Next years QB

[Hog1]

Oh Please!
There.......must be some way to twist this back into Dan's wheelhouse?
It's the Burgundy and Gold tradition....

[DYoungJelly]

A really interesting monologue by Keim where he tosses out some passer rating and sack statistics as they relate to time in the pocket and talks about the possibility of committing to Griffin this year with upgrades in the line, TEs and backs:

How to make Robert Griffin III a pocket passer - Washington Redskins Blog - ESPN

The jist is that Griffin had a passer rating of about 70 when he had 2.5 seconds or more. He says that more time doesn't necessarily equate to being more effective.

He also said that 21 of his 33 sacks came after 2.5 seconds or more.

There was some passionate discussion a few weeks ago comparing sack rates, passer rating, and interceptions between Griffin and Cousins.

The sack stat, I believe is a lot more concerning than the passer rating with Griffin's tendency to get hurt badly.

I'm really curious about the "why" on both.

I'm guessing there weren't a ton of 7 step drops called last year. I wonder how many were broken plays.

Thoughts?

[30gut]

Originally Posted by DYoungJelly

A really interesting monologue by Keim where he tosses out some passer rating and sack statistics as they relate to time in the pocket and talks about the possibility of committing to Griffin this year with upgrades in the line, TEs and backs:

How to make Robert Griffin III a pocket passer - Washington Redskins Blog - ESPN

The jist is that Griffin had a passer rating of about 70 when he had 2.5 seconds or more. He says that more time doesn't necessarily equate to being more effective.....

I'm really curious about the "why" on both.

I'm guessing there weren't a ton of 7 step drops called last year. I wonder how many were broken plays.

Thoughts?

GP and thanks for passing along the article.

Awhile back I looked into some of the advance metric numbers from PFF and Football Outsiders for our QB group from last year (Rob, Kirk and Colt).

And it tough to boil everything down into a quick sound bite like Keim had in the above article. BUT he's right about the pass protection especially form the TEs and RBs which was terrible.

On the point about Griffin's passer rating 69 (PFF has it at 66 ftr) with 2.5s he's right but it doesn't mean that Griffin neccesarily "struggles" when he has more time. Just for comparison sake Kirk passer rating with 2.5s + is 62 and Colt McCoy is 106.
I think these numbers could be indicative of what happens with our QBs after the initial progression doesn't show open more then how they respond to having more time as Keim said. I think breakdown by time +/- 2.5s shows why Jay likes Colt; the stats seem to indicate Colt is far more productive passer after the first progression and/or when the play breaks down.

On the sacks....Colt actually has the highest sack rate (3.5) in the +2.5s time frame (although only by a hair over Griffin) Kirk had the lowest sack rate

I think this topic could warrant its on thread but...I missed the thread with the previous discussion that I missed and don't want to start another.

Cheers

[JoeRedskin]

^ Nice analysis.

Sent from my VS985 4G using Tapatalk

[DYoungJelly]

Originally Posted by 30gut

GP and thanks for passing along the article.

Awhile back I looked into some of the advance metric numbers from PFF and Football Outsiders for our QB group from last year (Rob, Kirk and Colt).

And it tough to boil everything down into a quick sound bite like Keim had in the above article. BUT he's right about the pass protection especially form the TEs and RBs which was terrible.

On the point about Griffin's passer rating 69 (PFF has it at 66 ftr) with 2.5s he's right but it doesn't mean that Griffin neccesarily "struggles" when he has more time. Just for comparison sake Kirk passer rating with 2.5s + is 62 and Colt McCoy is 106.
I think these numbers could be indicative of what happens with our QBs after the initial progression doesn't show open more then how they respond to having more time as Keim said. I think breakdown by time +/- 2.5s shows why Jay likes Colt; the stats seem to indicate Colt is far more productive passer after the first progression and/or when the play breaks down.

On the sacks....Colt actually has the highest sack rate (3.5) in the +2.5s time frame (although only by a hair over Griffin) Kirk had the lowest sack rate

I think this topic could warrant its on thread but...I missed the thread with the previous discussion that I missed and don't want to start another.

Cheers

Very cool.

What was Cousins' sack rate after 2.5 seconds?

Based on what you observed from the advanced metrics, do you see any situational patterns on Cousins' interceptions?

[redskinsfan1980]

I think that Kirk Cousins could be good if he had a running game, bigger targets, and a defense. Last season he through a lot of picks, but he threw some tds too. I think he'll be benefit under a second season in the offense. We should have a open qb competition. As far as I'm concern RG3 hasn't shown me anything that would suggest that he's a franchise qb. He does have tremendous talent. So I'm not going to count him out. But I'm not optimistic about him or his future. If RG3 is named the starter it should be because he beat out all the other qbs on the roster. Our decision to start him shouldn't have anything to do with how much we gave up for him. I have a feelings that RG3 will be the starter because we want all of those picks we gave up to pay off. And not because he's the best qb on the roster.

[30gut]

2.5 seconds or less:
% of throws under 2.5 seconds/Attempts......Comp%.....Sacks.....QB rating
Rob...........................49%/122 atts.............80............7...............100
Colt...........................51%/74 atts..............74............2................. 89
Kirk............................60%/126 atts............70............2................102

Kirk threw more then half his passes in 2.5 or less had the lowest comp% and just edges out Griff in QB rating.
Griff threw about half his passes in less then 2.5 and had the highest comp% second highest rating but took the most sacks.
Colt again threw about half his passes in less then 2.5 had the middle comp% but lowest QB rating.

2.6 seconds or more:
% of throws over 2.6/Attempts.....Comp%.........Sacks...............QB rating
Rob........51%/92 atts.....................53..............26....... ...................66
Colt........49%/54 atts....................67...............15....... .................106
Kirk.........40%/78 atts...................49.................6....... ...................62



Colt separates himself highest QB rating and highest comp % but took sacks about the same rate as Griff ~3.5 snaps/sacks.
Kirk lowest comp% lowest QB rating but also the lowest sack ratio.
Griff was in the middle in terms of comp% and QB rating but like Colt took sacks.

[30gut]

Originally Posted by DYoungJelly

What was Cousins' sack rate after 2.5 seconds?

1 sack per 13 drop backs over 2.5s

Originally Posted by DYoungJelly

Based on what you observed from the advanced metrics, do you see any situational patterns on Cousins' interceptions?

Nah I don't see any pattern from the times stats for Kirk's interceptions but I would guess they have a negative impact on his passer rating in the +2.5s category.

[CRedskinsRule]

Originally Posted by redskinsfan1980

I think that Kirk Cousins could be good if he had a running game, bigger targets, and a defense. Last season he through a lot of picks, but he threw some tds too. I think he'll be benefit under a second season in the offense. We should have a open qb competition. As far as I'm concern RG3 hasn't shown me anything that would suggest that he's a franchise qb. He does have tremendous talent. So I'm not going to count him out. But I'm not optimistic about him or his future. If RG3 is named the starter it should be because he beat out all the other qbs on the roster. Our decision to start him shouldn't have anything to do with how much we gave up for him. I have a feelings that RG3 will be the starter because we want all of those picks we gave up to pay off. And not because he's the best qb on the roster.

At this point those picks better be considered a sunk cost and not factor into any decision with RG3. I personally don't think they will.

[Defensewins]

I do not think it is accurate to just look at the stats that you put up and think is a realistic and legitimate comparison. You are only as good as who you play against, in this case they are Qb's, so what defenses did they play against?
Cousins played against two of the top defenses Seattle and Cardinals. two average defenses Giants and Eagles and one bad one Jax. Won 1 and lost 4. But he threw 10 TD's and 9 int's.
RGIII Played against 4 bad non-playoff teams: Tampa, Houston, Minnesota and Jax and one good team in SF. Did not win a single winnable game and most embarrassingly threw 2 td's and was sacked a ton.
Another huge factor the stats do not show is Gruden did not run the same plays for all three QB's. I remember even Griffen complaining very loudly on the sideline to Coach Gruden after he was replaced for Cousin, saying 'why didn't you call those plays for me when I was in?'
Clearly RGIII was being protected from himself and his inability to absorb and play the entire playbook. Gruden called a more simplified version of the playbook for Griffen because he could not handle it. Cousins was asked to do a lot more, proof is the fact that RGIII completing 21 more passes but Cousins threw for more yards and a lot TD's.

[ethat001]

Originally Posted by Defensewins

I do not think it is accurate to just look at the stats that you put up and think is a realistic and legitimate comparison. You are only as good as who you play against, in this case they are Qb's, so what defenses did they play against?
Cousins played against two of the top defenses Seattle and Cardinals. two average defenses Giants and Eagles and one bad one Jax. Won 1 and lost 4. But he threw 10 TD's and 9 int's.
RGIII Played against 4 bad non-playoff teams: Tampa, Houston, Minnesota and Jax and one good team in SF. Did not win a single winnable game and most embarrassingly threw 2 td's and was sacked a ton.
Another huge factor the stats do not show is Gruden did not run the same plays for all three QB's. I remember even Griffen complaining very loudly on the sideline to Coach Gruden after he was replaced for Cousin, saying 'why didn't you call those plays for me when I was in?'
Clearly RGIII was being protected from himself and his inability to absorb and play the entire playbook. Gruden called a more simplified version of the playbook for Griffen because he could not handle it. Cousins was asked to do a lot more, proof is the fact that RGIII completing 21 more passes but Cousins threw for more yards and a lot TD's.

Nice post. This is why the coaches should know more about talent eval than these stats will ever show, always. Given differences in schemes, called plays, defenses, injuries around to OL/WR/opposing offenses, clutch plays vs 4th quarter trash time, etc. PFF and other websites purport to take all of it into account, but it's too complex to put into one chart.

[DYoungJelly]

Stat comparison from both Philly games last year:

1st game Cousins:

Washington Redskins vs. Philadelphia Eagles - Box Score - September 21, 2014 - ESPN

2nd Game Griffin:

Philadelphia Eagles vs. Washington Redskins - Box Score - December 20, 2014 - ESPN

Cousins -------------------------------Griffin
30/48----------------------------------16/23 Completions/ Attempts
427 Passing yards --------------------220 Passing yards
3 TD------------------------------------0 TD
1 INT-----------------------------------1 INT
0 QB HITS -----------------------------7 QB HITS
0 Sacks---------------------------------2 Sacks

Redskins Team rushing:
23/84 Attempts/Yards-----------------29/100 Attempts/Yards
3.0 yard average-----------------------3.4 yard average


Griffin edged Cousins in the only stat that mattered, the final score.

I love Cousins' stat line from the first game, but I love the outcome from the second game more. The defense did play a role in the outcome of both games.

Despite the numbers, JG didn't have enough confidence in Cousins to put him in at the end of the season.

If Griffin is truly our starter going into 2015, then our most pressing need is a reliable 2nd string QB that can come in when the next catastrophic injury happens.

[redskinsfan1980]

Originally Posted by CRedskinsRule

At this point those picks better be considered a sunk cost and not factor into any decision with RG3. I personally don't think they will.

If he wasn't named the starter going into the offseason then I would be more optimistic. We all know he's done nothing to earn the starting spot. The only reason they would do such a thing is because they're looking for some returns on their investment. In my opinion, it's totally alright to show patience, but this guy has been 100% pure garbage for the last two seasons. What makes me so pessimistic is that I haven't seen not one sign of improvement. Not only hasn't he not learned a thing about playing qb, but he still hasn't learnt to keep his mouth shut.

[JoeRedskin]

In fairness, in the last two seasons, Griffin has also (1) missed an entire offseason due to his ACL injury; and (2) missed significant time due to an injury that would been a season ender for most folks. In addition, the nature of the injuries required an alteration to the way he fundamentally played the position (i.e. couldn't rely on his explosiveness and escapability any more).

Trust me, I fully get the guys faults when it comes to reading defenses, working progressions, holding the ball to long, receptiveness to coaching, etc. At the same time, neither he nor Kirk have separated themselves from the other in terms of their play - each is flawed. From his athletic ability, arm-strength and potential for improvement as he (hopefully) learns to be more of a drop back style QB, I would suggest Griffin still has the higher upside than Kirk who is playing the same offense (essentially) that he played in college and is making the same mental mistakes he made then.

At this point, neither is someone you look at and say "Oh yeah. He's The Guy." I believe Griffin gets the nod, not b/c of his draft cost/status, but b/c he simply is (still) the more physically gifted player at the position.

[CRedskinsRule]

Naming him starter was simply to stop the media from it's incessant hounding (imo). And Redskins fans in general are never going to be content with any qb. That's been proven time and again.

The team seems to be making appropriate football moves regarding players, so if they start Griffin, I believe it's because he's the best option. If they don't then he wasn't. I very seriously doubt the draft picks factor in to Gruden/SM's thinking at all since they didn't trade for him, and the picks won't be recaptured regardless of whether he starts, sits, or is traded.