ESPN: Clayton Expects Skins to Tender Campbell for a 1st and 3rd

[Dirtbag59]

Originally Posted by BigHairedAristocrat

sorry, i changed my example scenario halfway through and didnt go back and revalue everything. well i did, i just missed a few things.

Yeah like in that trade with the Rams JC is valued around 380 points (52 Overall)

And in my scenario from a trade value perspective (which I still say is subjective the trade looks like this).

Redskins give up:
2nd Round pick 52nd overall (380 points) - Jason Campbell
Two 4th round picks (valued at 100 points each) - 2011 3rd Rounder and 2010 4th Rounder.

Redskins get:
Rams 2nd Round Pick 33rd overall (580 points)

[Dirtbag59]

Originally Posted by BigHairedAristocrat

sorry, i changed my example scenario halfway through (when i read a blurb on extremeskins about the rams being interested in Campbell) and didnt go back and revalue everything. well i did, i just missed a few things... you are right dirtbag, i do owe you a few points. i would go back and change what I saw saying, but it would make things even more confusing.

Essentially, if we traded with the Rams, i'd view a fair trade as being:

Rams get:
Jason Campbell

Redskins get:
Rams 3rd round pick

OR

Rams get:
1. Jason Campbell
2. 4th overall pick in the 2010 draft

Redskins get:
1. 1st overall pick in the 2011 draft

In that scenario, the Rams would get a starting QB and use the 4th overall pick on Okung and the skins would trade down with a team that really wanted Suh or McCoy and nab another teams 1st and 2nd round picks.

If we're going to move Campbell, i'd rather see us trade him for a 3rd, trade down 5-8 spots in the first and pick up another 3rd round pick.

Ha ha, it's alright. I just spent the last hour or something like that trying to figure out how much a 2011 pick is worth in terms of 2010 value and I kept going back and fourth. It really is simple but for some reason I wasn't able to figure it out. That first scenario though is actually pretty realistic in terms of a straight up 1:1 trade but for me to part with JC17 I would need to find some way to yield a 2nd round pick without giving up a 2nd round pick or better (ie 1st rounder).

What I was thinking with the scenario I posted was with getting two high second round picks we can draft a QB and get two starting quality lineman in the form of either two tackles or a tackle and highly valued interior guy like Pouncey (C/G Florida).

However with that 3rd round scenario are you thinking about trading down and picking up an additional 3rd round pick giving us two third rounders and in turn trading back up into the second or staying pat and taking two players in the third?

[Lotus]

^^ I'm not the world's greatest JC fan. But you guys are seriously undervaluing JC with your trade proposals. A 3rd rounder for a QB with a lifetime passer rating in the 80's and with significant starting experience? Some other team will value him eventually. We should hang on to him until we get that high value.

[tryfuhl]

Originally Posted by Lotus

^^ I'm not the world's greatest JC fan. But you guys are seriously undervaluing JC with your trade proposals. A 3rd rounder for a QB with a lifetime passer rating in the 80's and with significant starting experience? Some other team will value him eventually. We should hang on to him until we get that high value.

That's why we were able to trade him away last year for a 2nd right?

[Dirtbag59]

Originally Posted by Lotus

^^ I'm not the world's greatest JC fan. But you guys are seriously undervaluing JC with your trade proposals. A 3rd rounder for a QB with a lifetime passer rating in the 80's and with significant starting experience? Some other team will value him eventually. We should hang on to him until we get that high value.

Are you talking to me or BHA? I mean I know I sort of endorsed BHA's 3rd round proposal but I had a different scenario. Ironically though I believe the QB's that fetch second round picks are either truly seasoned veterans (who usually get traded away for much higher a la Jay Cutler), smart teams dealing with dumb teams (Eagles getting AJ Feely for a 2nd round pick from Miami), or guys that have shown flashes (Matt Schuab and Matt Cassel).

Cassel was part of an 11-5 Patriots team (11-4 in games Cassel started) and that was pretty much his only year playing. Matt Schuab lit teams up in the preseason and then played well when given a chance during the regular season. However at the same time there was a sort of mystery. It's the same reason why guys that are valued as top picks (like Matt Leinart and Jakim Noah in the NBA) then go on to drop a few spots the following year.

It's sad but the more time scouts have to dissect a player the lower their value, well more so when they're initially valued high. Obviously we have guys every year that are valued as 3rd or 4th round picks during preseason only to end up as 1st round picks by the time the draft roles around.

Could JC fetch a 2nd round pick? Possibly but I really think teams are scared by the fact that he has a relatively large body of work and only so much to show for it. But hey you never know. All we need is to get a call from Al Davis or Ralph Wilson and we're raking in the picks.

On second thought if we can convince Jason to change his first name to Matt then I think we could grantee a second round pick for Campbell. In short Matt Campbell is worth more then Jason Campbell.

[Lotus]

Originally Posted by Dirtbag359

Are you talking to me or BHA? I mean I know I sort of endorsed BHA's 3rd round proposal but I had a different scenario. Ironically though I believe the QB's that fetch second round picks are either truly seasoned veterans (who usually get traded away for much higher a la Jay Cutler), smart teams dealing with dumb teams (Eagles getting AJ Feely for a 2nd round pick from Miami), or guys that have shown flashes (Matt Schuab and Matt Cassel).

Cassel was part of an 11-5 Patriots team (11-4 in games Cassel started) and that was pretty much his only year playing. Matt Schuab lit teams up in the preseason and then played well when given a chance during the regular season. However at the same time there was a sort of mystery. It's the same reason why guys that are valued as top picks (like Matt Leinart and Jakim Noah in the NBA) then go on to drop a few spots the following year.

It's sad but the more time scouts have to dissect a player the lower their value, well more so when they're initially valued high. Obviously we have guys every year that are valued as 3rd or 4th round picks during preseason only to end up as 1st round picks by the time the draft roles around.

Could JC fetch a 2nd round pick? Possibly but I really think teams are scared by the fact that he has a relatively large body of work and only so much to show for it. But hey you never know. All we need is to get a call from Al Davis or Ralph Wilson and we're raking in the picks.

On second thought if we can convince Jason to change his first name to Matt then I think we could grantee a second round pick for Campbell. In short Matt Campbell is worth more then Jason Campbell.

1) JC is a "truly seasoned veteran." And he has "shown flashes." Sooner or later there will be a personnel guy out there who thinks that JC unfairly has been mismanaged and/or has underachieved due to his offensive line.

2) Your example of Feely is a good one. He attracted a #2 pick. Hold out long enough and someone will offer that for JC (someone like Al Davis or Ralph Wilson, as you mention).

[CRedskinsRule]

Originally Posted by Dirtbag359

Are you talking to me or BHA? I mean I know I sort of endorsed BHA's 3rd round proposal but I had a different scenario. Ironically though I believe the QB's that fetch second round picks are either truly seasoned veterans (who usually get traded away for much higher a la Jay Cutler), smart teams dealing with dumb teams (Eagles getting AJ Feely for a 2nd round pick from Miami), or guys that have shown flashes (Matt Schuab and Matt Cassel).

Cassel was part of an 11-5 Patriots team (11-4 in games Cassel started) and that was pretty much his only year playing. Matt Schuab lit teams up in the preseason and then played well when given a chance during the regular season. However at the same time there was a sort of mystery. It's the same reason why guys that are valued as top picks (like Matt Leinart and Jakim Noah in the NBA) then go on to drop a few spots the following year.

It's sad but the more time scouts have to dissect a player the lower their value, well more so when they're initially valued high. Obviously we have guys every year that are valued as 3rd or 4th round picks during preseason only to end up as 1st round picks by the time the draft roles around.

Could JC fetch a 2nd round pick? Possibly but I really think teams are scared by the fact that he has a relatively large body of work and only so much to show for it. But hey you never know. All we need is to get a call from Al Davis or Ralph Wilson and we're raking in the picks.

On second thought if we can convince Jason to change his first name to Matt then I think we could grantee a second round pick for Campbell. In short Matt Campbell is worth more then Jason Campbell.

I will be interested to see what the market bears out for JC, if we ever do. I understand the points you make, and generally agree that the book on JC has basically been written, but I can't help but think there is a team out there, who will look at him, look at the mess that has been the Redskins, and decide to give this guy a shot. I don't think a 2nd round pick for a solid starter is that over the top.

[Lotus]

Originally Posted by tryfuhl

That's why we were able to trade him away last year for a 2nd right?

Even if that rumor about a number 2 pick were true, remember who was shopping for the Redskins groceries then. Other GM's may have perceived Vinny as "fleece-able."

[tryfuhl]

I just don't see anyone trying to give a straight up 2nd for JC. Once you start mixing in other players/picks maybe you could work them a bit in that direction, but that's about it.

[The Goat]

Originally Posted by Lotus

^^ I'm not the world's greatest JC fan. But you guys are seriously undervaluing JC with your trade proposals. A 3rd rounder for a QB with a lifetime passer rating in the 80's and with significant starting experience? Some other team will value him eventually. We should hang on to him until we get that high value.

Lotus I think JC's value has been way higher within the franchise than elsewhere in the league. Hard to tell if that's the case now w/ Shanahan/Allen in the driver's seat. But I doubt very much they expect a valuable trade for Jason alone...whenever the franchise shopped him in the past in basically amounted to zero interest for him. In fact I think the only way he gets traded is part of a larger deal.

Also man look at where Jason could have "connections?" Zorn is working w/ a well established QB/offense. Gibbs only connection is to DC. Where is Saunders? Jason just doesn't have a lot of leads to look for.

I said it a couple weeks ago and think about it more and more...I could see JC out of the league completely soon if Shanny dumps him. Jason sees himself far better than basically everyone else does (who matters in the NFL...sorry GTripp ).

[Lotus]

^ Well, fair enough guys. Like I said, I am not JC's greatest supporter, so I'm not going to push the argument too far. Let's see what happens.

[over the mountain]

i could see campbell netting us a 2nd rounder in some type of package deal. maybe with the bills.

[The Goat]

Originally Posted by Lotus

^ Well, fair enough guys. Like I said, I am not JC's greatest supporter, so I'm not going to push the argument too far. Let's see what happens.

And to be fair I have been a huge supporter. I also still know the best scenario for everyone is JC becomes ProBowl QB in the B & G this year.

[tryfuhl]

Originally Posted by The Goat

Lotus I think JC's value has been way higher within the franchise than elsewhere in the league. Hard to tell if that's the case now w/ Shanahan/Allen in the driver's seat. But I doubt very much they expect a valuable trade for Jason alone...whenever the franchise shopped him in the past in basically amounted to zero interest for him. In fact I think the only way he gets traded is part of a larger deal.

Also man look at where Jason could have "connections?" Zorn is working w/ a well established QB/offense. Gibbs only connection is to DC. Where is Saunders? Jason just doesn't have a lot of leads to look for.

I said it a couple weeks ago and think about it more and more...I could see JC out of the league completely soon if Shanny dumps him. Jason sees himself far better than basically everyone else does (who matters in the NFL...sorry GTripp ).

pretty much any team would be thrilled to have JC as a backup, he won't be out of the league unless he demands to start and holds out otherwise

there are spots for him even if teams aren't clawing at the gates to get to him, including starting spots

you can't expect jc to say "well it's up to coach to decide if i'm good enough to start" .. mentioning potential incompetence is career suicide

[Dirtbag59]

Originally Posted by The Goat

And to be fair I have been a huge supporter. I also still know the best scenario for everyone is JC becomes ProBowl QB in the B & G this year.

Personally I can't decide if Campbell is going to be David Garrard or Matt Schuab. Depends on what day you ask me.