The Mid Round QB fallacy

[Paintrain]

Without picking sides in the Bradford/Clausen vs. Okung at #4 pick, it bugs me when I see people say to 'just pick up a QB in the mid rounds' like that's a recipe for success in the league.. Doing a little research (very little) it's pretty clear that it's not.. Of the playoff teams the past 5 years, the QB breakdown is (non first round QB in parenthesis):

2009, 7-12 playoff QB were first round picks (Brees, Warner, Brady, Romo, Favre)
2008, 9-12 playoff QB were first round picks (Warner, T. Jackson, Delhomme)
2007, 5-12 playoff QB were first round picks (Favre, T. Collins, Brady, Garrard, Romo, Garcia, Hasselbeck)
2006, 7-12 playoff QB were first round picks (Brady, Brees, Romo, Hasselbeck, T. Green)
2005, 6-12 playoff QB were first round picks (Brady, Plummer, Brunell, Hasselbeck, Garcia, Delhomme)

So nearly 60% of the playoff QB over the past 5 years have been 1st round picks. The exceptions have been the greatest 6th round pick in league history (Brady) 4 undrafted FA (Romo, Delhomme, Garcia, Warner)-including perhaps one of the most unlikely stories of all time in Warner. Three second round picks (Brees, Favre & Jackson) and 5 late round picks who eventually became something after playing behind established QB for years (Garrard, T. Green, Collins, Brunell, Hasselbeck).

So unless we're hoping for another miracle (Brady, Warner, Romo, Delhomme) or a slightly undervalued gem (Favre, Brees) or are hoping to find an undiscovered star (Hasselbeck, etc) then 'picking up a QB in the mid rounds' is likely not going to yield us anything beyond mediocre football in the future.

[tryfuhl]

If it were that easy to groom a mid-rounder everyone would do it, right?

[djnemo65]

I agree. While it's clearly not absolutely necessary to find a successful QB in the first round, that is statistically your best chance. And what is clear is that you ain't hoisting any Lombardi's in today's NFL without a Probowl to Hall of Fame level QB. With rule changes favoring QB's, the day's of Trent Dilfer and Brad Johnson winning Superbowls are long gone.

[Dirtbag59]

YES!!! Thank you for bringing this up. I don't know what it is, weather it be some sort of subconscious compromise on the part of Campbell/O-Line @4 supporters or something else entirely but drafting and developing a QB is nothing like drafting and developing a lineman. With lineman you usually know within a year or two that they're going to be good with many showing lots of promise within the first year.

On top of that when you draft a lineman in rounds 3-5 you have a decent chance of that player turning into a quality starter down the line where as the only QB I can think of right now that was selected in those rounds was Matt Schuab.

The Saints have the best pair of Guards in the NFL right now in Nicks and Evans (5th and 4th respectively) with Evans being considered the premier guard in the NFL.

Keep in mind this is possibly the deepest tackle draft in years and it takes a year or two to develop a QB. If the JC experiment fails, which going into it's 6th year is a highly likely possibility then we're going to loose out on a year of drafting a QB.

Not to mention that next year we will probably have to give up picks to move up to select the QB prospect of our choosing. This time around we'll have our pick of the liter, and it's a very good liter. Certainly better then last year where now we have three established starters at our disposal, two being prospects for the top of the first when we select at 4.

In the end it all depends on how well they interview and weather or not we can get a clean bill of health from the respective doctors of Clausen and Bradford but this is our chance to finally pair a quality QB prospect with an offensive mastermind. This is the difference between hoping to make the playoffs every year and trying to win championships.

Right now I just can't see why people are so risk averse to taking a QB this year, but it seems like something I hear every year. "Bad QB class, next year will be better." Next year rolls around "Yeah I don't like these QB's next year." Basically we wind up with an infinity loop.

[Ruhskins]

Originally Posted by Paintrain

Without picking sides in the Bradford/Clausen vs. Okung at #4 pick, it bugs me when I see people say to 'just pick up a QB in the mid rounds' like that's a recipe for success in the league.. Doing a little research (very little) it's pretty clear that it's not.. Of the playoff teams the past 5 years, the QB breakdown is (non first round QB in parenthesis):

2009, 7-12 playoff QB were first round picks (Brees, Warner, Brady, Romo, Favre)
2008, 9-12 playoff QB were first round picks (Warner, T. Jackson, Delhomme)
2007, 5-12 playoff QB were first round picks (Favre, T. Collins, Brady, Garrard, Romo, Garcia, Hasselbeck)
2006, 7-12 playoff QB were first round picks (Brady, Brees, Romo, Hasselbeck, T. Green)
2005, 6-12 playoff QB were first round picks (Brady, Plummer, Brunell, Hasselbeck, Garcia, Delhomme)

So nearly 60% of the playoff QB over the past 5 years have been 1st round picks. The exceptions have been the greatest 6th round pick in league history (Brady) 4 undrafted FA (Romo, Delhomme, Garcia, Warner)-including perhaps one of the most unlikely stories of all time in Warner. Three second round picks (Brees, Favre & Jackson) and 5 late round picks who eventually became something after playing behind established QB for years (Garrard, T. Green, Collins, Brunell, Hasselbeck).

So unless we're hoping for another miracle (Brady, Warner, Romo, Delhomme) or a slightly undervalued gem (Favre, Brees) or are hoping to find an undiscovered star (Hasselbeck, etc) then 'picking up a QB in the mid rounds' is likely not going to yield us anything beyond mediocre football in the future.

Well it seems that you and whoever thinks we're going to find the next Tom Brady in the middle rounds are under the impression that we're going to turn this ship around in one season.

To me, the first-round QB should be picked up in 2011, once we have built the offensive line with a stud first-round lineman (i.e. Okung), a quality free agent, and (crossing fingers) 1 or 2 of our young lineman that (hopefully) develops into a solid starter.

While all of us hope that we can have a significant winning season (beyond 9-7) right away, in reality it is going to take one of the following things to happen, either...

a.) We pick up a QB in the first round (i.e. Clausen or Bradford) and HOPE that Shanahan can build an offensive line out of mid-round lineman and what we have left.

b.) We build our offensive line starting with the top tackle in the draft (Okung) and hope that Shanahan can develop a mid-rounder QB.

Personally, I would rather us build the line, let JC play in 2010. Then in 2011, draft your QB of the future and give him the keys to an offense that has a strong offensive line and (hopefully) a strong running game and more experienced receivers (DT, MK, and Davis).

[Dirtbag59]

Originally Posted by Ruhskins

To me, the first-round QB should be picked up in 2011, once we have built the offensive line with a stud first-round lineman (i.e. Okung), a quality free agent, and (crossing fingers) 1 or 2 of our young lineman that (hopefully) develops into a solid starter.

In that case you're willing to sacrifice a year of development on a rookie QB and a future draft pick that could easily become another starter along the offensive line to trade up for a QB prospect next year. And thats all to select a tackle in a ridiculously deep tackle class. The chance to select quality tackles comes along every year, the chance to select a top QB prospect for a team like us comes once every......5 years.

And even then it's not guaranteed that we'll get said prospect, I mean we tried like hell to trade for Jay Cutler and Mark Sanchez yet came away with neither. So whos to say we could trade up in the future to draft a QB that you'll be comfortable with?

I can personally think of plently of quality tackles that have been available for us to select over the years yet I can't find many QB's that got past us that I would love to have as starters.

[Ruhskins]

Originally Posted by Dirtbag359

YES!!! Thank you for bringing this up. I don't know what it is, weather it be some sort of subconscious compromise on the part of Campbell/O-Line @4 supporters or something else entirely but drafting and developing a QB is nothing like drafting and developing a lineman. With lineman you usually know within a year or two that they're going to be good with many showing lots of promise within the first year.

You make it sound like everyone wants to draft a lineman with #4. Even the pundits have us drafting a QB, and all this people have mancrushes on Bradford. Whether you like Campbell or not, I just don't know what else you need to see out of our offensive line for you or others to say, "Say, shouldn't we draft the top tackle?"

Originally Posted by Dirtbag359

On top of that when you draft a lineman in rounds 3-5 you have a decent chance of that player turning into a quality starter down the line where as the only QB I can think of right now that was selected in those rounds was Matt Schuab.

And if you draft a first round lineman you have the chance to get the next Ryan Clady, D'Brickashaw Ferguson, Jake Long, Joe Thomas, Jeff Otah, Michael Oher etc., etc., etc.

Originally Posted by Dirtbag359

The Saints have the best pair of Guards in the NFL right now in Nicks and Evans (5th and 4th respectively) with Evans being considered the premier guard in the NFL.

We're not talking about picking up guards in the first round, we're talking about picking up a franchise tackle.

Originally Posted by Dirtbag359

Keep in mind this is possibly the deepest tackle draft in years and it takes a year or two to develop a QB. If the JC experiment fails, which going into it's 6th year is a highly likely possibility then we're going to loose out on a year of drafting a QB.

Not to mention that next year we will probably have to give up picks to move up to select the QB prospect of our choosing. This time around we'll have our pick of the liter, and it's a very good liter. Certainly better then last year where now we have three established starters at our disposal, two being prospects for the top of the first when we select at 4.

If the JC experiment fails, then we have another top pick in the 2011 draft. If it doesn't, then we had a winning season...and unless we trade away our first rounder, we can still pick a first-round QB in 2011 for the future.

Originally Posted by Dirtbag359

In the end it all depends on how well they interview and weather or not we can get a clean bill of health from the respective doctors of Clausen and Bradford but this is our chance to finally pair a quality QB prospect with an offensive mastermind. This is the difference between hoping to make the playoffs every year and trying to win championships.

You're still talking about a "quality prospect" that didn't play much his last season in college and has a shoulder injury. In the Elway aftermath, Shanahan had moderate success with Jake Plummer before getting Cutler in the mix.

[Ruhskins]

Originally Posted by Dirtbag359

In that case you're willing to sacrifice a year of development on a rookie QB and a future draft pick that could easily become another starter along the offensive line to trade up for a QB prospect next year. And thats all to select a tackle in a ridiculously deep tackle class. The chance to select quality tackles comes along every year, the chance to select a top QB prospect for a team like us comes once every......5 years.

And even then it's not guaranteed that we'll get said prospect, I mean we tried like hell to trade for Jay Cutler and Mark Sanchez yet came away with neither. So whos to say we could trade up in the future to draft a QB that you'll be comfortable with?

If the draft class is that deep in tackles, then we should trade down and get more picks or if Okung is not available. Honestly I feel this is the best situation, but second best for me would be to take a franchise tackle.

You should also take into consideration that Vinny Cerrato is no longer in charge of our team, so I would hope that this better front office could do a better job in future drafts to get the QB of the future.

I just feel that when you look at our starters from last year in the offensive line:

Samuels = probably done and should retire
Dockery = the only consistent one
Rabach = I personally think he's been terrible
Randy Thomas = injury-ridden and should hang it up
Heyer = Ugh

How could you say let's draft a QB with our #4 and patch this line up? Like I said, to me a trade down is the best scenario, but if not let's take the top tackle to anchor this line.

[Dirtbag59]

Originally Posted by Ruhskins

And if you draft a first round lineman you have the chance to get the next Ryan Clady, D'Brickashaw Ferguson, Jake Long, Joe Thomas, Jeff Otah, Michael Oher etc., etc., etc.

Don't forget Micahel Roos, Marcus McNeil, Jason Peters, Eric Winston, Jeremy Trueblood, Donald Penn, David Stewart, and Matt Light. All guys selected after the first round.

We're also in an era were 7 first round lineman have started for a Super Bowl champion. Yet 8 of the last 10 Super Bowls were won by franchise QB's.

There were only 7, out of a possible 50, drafted in round 1.

Of that, the highest was Jonathon Ogden at number 4 overall in 1996. In fact, he was the only top 10 olineman on a Superbowl winning team this decade.

Only one team, the 2005 Steelers, had mutliple first round o-lineman.

2 of the 7 are Kenyatta Walker (hardly a cornerstone) and Damien Woody

Keep in mind you're also coming off a Super Bowl where the starting Left Tackles were a 5th round pick and an UDFA.

Originally Posted by Ruhskins

We're not talking about picking up guards in the first round, we're talking about picking up a franchise tackle.

And yet there are a handful of quality tackles that were selected in the 2nd round in recent years. This past year for instance there wasn't a whole lot of difference in performance between the first round tackles and the second round guys, in fact I think the second round guys made a much stronger statement this past year then the guys selected in the first round.

Eben Britton, Phil Loadholt, and Sebastian Vollmer all became regular starters by season end and are now staples on their line for years to come. If it hadn't been for Michael Oher the second round tackles would have outperformed their first round counterparts.

Plus we had a franchise tackle for the last 10 years while struggling with an anemic offense that suffered from *surprise* QB problems.

Originally Posted by Ruhskins

If the JC experiment fails, then we have another top pick in the 2011 draft. If it doesn't, then we had a winning season...and unless we trade away our first rounder, we can still pick a first-round QB in 2011 for the future.

Again a one year jump start on developing a blue chip QB prospect is extremely valuable especially when it means you'll probably save draft picks down the line. Trust me we will not be picking in the top 10 for a while, unfortunately I can't promise you that we'll be picking in the bottom 10 either.

Originally Posted by Ruhskins

You're still talking about a "quality prospect" that didn't play much his last season in college and has a shoulder injury. In the Elway aftermath, Shanahan had moderate success with Jake Plummer before getting Cutler in the mix.

The type of accuracy Bradford has is rare so of course I want us to draft him, especially after Shanahan says the number 1 quality he wants in a QB is accuracy. By the way I don't want moderate success, I want a freaking championship. I want Obama leaning into the mic with a football asking "whereeee's Chris Cooley?" I'm tired of hoping we limp into the playoffs. Of course over the next year or two that will be our goal but I want something to look forward to after that.

Originally Posted by Mike Shanahan

"I'm looking forward to it." Shanahan explained what he wants in a quarterback, and Campbell would do well to listen up. "I need a quarterback, No. 1, to be accurate, and No. 2, to be passionate about the game, about the preparation, the study and the execution," said Shanahan. "I've been around a lot of leaders and they do it different ways -- Joe Montana, Steve Young and John Elway. But they all had a deep desire to be the best."

Originally Posted by Ruhskins

You're still talking about a "quality prospect" that didn't play much his last season in college and has a shoulder injury.

Third degree AC joint sprain that was fixed with a 35 minute operation. Compare that to Drew Brees who came off a 360 degree tear.

[tootergray34]

shanaman's going to do what it takes...up to and including drinking virgin blood to decide this draft pick for us.

[Luxorreb]

Take the QB next year if ya can't get him in 2nd round. Otherwise we gotta be dealing some shit soon!

[dmek25]

pain, good read. and some great points. too me, it boils down to being easier to evaluate an offensive lineman as compared to a q-back. im not a huge Campbell supporter. but i do think he would be a decent starter with an NFL caliber line

[djnemo65]

Originally Posted by Dirtbag359

Don't forget Micahel Roos, Marcus McNeil, Jason Peters, Eric Winston, Jeremy Trueblood, Donald Penn, David Stewart, and Matt Light. All guys selected after the first round.

We're also in an era were 7 first round lineman have started for a Super Bowl champion. Yet 8 of the last 10 Super Bowls were won by franchise QB's.



Keep in mind you're also coming off a Super Bowl where the starting Left Tackles were a 5th round pick and an UDFA.



And yet there are a handful of quality tackles that were selected in the 2nd round in recent years. This past year for instance there wasn't a whole lot of difference in performance between the first round tackles and the second round guys, in fact I think the second round guys made a much stronger statement this past year then the guys selected in the first round.

Eben Britton, Phil Loadholt, and Sebastian Vollmer all became regular starters by season end and are now staples on their line for years to come. If it hadn't been for Michael Oher the second round tackles would have outperformed their first round counterparts.

Plus we had a franchise tackle for the last 10 years while struggling with an anemic offense that suffered from *surprise* QB problems.



Again a one year jump start on developing a blue chip QB prospect is extremely valuable especially when it means you'll probably save draft picks down the line. Trust me we will not be picking in the top 10 for a while, unfortunately I can't promise you that we'll be picking in the bottom 10 either.



The type of accuracy Bradford has is rare so of course I want us to draft him, especially after Shanahan says the number 1 quality he wants in a QB is accuracy. By the way I don't want moderate success, I want a freaking championship. I want Obama leaning into the mic with a football asking "whereeee's Chris Cooley?" I'm tired of hoping we limp into the playoffs. Of course over the next year or two that will be our goal but I want something to look forward to after that.





Third degree AC joint sprain that was fixed with a 35 minute operation. Compare that to Drew Brees who came off a 360 degree tear.

Knock out analysis from Dirtbag, well done.

[53Fan]

You have a much better chance of getting a good player at any position in the first round. I don't think that's a surprise. If you draft a QB in the first round you'd better hope he's a good one because it can set your franchise back for years if he isn't.

There are 32 starting QB's in the NFL. In the last 10 years 26 QB's have been drafted in the first round. That's 26 out of 32 positions available.

There are 160 starting o-line positions available and 42 o-linemen have been drafted in the first round in the last 10 years. That's 42 out of 160 available positions.

It's obvious that the percentage of QB's taken in the first round compared to the positions available is pretty high compared to o-linemen. In that case more starting QB's should come from the first round percentage-wise than o-linemen. There are simply more players from the o-line starting in the NFL who were taken in the later rounds because there are more positions to fill. Just because you start on the o-line doesn't mean you're one of the best. I think we're proof of that. So I agree with Paintrain that your chances of getting a quality QB are better in the first round. The same goes with any position.

[over the mountain]

dang, some good back n forth analysis in here.

go skins!