Redskins trade for Jason Taylor (updated)

[SmootSmack]

So if we did move Evans up to starter who would back him up then?

[Beemnseven]

I know they had to make this move, but let's not forget what put them in this position in the first place...

This is what happens when you depend on 35 year-old guy season after season who has spent 13 years at the most violent position on the football field. All this crap about being a "great locker room leader" sure sounds great now, huh? Suppose this front office hadn't ignored the defensive end position at the upper end of the draft for the past, oh, ELEVEN years?

So what we've done is replace a 35 year-old guy with a 34 year-old guy who'd rather be making movies and they've lost a high draft pick in the process.

Wonderful.

[jdlea]

Originally Posted by SmootSmack

So if we did move Evans up to starter who would back him up then?

Cedric Wilson man, the DE equivalent of Anthony Mix and Robert McCune

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by Slingin Sammy 33

Where does this metric come from? I don't see how you can accurately predicit that a single 2nd round pick gives a team 2-3 wins over his rookie contract? Way too many variables to factor in. Maybe at QB, but it don't see how you could do this at any other position. This is not baseball or basketball. Football is the ultimate team sport and one player can't win games almost single-handed (outside of a Brady/Manning type QB or dominant pass rusher like LT or Reggie White).

Well, the exact win total is based on some work I've been doing to convert value to team into a win estimate.

For example, if we consider Jon Kitna to be the standard for a starting QB, with most teams having better options, (I just picked a guy who's got a readily available skill set, and doesn't do too much to hurt his team), we can estimate that Tom Brady was worth about 5 wins more than Kitna-level last year alone. Essentially saying that the Patriots, with the same schedule, same team, but Jon Kitna at QB, would have been an 11-5 team.

The value metrics are readily available at places like footballoutsiders.com, profootballreference.com's blog, KC Joyner's articles on ESPN.com, and Brian Burke's Advanced Football Stats blog.

There's always going to be slight disagreement among the systems about certain players value, but generally these four sources paint me a pretty good picture of just how valuable a player is.

Anyway, I'm most concerned with how valuable a rookies' first 4 years in the league are for a few reasons: 1) it's a good indicator of how good he will be, and 2) that's how long in which his draft position will determine how much he exceeds his value by.

For a second rounder, in his 2nd-4th years in the league, we know that he's likely to be better than a replacement level player, and a key contributor on this team. Everything I've done says that a second round pick who doesn't bust out of the league, but also fails to become a superstar will be worth not quite a win per season on his rookie deal.

So I'm estimating over a large sample when I say the average second rounder is worth 2-3 wins over his rookie deal. About a third of the second round selections will be less than that, and a third will be more than that. But that's the expectation for a second round selection, and expectation is really the only thing we are dealing with here.

[GTripp0012]

By the same estimations, Derek Anderson was worth a single win over the Kitna-line in 2007.

I've got the day off today so I'm trying to do some work to see if I can look at the differences between Daniels' value and Taylor's value and see just how much better the Redskins are now than they we're before camp yesterday.

[skinsfan69]

Originally Posted by SmootSmack

So if we did move Evans up to starter who would back him up then?

James, Jackson, Wilson and pick up someone off the waiver wire.

[Sheriff Gonna Getcha]

Originally Posted by jdlea

Cedric Wilson man, the DE equivalent of Anthony Mix and Robert McCune

You mean Chris Wilson, right?

[Hog1]

Originally Posted by SKINSnCANES

Jason Taylor will make everyone around him better. We had no one worth double teaming on our line. Carter stepped up at the end of the year and may have started to get double teamed. If anything now jason taylor will continue to be double teamed and open up opportunities for the other 3 linemen to get to the QB.

Ive always thought Andre Carter was in the mold of Jason Taylor, but hadnt learned all the technique yet. Well now he will learn first hand. No one heard of Adowale Ogunleye (sp) and Taylor turned him into a sack machine by takign the double teams to his side.

Im sooo happy we finally have a pass rush with our front four. We need that pressure even more so being thin at corner.

YES, you have it. He will make everybody around him better!!! As you say, he will create oppurtunities for the down lineman..........and for Carter.
JT is a good guy. Monster on the field, AND in the locker room as well . Pretty good "fox-trot" as well
Whatever he has left in the tank, we WILL get. That is who he is. My only regret is.......we do not play the Fins this season
nice work Vinny!!!!!!!!

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by SmootSmack

So if we did move Evans up to starter who would back him up then?

James/Wilson.

I do think we needed to add something at DE after Buzbee also got hurt. We could have waited for Philadelphia to shave one DE off their roster, lord knows they have way too many for their own good. Maybe we would have gotten Jerome McDougal at a bargain basement price.

It's moot now, and we'll never know for sure, but I really think we would have been fine.

[jdlea]

Originally Posted by Sheriff Gonna Getcha

You mean Chris Wilson, right?

Yeah, my bad, I thought the first name was wrong, but was way too lazy to go look it up...lol

[skinsnut]

Originally Posted by Beemnseven

I know they had to make this move, but let's not forget what put them in this position in the first place...

This is what happens when you depend on 35 year-old guy season after season who has spent 13 years at the most violent position on the football field. All this crap about being a "great locker room leader" sure sounds great now, huh? Suppose this front office hadn't ignored the defensive end position at the upper end of the draft for the past, oh, ELEVEN years?

So what we've done is replace a 35 year-old guy with a 34 year-old guy who'd rather be making movies and they've lost a high draft pick in the process.
Wonderful.

Though I can see your point....2 major factors...Jason Taylor is WAY better than Daniels...count the probowls AND we had no other legitimate option.

[skinsnut]

Originally Posted by skinsfan69

James, Jackson, Wilson and pick up someone off the waiver wire.

Are you out of your mind?
James in injured, Jackson is a nobody, Wilson is strictly a pass specialist.
We needed a valid starter, options were limited to zero.

I'm not thrilled about giving up a 2 but we really didn't have any other options rather than hoping one of our guys (or a FA) suddenly got 2-3 times more effective overnight

[SmootSmack]

Originally Posted by Beemnseven

I know they had to make this move, but let's not forget what put them in this position in the first place...

This is what happens when you depend on 35 year-old guy season after season who has spent 13 years at the most violent position on the football field. All this crap about being a "great locker room leader" sure sounds great now, huh? Suppose this front office hadn't ignored the defensive end position at the upper end of the draft for the past, oh, ELEVEN years?

So what we've done is replace a 35 year-old guy with a 34 year-old guy who'd rather be making movies and they've lost a high draft pick in the process.

Wonderful.

I see your points. But it's not like Daniels has been deteriorating over the years. He's missed one game in the last three years. It's not unreasonable to think he had at least a year left. Plus, while some want to dismiss him as a practice squad scrub, the Redskins were counting on Buzbee to take a major step this year at least from a depth standpoint.

On a somewhat related note, will be interesting to see how much PT Lorenzo Alexander gets against the run on the d-line now.

[GhettoDogAllStars]

I saw this news, and my eyes nearly popped out of my head.

Good work, front office.

[Slingin Sammy 33]

Originally Posted by GTripp0012

For example, if we consider Jon Kitna to be the standard for a starting QB, with most teams having better options, (I just picked a guy who's got a readily available skill set, and doesn't do too much to hurt his team), we can estimate that Tom Brady was worth about 5 wins more than Kitna-level last year alone. Essentially saying that the Patriots, with the same schedule, same team, but Jon Kitna at QB, would have been an 11-5 team.

The value metrics are readily available at places like footballoutsiders.com, profootballreference.com's blog, KC Joyner's articles on ESPN.com, and Brian Burke's Advanced Football Stats blog.

There's always going to be slight disagreement among the systems about certain players value, but generally these four sources paint me a pretty good picture of just how valuable a player is.

Anyway, I'm most concerned with how valuable a rookies' first 4 years in the league are for a few reasons: 1) it's a good indicator of how good he will be, and 2) that's how long in which his draft position will determine how much he exceeds his value by.

For a second rounder, in his 2nd-4th years in the league, we know that he's likely to be better than a replacement level player, and a key contributor on this team. Everything I've done says that a second round pick who doesn't bust out of the league, but also fails to become a superstar will be worth not quite a win per season on his rookie deal.

So I'm estimating over a large sample when I say the average second rounder is worth 2-3 wins over his rookie deal. About a third of the second round selections will be less than that, and a third will be more than that. But that's the expectation for a second round selection, and expectation is really the only thing we are dealing with here.

IMO these numbers are pretty much a wild approximation or SWAG and not useful at all, but you're quoting them like they're well accepted throughout the media and sports world. The QB rating formula is less complicated and tells you a lot more than this stuff. These ratings give little account to the DL & OL because most of what they do doesn't show on stats.

Stats are important, but the interpretations and extrapolations made from these stats tells a FO guy, GM, or coach next to nothing that they don't already know. T. Brady is better than Kitna....my 15 yr. old could tell you that. Hell, the computer programmers at EA know that. How do you account for a QB or WR who plays on a team with a bad OL, how about a good CB with a bad DL. Would Archie Manning have been a Peyton Manning if he wasn't on bad teams? Who knows? Stats are important but IMO these are taking the interpretation too far.

Bottom line is; we gave up the equivalent of probably the # 50 overall pick in the draft, under duress, for a Pro Bowl caliber player at DE. If JT is productive for two seasons, not only is he helping the pass defense, but he's given us some flexibilty in when/how we address needs at CB, DE, DT and LB in the 2009 & 2010 off-seasons.