Peter King on The Skins - Future Cap Trouble

[Schneed10]

Originally Posted by Mattyk72

Sounds like a typical Redskins offseason.

Yep. The sky is not falling, the world is not ending, the band is not breaking up.

In 2009 we could see a major shakeup, though I'll hold final judgment on that until I see what the Skins actually do in 2008.

Any renegotiations with Jason Campbell and/or Sean Taylor could obviously impact the numbers as well.

[Schneed10]

General note, I'm happy to take questions on this stuff, as always.

But if you want to wait until the offseason, I'd certainly understand. After all, we've got a playoff race to win!

[SouperMeister]

Originally Posted by Schneed10

I'm going to list the ways to get the cap number down. You can debate the merit of making certain moves on this list, but if we don't cut a certain player, you can bet we'd restructure them, which would also save some money.

Expected Roster Cuts:
Phillip Daniels - $3.0 million saved
Mark Brunell - $3.4 million saved
Total Savings for Cuts: $6.4 million

Keeping These Players, Restructuring 2008 Base Salary, Prorating over Remaining life of Contract:
Randy Thomas - $4.3 million saved
Clinton Portis - $3.8 million saved
Jon Jansen - $3.7 million saved
Chris Samuels - $3.4 million saved
Cornelius Griffin - $2.8 million saved
Santana Moss - $2.4 million saved
Casey Rabach - $1.8 million saved
Total Salary Restructure Savings: $22.2 million

Keeping These Players, Restructuring 2008 Roster Bonuses, Prorating over Remaining life of Contract:
Ladell Betts - $1.7 million saved
Clinton Portis - $0.4 million saved
Andre Carter - $1.9 million saved
Antwaan Randle-El - $1.2 million saved
Total Bonus Restructure Savings: $5.2 million

So I see ways to reduce our 2008 cap number by about $34 million. So do I think armageddon is coming next year? NO.

But I wouldn't go making ALL of the moves I listed above, either. We're starting to push a little too much into the future. And if we get rid of Brandon Lloyd, that move will eat up some more space.

Bottom line, we won't have to dismantle the team, but we won't have lots of flexibility, either. We'll need to draft very well.

Great analysis Schneed - I'm feeling a little better. I hope that we restructure well to keep the core group together for another year - this team will make some noise next year. The draft will be key to replacing guys like Daniels (assuming he's cut) and building depth for an aging O-line.

[Paintrain]

Originally Posted by Mattyk72

Sounds like a typical Redskins offseason.

Except we actually have most of our draft picks..

Typical annual media 'Redskins are in pending cap hell' blurb.. Remember how before the labor agreement we were going to have to field like 33 rookies or something foolish like that?

While silly things like consistently winning or making the playoffs in consecutive years seem to escape the Redskins braintrust, circumventing the salary cap is the one thing that we do better than anyone else in the NFL.

[skinsfan69]

Originally Posted by Schneed10

I'm going to list the ways to get the cap number down. You can debate the merit of making certain moves on this list, but if we don't cut a certain player, you can bet we'd restructure them, which would also save some money.

Expected Roster Cuts:
Phillip Daniels - $3.0 million saved
Mark Brunell - $3.4 million saved
Total Savings for Cuts: $6.4 million

Keeping These Players, Restructuring 2008 Base Salary, Prorating over Remaining life of Contract:
Randy Thomas - $4.3 million saved
Clinton Portis - $3.8 million saved
Jon Jansen - $3.7 million saved
Chris Samuels - $3.4 million saved
Cornelius Griffin - $2.8 million saved
Santana Moss - $2.4 million saved
Casey Rabach - $1.8 million saved
Total Salary Restructure Savings: $22.2 million

Keeping These Players, Restructuring 2008 Roster Bonuses, Prorating over Remaining life of Contract:
Ladell Betts - $1.7 million saved
Clinton Portis - $0.4 million saved
Andre Carter - $1.9 million saved
Antwaan Randle-El - $1.2 million saved
Total Bonus Restructure Savings: $5.2 million

So I see ways to reduce our 2008 cap number by about $34 million. So do I think armageddon is coming next year? NO.

But I wouldn't go making ALL of the moves I listed above, either. We're starting to push a little too much into the future. And if we get rid of Brandon Lloyd, that move will eat up some more space.

Bottom line, we won't have to dismantle the team, but we won't have lots of flexibility, either. We'll need to draft very well.

Very good post. Every year somebody always says that The Redskins are in cap hell. And every year they re-structure the cap and go out and sign guys.

Peter King is a tool. I'll never ever forget when Old Ball Coach got hired and King said Danny Weurfel (sp?) was going to be the next Kurt Warner. I don't believe anything that comes out of his mouth.

[redsk1]

Good posts. I would like to think that our Capogists at Redskins Park already know this and have a good plan to work our way thru.

[BrunellMVP?]

Originally Posted by Mattyk72

I'd rather hear from some of our cap heads on this before I start getting too worked up about it.

agreed...there really isn't anything wrong with the Snyder system AT FACE VALUE (not advocating for it, just making a point)...you can continue to pay a lot of money (hopefully wiser moving forward), if you can get players to defer payment this year for guaranteed future payments. Synder can continue this scheme into perpetuity so long as he owns the team- we get into trouble when we get a regime/strategy change (which doesn't seem likely)...

[Schneed10]

Originally Posted by redsk1

Good posts. I would like to think that our Capogists at Redskins Park already know this and have a good plan to work our way thru.

You bet they do, they've been executing this exact plan for four years now. The growth in the salary cap each year mitigates the consequences of pushing cap hits into the future.

[BleedBurgundy]

Here's a stupid question. What if we were to pull a NY Yankees and just give the finger to the Salary Cap? Is there a luxury tax? Are you not allowed to sign any other players until you're under the cap? Would Goodell just come in and shoot Danny?

[Schneed10]

Originally Posted by skinsfan69

Very good post. Every year somebody always says that The Redskins are in cap hell. And every year they re-structure the cap and go out and sign guys.

Peter King is a tool. I'll never ever forget when Old Ball Coach got hired and King said Danny Weurfel (sp?) was going to be the next Kurt Warner. I don't believe anything that comes out of his mouth.

One thing about writers... they're not trained as accountants or financial analysts. Peter King's a pretty smart guy and I actually have a lot of respect for him, but in the end, he's trained to write.

That's why it's so hard to find any writers out there who actually understand the cap. If any of them make any comments on the Skins cap situation, it's always wise to take it with a grain of salt.

Hit up the Warpath's cap page, because CC has all the info right there. I'll be here to analyze it and such. La Canfora usually has valid information, but that's because he's referencing someone (an accountant) who keeps the numbers very tightly. If you see La Canfora starting to muse about what the Skins could do, take it with a grain. If you see him stating what the numbers look like, then that piece is reliable.

[Schneed10]

Originally Posted by BleedBurgundy

Here's a stupid question. What if we were to pull a NY Yankees and just give the finger to the Salary Cap? Is there a luxury tax? Are you not allowed to sign any other players until you're under the cap? Would Goodell just come in and shoot Danny?

The NFL's salary cap is a hard cap.

In baseball, the consequences for being over the cap is a luxury tax. If you want to be over the cap, you just have to pony up the bucks in taxes. Same in the NBA.

But in the NFL, teams are required to stay under the cap. It's a hard cap. I've never seen a team violate this, so I'm not sure what the consequences are, but I believe they are severe, like forfeiting lots of draft picks.

[GTripp0012]

Springs is pretty much a goner too, IMO. Todd Wade has a high cap number for a backup, although he's likely safe one more year.

Springs saves a million or so this year, but more importantly, takes him off the books for the future.

The biggest deal this year is that we simply won't have the money to go out next season and make a splash in free agency. No longer will we be able to outbid other teams for talent.

However, we should have no issue keeping the contributors around for the foreseeable future. The only way we can improve this team though is with the development of young talent.

[skinsfan69]

Originally Posted by GTripp0012

Springs is pretty much a goner too, IMO. Todd Wade has a high cap number for a backup, although he's likely safe one more year.

Springs saves a million or so this year, but more importantly, takes him off the books for the future.

The biggest deal this year is that we simply won't have the money to go out next season and make a splash in free agency. No longer will we be able to outbid other teams for talent.

However, we should have no issue keeping the contributors around for the foreseeable future. The only way we can improve this team though is with the development of young talent.

You hit it right on the money. Perhaps we can add some guys through FA here and there. And some of the draft picks in 08 pan out. But the young core guys like JC, Heyer, Cooley, Rocky, Carlos, Landry, Montgomery, and so on, all of these guys are just going to have to get better and play better.

[GTripp0012]

If you haven't read my thread from March, I feel that the information I put in it is still very relevant to the Skins current situation:

http://www.redskinswarpath.com/locke...situation.html

The Redskins, however, have definitely made moves for the future since then designed to getting dead cap guys off our books for next season. You can bet your bottom dollar that Springs and Lloyd will follow to get their cap numbers off the books for 2009 and 2010. My $20 million figure is pretty much in line with King's figure.

Since then, Cooley has been resigned.

My main point from that post still remains: getting respected veteran FA help from other teams is not plausible. Signings like Randall Godfrey, who was a consistent contributor for a bunch of teams before coming here, are still plausible. But bringing in guys like London Fletcher and Fred Smoot simply won't be happening this offseason. Just not enough cap dollars available to lure them here.

Plus, getting rid of Lloyd is so much more important.

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by skinsfan69

You hit it right on the money. Perhaps we can add some guys through FA here and there. And some of the draft picks in 08 pan out. But the young core guys like JC, Heyer, Cooley, Rocky, Carlos, Landry, Montgomery, and so on, all of these guys are just going to have to get better and play better.

Yep.

The big question going into next year is can the development of those select young guys offset or even exceed the decline of the steady vets on this team?

Based on position value, such as Quarterback, I would argue that yes, they will offset them.