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[FRPLG]

Originally Posted by That Guy

I picked 10th in a 10 man league, so no LJ for me:
1 QB, 2 RBs, 3 WRs, 1 TE, 1 K, 1 DEF, 6 bench

Round - Player (Position)
1. Steven Jackson (RB)
2. Lamont Jordan (RB)
3. Reggie Wayne (WR)
4. Javon Walker (WR)
5. Donald Driver (WR)
6. Tatum Bell (RB)
7. Deangelo Williams (RB)
8. Joseph Addai (RB)
9. Eddie Kennison (WR)
10. Trent Green (QB)
11. Jake Plummer (QB)
12. Chris Cooley (TE)
13. Chad Jackson (WR)
14. Neil Rackers (K)
15. Washington (DEF)

my WR depth is a little flaky and neither QB throws a ton a TDs (hoping javon walker helps plummer a bit and that lelie stops crying too). I think I nailed RB the best i could without having a top 9 pick.

I think this is a rather good draft.
You're living on potential at RB but it is a good job of getting some RBs that can actually help you win.

I disagree on WR. You look solid to me. Wayne is superior. Walker is potentially superior. Driver is a main option and Kennison is a real steal at 9. Short on depth but from 10 you did real good. You can probably trade one of your potentialized backs for solid WR depth in the first few weeks after injuries mount elsewhere in your league.

You're living large at TE, K and D.

I applaud this one.

As an aside. I have done analysis of every league I have ever been in(in football) and have realized that picking the sandwhich is almost a death kill. On average in my leagues(19 of them) the sandwhich pick finishes over 2 standard deviations below the mean and has never finshed better than fourth(14 team league). The only time it wasn't totally a death kill was in a 14 team league where it was split into divisions. The guy who ended up fourth was in the weaker division that had a losing record against the other division. He finished 1st in that division becuase he had no injuries and his divison fell apart.

Translation: sandwhich pick sucks.

[That Guy]

Originally Posted by FRPLG

As an aside. I have done analysis of every league I have ever been in(in football) and have realized that picking the sandwhich is almost a death kill...

Translation: sandwhich pick sucks.

when i hear sandwich I think the #5 pick, but you mean the #10 right? does the #1 tend to win? this year every #1 seems to get LJ, holt/r moss (user choice) and D Davis to start, and usually ends up with shockey in the 5th as well... that's for 10 man leagues though.

I do get first waiver wire and antonio byrant is undrafted. I can drop Wash D and pick him up until i have to make a choice in week 1. i think he's a lock for 800-1k yards even with the crap 49ers. I'm worried about TD production though.

[FRPLG]

Yeah I mean the last pick in the first round.

In fact if you take a total point production from a previous year the 10(or12 or 14 or whichever depending on league size) always has the lowest total.

Just from looking through and doing some subjective analysis I think it has to do with the propensity for the 10 pick to reach. Usually the top RBs are gone by 7 or 8 and then a top WR goes and the top QB. At 10 you have at best a top WR or a second tier RB and inevitably everyone always grabs the RB and immediately puts themselves in a hole. This year and to some degree last year are a little different in that there are a few more good RBs to be had around 10 so maybe the trend is swaying.

[FRPLG]

Originally Posted by That Guy

when i hear sandwich I think the #5 pick, but you mean the #10 right? does the #1 tend to win? this year every #1 seems to get LJ, holt/r moss (user choice) and D Davis to start, and usually ends up with shockey in the 5th as well... that's for 10 man leagues though.

I do get first waiver wire and antonio byrant is undrafted. I can drop Wash D and pick him up until i have to make a choice in week 1. i think he's a lock for 800-1k yards even with the crap 49ers. I'm worried about TD production though.

Will you lose Wass's D if you drop them? Even without knowing your D scoring I would think the dropoff from Wash to whoever else is there might be precipitous. Maybe not though.

[724Skinsfan]

Originally Posted by FRPLG

Will you lose Wass's D if you drop them? Even without knowing your D scoring I would think the dropoff from Wash to whoever else is there might be precipitous. Maybe not though.

Due to lack of turnover's, Washington's D has never yielded very good fantasy production. They are usually middle of the pack (only as far as fantasy goes). If they can produce more turnover's then they could be a top fantasy defense but until then...

[FRPLG]

Originally Posted by 724Skinsfan

Due to lack of turnover's, Washington's D has never yielded very good fantasy production. They are usually middle of the pack (only as far as fantasy goes). If they can produce more turnover's then they could be a top fantasy defense but until then...

Yeah but TOs are pretty variable. I like to take good defenses and hope they simply have a good TO year.

[724Skinsfan]

Originally Posted by FRPLG

Yeah but TOs are pretty variable. I like to take good defenses and hope they simply have a good TO year.

True. This is why I change Defenses quite frequently based on matchups. Rookie/inexperienced QB's = higher probability for INT for any team.

[scowan]

Originally Posted by FRPLG

Yeah I mean the last pick in the first round.

In fact if you take a total point production from a previous year the 10(or12 or 14 or whichever depending on league size) always has the lowest total.

Just from looking through and doing some subjective analysis I think it has to do with the propensity for the 10 pick to reach. Usually the top RBs are gone by 7 or 8 and then a top WR goes and the top QB. At 10 you have at best a top WR or a second tier RB and inevitably everyone always grabs the RB and immediately puts themselves in a hole. This year and to some degree last year are a little different in that there are a few more good RBs to be had around 10 so maybe the trend is swaying.

This is an interesting observation and study FRPLG. I have that sandwich pick this year, because I won our league and we are doing our draft based on last year's finish. However, we are doing a 2 player "non-last year 1st round" Keeper league. (It means you can keep two players from last year who were not picked in the first round). I am keeping Portis and A. Boldin. So I feel like I already have a top 5 RB, but you are right in that I will be looking at "best available" when my picks come. Unfortunately, other non-1st rounders who are being kept are guys like L.J.(total stinker) Steven Jackson, Ronnie Brown, C. Williams. By the time my number 10 pick comes, I will be looking at RBs 10-15, so I may have to go Manning or C. Johnson or somthing with that pick.

[FRPLG]

One thing is for sure. Every draft is totally different. Outside the first round it is hard to predict how a draft will unfold. Knowing your fellow drafters is a big advantage since the name of the game is basically information.

[That Guy]

jacksonville D, cards, etc are untaken. the difference between whatever Ds i'm picking from wont be a big deal. i used the last pick of the draft on wash D, meaning no one else wanted them.

last year the bengals (not a good D) and chicago D took me a long way and both were uncontested week 2 pickups (in different leagues).