack]

Originally Posted by skinsfan69

I'm not really sold on any of these QB's. I just don't see a can't miss guy in this year's draft class. Some of them have nice stats but that really doesn't mean anything when it comes to the pro game. The only guy that really looks the part is Clausen.

or John Skelton...just saying.

Seriously though, a lot will depend of course on who our next coach is (or if it's even Zorn)

[rbanerjee23]

Doesn't matter, we're not picking a qb period

[mlmdub130]

Originally Posted by rbanerjee23

Doesn't matter, we're not picking a qb period

you seriously think we won't draft a qb? and seriously don't think there is a chance it will happen in the first round? you have got to be joking right