V. Jackson "Prepared to Sit out season"

[EARTHQUAKE2689]

Originally Posted by jsarno

Only 1 year...03. I don't think I need to explain that was 7 years ago. I'm not saying Boldin sucks...just not top 10. Top 20!
Actually top 15 more than likely.

He did have 100 receptions in 2005 also. Boldin is a legitimate number 1 WR, Not a 2 masking as a 1

[EARTHQUAKE2689]

Originally Posted by tc2deuce

^ moss is steve smith without the mouth

Moss is good but let's not get carried away here.

[saden1]

Originally Posted by GTripp0012

Telling me that I'm incorrect or that I misremember or whatever doesn't make me less correct. I was just stating facts, re: the Broncos offense. That's how they played it, straight from both game film (first hand -- what I studied, and second hand -- what others study). It's not a disagreement, if you didn't already know this, you're overselling what you know of last year's Broncos offense.

Clearly though, you've seen Marshall's 12.3 YPC average, and thinking that that makes him the next Terrell Owens (14.9 career, 14.5 SF), or Randy Moss (15.6), or Vincent Jackson (17.2) or Jimmy Smith (14.3) or Greg Jennings (16.1). Maybe some day, he will catch Anquan Boldin (12.8).

Marshall is probably top thirty. At least, statistically he is one of the thirty most explosive receivers in football. He ranked 24th, 42nd, and 30th in DYAR the last three years. He ranked 14th in expected points per play last year, but that was mostly due to a high # of targets -- he ranked 32nd in the same category per play. He ranked 19th in 2007 and 37th in 2008.

But for a guy who has never ranked in the top ten in any value statistic in any one season of his career, I'm not sure how anyone can put him in their top ten. For a guy who is at the top of his craft in catches, you'd like him to match those catch totals in something more meaningful. But for Marshall, either he's just not being used properly (by two coaches, including our own), or there's just not much else there.

I think I'd rather have Brandon Marshall on this team than Joey Galloway, because he's a better receiver. But I wouldn't ever give Brandon Marshall more than a one year contract: only fools would hitch themselves to that wagon. He's one of the most immature athletes I've ever seen.

Per Football Outsider's website:

DVOA is still far away from the point where we can use it to represent the value of a player separate from the performance of his ten teammates that are also involved in each play. That means that when we say, "Larry Johnson has a DVOA of 27.6%," what we are really saying is "Larry Johnson, playing in the Kansas City offensive system with the Kansas City offensive line blocking for him and Damon Huard selling the fake when necessary, has a DVOA of 27.6%."

Case in point, Andre Johnson has had only one season with a top 10 DYAR ranking (#1 in 2008) and with his career average of 13.5 he's no match for Vincent "The Invincible" Jackson.

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by saden1

Per Football Outsider's website:



Case in point, Andre Johnson has had only one season with a top 10 DYAR ranking (#1 in 2008) and with his career average of 13.5 he's no match for Vincent "The Invincible" Jackson.

Right, and correctly addressed, but that one season in 2008 isn't meaningless. I don't think Johnson is quite as dominant year-to-year as others do, but he was the best receiver in football in 2008, and if I remember correctly, he was pretty highly rated in 2004 as well.

But EVERY year, Johnson rates above Brandon Marshall. This is because he's better in every way, shape, and form. Like Marshall, he sees a crap ton of targets. And he does a lot more with them.

So I don't think he's less great because he sometimes rates lower in some years. I think Marshall is mediocre because he's very consistently in the middle of the pack despite having the most opportunities. There is no longer any question who Brandon Marshall is.

[GTripp0012]

If you want to directly argue that Brandon Marshall is within 1.3 yards per catch of Andre Johnson, who I rated as the second best receiver in football, I think that's defensible. But when you multiply that over an entire season, you're now looking at 160-230 yards difference (and multiple TDs) over the exact same opportunities. That's probably close to a win/year difference between Johnson and Marshall. And only a handful of wide receivers are worth as much as a win per year. Johnson is likely one.

So, I think, is Vincent Jackson. I think that if we added him, you could add up to a prorated win to our prediction if/when we had him.

[jsarno]

Originally Posted by GTripp0012

Telling me that I'm incorrect or that I misremember or whatever doesn't make me less correct. I was just stating facts, re: the Broncos offense. That's how they played it, straight from both game film (first hand -- what I studied, and second hand -- what others study). It's not a disagreement, if you didn't already know this, you're overselling what you know of last year's Broncos offense.

Maybe I am unsure as to what you are really trying to say, because it's common knowledge that they moved Eddie Royal around all season and he was extremely ineffective.

But for a guy who has never ranked in the top ten in any value statistic in any one season of his career, I'm not sure how anyone can put him in their top ten.

Sorry, you are incorrect again sir. He was 5th in 07 in catches, 3rd in 08 and 3rd in 09. He was 6th in 07 in rec. yards, and 7th in 08. He was also 7th in rec tds last year. He was 7th in 07, and 6th in 08 in rec yards per game. He aso ranked 9th in 07 and 9th in 08 in yards per touch. (ps- a wr does not have to be explosive to be effective, nor does YPC truly show explosiveness. Example: Welker has a 10.9 career YPC, and 10.7 with the patriots...last year he had only an 11.0 ypc, while Marshall had a 11.1 last year and a 12.3 for his career...so according to your theory, Marshall is more explosive than Welker? Obviously that would not be the case, just showing the hole in your thoughts.)

For a guy who is at the top of his craft in catches, you'd like him to match those catch totals in something more meaningful. But for Marshall, either he's just not being used properly (by two coaches, including our own), or there's just not much else there.

Just an FYI, his YPC was 12.83 with Shanny, 11.1 with McDaniels.

He's one of the most immature athletes I've ever seen.

I will not argue his maturity level, but that doesn't make him any less effective on the field. I think you are ranking him so low because of your distain for his attitude.

[jsarno]

Just an FYI, here is a list of the top YPC last year:
1- Mike Wallace
2- DeSean Jackson
3- Mohamed Massaquoi
t-4- Vincent Jackson
t-4- Malcolm Floyd
6- Chris Chambers
t-7- Patrick Crayton
t-7- Hakeem Nicks
9-Kenny Britt
10- Greg Jennings

The fact that Massaquoi is even on this list makes me laugh considering he had the worst targeted to reception ratio last year.
Throw in Chris Chambers who was a cast off in San Diego, and Patrick Crayton who luckily just found a home recently and this list clearly does not represent great wr's. YPC is solely how they are used, not a barometer of how good the wr is.

[jsarno]

Originally Posted by GTripp0012

Agree with you on Boldin. And: he has more yards per game, more yards per catch, more catches per attempt, than Marshall, who you have in your top five.

Unless Marshall has vastly improved, Boldin>Marshall. And, again, I agree with you that Boldin probably is (isn't?) a top 15 receiver. They are typematically similar, though.

At least we can agree on something. LOL

[jsarno]

Originally Posted by EARTHQUAKE2689

He did have 100 receptions in 2005 also. Boldin is a legitimate number 1 WR, Not a 2 masking as a 1

When he had 102 receptions in 05, Fitzgerald had 103. Boldin is not the same as he was when he was a rookie. He would make a great 1b, but he is not a true 1a IMO. Don't get me wrong, he's a top 20, maybe top 15 option, I completely disagree he's a top 10 is all.

[FRPLG]

jsarno...you don't know what a "value" stat is do you?

[jsarno]

Originally Posted by GTripp0012

Right, and correctly addressed, but that one season in 2008 isn't meaningless. I don't think Johnson is quite as dominant year-to-year as others do, but he was the best receiver in football in 2008, and if I remember correctly, he was pretty highly rated in 2004 as well.

In 08, Andre Johnson was targeted 170 times, and had 8 tds. How would that make him the best wr in football in your eyes considering he had 115 catches?

But EVERY year, Johnson rates above Brandon Marshall. This is because he's better in every way, shape, and form. Like Marshall, he sees a crap ton of targets. And he does a lot more with them.

Last year Johnson was targeted 171 times (17 MORE times than Marshall) but had the exact same amount of catches...101. Johnson had an average of 59.06% receptions per target. Marshall's average was 65.58%. Also, Johnson had 9 tds last year and Marshall had 10. So again, sorry to say, you are wrong.
It is widely known that Andre Johnson is the best WR in the game, and that's not just fans opinion, that's NFL personel opinion. Yet Johnson only averages 13.5 yards per reception, and he's never had a 10 td season. In fact, he has 42 tds in 102 career starts. That's a TD every 2.43 starts, while Marshall has 25 tds in 45 career starts and that's an average of a TD every 1.8 starts.

So I don't think he's less great because he sometimes rates lower in some years. I think Marshall is mediocre because he's very consistently in the middle of the pack despite having the most opportunities. There is no longer any question who Brandon Marshall is.

Obviously the stats you use to rank WR's are not correct. I seriously doubt someone that is "middle of the pack" like you suggest gets a 5 year 50 million contract as well. That just doesn't add up.

[jsarno]

Originally Posted by FRPLG

jsarno...you don't know what a "value" stat is do you?

Yes I do, I just hold no value in it. I've already pointed out holes.

Look at it this way, here are Johnson's last 2 seasons:
08- Targets, 170, 115 rec, 1575 yds, 13.7 YPC, 8 td.
09- targets, 171, 101 rec, 1569 yds, 15.5 ypc, 9 tds.

How are those two seasons so vastly different in terms of value?

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by jsarno

Maybe I am unsure as to what you are really trying to say, because it's common knowledge that they moved Eddie Royal around all season and he was extremely ineffective.



Sorry, you are incorrect again sir. He was 5th in 07 in catches, 3rd in 08 and 3rd in 09. He was 6th in 07 in rec. yards, and 7th in 08. He was also 7th in rec tds last year. He was 7th in 07, and 6th in 08 in rec yards per game. He aso ranked 9th in 07 and 9th in 08 in yards per touch. (ps- a wr does not have to be explosive to be effective, nor does YPC truly show explosiveness. Example: Welker has a 10.9 career YPC, and 10.7 with the patriots...last year he had only an 11.0 ypc, while Marshall had a 11.1 last year and a 12.3 for his career...so according to your theory, Marshall is more explosive than Welker? Obviously that would not be the case, just showing the hole in your thoughts.)



Just an FYI, his YPC was 12.83 with Shanny, 11.1 with McDaniels.



I will not argue his maturity level, but that doesn't make him any less effective on the field. I think you are ranking him so low because of your distain for his attitude.

There's no hole dude, Marshall is more explosive than Wes Welker. He, in a similar role, proved to be a bit more dangerous after the catch than Welker. Welker also catches a higher % of the passes thrown to him and converts more first downs than Marshall. He's a better player than Marshall, who I believe was more explosive as demonstrated by yards per catch.

And I still don't know where Wes Welker would rank in NFL receiver hierarchy. He's the best player in the history of the slot receiver position, but that's not exactly a premium position -- it's usually the most replaceable receiver. You can only put a corner on that spot by being in a 5 DB package, and usually, that corner is a reserve with little help. It's a tough position for a defense to take away, which is why so many guys are so successful there (though none as successful as Welker). Heck, Randle El had two GREAT years in the slot for us, but we figured we could do better than him.

Marshall had his best year in 2009, by most measures (TD's and TD per pass particularly), so while you bring a good point that Shanahan used him as more of an explosive downfield player than McD did, I could argue that McDaniels used him to the best of his abilities. And then, with Eddie Royal in the fold, that was deemed to be a fairly replaceable contribution.

You are correct on the explosive vs. effective thing, but Marshall has never been really effective in his career. He was used differently under two different coaches, with a similar aggregate result.

Catches aren't anyone's idea of a value stat, see: Mike Furrey, 2006. Or for some more circular logic, any Brandon Marshall season. Yards per touch is a lot better for a value metric: yards are necessarily contested at least, unlike catches. But yards per touch is just yards per catch (which we've been using) without rushing attempts. At that point, you're combining things just to combine things to change results.

[FRPLG]

Originally Posted by jsarno

Yes I do, I just hold no value in it. I've already pointed out holes.

Look at it this way, here are Johnson's last 2 seasons:
08- Targets, 170, 115 rec, 1575 yds, 13.7 YPC, 8 td.
09- targets, 171, 101 rec, 1569 yds, 15.5 ypc, 9 tds.

How are those two seasons so vastly different in terms of value?

Don't mistake my question for a challenge. I was simply asking if you knew what Tripp meant when he mentioned "value" stats. You cited a different type of stat and I suspected that you didn't. I also know what Tripp is going to think about the stats you've given. I'll let him address them.

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by jsarno

In 08, Andre Johnson was targeted 170 times, and had 8 tds. How would that make him the best wr in football in your eyes considering he had 115 catches?



Last year Johnson was targeted 171 times (17 MORE times than Marshall) but had the exact same amount of catches...101. Johnson had an average of 59.06% receptions per target. Marshall's average was 65.58%. Also, Johnson had 9 tds last year and Marshall had 10. So again, sorry to say, you are wrong.
It is widely known that Andre Johnson is the best WR in the game, and that's not just fans opinion, that's NFL personel opinion. Yet Johnson only averages 13.5 yards per reception, and he's never had a 10 td season. In fact, he has 42 tds in 102 career starts. That's a TD every 2.43 starts, while Marshall has 25 tds in 45 career starts and that's an average of a TD every 1.8 starts.



Obviously the stats you use to rank WR's are not correct. I seriously doubt someone that is "middle of the pack" like you suggest gets a 5 year 50 million contract as well. That just doesn't add up.

You're difficult to argue with because you attack a bunch of different evidences provided for my point with no actual semblance of a counter argument. You also started out with a bunch of incorrect premises (including, but not limited to, a "knowledge" of the Broncos offense you proved not to have).

You have one common strategy: discredit what I am saying because I don't agree with you. Problem is, I don't even think you comprehend what I am saying. Either that, or you know I am right, and want to be argumentative anyway. Wouldn't be the first time.

Marshall's catch rate WAS a lot higher last year. This, of course, was a product of his role. Or at least about half of it was. Marshall did have, by his standards, a pretty nice year last year. Johnson I think was down a little from his career expectation (but still dominant -- and above Marshall). Marshall, for the first time in his career, was more efficient at turning targets into touchdowns. The difference, ironically, is almost exclusively a product of the Redskins blowing multiple coverages giving him two of his three "long" TDs of the season. Marshall usually isn't that open downfield, I can assure you (not to disparage the quality of those routes, but the Redskins blew a lot of long coverages last year...they simply weren't good back there).

Anyway, those are the facts of the situation. And we already pointed out above that when receivers are getting 150-175 targets in a year, the difference between 12.3 yards per catch and 13.5 yards per catch is A LOT. Over 16 games, it's close to a win. If you say Johnson is the best, and we can agree that there's almost a win difference per year between them in their current roles, I can agree to that. That seems in line with the available evidence.

And I can easily name 20 current receivers more valuable than Marshall. Johnson, and many others, would be on that list.

I think you overrate Andre Johnson a little bit, he's probably not the very best receiver in football, but he's certainly in the discussion and is probably one of the most difficult matchups in all of sports. And he's proven that on the field.